Waverley Stage 2 Main Report 351663 02 D

Transport Assessment
Scenarios for Distribution of Housing Growth -

Stage 2 Report
February 2016
Waverley Borough Council

351663 ITD 02 D
P:\Southampton\ITW\Projects\351663 Waverley Borough
Council\Outgoing\Waverley Report 351663-02-D.docx
February 2016
Scenarios for Distribution of Housing Growth -
Stage 2 Report
Scenarios for Distribution of Housing Growth - Stage 2 Report
February 2016
Waverley Borough Council
The Burys
Godalming
Surrey
GU7 1HR
Mott MacDonald, Stoneham Place, Stoneham Lane, Southampton, SO50 9NW, United Kingdom
T +44 (0)23 8062 8800 F +44 (0)23 8064 7251 W www.mottmac.com
Issue and revision record
Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description

st
A June 2015 S Finney N Richardson N Richardson 1 issue
B July 2015 S Finney A Palmer N Richardson Addresses comments
C November 2015 S Finney P Rapa N Richardson Includes additional scenarios
D February 2016 S Finney P Rapa N Richardson Addresses comments
Information class: Standard
This document is issued for the party which commissioned it We accept no responsibility for the consequences of this
and for specific purposes connected with the above-captioned document being relied upon by any other party, or being used
project only. It should not be relied upon by any other party or for any other purpose, or containing any error or omission
used for any other purpose. which is due to an error or omission in data supplied to us by
other parties.
This document contains confidential information and

proprietary intellectual property. It should not be shown to
other parties without consent from us and from the party
which commissioned it.
351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

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Contents
Chapter Title Page
Executive Summary i
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Background ________________________________________________________________________ 1
1.2 Scope of Work ______________________________________________________________________ 1
2 Peak Hour Demand 2

2.1 Manual Classified Counts _____________________________________________________________ 2
2.2 Automatic Traffic Counts ______________________________________________________________ 6
2.3 Journey Time Surveys ________________________________________________________________ 9
3 Future Traffic Demand 12

3.1 2031 Base Case ___________________________________________________________________ 12
3.2 2031 with 1,800 houses at Dunsfold ____________________________________________________ 13
3.3 2031 with 2,600 and 3,400 houses at Dunsfold ___________________________________________ 19
3.4 2031 with 909 Additional houses at Cranleigh ____________________________________________ 24
4 Capacity Modelling 27
4.1 Methodology ______________________________________________________________________ 27
4.2 Shalford Roundabout________________________________________________________________ 27
4.3 Bramley Roundabout ________________________________________________________________ 28
4.4 A281/A322 Onslow Street Gyratory ____________________________________________________ 29
4.5 A281/B2130 Elmbridge Road /Dunsfold Road Signals ______________________________________ 30
4.6 Increased Link Flows ________________________________________________________________ 31
5 Road Safety Impacts 32
6 Development and Mitigation Measures 34

6.1 Mitigation Measures ________________________________________________________________ 34
6.2 A281/A248 Kings Road and A281/A248 Broadford Road ____________________________________ 34
6.3 A281/Station Road _________________________________________________________________ 37
6.4 A281/A322 Onslow Street Gyratory ____________________________________________________ 39
6.5 A281/B2130 Elmbridge Road /Dunsfold Road Signals ______________________________________ 39
6.6 Conclusions from the Capacity Analysis _________________________________________________ 41
6.7 Potential Funding Sources ___________________________________________________________ 41
7 Adequacy of SINTRAM 43
Appendices 44
Appendix A. Accident Plans _____________________________________________________________________ 45

Executive Summary
This report provides analysis on the potential traffic impacts of new development
at Dunsfold Park and Cranleigh to inform Waverley Borough Council in production
of their Local Plan. The A281 corridor is the focus of the work and, in particular,
the key junctions are assessed:
A281 / B2130 Elmbridge Road signals west of Cranleigh;

A281 / Station Road mini-roundabout in Bramley;
A281 / A248 Kings Road and Broadford Road junctions at Shalford;
A281 / A322 Onslow Street/Bridge Street junction in Guildford.
New peak period traffic counts were undertaken at each of these junctions in
2015, together with journey time surveys on the section of A281 covering the
junctions. The journey times showed that congestion already occurs along the
A281 corridor, with significant queuing and delays at the Station Road mini-
roundabout and Kings Road roundabout.
Future traffic demand in 2031 was estimated at each of the above junctions,
taking into different scenarios of the number of new houses to be provided at
Dunsfold Park and Cranleigh. Background traffic growth was also allowed for,
based on proposed developments elsewhere in Waverley Borough and the
surrounding area.
The performance of each junction was assessed for the existing situation and the
different future scenarios, using junction capacity software, with and without
potential mitigation measures to increase capacity. As part of the planning
application for a major new development at Dunsfold Park submitted in December
2015, improvements at the B2130 and A248 junctions were included in the
Transport Assessment. The capacity analyses show that these improvements are
expected to be able to accommodate the predicted traffic demand in 2031, with up
to 3,400 new houses at Dunsfold.
However, no improvement is proposed to the Station Road mini-roundabout in

Bramley in the Transport Assessment. Without any change, congestion with the
existing layout and traffic demand is predicted to worsen substantially, with very
long queues and delays in the future.

i P:\Southampton\ITW\Projects\351663 Waverley Borough Council\Outgoing\Waverley Report 351663-02-D.docx
An improvement to convert the Station Road junction to a signalised layout was

previously proposed in the Preliminary Transport Assessment for the Dunsfold
development (November 2014). Assessment of this layout shows that it should
largely mitigate for the impact of both Dunsfold development trips and additional
traffic due to general traffic growth through to 2031.
There are a number of issues with the potential improvements at two of the
junctions:
A248 Kings Road / Broadford Road - the scheme is reliant on widening onto the
adjacent common land to provide additional lanes. Obtaining approval for such
a scheme is likely to be very difficult and time consuming but the problem is not
insurmountable.
Station Road – detailed issues would need to be confirmed, including restricted
access for Snowdenham Lane, the required space to fit in signal equipment,
pedestrian facilities and safety of cyclists.
The impact on the A281 corridor of additional houses in Cranleigh and Godalming,
instead of at Dunsfold, is likely to be limited. However, it is unlikely that
contributions from such new development could be used to fund or part-fund
measures on the A281, which is not the case for Dunsfold.
A review has also been undertaken of road traffic accidents involving personal
injury over a five-year period in the study area. This showed relatively high
accident rates on the B2130 either side of its junction with the A281 which should
be considered further, particularly in light of potential increases in traffic on this
road as a result of the proposed Dunsfold Park development.
This report raises a number of other issues which it has not been possible to
assess in detail, for which further work may be required:
The Dunsfold Park development is likely to increase traffic levels on lower
standard east-west routes, such as High Street Green, Markwick Lane, Alfold
Road and Wildwood Lane;
The overall capacity of the Guildford town centre road network has not been
assessed nor have the implications of possible changes to traffic management
being considered by Guildford Borough Council.

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1 Introduction
Mott MacDonald has been commissioned by Waverley Borough Council (WBC) to provide advice in
relation to planning for new development as part of their Local Plan. This report covers Stage 2 of the
work, following on from the Stage 1 Report that was issued in May 2015.
1.1 Background
WBC consulted on a new Local Plan from 3 September - 17 October 2014, through the ‘Consultation on
Potential Housing Scenarios and Other Issues for the Waverley Local Plan’ document. Four scenarios to
meet the predicted demand for new housing were presented:
“Each would deliver 8,450 homes over the period from 2013 to 2031, equivalent to just over 469 homes
per year on average. This includes the 3,400 on sites within settlements. The distribution of the remaining
5,050 homes differs between the scenarios as follows:
 Scenario 1 – Around 4,450 on greenfield sites at the four larger settlements, some growth at villages
(600) but no development at Dunsfold Aerodrome
 Scenario 2 – Around 2,650 on greenfield sites at the four larger settlements, some growth at the
villages (600) plus 1,800 at Dunsfold Aerodrome
villages (550) plus 2,600 at Dunsfold Aerodrome
villages (450) plus 3,400 at Dunsfold Aerodrome.”
Supporting evidence for this consultation included a Strategic Transport Assessment of scenarios
undertaken by Surrey County Council (SCC) on behalf of WBC, as well as a ‘Planning Position Statement
from Promoters of Dunsfold Aerodrome: August 2014’.
1.2 Scope of Work
Stage 1 covered:
 Review of previous work and associated data inputs and modelling outputs;
 Identification of locations where new traffic counts and junction/link assessments are needed in Stage
2 in relation to 1,800 houses at Dunsfold Aerodrome; and
 Development of the methodology for forecasting future traffic demand and for assessing the impact of
Dunsfold traffic with and without mitigation measures.
The main requirements of Stage 2 are to:

 Identify peak hour demand at the key junctions and links from the new traffic surveys;
 Predict future traffic demands at these locations;
 Undertake capacity modelling of key junctions;
 Assess road safety impacts of future traffic levels;
 Assess mitigation measures for congestion and safety;
 Assess adequacy of SINTRAM.
1 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

