Pre-homework - Pre-knowledge of the course

decision theory

Christian Muñoz Restrepo

1144148674

Tutor:
Ricardo Javier Pineda

Group:
26

National University Open and Distance Unad

Industrial Engineering Program
February 2020
 Introduction

then in this activity, we will see a series of exercises which are of great importance,
to give them a solution we must know the basic concepts in the decision making
process, the topics of probability, linear algebra, linear programming, matrix
operations and graphic solutions of games.
Exercise 1. Probabilities of a given event:

In a bag there are 10 balls numbered from 11 to 20, some red and others green.

Consider, then, a sample space that has 10 elements:

E = {11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20}

With the above data, answer:

a) We take out without looking at a ball, what is the probability of getting a prime
number?

b) How many balls are there in each color?

Development

The probability of drawing a prime number between the 10 balls is 4/10 which
simplified is 2/5. There are 6 green balls and 4 red balls

Probability:

Probability = Number of favorable events / Number of possible events

We complete the statement:

a) We take out without looking at a ball, what is the probability of getting a prime
number?
Number of favorable cases = 4 are the prime numbers within the possible
outcomes (The numbers 11, 13, 17 and 19 are prime)

Number of possible cases. = 10 (All numbers from 11 to 20)

P = 4/10 = 2/8

The probability of drawing a prime number between the 10 balls is 4/10 which
simplified is 2/5

Exercise 2. Graphic solution of equations:

Using the algebraic graphical method, determine the cut-off point and solution that
satisfies the following systems of equations:

1. Y = -4X + 6
2. Y = -2X + 1

For values of 1 and 0 of the variable x in each of the equations. That is, replacing
in each equation first if x takes value of 1 and if it takes the value of zero to graph
its lines.

Development

when 0 and 1
y=−4 ( 0 )+ 6 y=−4 ( 1 )+ 6
y=−4 ( 0 )+ 6 y=−4 ( 1 )+ 6
¿−4 ( 0 )+ 6=−4 ( 1 ) +6
¿ ( 0 ) +6=−4+6
¿ 6=2
2. ¿ y=−2 x+1
2. ¿ y=−2 ( 0 ) +12. ¿=−2(1)+1
¿ ( 0 ) +1=−2+1
¿ 1=−1

The equations correspond

−4 x+ 6=−2 x +1
−4 x+ 6−6=−2 x+ 1−6
−4 x=−2 x−5
−4 x+ 2 x=−2 x−5+2 x
−2 x=−5−2 x−2
−2 x −5
=
−2 −2
5
x=
2

x is worth in the equations

−4 x+ 6=−2 x +1
. −4 x+ 6−2 x+ 1

−4 ( 52 )+6− 2∗52 =5
5∗−4 2∗5
− =5
2 2
−20
=−10
2
−10+6=−4
¿−4
−2 x+1
−2∗5
=5
2
5∗2
=5
2
−5+1=−4
¿−4
Values to plot:
1. y=−4 x+ 6
2. y=−2 x+ 1

1. y=−4 x+ 6
2. y=−2 x+ 1

Exercise 3. Matrix operations:

The Markov chains use probabilities of previous states, from there that the matrix
multiplication is very important to solve this type of problems. Given the following
matrices of size (n * m) or (m * m) solve the product of them.

In the previous exercises, solve the matrix operation (A * B)

Development

From the matrix product you get:

A × B= [ 0.4 0.310.29 ]

0.23 0.38 0.39

[
A x B= 0.16 0.27 0.57
0.23 0.39 0.38 ]
Step by step explanation:
1. Data;

Nuances:
A=[ 0.10.5 0.4 ]

0.3 0.4 0.3

[
B= 0.5 0.3 0.2
0.3 0.3 0.4 ]
Verify the size of the matrices;

A₁ₓ₃
B₃ₓ₃

The number of columns in matrix A is equal to the number of rows in matrix B;

Apply matrix product;

0.3 0.4 0.3

[
AxB=[ 0.1 0.5 0.4 ] . 0.5 0.3 0.2
0.3 0.3 0.4 ]
AxB = (0.1) (0.3) + (0.5) (0.5) + (0.4) (0.3) = 0.4
(0.1) (0.4) + (0.5) (0.3) + (0.4) (0.3) = 0.31

(1.1) (0.3) + (0.5) (0.2) + (0.4) (0.4) = 0.29

AxB=[ 0.4 0.31 0.29 ]

2. Data;

Nuances:

0.5 0.2 0.3

[
A= 0.1 0.5 0.4
0.6 0.3 0.1 ]
0.3 0.5 0.2
[
B= 0.10.2 0.7
0.20.3 0.5 ]
Verify the size of the matrices;

A₃ₓ₃
B₃ₓ₃

The number of columns in matrix A is equal to the number of rows in matrix B;

Apply matrix product;

0.5 0.20.3 0.3 0.5 0.2

[ ][
AxB= 0.10.5 0.4 . 0.10.2 0.7
0.6 0.3 0.1 0.20.3 0.5 ]
 0.23 0.38 0.39
[
AxB= 0.16 0.27 0.57
0.23 039 0.38 ]
conclusions

 It is of vital importance to take into account the thematic of the probabilities

to identify the conditions of the events, later this will allow to make decisions
with the use of different models applied in units.

 It should also be understood from a graph of solutions that satisfy the

restrictions and conditions of the problem.

 we must remember the elementary operations of the matrices, such as the

multiplication of vectors by a matrix or the matrices by matrices to give a
more agile and good understanding solution to the problems of finite or
infinite state decision with the application of markov labels
 Bibliography

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and Applications. (pp.

347-360), New Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition.
Available in the knowledge environment of the course.