Cheltenham Gold Cup 2016

The Dosage contenders and the

Dosage pretenders…

WHO HOLDS PRIME DOSAGE FIGURES

FOR THE GOLD CUP CHALLENGE…

A FREE Guide from NTF

www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk
 Cheltenham Gold Cup 2016
When it comes to strong Dosage races the Gold Cup is right up there, slap bang in the top
tier.

If I had to list the top five strongest Dosage races on the National Hunt calendar then the
Gold Cup would be one of the first on the list, it keeps producing the goods time and time
again.

But that’s no real surprise. It’s a gruelling challenge and if you don’t have the correct genetic
profile for the Gold Cup test then you are going to struggle, of that there is no question; just
ask Silviniaco Conti!

The 2015 renewal once again went to a horse that ticked all of the Dosage boxes for the
race and although the dust may be yet to settle on Coneygree’s breath-taking pillar to post
Gold Cup triumph it doesn’t mean we can’t look forward to the 2016 version of jump
racing’s blue riband.

The 2016 Cheltenham Gold Cup already promises to be one of the most explosive and
enthralling renewals in recent memory, providing, of course, that all the main protagonists
and supporting cast turn up in one piece.

Vautour, Don Poli, Coneygree, Djakadam, Road to Riches, Ofaolains

Boy, Holywell, Apache Stronghold, Southfield Theatre, Valseur Lido,
Don Cossack, Saphir Du Rheu, Wounded Warrior…
Wow! All high class beasts and all potentials for the 2016 Gold Cup. That line-up on its own
would ensure the Friday was a sell-out!

In this FREE NTF guide I want to take a very early look at next year’s Gold Cup (it’s never
really too early to get the sights fixed on the race!) so that we can get a fix on who has the
correct genetic make-up for the Cheltenham Gold Cup challenge.

It’s a vital weapon to have in your punting armoury and in this guide I’m going to tell you
EXACTLY who meets the all-important criteria.

(p.s. if you want to know a bit more about Dosage then simply download my intro to Dosage
guide HERE)

Happy Punting – Ben (NTF)

www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk
 Cheltenham Gold Cup:
Winners Dosage Analysis

This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Gold
Cup and applies them to the 2016 potential entries.

*Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse’s

pedigree.

DP 15/15 had 8 points or more in their DP

12/15 had between 10 & 22 points in DP

DI 14/15 had a DI of 1.40 or below

13/15 had a DI of 0.90 or below

12/15 had a DI of 0.75 or below

CD 15/15 had a CD of 0.33 or below

13/15 had a CD of 0.08 or below

12/15 had a CD of -0.13 or below

DPA (9/15) - DQ - 3 / 20+ - 2 / PATB - 4

2016 Cheltenham Gold Cup ‘potential’ Entries: Dosage Applied
Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the
race –

Snug Fit
APACHE STRONGHOLD 2-0-9-4-1 / 16 0.68 -0.13
PTIT ZIG 1-1-5-4-1 PATB 12 0.60 -0.25
GODS OWN 2-0-10-8-2 20+ 22 0.47 -0.36
OFAOLAINS BOY 2-0-8-10-2 20+ 22 0.38 -0.45
ROAD TO RICHES 1-0-7-2-4 / 14 0.47 -0.57
CONEYGREE 0-1-2-2-5 / 10 0.25 -1.10

Can’t be discounted
JOSSES HILL 1-0-12-9-2 20+ 24 0.41 -0.46
DON COSSACK 2-1-7-4-0 / 14 0.87 0.07
DJAKADAM 0-1-7-2-0 / 10 0.82 -0.10

Not ideal
UXIZANDRE 2-1-4-1-2 PATB 10 1.00 0.00
SOUTHFIELD THEATRE 5-1-12-6-0 20+ 24 1.00 0.21
HOLYWELL 5-0-15-6-0 20+ 26 0.93 0.15
VAUTOUR 1-1-6-2-0 / 10 1.00 0.10
DON POLI 6-1-9-4-0 20+ 20 1.35 0.45

