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Us Capital Trends: The Big Picture
Us Capital Trends: The Big Picture
140
120 The comparison to ‘07 has some investors asking if the
market is at a peak. The bedrock of the market is tied to
120 single asset sales and these show no signs of decline,
90
100 however. When investors are underwriting the acquisition
of individual assets there are no portfolio effects to paper
80
60 over the poor performance of a bad asset.
60
Investors are still finding opportunities in
40 commercial property investments even as prices are
30
5%
In This Issue: We report on Q3’18 trends in
0%
acquisition volume and pricing, and examine longer-
term trends in cap rates. We look at acquisition
trends across market tiers and rank the top players,
-5%
'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 deals and markets.
©2018 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed or warranted; subject to future revision. 1
5%
US CAPITAL TRENDS | BIG PICTURE
0%
in inflation.
180 Property Prices*
Investor caution and price sensitivity can in part be seen 160
20%
in the growth in deal volume by location. Volume in the 140
6 Major Metros grew at only a 5% YOY pace in Q3’18
120
15%
whereas in the Non-Major Metro areas, volume was up
100
25% YOY. On average, across property sectors, there
80
was about 160 bps of spread between cap rates for 10%
60
these geographic areas.
40
5%
Cap rates were flat-to-down in Q3’18, despite eight 20
increases in the target range for the fed funds rate since
0%0
the end of 2015. Investors have been anticipating cap '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
rate increases for some time now – almost hoping for
increases in some cases. To the extent there are changes -5% RCA CPPI™
'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
in cap rates coming, it may be some time before cap
rates move up measurably. *YOY change in RCA CPPI
Q 3‘18 | ©2018 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed or warranted; subject to future revision. 2
US CAPITAL TRENDS | BIG PICTURE
the office and retail sectors were unchanged from Vol ($b) YOY Chg Vol ($b) YOY Chg
a year earlier and mostly flat over the last year. All Major Metros 152.6 4% 43.0 -4%
sectors but hotels are at or near cyclic low points for Tier 1 Secondary 87.2 7% 32.3 16%
cap rates. Tier 2 Secondary 85.4 3% 37.8 4%
Tertiary 56.3 4% 29.2 29%
With the 10yr UST jumping past the 3.2% range in Market tiers may not sum to total national volume due to deal volume not allocated geographically
October, a sense of caution may return to buyers Major Metros are Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco and DC
who might demand upward adjustments to cap rates Tier 1 Secondary Markets are Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Miami, Phoenix,
San Diego, Seattle ; Tier 2 Secondary Markets are all other secondary markets
before making new investments. At the same time,
owners of properties will be hesitant to accept higher
cap rates at sale when they look back at comparable Cap Rate Trends by Sector
properties that have sold over the last few quarters
where cap rates have been relatively flat. Long-term avg Current avg Historic high/low
10.0%
In combination, buyers and sellers may move further
apart on price expectations so long as volatility 9.0%
reigns in the equity and bond markets. Rather than
cap rates bearing the initial burden of adjusting to
8.0%
the higher rate environment, growth in deal volume
Hotel
may give first, as buyers and sellers retreat to their
corners of the deal table. This behavior is what was 7.0%
period in 2017. 10
3.5%
5
0 3.0%
'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Q 3‘18 | ©2018 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed or warranted; subject to future revision. 3
US CAPITAL TRENDS | BIG PICTURE
Top Markets
Manhattan has retaken the lead as the largest investment Dallas has hit a record high level of deal volume in 2018 so
market in the U.S., displacing Los Angeles which occupied far. One sector alone is not driving this record high: year-to-
the #1 slot in 2017. It was a rebound in the hotel sector, date deal volume in Dallas ranks the market in the top five
and, especially, the office sector which drove this rebound most active markets for the apartment, retail and industrial
for Manhattan. Manhattan was the #1 market for both sectors, and at #6 for the office sector.
these sectors for the year to date.
