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The Magnificent-Equity Valuation
The Magnificent-Equity Valuation
CRORES
Interest Expense
Interest on Fixed Term Loans 52.47 27.52 15.18
Interest on debentures 53.67 13.87 18.24
Interest on current loans - 22.90
Others 71.13 50.70 39.89
462.23 (209.80) - - - -
138.25 139.58
379.16 482.31
144.51 80.83
245.58 285.01
196.32 222.65
60.01 63.33
27.46 33.60
18.31 20.39
1.27 1.03
6.00 6.00
- -
-
-
166.60 188.65
29.48 29.78
9.27 11.37
- -
570.79 713.00
3.40 5.05
45.95 75.91
288.90 378.66
21.57 21.38
- -
14.44 17.56
7.11 6.81
16.01 5.21
75.00 76.71
-
171.71 142.70
- -
0.81 1.60
45.92 56.45
14.07 0.01
15.44 36.57
FY24E
27,534.55
13,890.67
2,177.53
-
-
3,899.11
4,827.94
24,795.25
2,739.31
1,116.96
1,622.35
323.75
282.78
-
1,581.38
374.39
353.21
21.18
1,206.99
-
1,206.99
1,206.99
FY24E
4,827.94
FY24E
282.78
FY24E
135.59
171.85
14.46
-
-
1.85
323.75
APOLLO TYRES LIMITED FY15 FY16 FY17
CRORES
Assets
Net carrying value (Net Block at the end of year) 4,155.89 4,555.94 6,038.16
Freehold Land 160.38 241.92 218.99
Leasehold Land 15.79 17.33 17.12
Building 837.46 802.86 989.23
Plant and Equipment 2,946.18 3,266.50 4,545.90
Electrical Installations 81.38 73.94 101.32
Furniture and Fixtures 66.59 87.91 101.24
Vehicles 71.62 37.82 35.16
Office Equipment (24.93) 27.66 29.20
Share of Joint Ventures 1.42 - -
Intangible Assets
Net carrying value (Net Block at the end of year) 109.64 459.42 475.98
Computer Software 20.18 87.77 83.24
Trademarks 0.52 197.50 181.34
Capitalised Development 88.94 141.59 181.52
Other Intangibles - 32.56 29.88
Long term
Debentures 100.00 100.00 625.00
Term Loans
From Banks
ECB 114.76 55.21 171.30
Rupee term Loans - - -
Foreign Currency Non-Resident Term Loans - - -
Euro Term Loans - 286.26 986.80
From Others:
International Finance Corporation (IFC) - Loa 67.71 66.26 32.42
International Finance Corporation - Loan B 39.91 29.45 -
Magyar Import-Export Bank ZRT 94.22 328.03
Term Loans
From Banks
ECB 115.84 83.53 54.04
Rupee term Loans - - -
Foreign Currency Non-Resident Term Loans - - -
Euro Term Loans - 0.84 0.97
From Others:
International Finance Corporation (IFC) - Loa 22.57 33.13 32.43
International Finance Corporation - Loan B 19.96 29.45 -
Magyar Import-Export Bank ZRT - - -
Unsecured
From Banks - - -
Packing Credit 426.30 341.51 302.94
Working Capital demand Loan - - -
From Others
Commercial Paper - - 450.00
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
451.34 339.55 242.54 145.52 48.51 - -
32.59 - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
50.15 97.01 97.01 97.01 97.01 48.51 -
- - - - - - -
303.09 190.19 190.19 190.19 190.19 190.19 190.19
230.00 - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
Operating Activities
Investing Activities
Financing Activities
Reconciliation
Cash and Cash equivalents in balance sheet 594.59
Cash credits/bank overdrafts as at the end of the year 7.69
586.90
(Gain) / loss on reinstatement of foreign currency cash & cash equivalents (0.66)
Difference (0.00)
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
- - - - - - -
- 1,476.15 - - - -
58.23 1,756.90 1,503.79 883.66 - - -
(133.90) (169.62) (202.69) 1,610.23 63.93 (247.61)
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
(88.04) 461.14 (173.35) (354.43) - - -
(130.16) (123.68) (183.79) (206.89) (222.01) (246.10) (294.98)
(94.69) (65.83) (132.30) (181.86) (364.58) (367.05) (356.09)
(254.66) 1,894.63 2,320.88 (62.21) 1,023.64 (549.22) (898.68)
FY23E FY24E
1,383.15 1,581.38
1,405.44 1,440.71
1,062.62 1,116.96
