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Ch-05 (English-2019)
Ch-05 (English-2019)
Ch-05 (English-2019)
CHAPTER FIVE
MONETARY MANAGEMENT AND FINANCIAL MARKET
DEVELOPMENT
The monetary policy pursued during FY2018-19 aimed at attaining expected economic
growth and limiting inflation within tolerable level through emphasis on inclusive,
investment and employment supportive and environment-friendly green initiatives. The
monetary policy strategy for FY2018-19 was targeted to maintain an annual average
inflation rate below 5.6 percent. To keep inflation within desired level the Monetary Policy
Statement (MPS) for FY2018-19 set targets for broad money and reserve money growth at
12.0 percent and 7.0 percent respectively. However, at the end of February 2019, broad
money and reserve money growth stood at 10.37 percent and 7.69 percent against 9.78
percent and 10.09 percent increase in the same month of the previous fiscal year
respectively. At the end of February 2019, the growth of internal debt and private sector
credit growth stood at 13.74 percent and 12.54 percent, respectively, against 14.22 percent
and 18.49 percent at the same time of the previous year respectively. On the other hand, the
interest rate spread slid down to 4.06 percent at the end of February 2019 from 4.37 percent
of February 2018 due to the continuous rise in deposit rate and the continuous reduction in
lending rate. The volume of the broad money is increasing gradually in the ratio of GDP,
which stood at 51.57 percent at the end of FY2017-18. Besides emphasizing on financial
inclusion a broad range of activities to bring a large number of financially excluded people
under the umbrella of conventional financial services have been undertaken by the
Government. In the FY2018-19, both stock markets (Dhaka Stock Exchange and
Chattogram Stock Exchange) noticed some unrest, but overall both the price index and
market capitalisation increased. For ensuring stable and smooth operation of the capital
market and restoring the confidence of general investors several restructuring activities were
carried out during this period.
FY2018-19 and the ongoing implementation 2019 over February 2018 owing to strong
of macro-prudential policies are aimed at public sector credit growth, though private
providing adequate supply of quality credit to sector credit growth remained moderate.
support the government's growth and inflation Moderate credit growth in private sector is
targets, while promoting domestic and the confluence of both demand and supply
external financial stability amid the shifting factors, including the base effect from a high
global and domestic risk considerations. growth in the previous year, liquidity impact
from slow growth in net foreign assets, some
The monetary policy stances for FY2018-19 rigidity in interest rate flexibility and a go
was formulated with the target of keeping slow policy of the investors in the pre-
inflation below 5.6 percent as well as election time.
attaining GDP growth rate at 7.8 percent.
Aided by favorable financing conditions and Despite food inflation being moderated,
fiscal policy supports both public and private balancing both inflation and output risks,
sector investments also expected to remain Bangladesh Bank has decided to keep repo
buoyant in FY2018-19. Supported by and reverse repo rate unchanged at 6.00 and
moderating food inflation, twelve month 4.75 percent respectively due to elevated
inflation followed a declining trend during inflation expectation, exchange rate pressure,
July-February in FY2018-19, reached at 5.49 and rising global interest rates. Reflecting the
percent in February 2019 from 5.78 percent in prevailing liquidity conditions and
June 2018, although non-food inflation moderating credit demand, weighted average
remained uptrend due to steady rise in oil and lending and deposit rates followed the
commodity prices. downward trend in the period of July-
February in FY2018-19. From the latest
For FY2018-19, broad money (M2), reserve available data, weighted average lending and
money (RM) and net domestic assets (NDA) deposit rates stood at 9.49 and 5.34 percent
have been projected to annually increased by respectively in February 2019 which were
12.0, 7.0 and 16.8 percent respectively; while, 9.95 and 5.50 percent respectively in June
growth in net foreign assets (NFA) has been 2018.
projected to declined by 3.4 percent. Most of
the key monetary and credit aggregates Money and Credit Situation
remained below the programed paths during
July to February in current fiscal year. Broad Trends in Monetary Aggregates
money growth stood at 10.37 percent in At the end of February in FY2018-19, the
February 2019 over February 2018 against year-on-year reserve money and narrow
the programed level of 12.00 percent that can money (M1) have decreased, however broad
be attributed to high growth in NDA. NDA money (M2) have increased compared to the
grew robustly at 13.42 percent in February same month of the previous fiscal year. Due
to significant decrease in the growth of compared to FY2016-17. Table 5.1 shows the
currency notes and coins with the public as growth trends in monetary aggregate from
well as demand deposit, the year-on-year FY2012-13 to FY2018-19.