Six out of the top 25 most active markets posted record
Los Angeles has slipped to #2 in the rankings, but the high levels of transaction volume in 2018 for the year to
market is still highly liquid and deal volume is growing. Los date. Large portfolios and exposure to some of the entity-
Angeles was in the #1 slot in the rankings for both the level transactions this year have helped boost these figures.
apartment and retail sectors for the year to date. This said,
exposure to megadeals centered on this market did help
boost these figures.
3 3 3 Dallas 16,438 3%
6 5 5 Atlanta 12,724 4%
17 12 15 No NJ 7,132 -8%
18 19 18 Austin 5,544 0%
20 18 21 Orlando 5,008 4%
24 21 22 Philadelphia 4,971 1%
Markets in orange denote record high YTD volume in YTD’18 Office, industrial, retail, apartment, hotel & senior housing; dev sites not included
Q 3‘18 | ©2018 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed or warranted; subject to future revision. 4
US CAPITAL TRENDS | BIG PICTURE
YTD through Q3’18 Vol ($m) # Props Vol ($m) # Props Vol ($m) # Props Vol ($m) # Props Vol ($m) # Props Vol ($m) # Props Vol ($m) # Props Vol ($m) # Props
Baltimore 720.2 41 1,137.7 108 797.9 28 1,119.3 38 231.6 11 67.5 9 97.6 15 4,171.8 250
Mid-Atlantic DC 2,904.5 40 71.2 7 111.8 16 751.3 29 356.5 5 66.0 6 27.0 1 4,288.3 104
DC MD burbs 578.2 31 598.0 56 807.5 27 1,928.0 51 115.0 6 26.5 5 292.5 17 4,345.6 193
DC VA burbs 2,538.7 72 615.0 43 864.3 42 2,474.1 34 884.9 16 613.3 32 129.9 11 8,120.2 250
Philadelphia 1,343.4 79 725.8 98 516.9 35 1,740.1 70 412.5 9 99.0 12 232.7 28 5,070.3 331
Pittsburgh 222.6 20 73.5 12 164.1 18 320.4 11 90.5 7 23.8 5 56.0 14 951.0 87
Richmond/Norfolk 355.9 29 309.4 36 390.9 33 746.8 60 294.5 20 15.7 4 61.5 7 2,174.9 189
Tertiary Mid-Atlantic 451.5 63 2,066.7 147 617.1 70 1,212.6 146 265.9 43 183.9 24 583.5 60 5,381.2 553
Total 9,158.4 380 5,597.4 507 4,270.5 269 10,382.7 452 2,651.2 117 1,095.8 97 1,480.7 153 34,636.7 1,975
Chicago 5,083.4 131 4,373.8 390 2,827.5 187 2,989.3 124 404.9 22 380.2 42 332.9 29 16,392.0 925
Midwest Cincinnati 248.8 21 580.4 53 336.6 24 427.2 37 72.1 14 56.3 10 247.1 18 1,968.5 177
Cleveland 148.4 10 101.5 15 307.3 27 296.6 18 88.1 10 3.3 1 107.1 20 1,052.4 101
Columbus 270.4 24 1,144.8 60 196.9 25 725.8 34 48.1 7 38.2 7 84.9 8 2,509.1 165
Detroit 325.6 40 479.8 78 397.2 55 275.3 29 57.5 5 115.9 10 92.3 16 1,743.5 233
Indianapolis 498.7 44 678.6 68 290.8 39 530.5 35 252.6 18 24.3 4 147.0 8 2,422.6 216
Kansas City 268.3 28 351.2 36 239.0 31 503.8 36 227.6 23 24.7 3 27.5 2 1,642.0 159
Minneapolis 1,467.2 54 755.9 107 605.9 53 1,155.7 66 182.2 13 87.3 19 35.4 3 4,289.6 315
St Louis 348.6 36 433.0 55 449.9 44 820.3 45 261.0 20 30.1 7 51.6 8 2,394.5 215
Tertiary Midwest 1,478.4 174 1,818.6 251 3,083.9 295 3,204.5 232 1,183.1 157 152.9 38 923.9 141 11,845.2 1,288
Total 10,137.8 562 11,035.5 1,136 8,741.0 782 10,942.4 657 2,777.3 289 913.2 141 2,049.7 253 46,596.8 3,820
Boston 4,015.5 101 1,308.1 82 687.8 65 1,496.5 59 652.0 13 238.2 13 8.5 2 8,406.6 335
Northeast Hartford 54.6 5 248.3 13 219.5 10 318.0 19 8.0 2 6.9 2 8.3 3 863.5 54
Long Island 337.9 34 351.1 71 980.1 38 122.0 12 109.2 5 58.4 9 172.7 5 2,131.3 174
Manhattan 13,507.0 83 43.1 3 2,942.7 116 4,309.0 164 2,221.8 15 1,017.3 20 25.0 1 24,065.9 402
No NJ 1,401.5 95 1,991.5 154 1,677.8 84 1,706.4 189 146.4 10 700.1 51 208.4 12 7,832.2 595
NYC Boroughs 553.2 34 1,397.2 107 1,479.8 167 4,224.9 279 170.7 6 1,025.1 68 174.5 5 9,025.3 666
Stamford 259.8 15 90.6 6 352.2 8 401.5 11 30.0 2 10.5 1 1,144.6 43
Westchester 469.1 37 125.0 11 169.5 21 460.2 25 12.4 2 6.6 2 62.7 2 1,305.6 100
Tertiary Northeast 843.0 77 685.3 81 1,582.7 107 1,415.5 82 462.6 40 91.3 17 211.7 19 5,292.3 423
Total 21,456.3 482 6,362.5 539 10,092.2 616 14,528.9 896 3,813.1 95 3,143.9 182 882.2 50 60,279.0 2,860
Atlanta 2,683.4 118 2,487.4 174 1,396.5 117 5,337.3 176 512.9 37 191.7 33 306.3 17 12,915.4 672
Southeast Broward 677.9 49 458.0 57 680.8 49 754.3 33 537.1 14 192.0 20 67.1 8 3,367.2 230
Charlotte 958.7 41 795.3 79 367.9 48 1,839.5 73 142.1 15 79.8 15 88.9 6 4,272.1 277
Jacksonville 385.9 16 392.2 17 171.3 23 849.8 39 116.4 12 70.5 13 71.2 5 2,057.3 125
Memphis 34.9 7 542.2 38 125.5 16 437.8 33 163.7 14 20.9 5 36.2 3 1,361.2 116
Miami 1,174.1 50 1,007.0 110 1,139.7 87 1,014.8 70 179.6 13 415.4 52 90.5 6 5,021.1 388
Nashville 699.8 43 639.2 62 341.1 39 1,090.9 34 256.0 15 173.3 23 100.2 8 3,300.5 224
Orlando 657.3 58 851.7 85 622.2 61 2,470.5 58 330.3 22 244.8 28 76.0 6 5,252.8 318
Palm Beach 576.3 31 118.9 18 400.5 33 1,090.2 30 169.1 5 188.6 17 355.4 14 2,899.0 148
Raleigh/Durham 1,674.0 78 179.7 22 461.3 33 2,007.0 52 53.2 7 115.8 20 88.3 2 4,579.4 214
Tampa 552.1 54 328.4 46 920.9 66 1,850.0 71 581.7 21 102.2 19 217.6 22 4,552.8 299
Tertiary Southeast 1,671.2 221 2,801.4 282 5,233.2 479 8,890.6 578 2,265.1 234 731.2 121 911.8 103 22,504.5 2,018
Total 11,791.1 768 10,753.7 1,019 11,861.0 1,051 27,632.7 1,247 5,307.1 409 2,526.1 366 2,409.5 200 72,281.2 5,060
Austin 1,159.6 44 665.4 75 421.6 52 2,815.4 74 318.5 23 218.2 26 163.4 6 5,762.2 300
Southwest Dallas 3,373.6 129 3,315.3 298 2,474.2 171 6,405.7 284 575.2 45 586.8 54 293.8 21 17,024.6 1,002
Denver 1,951.0 78 1,239.1 123 1,081.8 99 3,551.6 119 628.5 22 375.2 48 275.3 9 9,102.6 498
Houston 2,214.9 93 1,935.9 183 2,165.8 149 5,559.0 198 329.8 24 481.8 56 82.9 5 12,770.1 708
Phoenix 2,258.0 120 1,757.4 150 1,053.0 113 4,963.1 166 1,469.9 42 649.6 64 125.9 8 12,277.0 663
San Antonio 444.5 34 235.1 37 634.9 42 1,604.3 72 705.5 11 51.6 11 41.2 6 3,717.1 213
Tertiary Southwest 1,423.8 155 1,232.3 157 2,123.8 203 4,495.3 337 1,219.4 142 201.1 44 314.8 30 11,010.5 1,068
Total 12,825.5 653 10,720.5 1,065 9,955.1 829 29,394.4 1,250 5,246.8 309 2,564.4 303 1,297.3 85 72,003.9 4,494
East Bay 1,806.9 76 1,535.4 128 377.5 47 1,540.4 77 72.6 4 364.3 40 71.2 6 5,768.3 378
West Inland Empire 392.8 37 2,969.6 209 919.8 76 1,172.3 55 425.9 15 714.8 56 57.8 5 6,653.1 453
Las Vegas 678.1 58 758.8 78 1,278.2 56 1,596.2 60 470.5 8 561.3 41 11.7 2 5,354.9 303
Los Angeles 5,102.9 199 3,277.0 354 5,219.4 231 7,036.5 567 654.3 17 557.2 56 63.5 5 21,910.9 1,429
Orange Co 1,937.2 109 1,328.0 149 806.3 69 1,161.7 62 192.3 10 157.9 17 35.9 3 5,619.2 419
Portland 1,003.7 59 450.6 71 569.5 34 1,266.9 82 255.6 7 111.5 22 189.9 8 3,847.7 283
Sacramento 965.2 61 594.0 64 657.8 53 1,120.8 79 169.8 10 123.6 18 84.5 5 3,715.8 290
Salt Lake City 293.2 22 449.7 65 386.8 30 876.8 34 100.4 10 216.4 19 163.7 9 2,486.9 189
San Diego 1,851.8 76 709.7 81 1,599.1 64 1,271.7 95 183.1 16 281.2 33 58.4 3 5,955.0 368
San Francisco 3,235.1 57 885.6 52 616.0 39 1,562.6 127 1,077.9 16 946.0 22 42.0 2 8,365.3 315
San Jose 3,179.0 63 1,597.9 88 927.3 42 1,157.4 41 322.3 4 424.3 23 31.7 3 7,640.0 264
Seattle 4,539.8 130 1,669.8 146 1,549.7 99 3,428.2 182 558.4 25 584.8 65 238.8 11 12,569.5 658
Tertiary West 1,764.5 179 2,705.3 277 3,942.2 252 4,076.3 228 3,135.5 117 723.2 96 846.6 62 17,193.5 1,211
Total 26,750.3 1,126 19,037.7 1,771 18,849.6 1,092 27,267.9 1,689 7,618.5 259 5,766.7 508 1,908.8 127 107,199.4 6,572
Total Total US 92,553.0 3,984 64,101.5 6,089 63,769.3 4,639 120,149.0 6,191 27,506.3 1,493 16,010.0 1,597 10,072.2 875 394,161.4 24,868
Q 3‘18 | ©2018 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed or warranted; subject to future revision. 5
US CAPITAL TRENDS | BIG PICTURE
Brookfield AM GGP
Mid-Atlantic Buyers Sellers
Prologis DCT Industrial
Brookfield AM Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield Westfield Corp
Welltower Brookfield AM GGP
Greystar EdR
Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield Prologis DCT Industrial
BREIT Blackstone
JP Morgan Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield Westfield Corp
Bank of China GLP (REOC)
AIMCo Greystar EdR
Hillhouse Capital Starwood Capital
BREIT Blackstone
SMG Eastern Caisse de Depot
Bank of China GLP (REOC)
Hopu Investment Exeter
Hillhouse Capital Starwood Capital
Midwest China Vanke Jamestown
SMG Eastern Caisse de Depot
Brookfield AM Blackstone CBRE Global Investors
Hopu Investment Exeter
Prologis Alphabet Inc JP Morgan
China Vanke Jamestown
Sterling Bay Cos Welltower Crow Holdings
Blackstone CBRE Global Investors
Greystar Mapletree Commercial SL Green
JP Morgan Alphabet Inc JP Morgan
Rockpoint Group QCP Inc
Welltower Crow Holdings
Goldman Sachs Greystar
Mapletree Commercial SL Green
JP Morgan Principal Financial
Rockpoint Group QCP Inc
Northeast Bridge Investment Grp TIAA
Goldman Sachs Greystar
Brookfield AM Fortress Hines
JP Morgan Principal Financial
Alphabet Inc Invesco Cabot Properties
Bridge Investment Grp TIAA
Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield CBRE Global Investors GIC
Fortress Hines
Rockpoint Group Starwood Capital PGIM Real Estate
Invesco Cabot Properties
Silverstein Properties CPP Investment Board UBS
CBRE Global Investors GIC
TIAA
Starwood Capital Brookfield
PGIM Real Estate AM
Sterling Bay
CPP Investment Cos
Board Kushner Companies
UBS
Southeast TIAA 0.0 20.0 40.0 Brookfield AM 0.0 10.0 20.0
Brookfield AM Sterling Bay Cos Kushner Companies
Greystar
0.0 15.0 30.0 0.0 10.0 20.0
Prologis
Starwood Capital
Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield By Number of Properties
Buyers Sellers
Southwest China Vanke GLP (REOC)
Brookfield AM Bank of China DCT Industrial
Prologis Hopu Investment QCP Inc
BREIT SMG Eastern GGP
Greystar Hillhouse Capital Blackstone
Blackstone Prologis Riveredge Management
Brookfield AM Cabot Properties
Welltower Exeter
West BREIT Lindsay Goldberg
Brookfield AM Mapletree Commercial Greenfield Partners
Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield Greystar EdR
Prologis Investcorp Starwood Capital
Blackstone Blackstone LNR Property Corp
Greystar JP Morgan H&R REIT
River Rock Capital Welltower
Methodology: Rankings are based on the pro-rated share of the total property or portfolio value. In the case of joint ventures, full credit is assigned to each investor. For more information please visit the RCA website.
Q 3‘18 | ©2018 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed or warranted; subject to future revision. 6
US CAPITAL TRENDS | BIG PICTURE
Methodology: Full credit assigned to each broker when multiple brokers involved. For partial-interest, volume is based on the pro-rated share of the total property or portfolio value. Based on sell-side representation.
The transaction volume of brokerage firms that have merged are left unconsolidated before the merger date and are attributed to the surviving or newly formed company after the merger date. For more information
on rankings please visit the RCA website.