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
342.82 323.75
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
(267.51) (303.58)
(455.11) (516.48)
(186.23) (211.34)
- -
(8.56) (9.71)
(73.73) (83.68)
- -
- -
317.68 360.52
83.78 95.08
54.66 62.04
- -
2,521.09 2,718.51
(308.94) (353.21)
- -
2,212.15 2,365.30
(1,300.00) (1,300.00)
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
(1,300.00) (1,300.00)
- -
- -
(98.13) (248.49)
- -
- -
- -
(329.92) (378.15)
(342.82) (323.75)
(770.87) (950.39)
- -
141.28 114.90
146.42 287.70
- -
287.70 402.61
380.96 495.87
94.60 94.60
286.36 401.27
- -
1.34 1.34
APOLLO TYRES LIMITED FY15 FY16 FY17
CRORES
Operational Details
Finance Cost
Finance Cost - Term Loans 123.60 78.22 55.07
Closing Debt 380.75 678.35 1,605.99
Average Debt Outstanding - 529.55 1,142.17
Interest % - 14.77% 4.82%
Basis:
Tax Expense
Current Tax
Basis: % of PBT 26.56% 26.34% 19.25%
Deferred Tax
FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E
254.89 - - - - - -
20.00% 20.00%
908.16 1,036.76 1,119.68 1,221.34 1,345.51 1,483.87 1,638.32
744.70 839.78 900.31 974.21 1,063.91 1,161.88 1,268.87
778,306.00 886,773.00
166,557.48 200,942.76
59,384.75 77,681.31
120,014.79 135,055.53
432,426.81 473,093.40
6,281.15 7,583.84
706.49 1,016.37
3,328.42 3,720.60
691.14 955.85
785.85 1,221.03
769.26 670.00
147.31 133.53
65.48 90.41
50.11 55.85
70,165.00 80,836.00
13,857.59 16,312.70
14,924.10 15,164.83
11,928.05 14,097.80
29,448.25 35,260.66
48.15% 49.87% 49.63% 50.15% 50.57% 50.89% 51.11%
129.80 125.95 150.00 132.56 113.06 135.49 129.80
57.53 70.15 69.62 68.54 68.80 70.10 70.10
Average of Last 3 year and increasing 1% in the current year and 0.5% thereafter
since Apollo has the Market Leadership in the Truck-Bas segment, so it wont be
affected much
.
Average of last 4 year and a reduction of 1% for the slowdown in the overall
economy and then increasing by .5% throughout for the revival of the economy
and increasing replacement market
Average of last 4 year and a reduction of 1% for the slowdown in the overall
economy and then increasing by .5% in the next 2 years and 1% thereafter for 2
wheeler being the untapped market
Average of last 4 year growth rate, reducing 2% for global downturn, then
increasing 1% for the 3rd year because of reviving economy.
Average of last 4 year and a reduction of 1% for the slowdown in the overall
economy and then increasing by 1% in the next 2 years for Truck-Bus since apollo
is the Market Leader
Average of last 4 year growth rate, reducing 2% for global downturn, then
increasing 1% for the next year because of reviving economy and then increasing
1% to bring itr back to the average rate
Average of last 4 year and a reduction of 1% for the slowdown in the overall
economy and then increasing by 1% in the next 2 years for Light truck being the
untapped market
Average of last 4 year growth rate, reducing 2% for global downturn, then
increasing 1% for the next year because of reviving economy and then increasing
1% to bring itr back to the average rate
Average of last 4 year and a reduction of 1% for the slowdown in the overall
economy and then increasing by 1% in the next 2 years for the growing
replacement market
Average of last 4 year and a reduction of 1% for the slowdown in the overall
economy and then increasing by 1% in the next 2 years for the growing
replacement market
Average of last 4 year and a reduction of 1% for the slowdown in the overall
economy and then increasing by 2% in the next year and 3% thereafter as CV is
untapped market in europe