2 Peak Hour Demand
2.1 Manual Classified Counts
Manual Classified Counts (MCCs) were undertaken on Thursday 30th April 2015, by way of temporary
video cameras, covering the morning and evening peak periods of 07:00-10:00 and 16:00-19:00 at five
junctions (see Figure 2.1):
Site 1 Part of signalised gyratory – A281/A322 Onslow Street/Bridge Street;
Site 2 3 arm standard roundabout at Shalford - A281/A248 Kings Road;
Site 3 4 arm mini roundabout at Bramley – A281/Station Lane/Snowdenham Lane;
Site 4 3 arm priority T- junction near Loxhill – B2130/Markwick Lane; and
Site 5 4 arm signalised staggered junction near Dunsfold – A281/B2130 Elmbridge Road /Dunsfold Road
Site 4 was included primarily to obtain link flows on the B2130 and Markwick Lane, whilst the other
junctions are where congestion generally occurs on the A281 corridor between Alford and Guildford.
The following vehicle classes were recorded:
 Cars;
 Minibus;
 Bus/coach;
 LGVs (light goods vehicles);
 OGV1 (heavy goods vehicles with 2 or 3 axles); and
 OGV2 (heavy goods vehicles with 4 or more axles or articulated).
It is noted that when the surveys were undertaken Run Common Road was closed due to roadworks (in
place from 30 March-19 May 2015). Run Common Road would normally provide a route from Cranleigh to
the A281 heading north, so its closure may have had some impact on the traffic flows at the A281
junctions. The surveys at Sites 2 and 5 were repeated on 22 September 2015 when Run Common Road
had been re-opened. Some modest changes in traffic movement volumes were recorded, compared to the
April surveys, therefore the September data were used for the junction capacity analysis. During the
repeated surveys, the opportunity was also taken to record movements at the A281/A248 Broadford Road
junction (immediately south of the A248 Kings Road roundabout), as the Dunsfold proposals include
signalisation of this junction.
2 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Figure 2.1: Location of Traffic Counts
Site 1
MCC
Site 2
MCC
Site 6
ATC Priority junction
Signalised junction
Site 3 Roundabout junction

MCC
ATC
Site 5
MCC
Site 4
MCC
Site 7
ATC
Source: © OpenStreetMap contributors.
3 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

For each junction, the busiest hour period in the AM and PM peak periods was identified based on the total
flow entering the junction. Figure 2.2 - Figure 2.5 below show the flow on each arm for these busiest hour
periods. Note that this is the actual flow that passed through the junction, which may be lower than the full
demand on each arm if long queues developed.
Figure 2.2: Peak Hour Traffic Flows – A281/A322 Onslow Street
AM 0715-0815
PM 1615-1715
vehicles/hour
2041
2016
980
908
968
1037
Source: traffic count 30 April 2015, © OpenStreetMap contributors
4 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Figure 2.3: Peak Hour Traffic Flows – A281/A248 Kings Road
AM 0715-0815
PM 1615-1715
vehicles/hour
1156 638
828 777
292
349
811
607
1028
1072 1029
1279
* Note - Kings Road bypasses roundabout
for north to east movements
Source: traffic count 22 September 2015, © OpenStreetMap contributors
Figure 2.4: Peak Hour Traffic Flows – A281/B2128 Station Road
AM 0730-0830
PM 1600-1700
vehicles/hour 673 496
821 303
931
702 456
389
181
107 549
788
109 775
115 591
Source: traffic count 30 April 2015, © OpenStreetMap contributors
5 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Figure 2.5: Peak Hour Traffic Flows – A281/B2130 Elmbridge Road
AM 0730-0830
PM 1700-1800 271
vehicles/hour 658
306
557 249
295
337
286
306
316
380
282
348
778
641
344
Source: traffic count 22 September 2015, © OpenStreetMap contributors
2.2 Automatic Traffic Counts
In addition, Automatic Traffic Counts (ATC) were undertaken at two locations:
Site 6 A281 Horsham Road - North of Bramley Golf Club; and
Site 7 A281 Horsham Road - North of Mill Farm/Hall Place.
The ATCs covered 24 hours each day starting on the afternoon of 30 April through to 16 May 2015, to give
two weeks of continuous data on traffic volumes in hourly intervals. From the data, the peak hour volumes
on a Thursday and a Tuesday (day of September 2015 surveys) have been compared to the average for
Monday-Thursday over the period (ignoring Fridays as the northbound AM peaks are shown to be lower
and ignoring the Bank Holiday on 4 May).
6 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Table 2.1 below shows that flows on a Thursday and Tuesday are similar to those of an average weekday,
therefore there is no need to adjust the traffic count data from 30 April and 22 September to represent an
average weekday.
Table 2.1: Peak Hour ATC Flows (vehicles/hour)

Heading Left AM Northbound AM Southbound PM Northbound PM Southbound
A281 Bramley- Average Monday- 1010 653 748 898
Shalford Thursday
Average 1019 674 760 850
Thursday
Average Tuesday 1003 606 745 934
A281 South of Average Monday- 736 305 367 726
B2130 Thursday
Average 725 303 355 712
Thursday
Average Tuesday 732 283 335 715
Source: temporary ATC 30 April -16 May 2015. NOTE – flows for A281 Southbound south of B2130 have been estimated due to
problem with counter classification
Figure 2.6 shows how the peak hour volumes varied from day to day over the survey period at the two
ATC sites.
7 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

8

Figure 2.6: Automatic Traffic Count Data
A281 Northbound A281 Southbound

1200
between Bramley and Shalford 30 Apr-16 May 2015 1200
between Bramley and Shalford 30 Apr-16 May 2015
07:00-08:00 08:00-09:00
1000 16:00-17:00 1000 17:00-18:00
800 800
vehicles/hour
vehicles/hour
600 600
400 400
200 200
0 0
Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
A281 Northbound A281 Southbound

South of B2130 30 Apr-16 May 2015 1200
South of B2130 30 Apr-16 May 2015
1200
07:00-08:00 07:00-08:00
1000 17:00-18:00 1000 17:00-18:00
800 800
vehicles/hour
vehicles/hour
600 600
400 400
200 200
0 0
Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Source: temporary ATC 30 April -16 May 2015. NOTE – flows for A281 Southbound south of B2130 have been estimated due to problem with counter classification.
2.3 Journey Time Surveys
Journey time measurements were made on the same day as the MCCs by way of two vehicles with GPS
units to record the location of each vehicle over time. Both vehicles travelled in a continuous loop on the
A281 from the A322 gyratory in Guildford to the approximate location of the proposed new Dunsfold Park
access (Alford Road side road, 1.5 miles south of the B2130 Elmbridge Road signal junction), where the
vehicle turned around and travelled back along the same route. One vehicle started at the northern end,
with the other starting at the southern end.
Figure 2.7 shows the average journey time for each of the two busiest hours during the AM and PM peak
periods, against the distance travelled from the start of the route. These graphs clearly show the stretches
of road where delays are experienced.
The average total journey time for each hour is also shown in Table 2.2, together with the average speed
(based on a total length of 14.46 km).
Table 2.2: Average Journey Times and Speeds

07:00 08:00 16:00 17:00
Southbound time (mm:ss) 16:43 19:09 21:54 20:19
Speed (kph) 52 45 40 43
Speed (mph) 32 28 25 27
Northbound time (mm:ss) 20:17 24:54 18:01 17:52
Speed (kph) 43 35 48 49
Speed (mph) 27 22 30 30
Figure 2.8 shows the total journey time for each of the vehicle runs from the survey (at the time each run
was started). The difference between highest and lowest observed times are shown in Table 2.3, giving a
maximum total delay experienced of around 10.5 minutes for northbound traffic in the AM peak and 7.5
minutes for southbound in the PM peak. This shows that congestion is already experienced on the A281
corridor, particularly for northbound trips at the B2130 Dunsfold road junction, through Bramley and on the
approach to Guildford town centre.
Table 2.3: Maximum Delay Experienced

Lowest Time Highest Time Maximum Delay
Southbound (mm:ss) 15:51 23:30 07:39
Northbound (mm:ss) 16:30 26:57 10:27
9 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Figure 2.7: Average Journey Times

Southbound
00:25
Bramley
rdbt
00:20
Shalford
rdbt 07:00
00:15
08:00
hh:mm
16:00
00:10
17:00
Elmbridge
Road sigs
00:05
00:00
0 5 10 15
Distance (km)
Northbound
00:25
Bramley
rdbt
00:20
Bramley
30mph
07:00
00:15
08:00
hh:mm
Dunsfold
Road sigs 16:00
00:10
17:00
Shalford
00:05
rdbt
00:00
0 5 10 15
Distance (km)
Source: surveys on 30 April 2015
10 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Figure 2.8: Average Journey Times
30:00
25:00
Journey time (mm:ss)
20:00
15:00
Northbound
Southbound
10:00
05:00
00:00
07:00:00 07:30:00 08:00:00 08:30:00 09:00:00
Start Time
30:00
25:00
Journey time (mm:ss)
20:00
15:00
Northbound
Southbound
10:00
05:00
00:00
16:00:00 16:30:00 17:00:00 17:30:00 18:00:00
Start Time
Source: surveys on 30 April 2015
11 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

