April 13, 2020

Daily Currency outlook

• PRODUCT 1

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Recommendation in the report
Curreny Pair Contract Action Price Target Stoploss Duration
US$INR April futures Buy 76.45 76.80 76.25 1 day
• PRODUCT 2

Research Analysts
Raj Deepak Singh
Amit Gupta
rajdeepak.singh@icicisecurities.com
amit.gup@icicisecurities.com
Dipesh Dedhia
Nandish Patel
dipesh.dedhia@icicisecurities.com 1
nandish.patel@icicisecurities.com
Forex and global equities
Spot Currency • The rupee remained largely range bound and settled 6 paise higher at
Currency Close % Change
76.29 against the US dollar on Thursday. The Indian currency traded in

Currency Outlook
US$-INR 76.29 -0.06
a narrow range despite higher domestic equities. Hence, this reflected
EUR-INR 82.83 0.44
concerns over Coronavirus outbreak, weighing on the currency
EUR-US$ 1.09 -0.06
• The Reserve Bank of India expects the value of the domestic currency
GBP-US$ 1.24 0.24
to hover around 75 to a dollar with the Indian crude basket at about
US$35 per barrel during 2020-21

Global Bonds
Indices Close % Change
• Last week, the Nifty rallied almost 13%, the biggest weekly gain since
2009 amid hopes of a stimulus, positive global cues and renewed FII
India 10 Year 6.49 0.76
buying interest. The rally in auto, metals, pharma and banking lifted

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

India 2 Year 5.24 -1.58
the Nifty above 9100 on Thursday
US 10 Year 0.73 -5.85
US 2 Year 0.24 -6.59
• On Thursday, the Bank Nifty opened higher and remained positive
throughout the day. A recovery was seen in Axis Bank, Kotak
Mahindra Bank, HDFC Bank and PSU banks whereas selling was seen
in midcap private banks. From the option space, additions were seen
in 19000, 19500 Put strikes that should act as support on downsides
FII Activity
Segment Purchase Sell Net Rs. crores
Equity 10364 9348 1016 • Foreign institutional investors (FII) were net sellers to the tune of
Debt 190 1339 -1149 | 133 crore in equities on April 8, 2020. In April, FIIs have sold | 3469
Net -133 crore in the equity and debt market

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

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INR futures and Outlook

Currency futures on NSE • The dollar-rupee April contract on the NSE was at 76.70
in the previous session. The open interest has increased
(%) change
Contracts LTP chng (%) OI Vol by 10% during the session
OI Vol

Apr 76.70 1.17 4332758 2802888 9.52 40.57 •c

• Despite positive moves in equities, the rupee has failed
to show sign of any appreciation. We believe weakness
May 76.99 1.22 770318 614203 12.70 145.94
may continue and one should utilise downsides in the
APR-MAY -0.29 - - 2188685 - 78.09
pair to initiate long positions

Pivot levels US$INR Strategy

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Futures S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
US$INR Apr futures contract (NSE)
US$INR (Apr) 76.13 76.38 76.59 76.84 77.05
Buy US$ in the range of 76.43-76.46 Market Lot: US$1000
US$INR (May) 76.54 76.77 76.99 77.22 77.43
Target: 76.80/ 76.95 Stop Loss: 76.25
EURINR (Apr) 82.58 82.82 83.08 83.32 83.57
Support: 76.25/76.05 Resistance: 76.80/76.95
EURINR (May) 82.78 83.02 83.25 83.48 83.72
GBPINR (Apr) 93.77 94.25 94.52 95.00 95.28
GBPINR (May) 94.10 94.46 94.71 95.07 95.32
Note: The given recommendation in this report is intraday and should not be
JPYINR (Apr) 69.67 69.90 70.12 70.35 70.57
linked with positional view & recommendations given in Monthly currency
JPYINR (May) 69.85 70.04 70.24 70.43 70.63 Derivatives and Positional Currency report which may have different view.

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

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Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

research@icicidirect.com

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DISCLAIMER

I/We, Amit Gupta B.E, MBA (Finance), Raj Deepak Singh BE, MBA (Finance), Nandish Patel BCOM, Dipesh Dedhia BCOM, MBA (Finance), authors and the names subscribed to
this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We
also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

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