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Corporate Foresight: The Alien Nature of Business Visioning and Pre-Emptive Action
Corporate Foresight: The Alien Nature of Business Visioning and Pre-Emptive Action
ABSTRACT (ABSTRACT)
There has never been a business arena quite like the "New Economy" that has resulted in so many lessons, so fast,
in what NOT to do. Corporate foresight, business intelligence and early warning systems are promising tool-based
solutions, but many executives still fail to place these on their list of priorities. Achieving effective corporate
foresight is a matter of personal perception and is therefore difficult to address from an executive viewpoint.
Be more curious: Surround yourself with inquisitive people and encourage them. Look for secondary
consequences in emerging trends, challenge common assumptions, search for anomalies and opposites. Don't
settle for obvious explanations, and follow Yogi Berra's advice: "You can see a lot of things by lookin'."
Create alternatives: The future will unfold in many diverse ways. Welcome this uncertainty as an invitation to
unlimited possibilities. Lee Iacocca demanded at least a "chocolate and vanilla" alternative when making an
important decision. If more than five million dollars was at stake, he would also insist on having a "strawberry"
option.
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There has never been a business arena quite like the "New Economy" that has resulted in so many lessons, so fast,
in what NOT to do. Corporate foresight, business intelligence and early warning systems are promising tool-based
solutions, but many executives still fail to place these on their list of priorities. Achieving effective corporate
foresight is a matter of personal perception and is therefore difficult to address from an executive viewpoint.
Why does the art of foresight remain a mystery? The following are some of the most common pitfalls.
Discounting future problems: We tend to apply a psychological discount rate to our perception of future problems.
Therefore, distant potential problems are perceived as posing no immediate threat. Hastily implemented
countermeasures may plug the leaks in a crisis, but crucial reaction time has been wasted and the opportunity to
invent a solution has been lost.
No time for planning: Today, companies must move quickly to secure a competitive edge. There is little incentive
to spend time or effort on long-term strategic planning when easily identifiable surgical strikes can quickly result in
a visible win. Studies show that executives spend less than four percent of their time on future-oriented planning
tasks.
Overconfidence and excessive optimism: Entrepreneurs are often obsessed with their personal business ideas or
inventions, blindfolding themselves to reality. Confidence in ones ingenuity and infallibility should not be a
restraint in developing a "what if?" Plan B strategy.
Self-fulfilling prophecy: The human psyche urges us to keep our own ideas and opinions free from conflict.
Intuitively, we seek evidence to support our beliefs and decisions.
Overwhelming complexity: Many organizations see the future unfolding on the edge of chaos, leading to a single
inevitable outcome that victimizes them. This notion often stalls foresight activities.
Lack of imagination: Today's demanding workplaces have fostered specialization and narrow-focused tasks.
Employees and executives alike are trained to avoid ambiguity, speculation and hypotheses, and instead strive for
DETAILS
Volume: 105
Issue: 6
Pages: 49
Number of pages: 0
Publication subject: Forests And Forestry--Lumber And Wood, Paper And Pulp
ISSN: 03164004