FORECASTING FULL-TIME MASTER’S PROGRAM ENROLMENT IN UNIVERSITI UTARA MALAYSIA

MAIN CAMPUS
1.0 Introduction
Education is the responsibility of the Government and it is committed to providing a sound
education to all. The Malaysian education system encompasses education beginning from
pre-school to university. Pre-tertiary education (pre-school to secondary education) is under
the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Education (MOE) while tertiary or higher education is the
responsibility of the Ministry of Higher Education (MOHE). The vision of the Government is
to make Malaysia a centre of educational excellence.

According to data stated by Ministry of Higher Education (MOHE) in Jadual 2.7 (see
Appendix), there is a significant increase in total number of Master’s student enrolment
from 2002-2007) in all Public Higher Educational Institutions (PHEIs).

The increase in total full-time Master’s Program student numbers studied in Universiti Utara
Malaysia over the past five years can be seen in Appendix. These figures include all students,
local and overseas at any course level. The figures indicate that total student enrolment at
universities has increased by 136 per cent since semester 1 for Session 2005/2006.

2.0 Developing Forecasting System

2.1 Problem definition
Malaysia’s population will reach 28.25 million in 2010 (correct at the time the research was
done), based on a projection growth of an average of 1.6% per year (see Appendix). A total
of 63.6% of the total population will be aged between 15 and 64 by the end of 2010, which
covers the major population age.

According to the data given (see Appendix), the students age 23-35 hold the most numbers
of students’ intake for full-time Master’s Program at Universiti Utara Malaysia main campus.
Therefore, the university should focus to this age group to gain a major increase in the
numbers of students’ enrolment.

So, the question is how many students age 23-35 for next session should be recruited to
maximize the number of Master’s Program students studying at University Utara Malaysia
main campus?

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2.2 Item and quantities that are needed to be forecasted ( Decision variables)

y = a + bx;

y = total number of full-time Master’s Program student whose studying in main campus
Universiti Utara Malaysia
x = number of student age 23-35 (full-time Master’s Program student whose studying in
main campus Universiti Utara Malaysia

b = slope of the line

a = intercept

2.3 The time horizon of the forecast

The forecast of full-time equivalent student enrolment begins from the session 2005/2006
to session 2009/2010.

2.4 Type of forecasting model used

Linear regression model is used. Age of the students’ intake is the factor that has great
impact on students’ enrolment. Total enrolment was linearly regressed on the population of
ages 23 – 35.

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2.5 The data

Table 1: Master’s Program (Full-time) Enrolment by Semester

Enrolment
Students Intake (Students)
By Semester Age 23-35
Total
(Students)
1
102 133
(Session 2005/2006)
2
123 160
(Session 2005/2006)
1
155 184
(Session 2006/2007)
2
217 255
(Session 2006/2007)
1
225 252
(Session 2007/2008)
2
266 317
(Session 2007/2008)
1
231 269
(Session 2008/2009)
2
291 314
(Session 2008/2009)
1
370 395
(Session 2009/2010)
2
196 213
(Session 2009/2010)
(Note: The full set of detail data, see Appendix)

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2.6 Validating the forecasting model

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The coefficient of determination is 0.9854 @ 98.54%. The high coefficients of determination
were evidence that the equations could be used to forecast enrolment for the next session.
According to the above figure, the value of correlation given is 0.927 which is near to 1.00. It
shows that the age of students’ intake and total number of enrolment has a strong linear
relationship.

2.7 The forecast

Linear regression line:
y = a + bx;

y = total number of full-time Master’s Program student whose studying in main campus
Universiti Utara Malaysia

x = number of student age 23-35 (full-time Master’s Program student whose studying in
main campus Universiti Utara Malaysia

b = slope of the line

a = intercept

From the above figure; a = 33.9064, b = 0.3507. Therefore, the forecast formula will be:
y = 33.9064 + 0.3507x

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 2.8 The results
Table 2: Forecast vs. Actual University Enrolment
Enrolment
Students Intake
(Students) Percent Difference
By Semester
Forecast Actual
1
135 133 0.00
(Session 2005/2006)
2
156 160 0.04
(Session 2005/2006)
1
187 184 0.03
(Session 2006/2007)
2
249 255 0.06
(Session 2006/2007)
1
257 252 0.05
(Session 2007/2008)
2
297 317 0.20
(Session 2007/2008)
1
262 269 0.07
(Session 2008/2009)
2
322 314 0.08
(Session 2008/2009)
1
400 395 0.05
(Session 2009/2010)
2
228 213 0.15
(Session 2009/2010)

2.9 Evaluation of the results.

The forecasts are accurate as a very low percent difference is seen. Therefore, it shows that
forecasting model used did fairly in the projection of the enrolment

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3.0 Conclusion
The total students enrolment (for full-time Master’s Program at main campus Universiti
Utara Malaysia) for the age of the students 23 – 35 years old intake really affects much for
the whole (for full-time Master’s Program at main campus Universiti Utara Malaysia), which
indicates;-
a) y = Total numbers of full-time Master’s Program at main campus Universiti Utara
Malaysia

b) x = Total numbers of full-time Master’s Program at main campus Universiti Utara

Malaysia (age 23-35)

From the above task, value x is the most major contribute for the whole of full-time Master’s
Program at main campus Universiti Utara Malaysia. There is the significant growth for the
student of age 23-35 in Malaysia so the UUM could forecast the main target of to enrol as
many as those student in this group.
This age 23-35 group of students could be the main contribute for the UUM intake refer to
the certain factors which are;-
a) The student who intend to further their learning after graduate their Degree program.
b) The working people who actually already stable in their financial expenses
c) The lack of working opportunity which also could contribute for further their study.
d) To up-grade the certain skill & knowledge of the purpose to get promoted & get high-
salary as well as to look for the better prospect of better carrier in their life.
e) The opportunity to further study because of the study loan & student fund (PTPTN)
provided by the government of Malaysia