Average of last 4 year and a reduction of 1% for the slowdown in the overall
economy and then increasing by 1% in the next 2 years for the growing
replacement market
Average of last 4 year growth rate, reducing 2% for global downturn, then
increasing 1% for the next year because of reviving economy and then increasing
1% to bring itr back to the average rate
Average of last 4 year growth rate, reducing 2% for global downturn, then
increasing 1% for the next year because of reviving economy and then increasing
1% to bring itr back to the average rate
Average of last year growth rate, reducing 2% for global downturn, then
increasing 2% for the next 4 year because CV being the untapped market, their
will be high growth considering the leadership of Apollo in the CV
Average of last 4 year growth rate, reducing 2% for global downturn, then
increasing 1% for the next year because of reviving economy and then increasing
1% to bring itr back to the average rate
CRORES
Other equity
Opening Balance + TCI fo the year - Dividend incl Tax + Other Adjustments
Dividend including tax (Rs Crores) 20.73 20.73 31.09
101.81 101.81 152.71
Dividend payout ratio 12.53% 10.45% 16.72%
1,002.14 802.75
Non Current Liabilities
Borrowings 12.23% 22.90%
From debt schedule
Current Liabilities
% of revenue from operations (average of 15-18)
Trade payables 6.97% 13.02% 13.14%
Others (part of other payables) 0.00% 2.24% 5.40%
Other Current Liabilities 3.02% 2.24% 1.94%
In the year 2018, there is sudden increase in other current liabilities on account of creditors for capital expenditure
ASSETS
PPE and Intangible Assets
Increase in Gross Block
Freehold Land 81.54 (22.93)
Leasehold Land 1.74 -
Buildings 18.23 203.76
Plant and Equipment 992.49 1,318.19
Electrical Installations 7.69 43.48
Furniture and Fixtures 49.30 25.61
Vehicles 12.33 (0.16)
Office Equipment 68.44 3.66
Share of Joint Ventures (2.39) -
Computer Software 180.05 3.68
Trademarks 196.74 (16.43)
Capitalised Development 153.54 40.33
Other Intangibles 32.56 (2.68)
1,792.26 1,596.51
Current Assets
Inventories 13.88% 16.37% 20.07%
35.28 38.22 - - - - -
171.62 185.92 222.01 246.10 294.98 329.92 378.15
28.58% 32.97% 31.33% 31.33% 31.33% 31.33% 31.33%
622.38 592.11
41.92 (3.44)
- 0.65
960.34 292.42
3,120.58 1,387.15
209.59 69.53
58.83 28.44
14.87 12.50
54.47 (5.56)
- -
104.87 4.31
29.68 (6.83)
168.69 70.53
4.84 (1.14)
4,768.68 1,848.56
VALUE OF DEBT:
Book Value
3,008.81
1.04 1.15 0.87
0.13
3.14
403.97
7.80% 7.50% Total 0-1% above USD-LI 0.25-1.25% above
4/29/2022 10/21/2021 3 equal annual inst 3 equal annual inst
149.68 105.00 1,074.03 171.71 171.67
1,500.00 - -
- - -
149.68 105.00 2,574.03 171.71 171.67
11.67 7.88
- - - - 5.50
- - - -
- - - - 0.47
- - - - 5.03
Euro term loans from banks
EURIBOR + 2.25%
installments startedEURIBOR + 2.25%
installments startedEURIBOR
from February + 2.25%
installments startedEURIBOR
from February + 1.85%
installments startedEURIBOR
from February + 1.85%
installments
from February
started from February
11, 2019 11, 2019 11, 2019 11, 2019 11, 2019
299.13 299.13 299.13 291.04 145.52
- - - - -
59.29 59.29 59.29 64.68 32.34
239.84 239.84 239.84 226.37 113.18
- - - - 515.28
- - -
- - 275.34
- - - - 239.94
- - - - 239.94
- - -
- - 234.91
- - - - 5.03
Term loan from
Others 0.17% above OneRupee1.13%
Termabove
Loan from
One Banks Finance lease - defe
EURIBOR + 1.85%
installments startedyear
offromMCLR
112.50
February year T-bill
Million beginning from Total 7-8%
installments started from May 15,
11, 2019 July 30, 2022 Bullet payment on March 29, 2022 2007