3 Future Traffic Demand
Future peak hour demand at the key junctions has been estimated, taking the 2015 counts as a starting
point and applying growth as follows:
 2031 Base Case– using growth factors calculated from the 2031 Scenario 1 SINTRAM run (reported in
the Strategic Transport Assessment Report, September 2014);
 2031 with 1,800 houses at Dunsfold – trips for the new houses and other proposed development on
the site were added onto the 2031 Base Case;
 2031 with 2,600 houses at Dunsfold – increased trips for more new houses but employment and other
trip generation on site assumed to remain the same as for 1,800 houses;
 2031 with 3,400 houses at Dunsfold – increased trips for more new houses but employment and other
trip generation on site assumed to remain the same as for 1,800 houses;
 2031 with an additional 909 houses in Cranleigh and 994 in Godalming on top of the 2031 Base Case
(no new houses at Dunsfold).
3.1 2031 Base Case
Scenario 1 from the Strategic Transport Assessment is considered to be the Base Case for this
assessment work, as it includes development in the Cranleigh area (a total of 1,157 new houses) but also
includes housing developments in the rest of the Borough, as well as employment development throughout
the Borough.
Rather than just calculating one factor to apply to the whole area, it was agreed with SCC that the most
appropriate way of estimating growth at the key junctions would be to use the total flow entering each
junction. SCC confirmed that all of the traffic demand should be on the links feeding into these junctions in
the model.
The growth at junctions for Scenario 1 are detailed in Table 3.1 but these cover growth from 2009-2031, so
they were adjusted to allow for growth that has already occurred based on data from SCC’s automatic
traffic counters (ATCs). Data from two ATC sites at Alfold and north of Shalford is available for 2009 and
2014 and this has been used to calculate a growth for two-way traffic for each peak hour (to align with the
factor for total traffic passing through each junction). Note that there has been no growth on the A281 at
Alfold in both peak hours and at Shalford in the AM peak hour.
Within SINTRAM the growth at the B2130 junction is believed to be over-estimated due to issues of vehicle
routings and base year model validation. Therefore, growth of 20% has been assumed based on the
figure for the Bramley roundabout.
12 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Table 3.1: Growth at Junctions to 2031

Scenario 1 Growth Net Growth 2015-2031
AM peak Actual Growth 2009-2014
Junction 2009-2031 AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour 24 Hour Total AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour
Onslow Street +16.7% 0 8% 5% +16.7% +8.7%
gyratory (Shalford) (Shalford)
Shalford +12.7% 0 8% 5% +12.7% +4.7%
roundabout (Shalford) (Shalford)
Bramley +19.7% 0 8% 5% +19.7% +11.7%
Roundabout (Shalford) (Shalford)
B2130 Signal +20.0% 0 0 1% +20.0% +20.0%
junction assumed (Alfold) (Alfold)
Source: SCC SINTRAM and ATC data
3.2 2031 with 1,800 houses at Dunsfold
The demand from 1,800 houses (and other mixed uses) has been estimated based on the calculations
provided by Vectos in their ‘Note on Trip Generation and Distribution’ (November 2015), which have
remained the same in the Transport Assessment that accompanied the planning application submitted in
December 2015. These calculations were an update to the previous Technical Report Trip Generation and
Distribution (April 2015) which was based on 3,400 houses. It should be noted that the planning
application is currently being considered and, depending on the outcome of the assessment of the
Transport Assessment, some of the assumptions and findings of this report may need to be revisited at a
later stage.
The calculations estimate increased traffic demand with a process to:
 Estimate peak hour car trip generation for the different development types (by applying mode shares to
person trips);
 Distribute these trips among the external road links (at the edge of the study area); and
 Assign assumed routes through the study area for trips between Dunsfold and the external links.
As there are many different development types proposed and there has been much debate on what the
most suitable trip generation volumes should be (between Vectos and SCC, with queries from the Motion
review as well), two different volumes have been calculated:
1. The latest Vectos numbers that assume 20% internalisation of trips to work by new Dunsfold residents;
2. A higher demand using less optimistic assumptions on trip internalisation.
Table 3.2 shows the trip generation with 1,800 new houses, split into the following types:
 Employment on Site trips to work at Dunsfold from home locations elsewhere
13 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

 Residential Employment trips to work elsewhere by Dunsfold residents

 Education trips to schools/colleges by Dunsfold residents
 Food Retail trips to food stores by Dunsfold residents
 Non-food Retail trips to other shops by Dunsfold residents
 Other trips for personal business, leisure and recreation by Dunsfold residents.
The Vectos report assumed that all residential to employment trips using the rail mode (6%) would access
the rail stations by non-car modes. This is not considered realistic so allowance for these trips using car to
the stations has been included, with the assumption that half of rail trips would be via Guildford station (for
frequent services to London) and half would drive west to Witley, Milford, Godalming or Haslemere
stations.
Table 3.2: Trip Generation with 1,800 Houses

Non-
Employment Residential Food food
on Site Employment Education Retail Retail Other Rail Total
IN 07:00 153 92 2 2 1 16 7 273
IN 08:00 145 82 21 6 3 31 6 294
OUT 07:00 45 316 7 5 3 48 23 447
OUT 08:00 36 281 100 17 10 89 20 553
IN 16:00 44 166 14 52 31 161 12 480
IN 17:00 27 267 9 41 24 179 19 566
OUT 16:00 152 82 9 29 18 90 6 386
OUT 17:00 150 132 5 23 14 100 10 434
Table 3.3 gives the assumed trip distribution detailed in the Vectos report (except for the rail distribution
which is a new assumption) showing proportions of each type of trip to the different destinations. There
are no additional trips assumed to travel to the A248 Broadford Road (location 3) so this has been
excluded.
Trips between the site and Cranleigh have been split between the three available routes of B2130, Alford
Road and Wildwood Lane. For the capacity analysis the important route is the B2130 as trips would pass
through the A281 signalised junction. The proportion of traffic that Vectos assumed would use this route
appears to be based on traffic surveys of movements between Cranleigh and the A281 to the south, so this
seems appropriate.
However, the assumptions used by Vectos on the distribution of trips to work from the site to the west do
not appear realistic. Based on Census data, a total of 35% of trips to work from the site heading west is
realistic but this has been split as 14% to the B2130, 7% to Markwick Lane and 14% to High Street Green.
It is considered that the High Street Green route would only be used by trips heading towards Haslemere
and the A3, A283 and A286 to the south, which represents only 5% of trips to work based on Census data.
Therefore, this proportion has been used instead, with the remaining 30% of trips to the west split between
B2130 and Markwick Lane.
14 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Table 3.3: Trip Distribution

Non-
on Site Employment Education Retail Retail Other Rail
1 A281 N (towards 0.36 0.31 0.08 0 0.25 0.25 0.5
Guildford and beyond)
2 Station Road E 0 0.03 0.04 0 0 0
4 B2130 E (towards 0.09 0.02 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.05
Cranleigh)
5 Wildwood Lane E 0.02 0.06 0.31 0.23 0.18 0.18
6 Alford Road E 0 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03
7 A281 S (towards 0.23 0.21 0.04 0.33 0.25 0.25
Horsham)
8 B2133 S 0.07 0.01 0 0 0 0
9 B2130 N (via 0.16 0.15 0.23 0.33 0.25 0.25
Hascombe)
10 High Street Green 0.03 0.05 0.13 0 0 0 0.5
W
11 Markwick Lane W 0.03 0.15 0.05 0 0 0
The above data has been used to estimate the trip generation with 1,800 houses on the Dunsfold site.
Allowance for further additional housing in the Cranleigh area above that included in STA Scenario 1 has
been included, with a total of 119 houses in the villages of Ewhurst, Alfold, Dunsfold and Wonersh. A
further 26 houses at Frensham and Churt have been ignored for this analysis as they are not in the study
area. The additional traffic has been estimated with a simplified approach of assuming that there would be
1,919 houses at Dunsfold, rather than the 1,800 in STA Scenario 2. The resultant hourly demand and
distribution of all trips is detailed in Table 3.4.
Table 3.4: Assigned Trips with 1,919 Houses

OUT OUT OUT OUT
WITH RAIL - 1919 houses IN 07:00 IN 08:00 07:00 08:00 IN 16:00 IN 17:00 16:00 17:00
1 A281 N (towards Guildford 94 93 147 151 129 163 115 134
and beyond)
2 Station Road E 3 4 10 13 6 9 3 4
4 B2130 E (towards 17 19 15 25 23 23 24 25
Cranleigh)
5 Wildwood Lane E 13 23 34 75 66 70 39 41
6 Alford Road E 2 3 5 11 10 11 6 6
7 A281 S (towards Horsham) 61 64 97 108 117 135 93 103
8 B2133 S 12 11 7 6 5 5 12 12
9 B2130 N (via Hascombe) 45 53 75 108 106 118 79 85
10 High Street Green W 14 15 31 41 19 26 13 18
11 Markwick Lane W 19 19 52 51 29 44 18 26
Total 280 303 474 589 510 603 401 452
15 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

The above numbers are based on 20% internalisation of residential trips from the site to employment which
Vectos assumed and which is considered to be too high. If there is a total of 298 employment trips to the
site between 07:00-09:00 after 20% internalisation, the total number would be 373 employment trips i.e. 75
internal trips. Allowing for this low level of internalisation increases the residential to employment trips from
636 to 720 trips out in the AM peak period, as shown in Table 3.5, with the new distribution in Table 3.6.
Table 3.5: Trip Generation with 1,919 Houses – Lower Internalisation

Non-
on Site Employment Education Retail Retail Other Rail Total
IN 07:00 153 111 2 2 1 17 7 294
IN 08:00 145 99 22 6 3 33 6 315
OUT 07:00 45 381 7 5 3 51 25 518
OUT 08:00 36 339 107 18 11 95 21 626
IN 16:00 44 200 15 55 33 172 13 532
IN 17:00 27 322 10 44 26 191 20 639
OUT 16:00 152 99 10 31 19 96 6 413
OUT 17:00 150 159 5 25 15 107 11 471
Table 3.6: Assigned Trips with 1,919 Houses – Lower Internalisation

OUT OUT OUT OUT
1 A281 N (towards Guildford
and beyond) 98 97 161 164 137 175 118 139
2 Station Road E 3 4 12 14 7 10 3 5
4 B2130 E (towards
Cranleigh) 17 19 15 26 23 24 24 25
5 Wildwood Lane E 14 24 37 77 67 72 40 42
6 Alford Road E 2 3 6 11 10 11 6 6
8 B2133 S 12 11 7 6 5 5 12 12
9 B2130 N (via Hascombe) 47 54 81 113 110 123 80 88
11 Markwick Lane W 21 20 59 57 32 50 20 29
Total 292 314 518 628 533 641 412 471
Figure 3.1 and Figure 3.2 show how the trips with lower internalisation have been assigned to the local
road network for each of the peak hours. Key assumptions used by Vectos for the assignment of trips are:
 The southern exit from the site would be used by all trips to High Street Green and 25% of trips to
B2130 to the north and Markwick Lane;
 All other trips would use the new access road onto the A281.
16 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Figure 3.1: Development Trip Generation – 1,919 houses AM Period
07:00
A281 08:00
98
161 97
164 0
0
0
0 Kings Road
0
A248 0
0
0 98
161 97
0 164 12
0 14
B2130 Snowdenham Lane Station Road

81 47 0 3
113 54 0 4
173 101
178 101
21 51
20 56 15
26
Markwick Lane
B2130
59 105 17
57 128 19
6
17 11 Alford Road
19
35 2
43 449 3
543
SITE 37
261 77
14 280
15 Wildwood Lane
14
High Street Green 24
34
43
12 7 106
11 6 116
64
B2133 66 A281
Source: MM analysis
17 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Figure 3.2: Development Trip Generation – 1,919 houses PM Period
16:00
A281 17:00
137
118 175
139 0
0
0
0 Kings Road
0
A248 0
0
0 137
118 175
0 139 3
0 5

80 110 0 7
88 123 0 10
121 143
144 185
32 107
50 130 24
25
Markwick Lane
B2130
20 75 23
29 87 24
6
36 6 Alford Road
43
25 10
29 373 11
423
SITE 40
478 42
20 569
28 Wildwood Lane
67
14
18
5 12 95
5 12 107
122
B2133 143 A281
Source: MM analysis
18 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

3.3 2031 with 2,600 and 3,400 houses at Dunsfold
For the above two scenarios the number of residential trips to/from the site have been factored up from the
figures with 1,800 houses, in proportion to the increase in number of houses (for all trip purposes). With
the 119 houses in nearby villages, this gives totals of 2,719 and 3,519 houses respectively. It has been
assumed that employment on site would remain the same as with 1,800 houses, therefore no additional
employment trips to the site from external areas have been allowed for.
The resultant trips are detailed in the following tables and figures.

OUT OUT OUT OUT
and beyond) 116 116 221 226 187 243 145 175
2 Station Road E 5 5 17 20 9 14 5 7
4 B2130 E (towards
Cranleigh) 19 22 20 36 32 32 29 30
5 Wildwood Lane E 19 32 52 109 95 102 55 58
6 Alford Road E 3 4 8 16 15 16 8 9
8 B2133 S 12 12 9 7 6 6 12 13
9 B2130 N (via Hascombe) 56 67 112 158 153 173 104 114
11 Markwick Lane W 28 27 83 81 45 70 26 39
Total 351 386 715 875 737 896 522 605

OUT OUT OUT OUT
and beyond) 134 134 281 289 237 312 171 211
2 Station Road E 6 7 22 26 12 18 6 9
4 B2130 E (towards
Cranleigh) 20 25 25 45 40 41 33 35
5 Wildwood Lane E 23 41 67 141 122 131 70 74
6 Alford Road E 3 6 11 21 19 21 11 11
8 B2133 S 13 12 10 9 7 8 12 13
9 B2130 N (via Hascombe) 65 80 143 203 196 223 127 141
11 Markwick Lane W 35 34 107 104 58 90 33 49
Total 410 457 913 1122 942 1152 631 739
19 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

07:00
A281 08:00
116
221 116
226 0
0
0
0 Kings Road
0
A248 0
0
0 116
221 116
0 226 17
0 20

112 56 0 5
158 67 0 5
238 121
247 121
28 63
27 71 20
36
Markwick Lane
B2130
83 146 19
81 179 22
8
21 16 Alford Road
24
49 3
60 619 4
755
SITE 52
312 109
18 342
20 Wildwood Lane
19
47
60
12 9 146
12 7 161
76
B2133 80 A281
Source: MM analysis
20 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

16:00
A281 17:00
187
145 243
175 0
0
0
0 Kings Road
0
A248 0
0
0 187
145 243
0 175 5
0 7

104 153 0 9
114 173 0 14
149 196
182 257
45 148
70 182 29
30
Markwick Lane
B2130
26 97 32
39 115 32
8
49 9 Alford Road
61
32 15
38 471 16
543
SITE 55
661 58
27 796
40 Wildwood Lane
95
18
24
6 12 120
6 13 137
169
B2133 200 A281
Source: MM analysis
21 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

07:00
A281 08:00
134
281 134
289 0
0
0
0 Kings Road
0
A248 0
0
0 134
281 134
0 289 22
0 26

143 65 0 6
203 80 0 7
303 140
316 141
35 76
34 85 25
45
Markwick Lane
B2130
107 188 20
104 231 25
11
25 21 Alford Road
28
63 3
77 789 6
968
SITE 67
363 141
22 404
25 Wildwood Lane
23
61
77
13 10 186
12 9 206
88
B2133 94 A281
Source: MM analysis
22 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

16:00
A281 17:00
237
171 312
211 0
0
0
0 Kings Road
0
A248 0
0
0 237
171 312
0 211 6
0 9

127 196 0 12
141 223 0 18
177 250
220 330
58 190
90 235 33
35
Markwick Lane
B2130
33 120 40
49 142 41
11
63 11 Alford Road
78
40 19
47 569 21
662
SITE 70
843 74
35 1023
51 Wildwood Lane
122
22
30
7 12 145
8 13 167
216
B2133 257 A281
Source: MM analysis
23 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

3.4 2031 with 909 Additional houses at Cranleigh
The trips associated with 909 additional houses in Cranleigh have been estimated following a similar
procedure to that used for Dunsfold. Some of the key assumptions were adjusted to suit the conditions in
Cranleigh based on analysis by Mott MacDonald:
 75% of education and non-food retail trips assumed to be contained within the town, with 100%
containment of food trips;
 Trips from the new houses to external workplace locations would be 77% of the equivalent for
Dunsfold, due to higher internalisation (31% from Census data for Cranleigh, compared to assumed
10% for Dunsfold);
 The distribution for trips to work from the Cranleigh Census area was used;
 Trips to the A281 to the south e.g. Horsham would use the B2128 and not pass through the study area;
 Trips to the A281 to the north would use the B2128 and join the A281 at Shalford.
On the last assumption, it is acknowledged that some traffic to the north would join the A281 via the B2130
west of Cranleigh or via Run Common Road. Recent traffic counts showed that these volumes are
relatively low compared to the volume using the B2128 recorded north of Wonersh, therefore the
assumption seems reasonable.
For additional houses in Godalming it was assumed that the only trips likely to impact on the A281 corridor
would be work related, with all other uses either being contained in the Godalming/Milford area or travelling
to Guildford on the A3100 or A3. The Census distribution of trips to work by Godalming residents was
assessed and showed that only a small proportion of trips would pass through the A281 study area:
 1.3% towards Cranleigh, assumed to use B2130;

 1.7% towards Bramley, Wonersh and Shamley Green assumed to use A248 to A281 then Station
Road;
 3.1% towards A25 to east assumed to use A248;
 1.9% towards Horsham assumed to use B2130 then A281.
Similar to for Cranleigh, car trips to work from Godalming would be proportionally lower than from Dunsfold
due to higher internalisation (19%) but also a much lower car mode share (63%). Applying the above
distribution to the trips associated with new houses in Godalming and factoring for reduced car trips
resulted in negligible volumes of traffic using or crossing the A281 corridor. A maximum of 5 trips per hour
was estimated to use the A248 from Godalming in the AM peak, as such these additional trips have not
been included in the capacity analysis.
The resultant trips from additional houses in Cranleigh are detailed in the following figures.
24 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Figure 3.7: Development Trip Generation – 909 houses at Cranleigh AM Period
07:00
A281 08:00
20
67 19
65 20
19
0
0 Kings Road
67
A248 65
0
0 0
0 0
0 0 0
0 0

24 7 0 0
26 7 0 0
0 0
0 0
2 9
3 10 9
10
Markwick Lane
B2130
6 31 31
10 37 37
0
0 0 Alford Road
0
0 0
0 0
2
2
0
0 Wildwood Lane
7
High Street Green 6
0
0
2 7 0
2 6 0
0
B2133 0 A281
Source: MM analysis
25 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Figure 3.8: Development Trip Generation – 909 houses at Cranleigh PM Period
16:00
A281 17:00
47
24 68
35 47
68
0
0 Kings Road
24
A248 35
0
0 0
0 0
0 0 0
0 0

7 13 0 0
10 21 0 0
0 0
0 0
4 17
5 26 17
26
Markwick Lane
B2130
2 9 9
3 13 13
0
0 0 Alford Road
0
0 0
0 0
4
6
0
0 Wildwood Lane
2
High Street Green 3
0
0
4 2 0
6 3 0
0
B2133 0 A281
Source: MM analysis
26 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

4 Capacity Modelling
4.1 Methodology
New ‘stand-alone’ models were built for the four key junctions identified, for both the observed AM and PM
peak hours. Site visits to all of the junctions were undertaken to ensure that the models accurately reflect
the observed operation, for example use of certain lanes for turning movements. The assessments were
undertaken with the standard computer software programmes ARCADY (Junctions 9 version) for
roundabouts and LinSIG (version 3) for signalised junctions.
The roundabouts were modelled using the ‘direct profile’, whereby each 15-minute time segment within the
peak hour was specified separately to give the most accurate representation of the demand profile. The
15-minute time segments before and after the peak hour were also included. In order to estimate the total
demand on each arm, rather than just using the observed volumes that pass through the junction,
allowance was made for the additional traffic that remained in a queue at the end of the peak hour.
For the 2015 Base Models, the predicted queue lengths and delays on each arm were checked to ensure
that they matched observations and the journey time surveys. Whilst it is not possible to get exact
matches, the base results did replicate the right order of queuing and delays.
Future models were then produced for the 2031 Base Case and 2031 with the development trips from
1,800 new houses at Dunsfold, using the predicted demand as detailed in Section 3. For development
trips, the hourly demand was assumed to be split equally among the four 15-minute segments.
4.2 Shalford Roundabout
Shalford roundabout was modelled as a standard three arm roundabout, with the peak hours of 07:15-
08:15 and 16:15-17:15 for the AM and PM peak respectively. The modelling results are shown below in
Table 4.1 by way of:
 Queue length in ‘passenger car units’ (pcus)

 Average delay per vehicle (seconds)
 Ratio of flow to capacity (RFC).
Passenger car units are used as this allows for buses and heavy goods vehicles being equivalent to two
cars in a queue and using the capacity of two cars at junctions. The results are shown for the worst 15-
minute period within the peak hour.
For the 2015 AM peak hour, the A281 arm from the south and A248 from the east are both over-capacity.
With the increased demand for the 2031 Base Case, the queues and delays are predicted to increase
significantly, with delays of nearly 20 minutes on the A248 and 13 minutes on the A281. In the PM peak,
delays of around 10 minutes on the A281 from the north are predicted for 2031.
With the addition of traffic associated with 1,800 new houses at Dunsfold the predicted delays in 2031
increase further as would be expected.
27 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

For roundabouts, delays can be expected with an RFC value of over 0.85 which is taken as the normal
‘design level’ for new or improved roundabouts. With the existing demand, all arms of the roundabout are
currently above this level in the PM peak and two of the arms are in the AM peak.
With the Dunsfold development it is proposed that this junction would be converted to signals. Capacity
analysis of the proposed mitigation measures is contained in Section 6.
Table 4.1: A281/A248 Kings Road Roundabout: Modelling Results

AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour
Queue Delay (s) RFC Queue Delay (s) RFC
(PCUs) (PCUs)
Existing Demand 2015
A281 Horsham Rd N 5 22 0.77 97 368 1.11
A248 Kings Rd 162 610 1.20 8 35 1.03
A281 Horsham Rd S 96 332 1.10 16 41 1.02
2031 Base Case
A281 Horsham Rd N 15 43 0.82 154 576 1.19
A248 Kings Rd 344 1159 1.42 12 58 1.05
A281 Horsham Rd S 251 809 1.21 29 65 1.02
2031 with 1,800 houses at Dunsfold
A281 Horsham Rd N 25 64 0.90 284 956 1.30
A248 Kings Rd 388 1318 1.49 15 72 1.04
A281 Horsham Rd S 500 1382 1.33 95 242 1.09
Source: ARCADY Junctions 9
4.3 Bramley Roundabout
Bramley roundabout was modelled as a 4 arm mini-roundabout (as it has a traversable painted central
island with a diameter of less than 4m) for the peak hours of 07:30-8:30 and 16:00-17:00. The modelling
results are shown below in Table 4.2.
In the AM peak, delays are currently experienced on the A281 from the south, which are predicted to
increase to around 25 minutes by 2031. In the PM peak, the A281 from the north will also experience
greater congestion, with delays of around 8 minutes. Again, with existing demand, the A281 arms are
significantly over the threshold of 0.85 for RFC.
With the addition of traffic associated with 1,800 new houses at Dunsfold very long delays are shown in
2031 without mitigation in place.
28 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Table 4.2: A281/Station Road Roundabout: Modelling Results

Queue Queue
(PCUs) Delay (s) RFC (PCUs) Delay (s) RFC
A281 Horsham Rd N 10 50 0.93 30 122 1.08
Station Rd 2 15 0.71 3 19 0.75
A281 Horsham Rd S 76 344 1.17 4 19 0.79
Snowdenham Lane 1 17 0.51 0 8 0.20
2031 Base Case
A281 Horsham Rd N 63 237 1.14 143 482 1.22
Station Rd 5 29 0.86 5 28 0.85
A281 Horsham Rd S 339 1507 1.44 7 33 0.90
A281 Horsham Rd N 128 458 1.25 359 1279 1.39
Station Rd 7 35 0.89 6 35 0.89
A281 Horsham Rd S 573 2502 1.63 32 131 1.05
Source: ARCADY Junctions 9
4.4 A281/A322 Onslow Street Gyratory
The signal junction at the northern end of the A281 where it meets the A322 was modelled in isolation i.e.
the full gyratory system of linked signals was not modelled. It is predicted that this junction would operate
within capacity up to 2031 as shown in Table 4.3, assuming a 60 second cycle time. However, it should be
noted that queuing is currently experienced on the A281 from the south, suggesting that the capacity of the
overall gyratory constrains the throughput from the A281. It is understood that there is queuing on the
westbound A31 Farnham Road that blocks back to the gyratory and reduces the capacity for traffic using
the gyratory. Detailed modelling of the full gyratory junction was outside the scope of this review, as such,
it has not been possible to assess the potential impact of development traffic from Dunsfold on its
operation. Further modelling work would be required to assess the impact in more detail.
However, it should also be noted that Guildford Borough Council is considering changes to the layout at
the gyratory as part of their Town Centre Masterplan. GBC published a technical note1 on their website,
detailing an initial assessment of a range of options. Three preferred options were identified, all of which
included pedestrianisation of one or more links of the gyratory. The note also confirmed that all of these
options would reduce the available traffic capacity, requiring reductions in existing traffic volumes of up to
57% to achieve an acceptable junction performance. It is recognised that changes at the gyratory would
1
http://www.guildford.gov.uk/media/20021/Summary-Note---Transport-proposals-AM-Arup-September-2015/pdf/Summary_Note_-
_Transport_proposals_(AM__Arup_Sept_2015).pdf
29 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

need to be part of a wider transport strategy for the town as a whole, which would seek to reduce traffic
volumes to and passing through the town centre.
A range of measures would be needed, which could include better management of parking, further Park &
Ride sites, bus priority measures and improved walking and cycling facilities. As part of this, SCC
consulted on the ‘Guildford Town Centre Transport Package’2 in October/November 2015. Funding has
been applied for from the Enterprise M3 Enterprise Partnership to improve sustainable travel options in
Guildford.
Table 4.3: A281/A322 Onslow Street Gyratory: Modelling Results

(PCUs) (PCUs)
A281 Millbrook 7 14 0.58 7 15 0.58
A322 Onslow Street 6 23 0.60 6 22 0.57
2031 Base Case
A281 Millbrook 9 17 0.70 8 16 0.63
A322 Onslow Street 7 26 0.67 7 23 0.62
2031 with Dunsfold
A281 Millbrook 10 16 0.73 8 15 0.65
A322 Onslow Street 8 31 0.75 7 25 0.65
Source: LINSIG
4.5 A281/B2130 Elmbridge Road /Dunsfold Road Signals
Although the AM peak hour is 07:30-08:30 based on total throughput, queueing is worse from 07:00-08:00
due the higher volume of northbound traffic at this time (with the overall junction capacity dictated by the
need to balance capacity between the A281 northbound and B2130 westbound movements in the AM
peak period). Therefore, the 2015 model was based on the earlier demand. The results in Table 4.4 show
that the A281 from the south has some queuing but this is not as great as actually experienced on site,
probably because the junction is not currently running as efficiently as it could. It was also evident from the
repeated traffic survey that the volumes passing through this junction were lower than previously recorded
when Run Common Road was closed.
For signal junctions, a maximum RFC of 0.90 is normally used as the design level (compared to 0.85 for
roundabouts). This is exceeded for the B2130 arm in the 2031 Base Case PM peak. With the addition of
traffic associated with 1,800 new houses at Dunsfold, two of the junction arms are predicted to be
significantly higher than this level in both the AM and PM peak hours.
2
http://www.surreycc.gov.uk/roads-and-transport/roads-and-transport-policies-plans-and-consultations/major-transport-
projects/guildford-major-transport-schemes
30 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Table 4.4: A281/B2130 Signals: Modelling Results

Queue Queue
A281 Horsham Rd N 3 10 0.29 10 16 0.64
B2130 Elmbridge Rd 6 41 0.69 8 44 0.78
A281 Horsham Rd S 10 15 0.65 4 12 0.34
B2130 Dunsfold Rd 5 38 0.64 6 37 0.67
2031 Base Case
A281 Horsham Rd N 4 11 0.35 14 20 0.77
B2130 Elmbridge Rd 8 53 0.83 13 74 0.94
A281 Horsham Rd S 14 19 0.78 5 14 0.42
B2130 Dunsfold Rd 7 46 0.77 8 46 0.81
A281 Horsham Rd N 5 11 0.43 21 31 0.91
B2130 Elmbridge Rd 11 84 0.94 25 178 1.05
A281 Horsham Rd S 55 86 1.00 10 18 0.63
B2130 Dunsfold Rd 15 114 0.99 46 315 1.16
Source: LINSIG
4.6 Increased Link Flows
The above analysis has focussed on the capacity of key junctions on the A281. Increases in traffic volume
are also shown on lower standard roads that provide east-west routes through the area. Significant
increases associated with the Dunsfold development are predicted on High Street Green, Markwick Lane,
B2130 through Hascombe and Wildwood Lane towards Cranleigh. The issue for these routes is not so
much the capacity available but the impact of increased traffic on road safety and local residents living
alongside these roads.
A traffic count at the B2130/Markwick Lane junction showed volumes of around 400 vehicles/hour on the
B2130 northbound and 100 vehicles/hour on Markwick Lane westbound in the AM peak of 08:00-09:00.
With the additional development traffic from 1,800 houses at Dunsfold (Figure 3.1), these volumes would
increase to around 510 vehicles/hour and 160 vehicles/hour respectively i.e. a significant proportional
increase.
Such impacts over the wider area have not been assessed within this report but potential impacts on road
safety on the B2130 are considered in the next section.
31 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

5 Road Safety Impacts
Potential road safety impacts have been assessed by comparing the actual number of accidents that have
occurred in a five-year period (01/01/10 to 31/12/14) with the number that would be expected based on
national averages for similar roads and junctions. ‘Normal’ average accident rates were calculated based
on total vehicle-kilometres for links and total vehicle volume entering a junction, in line with the guidance in
the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges, Volume 13 Section 1 (known as the COBA Manual).
Within the calculation, existing Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) volumes were estimated by factoring
up the observed data for the six hours counted (07:00-10:00 and 16:00-19:00). From the permanent
automatic traffic counter at Shalford, the average 24-hour flow over the year is around 2.3 times that for the
6-hour peak periods.
Table 5.1 shows the number of predicted and actual accidents on the key links. Appendix A contains
drawings showing the locations of the accidents on each of the links.
Table 5.1: Number of Accidents on Links

Speed Predicted Actual
Length Limit accidents Accidents
Name Description (km) (mph) for 5 years 2010-2014
Link 1 A281 between Guildford and Kings Rd 2.5 30/40 30 22
Link 2 A281 between Kings Rd and Station Rd 2.2 30/40 20 8
Link 3 A281 between Station Rd and B2130 Elmbridge Rd 7.0 40/50 57 19
Link 4 B2130 between A281 and Barrihurst Ln 0.2 40 1 4
Link 5 B2130 between Barrihurst Ln and Dunsfold Rd 0.8 60 3 7
Link 6 B2130 between Dunsford Rd and Busbridge 8.0 60 27 14
Link 7 B2130 between A281 and Alfold Rd 1.5 30/40 6 13
Link 8 A281 between B2130 and B2133 4.0 60 13 15
Three links are shown to have accident rates significantly higher than expected:
B2130 between the A281 and Stovolds Hill access to Dunsfold Aerodrome
This stretch of road has a high number of accidents due to vehicles leaving the carriageway on tight bends,
all in wet conditions. This section has been split into two links as the speed limit changes from 40mph at
the eastern end (Link 4) to 60mph approximately 200m to the west (Link 5), prior to the Barrihurst Lane
junction. Three of the four accidents on the 40mph section occurred close to the start of the 60mph speed
limit, suggesting these vehicles may have been travelling faster than the speed limit.
As the proposed Dunsfold development would increase traffic demand on these links, this road safety
issue would need to be addressed. An initial review suggests that the whole section should be subject to a
40mph speed limit but further investigation may be required to determine if poor skid resistance or
drainage is contributing to the problem.
32 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

B2130 from the A281 to Cranleigh
East of the A281, the B2130 (Link 7) also has a relatively high accident rate. Five of the 13 accidents
occurred where the road narrows to one lane over the old canal, where eastbound traffic has priority over
westbound. With higher traffic demand on this link, it is suggested that this one lane section should be
subject to signal control to minimise conflicts, as used where the road crosses the old railway line to the
east, or the bridge should be widened to allow two-way traffic.
South of the B2130 junction, the A281 has a slightly higher than average accident rate (Link 8). However,
unlike the other links, there is no common contributing factor or obvious trend that explains this, therefore it
is not considered a significant problem.
Table 5.2 shows the number of predicted and actual accidents at the main junctions.
Table 5.2: Number of Accidents at Junctions

Predicted Actual
accidents Accidents
Name Description Junction Type for 5 years 2010-2014
Site 1 Guildford - A281/A322 gyratory signalised junction 4.6 6
Site 2 Shalford - A281 /Kings Rd roundabout 1.7 0
Site 3 Bramley - A281 /Station Rd mini-roundabout 3.3 7
Site 4 B2130 Dunsfold Rd/ Markwick Lane priority juntion 0.4 2
Site 5 A281/ B2130 Dunsfold Rd signalised junction 2.5 2
In terms of accidents at junctions, the roundabout in Bramley has a relatively high rate, with 7 accidents
against three expected. The accident records show that 4 of the 7 accidents involved cyclists or
motorcyclists; such accidents are common at roundabouts due to conflicting movements. If this junction
were be signalised it should help to address the accident rate for cyclists and motorcyclists (noting that
signalisation is not part of the Transport Assessment proposals associated with the Dunsfold Park planning
application).
At Sites 1 and 4 the actual numbers of accidents are also higher than predicted but the numbers are low so
it is difficult to draw firm conclusions on if there is a road safety problem.
33 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

6 Development and Mitigation Measures
6.1 Mitigation Measures
In the Vectos Preliminary Transport Assessment (PTA) issued in November 2014, mitigation measures
were proposed to address traffic congestion issues identified from the traffic modelling as a result of the
predicted demand with a range of 1,800-3,400 houses at Dunsfold Park. The following schemes were
proposed:
 A281/Kings Road and A281/Broadford Road, Shalford – schemes to signalise both junctions with
widening to provide additional lanes, requiring land outside of the highway boundary which is common
land;
 A281/Station Road, Bramley – a signalised junction to replace the existing mini-roundabout, with
reduced flow on the Snowdenham Lane arm as it would be closed to through traffic at its junction with
Iron Lane around half a mile to the south;
 A281/Elmbridge Road – widening to provide more lanes at the junction, maintaining a signalised
layout.
A planning application has now been submitted for Dunsfold, the accompanying Transport Assessment for
which no longer proposes mitigation measures for the Bramley mini-roundabout.
The above schemes have been assessed in capacity terms using the new traffic counts collected in 2015
and the impact of no mitigation in Bramley has also been assessed. As part of this, possible alternative
mitigation measures have also been investigated.
The A281 to the north of the Shalford roundabout is not considered within the Vectos report, so they have
not assessed the A281/A322 Onslow Street gyratory or the individual signal junction at the northern end of
the A281.
6.2 A281/A248 Kings Road and A281/A248 Broadford Road
The layout proposed by Vectos was tested which showed that it should be able to accommodate the
predicted demand in 2031, including the additional Dunsfold development traffic with up to 3,400 houses.
With the signal layout there was a maximum RFC of 0.89 as detailed in Table 6.1, which contains the 2015
and 2031 results with no mitigation for comparison. Table 6.2 shows the results for the Broadford road
junction which is again within capacity, with RFC values of less than 0.90 with 3,400 houses at Dunsfold.
It should be noted that the results from ARCADY and LINSIG are not exactly the same, in terms of how
queuing and delays are calculated and quoted due to the different operation of roundabouts and signal
junctions, but the comparison is adequate to demonstrate if the junction is close to or over-capacity. Also,
LINSIG results are usually quoted in terms of degree of saturation but this is effectively the same measure
as RFC. A signalised layout allows the capacity on all three approaches to the junction to be balanced
with the demand on each arm, as the signal timings can be adjusted. As a result, RFC values are not
always proportional to increased demand, as green times are adjusted to optimise the performance of the
whole junction.
34 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

The results are also shown for both junctions with additional housing at Cranleigh. Assuming a similar
improved layout, the junction would be well within capacity as the Cranleigh development flows are much
lower than those for Dunsfold. Without any mitigation, the results would be slightly worse than those for
2031 Base Case – Existing Roundabout, due to the additional traffic from Cranleigh, i.e. the junction would
be significantly over capacity with long queues and delays.
Table 6.1: A281/A248 Kings Road: Modelling Results

(PCUs) (PCUs)
Existing Demand 2015 – Existing Roundabout
A281 Horsham Rd N 5 22 0.77 97 368 1.11
A248 Kings Rd 162 610 1.20 8 35 1.03
A281 Horsham Rd S 96 332 1.10 16 41 1.02
2031 Base Case - Existing Roundabout
A281 Horsham Rd N 15 43 0.82 154 576 1.19
A248 Kings Rd 344 1159 1.42 12 58 1.05
A281 Horsham Rd S 251 809 1.21 29 65 1.02
2031 with 1,800 houses at Dunsfold - Existing Roundabout
A281 Horsham Rd N 25 64 0.90 284 956 1.30
A248 Kings Rd 388 1318 1.49 15 72 1.04
A281 Horsham Rd S 500 1382 1.33 95 242 1.09
2031 with 1,800 houses at Dunsfold – Proposed Signal Layout
A281 Horsham Rd N 13 28 0.80 16 18 0.83
A248 Kings Rd 11 40 0.83 10 56 0.83
A281 Horsham Rd S 16 31 0.76 12 45 0.81
A281 Horsham Rd N 12 23 0.75 22 23 0.88
A248 Kings Rd 11 40 0.83 11 57 0.83
A281 Horsham Rd S 12 31 0.78 13 56 0.86
A281 Horsham Rd N 18 28 0.84 21 23 0.89
A248 Kings Rd 11 43 0.85 10 52 0.80
A281 Horsham Rd S 13 36 0.88 13 59 0.85
2031 with 909 houses at Cranleigh – Proposed Signal Layout
A281 Horsham Rd N 15 31 0.82 21 22 0.85
A248 Kings Rd 12 37 0.84 11 58 0.83
A281 Horsham Rd S 12 41 0.81 13 53 0.83
Source: ARCADY Junctions 9 and LINSIG
35 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Table 6.2: A281/A248 Broadford Road: Modelling Results

(PCUs) (PCUs)
A281 Horsham Rd N 4 4 0.49 13 10 0.72
A281 Horsham Rd S 15 23 0.85 13 25 0.78
A248 Broadford Rd W 10 39 0.79 10 34 0.78
A281 Horsham Rd N 2 4 0.54 13 10 0.74
A281 Horsham Rd S 17 24 0.89 14 24 0.78
A248 Broadford Rd W 10 41 0.79 11 39 0.88
A281 Horsham Rd N 5 5 0.59 9 7 0.65
A281 Horsham Rd S 17 26 0.89 17 26 0.83
A248 Broadford Rd W 10 39 0.79 11 39 0.88
A281 Horsham Rd N 4 4 0.50 7 7 0.64
A281 Horsham Rd S 13 22 0.81 12 25 0.73
A248 Broadford Rd W 9 36 0.79 10 34 0.82
Source: LINSIG
As noted above, the proposed layout requires widening outside of the highway boundary some of which is
on common land to the west of the A281. It is understood that any common land lost would have to be
mitigated for by providing a similar size of new common land of similar value to the community. Whilst this
is not impossible to achieve, it is likely to be very difficult and time consuming, given the need for third
party land and the potential for objections from local residents and other stakeholders.
The proposed layout would have significant construction costs which are estimated to be of the order of
£0.75m-1.0m, even without considering the potential additional costs of land, negotiations and dealing with
objections. With complex planning issues to be addressed and the scale of improvement required, it is
likely that it would take up to five years to complete the planning procedures and build the scheme.
Alternatives to the signalised layout proposed have been investigated. Given how much the existing
roundabout is predicted to be over-capacity in the 2031 Base Case, minor improvements such as
extending the flare lengths (where the single lane approach widens to two lanes) would not provide
sufficient capacity. Any scheme that retained a roundabout would need to provide much longer two-lane
approaches, probably combined with two-lane exits, which would also involve enlarging the roundabout.
As such, an improved roundabout would also be likely to require common land.
36 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

6.3 A281/Station Road
A possible signalised layout has been tested for this junction, assuming that there would be minimal traffic
using Snowdenham Lane, in line with previous proposals by Vectos to ban through traffic from using it.
With this assumption, the results of the capacity analysis are detailed in Table 6.3.
With 1,800 houses the junction would be over capacity in the AM peak hour and close to capacity in the
PM peak hour. With 3,400 houses, maximum RFC values of 1.13 and 1.05 are predicted for the AM and
PM peaks respectively. Whilst these values are over the 0.90 threshold for operation within capacity, the
resultant delays predicted are around the same level as those currently experienced with the mini-
roundabout.
However, it should be noted that an improved junction is not now proposed in the Transport Assessment
that accompanied the planning application for Dunsfold in December 2015. The capacity results show that
this is likely to result in very long queues and delays, as the existing mini-roundabout is already over
capacity.
Should a signal scheme be progressed, further detailed work would be needed to confirm its acceptability,
to demonstrate that there is space for the necessary equipment and that the movements associated with
the existing garage have been considered. The restriction of access to Snowdenham Lane would also
need to be considered in terms of feasibility and the impacts on surrounding routes. Pedestrian crossing
facilities should be included and consideration given to safety improvements, as a number of accidents
involving cyclists have occurred at the existing junction.
Additional housing at Cranleigh is assumed to have no impact at Bramley (with traffic using the B2128 to
head north), so no results are shown for this scenario.
Alternatives to a signalised layout have also been considered. Whilst there is scope to widen the
carriageway south of the existing junction for a short length, by using the verge on the eastern side, the
mini-roundabout would need to be enlarged to allow two lanes to enter from the south. However, this
would not be possible if footways were retained without taking land from nearby properties, as their
boundary walls are immediately adjacent to the footway.
Even if changes to the roundabout could be made it would still be classed as a mini-roundabout due to its
size. Guidance on the design of mini-roundabouts (TD 54/07 ‘Design of Mini-Roundabouts’) states that
“the presence of two or more approach lanes encourages two abreast flow through the mini roundabout,
increasing the number of potential conflicts”. Therefore, widening one or more approach to two lanes
would probably worsen the accident rate which is already shown to above the national average for similar
junctions (Table 5.2). It is concluded that signalising the junction is the only viable option to increase its
capacity. The construction cost of such a signal scheme is estimated to be of the order of £0.2m-£0.3m. It
would be a relatively straight forward scheme that could be designed and constructed within two years.
37 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Table 6.3: A281/Station Road: Modelling Results

Queue Queue
Existing Demand 2015 – Existing Roundabout
A281 Horsham Rd N 10 50 0.93 30 122 1.08
Station Rd 2 15 0.71 3 19 0.75
A281 Horsham Rd S 76 344 1.17 4 19 0.79
2031 Base Case – Existing Roundabout
A281 Horsham Rd N 63 237 1.14 143 482 1.22
Station Rd 5 29 0.86 5 28 0.85
A281 Horsham Rd S 339 1507 1.44 7 33 0.90
2031 with Dunsfold – Existing Roundabout
A281 Horsham Rd N 128 458 1.25 359 1279 1.39
Station Rd 7 35 0.89 6 35 0.89
A281 Horsham Rd S 573 2502 1.63 32 131 1.05
A281 Horsham Rd N 62 148 1.04 45 60 0.97
Station Rd 37 176 1.05 19 112 0.97
A281 Horsham Rd S 76 128 1.04 13 16 0.59
A281 Horsham Rd N 65 154 1.05 59 91 1.01
Station Rd 46 238 1.09 24 151 1.01
A281 Horsham Rd S 104 196 1.08 14 16 0.61
A281 Horsham Rd N 67 155 1.05 80 151 1.05
Station Rd 57 305 1.13 26 163 1.02
A281 Horsham Rd S 131 256 1.12 14 51 0.63
38 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

6.4 A281/A322 Onslow Street Gyratory
Table 6.4 shows that taking the signal junction in isolation, it would still be below capacity even with the
Dunsfold development traffic. However, as noted earlier, this does not reflect the constraint that the overall
gyratory has on throughput. Further work would be required to assess the operation in detail, as well as to
assess potential changes to the layout that GBC is considering.
Table 6.4: A281/A322 Onslow Street Gyratory: Modelling Results

(PCUs) (PCUs)
Existing Demand 2015 – Existing Layout
A281 Millbrook 7 14 0.58 7 15 0.58
A322 Onslow Street 6 23 0.60 6 22 0.57
2031 Base Case – Existing Layout
A281 Millbrook 9 17 0.70 8 16 0.63
A322 Onslow Street 7 26 0.67 7 23 0.62
2031 with 1,800 houses at Dunsfold – Existing Layout
A281 Millbrook 10 16 0.73 8 15 0.65
A322 Onslow Street 8 31 0.75 7 25 0.65
Source: LINSIG
6.5 A281/B2130 Elmbridge Road /Dunsfold Road Signals
The improvement proposed by Vectos reduces congestion from that of the existing layout with the 2031
Base Case and is shown to be within capacity with the addition of 3,400 houses at Dunsfold (Table 6.5).
The maximum RFC value is 0.96 in the PM peak hour, with limited delays in both peak hours.
In terms of alternative options, given the current layout as a staggered crossroads, converting the junction
into a four-arm roundabout would require significant land take. This is because a large roundabout would
need to be provided but also re-alignment of the B2130 on one or both sides of the A281 to achieve
suitable geometry on the approach. As such, retaining but improving a signalised layout is considered the
most cost-effective solution to cater for increased traffic demand.
The construction cost of improving the signalised junction is estimated to be of the order of £0.5m-£0.7m
and it should be possible to design and construct the scheme within 2-3 years.
39 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Table 6.5: A281/B2130 Signals: Modelling Results