growth of M1 declined in FY2017-18
The growth of domestic credit stood at 14.70 In FY2017-18 Reserve money stood at
percent in FY2017-18 compared to 11.16 Tk.2,33,743 crore, which was Tk.2,24,659
percent in FY2016-17. Up to February 2019, crore in FY2016-17. Reserve money growth
domestic credit increased by 13.74 percent, was 4.04 percent in FY2017-18 compared to
which is lower than 14.22 percent growth in the 16.28 percent in FY2016-17. Up to
the same month of the previous fiscal year. February 2019, reserve money increased by
Of which private sector credit growth stood at 7.69 percent compared to the 10.09 percent
12.54 percent in February 2019 against 18.49 increment in the same month of the previous
percent in the same month of the previous fiscal year. On the other hand, at the end of
fiscal year. The net credit to the government FY2017-18, net foreign assets of Bangladesh
increased by 23.21 percent at the end of Bank increased by 0.59 percent compared to
February 2019 compared to 19.73 percent the 15.14 percent at the end of previous fiscal
decrease in same month of the previous year. year. Up to February 2019, the net foreign
At the end of February 2019, the share of assets of Bangladesh Bank decreased by 1.28
government (excluding others public sector) percent compared to the 5.57 percent
and private sector credit to total domestic increment in the same month of the previous
credit stood at 8.55 percent and 89.26 percent fiscal year. Components and sources of
respectively. reserve money and its changes over time have
been shown in Table 5.3 and Table 5.4
respectively.
At the end of February 2019, claims on compared to reserve money. At the end of
government sector (net) increased by February 2019, money multiplier stood at
Tk.6,292.40 crore compared to Tk.7,548.70 4.994. At the same time, the ratios of money
crore increase in the same month of the multiplier as reserve-deposit ratio stood to
previous fiscal year. At the same time, Claims 0.081 and currency-deposit ratio stood to
on deposit money banks (DMBs) increased by 0.144.
Tk.1,307.90 crore compared to Tk.105.10
Income Velocity of Money
crore decrease in the same month of the
previous fiscal year. Claims on other public Income velocity of money is showing a
sector increased by Tk.141.50 crore declining trend over the decades excluding a
compared to Tk.339.80 crore increase in the hardly increase from 1.94 in FY2016-17 to
same month of the previous fiscal year. 2.03 in FY2017-18. Table 5.5 shows the
trends of income velocity of money and broad
Money Multiplier money as a percent of GDP from FY2005-06
Money multiplier increased to 4.75 in to FY2017-18. Movement of broad money as
FY2017-18 as compared to 4.52 in FY2016- a percent of GDP has been shown in Figure
17 due to higher growth of broad money 5.3.
Non-bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs) districts of the country. Total paid up capital
and reserve of these financial institutions
Non-Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs) are stood at Tk.11,560.63 crore as on December
playing a significant role in providing funding 2018. Of which paid up capital, total asset
in different sectors like industrial, and total deposit were Tk.8,443.36 crore,
commercial, housing, transportation and IT Tk.95,716.32 crore and Tk.48,211.60 crore,
sectors of the country. At present 34 licensed respectively. Total outstanding loan/lease was
non-bank financial institutions are working in Tk.68,844.76 crore and total classified
the country. These NBFIs have a wide loan/lease stood at Tk.5,464.25 crore (7.94
network through 271 branches and they are percent of total loan/lease). To ensure
operating in Dhaka city along with other transparency and minimise risk of financial
literacy campaign among school going The project will be implemented through
children throughout the country. BB also following three major components over the
organized ‘School Banking Conferences’ project term:
and ‘School Banking Fair’ in different 1. Strengthening Financial Market
parts of Bangladesh. Infrastructure
This component aims to improve financial
6. BB is implementing a number of IT infrastructure of the country further,
quantifiable as well as qualitative targets especially focusing on: (a) development
on financial inclusion. Bangladesh Bank of Payment and Settlement System to
is preparing a Comprehensive 'National ensure a large scale shift to electronic
Financial Inclusion Strategy' in payments in Bangladesh, specially of the
collaboration with the Ministry of Finance Government payments, (b) expanding and
and other related organizations. modernizing Credit Information Bureau
7. BB is working with a new project named (CIB) by including credit information of
‘Second Small and Medium Sized the Microfinance Sector and increasing
Enterprise Development Project (SMEDP- reliability of credit reporting system, (c)
2)’ jointly funded by ADB and GoB. strengthening the systems of BFIU by
Under this project credit facilities are integrating with systems of other
being provided to small and women stakeholders thereby leading to safety and
entrepreneurs residing outside of Dhaka integrity of the financial systems and (d)
and Chittagong Metropolitan Area Which strengthening the IT Governance and IT
will enhance the scope of access to management of the Bangladesh Bank to
finance for these groups. lay a robust and secured financial
platform for advanced financial market.