436.56 149.56 50.00 199.56 4.46
- - - - -
97.01 - - 0.41
339.55 149.56 50.00 199.56 4.05
- - 3.637
0
0.41
- - 3.227
- - 3.227
0
0.41
- - 2.817
- - 2.817
0
0.41
- - 2.407
APOLLO TYRES LIMITED
CRORES
4,373.69 11,581.14
FCFF Valuation
Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Firm 15,954.83
Present Value of FCFF from FY 19E-28E 4,373.69
Terminal Value 11,581.14
Less: Debt (4,542.21)
Discount Rate
Cost of debt 5.29%
Cost of equity 10.46%
WACC 9.11%
Cost of debt 5.29% We have taken this on the basis of invetsor presentation pre
Debenture 1,074.03 8.65%
Term Loans 3,472.11 4.25%
4,546.14
Cost of equity
Risk free rate of return 6.50% Recent 10 year GSEC Return
Equity risk premium 3.60%
Beta 1.10 10.46% Bloomberg
Relative Valuation:
P/E Multiple
PRICE 226.10
EV/EBITDA Multiple
EV 180,012
DEBT 37,613
EQUITY 142,399
SHARES 572
PRICE 248.93
EV/Sales Multiple
EV 188,985
DEBT 45,420
EQUITY 143,565
SHARES 572
PRICE 250.97
FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E FY26E
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1,798.37 1,921.28 2,088.82 2,212.15 2,365.30 2,483.56 2,607.74
67.90% 6.83% 8.72% 5.90% 6.92% 5.00% 5.00%
Sensitivity Analysis
WACC
209 8.11% 9.11% 10.11% 11.11% 12.11%
3.00%
Terminal
Growth Rate 4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
Beneish M-Score
Parameters Glossary
Year 2018 2019 SGA Selling, General and Administrative Expen
Net Sales 15097.744 17548.843 CA Current Assets
Cost of Goods 8650.394 10126.476 DSRI Days Sales in Receivables Index
Net Receivables 1435.03 1154.683 GMI Gross Margin Index
Current Assets 6898.959 5728.914 AQI Asset Quality Index
Property, Plant and Equipment 9528.684 10883.886 SGI Sales Growth Index
Depreciation 592.554 812.671 DEPI Depreciation Index
Total Assets 20153.245 20043.724 SGAI Sales, General and Administrative Expense
SGA Expense 4793.754 5463.736 LVGI Leverage Index
Net Income 723.882 679.84 TATA Total Accruals to Total Assets
Cash Flow from Operations 1719.673 1071.116
Current Liabilities 4962.025 4216.883
Long-term Debt 3769.093 4167.86
Derived Variables
Other L/T Assets [TA-(CA+PPE)] 3725.602 3430.924
DSRI 0.692
GMI 0.990
AQI 0.926
SGI 1.162
DEPI 1.187
SGAI 0.981
TATA -0.049
LVGI 0.966
M-score
5 variable model -3.09 if M > -2.22, firm is likely to be a manipulator
8 variable model -2.85 if M > -1.8, firm is likely to be a manipulator
Notes
5 variable equationM = -6.065+ .823 DSRI + .906 GMI + .593 AQI + .717 SGI + .107 DEPI
8 variable equationM = -4.84 + .920 DSRI + .528 GMI + .404 AQI + .892 SGI + .115 DEPI -.172 SGAI + 4.679 Accrual to TA - .327
and Administrative Expenses
ceivables Index
o Total Assets
Altman Z-Score
Input data FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Working capital 1,172.76 1,107.23 561.01 1,936.96
Total assets 8,629.48 11,653.83 15,296.12 20,153.25
Retained earnings 4,991.39 6,553.71 7,239.05 9,719.47
EBIT 1,542.31 1,616.57 1,386.92 1,058.72
Market Capitalisation 8,919.43 8,876.96 10,622.83 15,850.03
Total Liabilities 3,587.18 5,049.22 8,006.17 10,376.57
Net sales 12,725.69 12,851.53 14,169.96 15,097.74
Required Ratios
X1 = Working Capital / Total Assets 0.14 0.10 0.04 0.10
X2 = Retained Earnings / Total Assets 0.58 0.56 0.47 0.48
X3 = EBIT / Total Assets 0.18 0.14 0.09 0.05
X4 = Market Cap / Total Liabilities 2.49 1.76 1.33 1.53
X5 = Net Sales / Total Assets 1.47 1.10 0.93 0.75
Altman Z-Score 4.53 3.52 2.73 2.63
FY19
1,512.04
20,043.73
9,982.61
1,097.98
12,817.90
10,003.91
17,548.84
0.08
0.50
0.05
1.28
0.88
2.61
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