Water Resources Engineering

Assignment No. 1
Flood Frequency Analysis

Discussion:
The recurrence interval of a given flood discharge is commonly calculated from a set of
historical data. The "annual peak discharge" represents the maximum discharge recorded at
the station for a given year. Recurrence interval of annual peak discharge represents an
estimation, based on the historical record, of the probability of a given flood discharge
occurring over a given time period.

For example, the "100 yr flood" is a flood-discharge magnitude that has a probability of
occurring once every 100 yrs. Generally, the lower the magnitude of event, the statistically
more frequent the chance of occurring, and vice-versa.

Scenario:
There is a need to design the appropriate height of levee dikes running parallel to the river
banks to prevent overtopping during extreme rainfall events which would otherwise affect
industrial development in the area. To determine the design discharge magnitude that would
serve as basis in the design of appropriate levee height, it is necessary to perform statistical
analysis in the historical maximum records of river discharge, given in the table below.

Instruction:
1. From the table below, determine the flood magnitudes for average recurrence intervals
(or return periods) of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, 50-year, 100-year, and 200-year using a)
Gumbel Distribution and b)Log-Pearson Type III Distribution. You may use the required
frequency factor table from any Hydrology or Water Resources Engineering book (see
for example, Hydrology for Engineers by Lisley, et al). You may also use excel file in the
computation/report.
2. Using these two methods, what is the magnitude of flood that has a 0.20% chance of
being equalled or exceeded in any given year?

Peak Peak Peak

Peak Annual
Annual Annual Annual
Year Discharge Year Year Year
Discharge Discharge Discharge
(m3/s)
(m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s)
1963 572 1974 789 1985 399 1996 326
1964 374 1975 706 1986 393 1997 1,100
1965 268 1976 781 1987 500 1998 626
1966 516 1977 264 1988 449 1999 980
1967 640 1978 565 1989 315 2000 1,200
1968 861 1979 549 1990 377 2001 626
1969 661 1980 542 1991 1,225 2002 539
1970 912 1981 375 1992 332 2003 612
1971 572 1982 450 1993 433 2004 1,340
1972 546 1983 480 1994 382 2005 340
1973 602 1984 436 1995 319 2006 565