Q 3‘18 | ©2018 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed or warranted; subject to future revision. 7
US CAPITAL TRENDS | BIG PICTURE
Property Sales
Property Location Size Type Volume ($m)∆ $/unit Buyer Seller
1 666 Fifth (Condo Leasehold) New York, NY 1,426,395 sq ft OFF 1,286.1 902 Brookfield AM Kushner Companies
2 4 Hudson Square New York, NY 393,488 sq ft OFF 650.0 1,652 Disney Trinity Real Estate JV NBIM
3 Santa Monica Business Park Santa Monica, CA 1,200,000 sq ft OFF 627.3 523 Boston Properties JV CPP Invmt Board Blackstone
4 JW Marriott San Antonio, TX 1,002 units HTL 616.0 614,770 Blackstone Miller Global Props JV Principal Financial
5 The Plaza Hotel New York, NY 230 units HTL 600.0 2,608,696 QIA Sahara India Pariwar JV Dream Hotel Grp
6 Pier 4 Offices Boston, MA 373,000 sq ft OFF 450.0 1,206 CommonWealth Partners Tishman Speyer JV China Life
7 Archstone 101 West End New York, NY 506 units APT 416.1 822,332 Dermot Co JV PGGM (NL) Equity Residential
8 Washington Harbour Washington, DC 557,961 sq ft OFF 415.0 744 Global Holdings Principal Financial JV Hana Financial Grp
9 Memorial Hermann Medical Plaza Houston, TX 510,000 sq ft OFF 404.7 794 LaSalle Memorial Hermann Hosp Sys JV Mischer Invmts
10 El Rancho Verde San Jose, CA 700 units APT 370.0 528,571 WNC & Associates, Inc CRC Partners
11 Hewlett Packard Palo Alto, CA 516,963 sq ft OFF - - Sand Hill Prop Co Hewlett-Packard
12 400 Fairview Seattle, WA 336,000 sq ft OFF 338.4 1,007 Pembroke Real Estate TIAA JV Skanska AB
13 Northshore Austin, TX 439 units APT - - American Realty Advisors Trammell Crow Co (CBRE) JV The Hanover Co
14 John Hancock Tower (Condo) Chicago, IL 856,000 sq ft OFF 305.0 356 Sterling Bay Cos Lynd JV Mount Kellett
15 301 Howard San Francisco, CA 307,000 sq ft OFF 292.5 953 CalSTRS JV DivcoWest Vanbarton Group JV
16 The Newbry Boston, MA 607,685 sq ft OFF 290.9 * 959 Norges Bank Inv Mgmt (NBIM) TIAA
17 Chelsea 540 New York, NY 165,000 sq ft OFF 257.0 1,558 Ramrock Real Estate Savanna JV Silvermintz Family
18 Lenox Park Atlanta, GA 1,077,599 sq ft OFF 251.5 233 Bridge Investment Grp Fortress
19 468 North Rodeo Drive Beverly Hills, CA 22,250 sq ft RET 245.0 11,011 LVMH Robert Stanley Anderson Trust JV John L Smaha
20 The Landing at MIA Miami, FL 1,050,761 sq ft OFF 242.3 231 Crocker Partners JV Walton Street Capital CBRE Global Investors
21 Social Security Admin HQ Baltimore, MD 538,000 sq ft OFF 242.0 450 CoreCivic JBG Cos
22 828-830 Winter Street Waltham, MA 326,910 sq ft IND 240.0 734 Morgan Stanley Carlyle Group
23 1670 Broadway Denver, CO 703,654 sq ft OFF 238.0 338 Daniel J Mann UBS
24 Third Avenue Parcels New York, NY 18,592 sq ft DEV 232.1 12,484 The University Hsg Foundation JV Northwell Health Mautner-Glick Corp
25 Madison-Belmont Building New York, NY 259,375 sq ft OFF 219.9 848 APF Properties Tishman Speyer JV Cogswell-Lee
Portfolio Sales
∆ When prices are not known, estimated prices are used in the ranking but are not shown. Volume is adjusted pro-rata for partial interests although $/unit reflects 100% valuation.
* Partial interest ** Forward sale
The number of buyers or sellers shown on a deal is truncated to two. For full deal and player information go to the RCA website.
Q 3‘18 | ©2018 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed or warranted; subject to future revision. 8
US CAPITAL TRENDS | BIG PICTURE
Methodology
Data based on properties and portfolios $2.5m and greater unless
otherwise stated.
For the most current data and even more options for
analysis, visit: rcanalytics.com
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