Queue Queue
Existing Demand 2015 – Existing Layout
A281 Horsham Rd N 3 10 0.29 10 16 0.64
B2130 Elmbridge Rd 6 41 0.69 8 44 0.78
A281 Horsham Rd S 10 15 0.65 4 12 0.34
B2130 Dunsfold Rd 5 38 0.64 6 37 0.67
2031 Base Case – Existing Layout
A281 Horsham Rd N 4 11 0.35 14 20 0.77
B2130 Elmbridge Rd 8 53 0.83 13 74 0.94
A281 Horsham Rd S 14 19 0.78 5 14 0.42
B2130 Dunsfold Rd 7 46 0.77 8 46 0.81
2031 with 1,800 houses at Dunsfold – Existing Layout
A281 Horsham Rd N 5 11 0.43 21 31 0.91
B2130 Elmbridge Rd 11 84 0.94 25 178 1.05
A281 Horsham Rd S 55 86 1.00 10 18 0.63
B2130 Dunsfold Rd 15 114 0.99 46 315 1.16
A281 Horsham Rd N 3 13 0.36 10 19 0.78
B2130 Elmbridge Rd 6 29 0.59 9 36 0.76
A281 Horsham Rd S 9 16 0.67 5 15 0.42
B2130 Dunsfold Rd 7 31 0.66 12 48 0.88
A281 Horsham Rd N 3 12 0.37 17 30 0.90
B2130 Elmbridge Rd 6 31 0.62 9 31 0.69
A281 Horsham Rd S 11 17 0.74 6 18 0.48
B2130 Dunsfold Rd 8 35 0.72 13 46 0.88
A281 Horsham Rd N 3 12 0.37 24 45 0.96
B2130 Elmbridge Rd 7 33 0.66 9 29 0.68
A281 Horsham Rd S 12 18 0.81 7 20 0.53
B2130 Dunsfold Rd 8 40 0.78 17 56 0.93
A281 Horsham Rd N 3 14 0.31 7 18 0.63
B2130 Elmbridge Rd 6 26 0.56 7 26 0.62
A281 Horsham Rd S 6 16 0.53 3 15 0.31
B2130 Dunsfold Rd 5 25 0.52 7 25 0.59
40 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

6.6 Conclusions from the Capacity Analysis
A summary of the results of the capacity analysis is given below:
A281 / Station Road junction in Bramley
Without any mitigation measures, as currently proposed as part of the December 2015 planning application
for Dunsfold, it is predicted that the problems already experienced would worsen substantially, leading to
very long queues and delays at peak times.
If a signalised junction layout was implemented, it is predicted that it would be over-capacity in the AM
peak in 2031 with 1,800 houses at Dunsfold, with a maximum RFC of 1.05. This RFC would be higher if
through traffic was not banned from using Snowdenham Lane. The RFC increases to 1.13 with 3,400
houses at Dunsfold, nevertheless, the average delay over the peak hour is predicted to be similar to that
currently experienced with the mini-roundabout.
Therefore, a signalised layout should largely mitigate for the impact of both Dunsfold development trips
and additional traffic due to general traffic growth but this is not included in the Transport Assessment
supporting the December 2015 planning application.
A281 / A248 junctions in Shalford
The proposed improvement scheme to signalise both the Kings Road and Broadford Road junctions would
operate within capacity, with a maximum RFC of less than 0.90 with 3,400 houses at Dunsfold. However,
it is noted that the scheme is reliant on widening onto the adjacent common land to provide additional
lanes. Obtaining approval for a scheme such as this is likely to be very difficult and time consuming but
the problem is not insurmountable.
A281 / B2130 junction
The proposed improved signalised junction layout is predicted to have a maximum RFC of less than 0.90
in 2031 with 1,800 houses at Dunsfold. With 3,400 houses, the junction should still operate within capacity
but the RFC would increase to 0.96.
The total cost of these three mitigation schemes is estimated to be of the order of £1.5m-£2.0m.
6.7 Potential Funding Sources
The most appropriate source of funding for mitigation measures would be through a Section 278
agreement, whereby the developer would be responsible for providing and funding or part-funding an
agreed set of infrastructure improvements.
41 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

It may also be appropriate for developer contributions from other nearby developments to be used to part-
fund improvements. Pooling of Section 106 contributions from up to five developments schemes can be
used to contribute to the cost of a particular piece of infrastructure. However, in the case of the A281,
there are unlikely to be any significant development schemes, other than Dunsfold, that could be judged as
having a direct impact on specific junctions.
Similarly, it would be difficult to justify applying contributions from developments in Cranleigh for measures
on the A281, and there are other infrastructure issues around Cranleigh that need to be addressed.
Another potential source of funding is through a Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP). Waverley is covered
by the Enterprise M3 LEP who allocate their Local Growth Fund awarded by the Government to help
deliver the vision and aims set out in their Growth Deal and Strategic Economic Plan. However, any
scheme put forward to the LEP should already be identified as a priority and be part of the Congestion
Programme in the Surrey Local Transport Plan (LTP). It should be noted that not all of the priority
schemes in the Surrey LTP made it through to the LEP delivery Plan, such as schemes to address
congestion hotspots in and around Farnham.
Other government funding sources are also likely to be available in the future but these would be bid for by
the LEP or Surrey CC.
42 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

7 Adequacy of SINTRAM
The total flow into each of the key junctions from SINTRAM for the 2009 average hour in the AM peak
period (07:00-10:00) is shown in Table 7.1, with comparison to the 2015 traffic counts. The B2130 junction
is the main area of concern, which is due to SINTRAM not validating here. Although the high flow on the
A281 from the south is replicated, all other arms into the junction have significantly lower modelled flows
than counted in 2009 and 2015.
Table 7.1: AM Peak Period – Average Hourly Flows

SINTRAM 2009 Traffic Count Difference
Junction 2015
Onslow Street gyratory 2743 2837 -3%
Shalford roundabout 2052 2304 -12%
Bramley Roundabout 1801 1765 +2%
B2130 Signal junction 942 1502 -38%
Source: SCC SINTRAM data and counts from 30 April 2015
In terms of predicted growth in demand for these junctions, the B2130 was by far the highest with a 56%
increase from SINTRAM for the 2031 Base Case. This is considered unrealistic due to a combination of
underestimation of flows in the 2009 Base Model and routings used in the model for trips to/from the south.
Therefore, similar growth to that predicted for the Bramley junction (20%) was used for the capacity
assessments presented in this report.
The above points relate to the use of data from SINTRAM for forecasting purposes. As outlined in the
Stage 1 report, the other issue is that SINTRAM is not suitable for assessing localised capacity problems
as it does not consider peak hour congestion and is a strategic model so does not include all minor roads.
43 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Appendices
Appendix A. Accident Plans _____________________________________________________________________ 45
44 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Waverley Borough Council Keyplan
Junction 1
Key
Link 1
Link 2
Link 3
Link 4
Junction 2 Link 5
Link 6
Link 7
Link 8
Junction 3
Junction 5
Junction 4
This document should not be relied on or used in circumstances other than those for which it was prepared and for which Mott MacDonald Limited was
commissioned. Mott MacDonald Limited accepts no responsibility for this document to any other party other than the person by whom it was commissioned Not to scale
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Transport Assessment

Scenarios for Distribution of Housing Growth -

Waverley Borough Council

Waverley Borough Council

Issue and revision record

Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description

B July 2015 S Finney A Palmer N Richardson Addresses comments

C November 2015 S Finney P Rapa N Richardson Includes additional scenarios

D February 2016 S Finney P Rapa N Richardson Addresses comments

Information class: Standard

This document contains confidential information and

351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Chapter Title Page

2 Peak Hour Demand 2

3 Future Traffic Demand 12

5 Road Safety Impacts 32

6 Development and Mitigation Measures 34

351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

 A281 / B2130 Elmbridge Road signals west of Cranleigh;

However, no improvement is proposed to the Station Road mini-roundabout in

351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

An improvement to convert the Station Road junction to a signalised layout was

351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

1.2 Scope of Work

The main requirements of Stage 2 are to:

1 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

2 Peak Hour Demand

2.1 Manual Classified Counts

Site 1 Part of signalised gyratory – A281/A322 Onslow Street/Bridge Street;

Site 2 3 arm standard roundabout at Shalford - A281/A248 Kings Road;

Site 3 4 arm mini roundabout at Bramley – A281/Station Lane/Snowdenham Lane;

Site 4 3 arm priority T- junction near Loxhill – B2130/Markwick Lane; and

The following vehicle classes were recorded:

2 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Figure 2.1: Location of Traffic Counts

Site 3 Roundabout junction

Source: © OpenStreetMap contributors.

3 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Figure 2.2: Peak Hour Traffic Flows – A281/A322 Onslow Street

Source: traffic count 30 April 2015, © OpenStreetMap contributors

4 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Figure 2.3: Peak Hour Traffic Flows – A281/A248 Kings Road

Source: traffic count 22 September 2015, © OpenStreetMap contributors

Figure 2.4: Peak Hour Traffic Flows – A281/B2128 Station Road

Source: traffic count 30 April 2015, © OpenStreetMap contributors

5 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Figure 2.5: Peak Hour Traffic Flows – A281/B2130 Elmbridge Road

Source: traffic count 22 September 2015, © OpenStreetMap contributors

2.2 Automatic Traffic Counts

In addition, Automatic Traffic Counts (ATC) were undertaken at two locations:

Site 6 A281 Horsham Road - North of Bramley Golf Club; and

Site 7 A281 Horsham Road - North of Mill Farm/Hall Place.

6 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Table 2.1: Peak Hour ATC Flows (vehicles/hour)

7 351663/ITD//02/D February 2016

Scenarios for Distribution of Housing Growth - Stage 2 Report

A281 Northbound A281 Southbound

1000 16:00-17:00 1000 17:00-18:00

A281 Northbound A281 Southbound

A281 / B2130 Elmbridge Road signals west of Cranleigh;