Banking, Monetary and Credit Policy One main data center in BB head office
Reforms and one near data center at Bangladesh
Bank Training Academy, Mirpur have
Reforms in Bangladesh Bank
been built. A Disaster Recovery Center is
With a view to improving financial market under construction at BB Rajshahi Office.
infrastructure, regulatory and oversight
capacity of Bangladesh Bank and access to 2. Strengthening Regulatory and
long term financing for manufacturing sector Supervisory Capacity
in Bangladesh for ensuring stability and The project expects to provide technical
greater resilience of the financial sector, the assistance towards the development and
Financial Sector Support Project (FSSP) is adoption of the comprehensive risk-based
being implemented with the assistance of integrated approach to banking regulation
International Development Association and supervision, which would include
(IDA). related documentation and training.
Company Act 1991, Financial Reporting Act- With view to strengthening and updating
2015 and the Basel Committee. the risk management activities of the banks
Reforms in State Owned Commercial on line with the changing environment,
Banks ‘Risk Management Guidelines for Banks’
introduced in 2012 has been revised and
The state owned commercial banks (except issued.
Bangladesh Development Bank Ltd) are
being monitored under the MoU in FY2018- In order to ensure sound risk management
19 similar to previous years. Under the MoU practices in the banks, instructions
signed with Sonali, Janata, Agrani, Rupali regarding specifying roles and
and Basic Bank Ltd along with a view to responsibilities of the Board of Directors,
improving the quality of asset management, Board Risk Management Committee,
ensuring the efficiency of liability Executive Risk Management Committee
management, controlling the operational and Chief Risk Officer (CRO) along with
expenses, improving the quality of risk restructuring the risk management
management and internal control system, framework of banks have been included
reduce high cost deposit (term deposit) to the in the said guideline.
desired level. Under the latest MoU certain
conditions have been imposed in purchasing Besides, initiatives have been taken to
FDBP (Foreign Direct Bill of Purchase) and establish a well organised Risk Appetite
in creating forced loan/PAD/Demand loan by Framework for balancing between the
the banks to improve the asset quality of the risks taken and business targets to be
banks. Bangladesh Bank has also been achieved by the banks.
regularly monitoring the implementation
status of MoU against the certain targets fixed Development of Payment System
up therein.
To establish a public interest oriented modern
Money and Financial Market Reforms payment system in Bangladesh some
initiatives such as - formalise the ‘Strategy
In order to improve the standards of existing
Paper for Bangladesh Bank’ payment system,
banks of Bangladesh to international level
establishment of ‘Bangladesh Automated
through competitive management and to
Clearing House (BACH)’ and manage its
stabilise and strengthen the financial base of
overall activities, approval of Mobile
the overall banking system, a number of
Financial Services and appropriate oversight,
initiatives including restructuring of money
development of ‘National Payment Switch’
and financial market have been taken by
and to establish e-payment system, formalize
Bangladesh Bank and the implementation of
the rules and regulatory infrastructure related
the same is going on.
to payment system, start Electronic Fund
In the 2nd Follow-up Report of Mutual BFIU has continued its effort to arrange
capacity building programs on combating
Evaluation of Bangladesh, APG has
money laundering and terrorist financing
upgraded the FATF recommendation 19
for enhancing the awareness of the agencies like APG, EGMONT Group,
officials of reporting organizations FATF and BIMSTEC to strengthen the
including banks. international endeavor of combating
money laundering and terrorist financing.
BFIU is maintaining liaison and
coordination with different international
End of No. of Listed IPO Issued Capital Market Turnover CSE All Share
Period Securities (Tk. in crore) Capitalisation Value Price Index
(with MF& Bonds) (Tk. in crore) (Tk. in crore)
2005-06 213 19 6375.02 19555.17 1143.91 2879.19
2006-07 219 10 8225.17 39926.82 3437.74 5194.76
2007-08 231 14 10314.08 77774.28 8016.21 9050.56
2008-09 246 18 14246.55 97494.82 12518.25 10477.67
2009-10 232 23 20677.39 224176.78 21711.23 18116.05
2010-11 220 19 30155.33 225977.78 32168.23 17059.53
2011-12 251 15 37527.49 187817.14 13485.49 13736.42
2012-13 266 15 42338.09 191907.03 10198.52 12738.23
2013-14 276 13 47083.97 229772.82 10218.27 13766.23
2014-15 292 20 50130.63 257146.40 9648.00 14097.17
2015-16 298 11 56607.60 249684.89 7747.16 13623.07
2016-17 303 09 60657.21 311324.29 11807.52 15580.37
2017-18 312 12 65405.91 312352.17 10985.06 16558.50
2018-19* 323 10 68214.13 343200.99 63226.95 17473.48
Source: Chattogram Stock Exchange.
Note: *Up to February 2019
Figure 5.6: CSE Market Capitalisation and All Share Price Index