Wide of the mark

VALSEUR LIDO 2-1-3-0-0 / 6 3.00 0.83
UN DE SCEAUX 1-1-2-0-0 / 4 3.00 0.75
SAPHIR DU RHEU 0-0-2-2-0 / 4 0.33 -0.50
IRISH SAINT 0-0-5-1-0 / 6 0.71 -0.17
WOUNDED WARRIOR 4-5-6-0-1 / 16 3.00 0.69
BALDER SUCCES 3-3-14-0-0 20+ 20 1.86 0.45
MA FILLEULE 2-4-8-2-0 / 16 1.67 0.38
 Conclusions and early thoughts…

The first thing that strikes me is that the current front two in the market – VAUTOUR & DON
POLI – don’t have ideal figures for the race. They are not quite in the negative zone but
based on the profile of recent winners of the race their figures aren’t ideal. Of the two
VAUTOUR looks better suited to the contest although it must be said his figures are actually
ideally matched to the Ryanair Chase. It’s also noticeable that none of the 1-2-3 from this
season’s RSA Chase – DON POLI, SOUTHFIELD THEATRE & WOUNDED WARRIOR – sit in
either of the Dosage green zones for the Gold Cup.

Moving into the ‘can’t be discounted’ zone we see that this year’s second – DJAKADAM –
sits there, along with DON COSSACK and JOSSES HILL. DON COSSACK is certainly interesting
and I would personally like to see him given a serious shot at 3 miles next term. The slight
worry about ‘The Don’, however, is that his strongest form seems to come during the
October to January period (1111211F111 compared to 232F31245 in Feb – May). JOSSES
HILL is clearly a talented animal with a serious engine but until the jumping is sorted out it’s
hard to make a serious case for him in this, there is also no suggestion (yet) that he will be
stepped up to 3 mile trips.

In the prime zone (the Snug Fit zone) we have this seasons 1st & 3rd CONEYGREE & ROAD TO
RICHES. Its clear CONEYGREE is made for this contest and if they can keep him fit he should
make a strong defence of his crown. As much as I’m a fan of ROAD TO RICHES I can’t
personally see him going any better than the places next year and there are no obvious
reasons why he should improve past CONEYGREE. O’FAOLAINS BOY would be an interesting
contender if they can get him back in the same form as his RSA victory, however, with a
season off the track he is one that can’t be considered until we’ve seen visual evidence on
the race track. If he still has the talent in place he certainly has the Dosage figures to land
this contest. GODS OWN is a mildly interesting outsider and he has won over 2m5f
previously so they may want to test him over 3 miles at some stage next term. Whether he
is a Gold Cup horse is another question, however, and I wouldn’t be convinced he has a race
of this stature in his locker. PTIT ZIG also sits in the prime Dosage zone and wouldn’t be the
craziest outsider for this. His season has tailed off slightly, with a fall at Aintree and a well-
beaten 5th in the JLT, but prior to that he had shown some strong form and is clearly a gifted
animal. The worry for him would be that he has been beaten in all four of his Grade 1
attempts to date and he may not quite be up to this level. That then leaves us with APACHE
STRONGHOLD as the final prime zone runner. He’s still quite a raw animal but with a bit of
filling out and strengthening up over the summer time I can see him being a serious player
over 3 mile trips next term. He couldn’t go with VAUTOUR in the JLT but he did come there
with a serious challenge turning for home and the way he dug deep up the hill to secure
second was very likable. He is clearly talented and more than comfortable at G1 level and
hopefully connections do the right thing and campaign him over 3 miles next term; he has
the Dosage figures to do damage at the trip.

Most interesting Gold Cup Dosage player – APACHE STRONGHOLD

Interesting Gold Cup Dosage outsiders – DON COSSACK & PTIT ZIG

Happy Punting

Ben (NTF)
www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk