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Analysis of HDFC, Icici Opening and Closing Maximum Share Price
Analysis of HDFC, Icici Opening and Closing Maximum Share Price
SHUBHAM SAHU
SHALU GOLYAN
SHIWANGEE SINGH
SHAMBHAVI GUPTA
SUNNY ANAND
SHAIWAL BAJPAI
The project is dedicated to present the data analysis and interpretation of BSE Max. opening
and closing share prices and 02 FMCG max. opening and closing shares (M/s ITC & M/s
HUL). We have used the secondary data for this report. Data is taken from BSE SENSEX
site. There are different type of statistical tools used for the analysis of the data and interpret
the results of BSE & FNCG company data. Some of the descriptive tools used in this report
are; mean, median, standard deviation, standard error, coefficient variance, range, skewness
and kurtosis for the proper analysis.
Besides, Coefficient correlation (r), coefficient determination (R2) and adjusted R2 employed
for quantifying the effect of opening and closing BSE stock prices.
Based on the hypothesis developed and analyse we have also used one sample and two
sample testing hypothesis.
INTRODUCTION
ABOUT HDFC
HDFC Bank Limited is an Indian banking and money related
administrations organization headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra. It has
104,154 changeless workers starting at 30 June 2019. HDFC Bank is India's
biggest private segment moneylender by resources. It is the biggest bank in
India by market capitalization as of February 2016. It was positioned 60th in
2019 BrandZ Top 100 Most Valuable Global Brands.
In 1994 HDFC Bank was fused, with its enrolled office in Mumbai,
Maharashtra, India. Its first corporate office and a full administration
branch at Sandoz House, Worli were initiated by the then Union Finance
Minister, Manmohan Singh.
As of March 31, 2019, the Bank's conveyance system was at 5,103 branches
crosswise over 2,748 urban areas. The bank additionally introduced 4.30
LacsPOS terminals and issued 235.7 Lacs check cards and 85.4 Lacs Visas in
FY 2017.
Items and administrations
ABOUT ICICI:
ICICI Bank Limited is an Indian global banking and budgetary
administrations organization headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra with
its enrolled office in Vadodara, Gujarat. Starting at 2018, ICICI Bank is the
second biggest bank in India as far as resources and market capitalisation. It
offers a wide scope of banking items and money related administrations for
corporate and retail clients through an assortment of conveyance diverts and
concentrated backups in the territories of speculation banking, life, non-
disaster protection, investment and resource the executives. As on March 31,
2018, the bank has a system of 4867 branches and 14367 ATMs crosswise
over India and has a nearness in 17 nations including India.
ICICI Bank was built up by the Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation
of India (ICICI), an Indian money related foundation, as an entirely
possessed backup in 1994. The parent organization was framed in 1955 as a
joint-adventure of the World Bank, India's open area banks and open
division insurance agencies to give undertaking financing to Indian industry.
The bank was established as the Industrial Credit and Investment
Corporation of India Bank, before it changed its name to the abridged ICICI
Bank. The parent organization was later converged with the bank.
METHODOLOGY
Methodology adopted for this project is descriptive and the data used is secondary data. Data
for HDFC and ICICI max. opening and closing share price is taken from BSE SENSEX
site.These stock prices are taken from date 8 may 2019 to 31 july 2019. To accomplish the
objective and perception we have used descriptive analysis tool from excel and other data
analysis tool . These tools are useful in interpreting the analysis.
STATISTICAL MEAN
In mathematics and statistics, the term arithmetic mean is preferred over simply "mean"
because it helps to differentiate between other means such as geometric and harmonic mean.
Statistical mean is the most common term for calculating the mean of a statistical
distribution.
The statistical mean has a wide range of applicability in various types of experimentation.
This type of calculation eliminates random errors and helps to derive a more accurate result
than a result derived from a single experiment.
The statistical mean can also be used to interpret statistical data. Some important properties
make statistical mean very useful for measuring central tendency.
CENTRE OF DISPERSION
STANDARD DEVIATION
It is the quantity which shows by how much the data of a group differ from the mean.
SKEWNESS
KURTOSIS
T-TESTING
T test is used as a hypothesis testing tool, which allows testing of an assumption applicable
to a population. A t-test looks at the t-statistic, the t-distribution values and the degrees of
freedom to determine the probability of difference between two sets of data.
PAIRED T-TEST
ANOVA
HDFC:
HDFC
CLOSE open HIGH LOW
MEDIAN shows the middle value of any data. Here the median for the opening of the
HDFC is 2182.75 and closing for the same is 2183.05 and from the descriptive analysis it is
almost clear that there is no substantial difference between mean and median so it can be said
there is no outlier in the data. So, in this set of data we should consider mean as the measure
of average for both opening and closing stock.
SKEWNESSof the opening stock price is -1.104960166 and for the closing stock is
-1.062180447 which is almost same to each other and there is no substantial difference
between both of them, and their skewness is less than 0 so the graph will be, left tailed graph.
KURTOSISof the opening stock price of the HDFC is positive that is 0.676023883 and for
the closing it is 0.824406012 which is also positive in number. As these are positive so the
graph will be peaked that is leptokurtic.
ICICI
ICICI
CLOSE OPEN HIGH LOW
ICICI had an average opening price valued at 217.6683 and an average closing price of
217.8416667 and between this period their average high price was of 221.0516667.
The median for the opening of ICICI is 218.975 and closing for the same is 219 and from
the descriptive analysis it is almost clear that there is no substantial difference between mean
and median so it can be said there is no outlier in the data. So, in this set of data we should
consider mean as the measure of average for both opening and closing stock.
STANDARD DEVIATIONof the opening of this set of data is 7.655944 and same for
the closing stock is 8.777002725 which indicates that how the numbers are variable within
each other.
SKEWNESSof the opening stock price is -0.78297 and for the closing stock is
-0.999671901 which is almost same to each other and there is no substantial difference
between both of them, and their skewness is less than 0 so the graph will be, left tailed graph.
KURTOSISof the opening stock price of the ICICI is positive that is 0.674511 and for the
closing it is also positive in number i.e. 0.383935074. As these are positive so the graph will
be peaked that is laptokurtic.
APPLYING HYPOTHESIS
HDFC
GRAPH
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFENCE BETWEEN OPEN AND
CLOSE PRICE OF HDFC BANK
PRICE OPEN
Mean 2164.743 2164.48
Variance 10206.41 10449.58
Observations 60 60
Pooled Variance 10327.99
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
df 118
t Stat 0.014192
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.49435
t Critical one-tail 1.65787
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.9887
t Critical two-tail 1.980272
THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE OPEN AND CLOSE PRICE
OF HDFC BANK
REGRESSION MODEL TO PREDICT THE CLOSE PRICE BASED ON
OPEN AND HIGH PRICE AND LOW PRICE
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.982492749
R Square 0.965292003
Adjusted R Square 0.963432646
Standard Error 1.678390462
Observations 60
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 4387.359139 1462.453 519.1537 8.06136E-41
Residual 56 157.7516944 2.816995
Total 59 4545.110833
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept -5.639929832 6.217891303 -0.90705 0.368268 -18.09586278 6.816003121 -18.09586278 6.816003121
OPEN -0.489320709 0.093840504 -5.21439 2.77E-06 -0.677305826 -0.301335591 -0.677305826 -0.301335591
HIGH 0.859823304 0.090874337 9.461673 3.27E-13 0.677780133 1.041866476 0.677780133 1.041866476
LOW 0.653002151 0.096454232 6.770073 8.29E-09 0.459781107 0.846223195 0.459781107 0.846223195
Equation- Ŷ=A+B1X1+B2X2+B3X3
Adjusted R2=0.96 i.e. 96% variation in the share price can be explained by
our regression model rest 4% variation is due to some other factor
X1:open
P value= 2.77*10-6<0.05
P value=3.27*10-13 <0.05
P value=8.29*10-9<0.05
Ŷ=A+B1X1+B2X2+B3X3
Predict shares when open price is Rs200, high price is Rs 230 and low price
is Rs 180 and also gives 95% prediction interval.
Point prediction =
5.6399298320554-0.489320709*(200) +0.859823304*(230)
+0.653002151*(180) = 223.1
The BSE Sensex of HDFC and ICICI for given duration of 8th may2019 to 31st
July 2019 , were assumed as even flow of stock price But in the real world ,The
fluctuations can be seen. There may be various factors which affects the share
price. By the share price, we will not be able to reach to any suggestions for
these factors. We had measured kurtosis, skewness, standard deviation, central
tendency, hypothesis, regressions. We have reached to all the interpretation
according to the result of testing.
Annexure:
Open Close*
Mean 36403. 36316.
06 29
Variance 212175 209533
5 1
Observations 102 102
Pearson 0.9827
Correlation 61
Hypothesized 0
Mean Difference
Df 101
t Stat 3.2481
34
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.0007
89
t Critical one-tail 1.6600
81
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.0015
78
t Critical two-tail 1.9837
31
Open Close
Price Price
Mean 290.905 289.862
9 3
Variance 227.775 222.654
4 1
Observations 102 102
Pearson Correlation 0.96696
8
Hypothesized Mean 0
Difference
Df 101
t Stat 2.72995
8
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.00373
7
t Critical one-tail 1.66008
1
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.00747
5
t Critical two-tail 1.98373
1