Acrid. Anal. & Prev. Vol. 16, No. 2, pp. 89-103. 1984 OcKu4575/84 13.00 + .

OO
Pnnted in Great Britain. Pergamon Press Ltd.

SPEED AS A MEASURE OF DRIVER RISK:

OBSERVED SPEEDS VERSUS DRIVER
AND VEHICLE CHARACTERISTICS

PAUL WASIELEWSKI
General Motors Research Laboratories, Warren, MI 48090, U.S.A.

(Received 12 August 1982; in revised form 24 June 1983)

Abstract-This investigation was performed to determine relationships between driver and vehicle
characteristics and freely chosen speeds of cars on a two lane road with little commercial or
residential development. Speed is taken as a measure of a driver’s willingness to expose himself
to risk of accident, in the same way that short freeway headways were interpreted in an earlier
study. A total of 6638 passenger car speeds were measured by radar while each oncoming vehicle
was simultaneously photographed. Driver and vehicle characteristics were derived from the
photographs, both by direct observation (vehicle type, driver sex, presence of front seat passengers,
seat belt use) and from the car license plate through the use of State vehicle registration and driver
licensing files. The State files provided the car mass and model year and the owner (usually driver)
age, sex, and recorded accidents and violations. Higher speeds were observed for younger drivers,
drivers with prior accidents and convictions, newer cars, heavier cars and cars with no passengers.

INTRODUCTION
In prior work by Evans and Wasielewski [1982, 19831 an association was established
between an observed risky driving practice, namely close following (that is, short
headway?) in freeway traffic, and various driver, vehicle, and trip characteristics. A general
result of [Evans et al., 19831 (hereafter referred to as the headway study) is that
characteristics associated with high accident involvement, such as driver youth or prior
traffic violations, also tend to be associated with risky everyday driving, as measured by
the reciprocal of the observed headway. This finding serves to focus attention on the role
of the driver in accident causation by demonstrating differences in everyday driving
behavior for classes of drivers known to have high accident involvement rates.
In the absence of such evidence, it might equally well be speculated that higher accident
rates arise, for instance, from more frequent exposure to dangerous driving situations
rather than from differences in driver behavior.
Close following on freeways represents, of course, only one of the many practices that
might serve as instances of risky driving. It does not in itself give rise to a high proportion
of accidents. This particular aspect of driver behavior was studied not because of its direct
importance in accident causation but rather because it was assumed to reflect underlying
driver attitudes towards risk which are likely to be associated with a pattern of driver
behavior that influences accident involvement rates.
In order to test the generality of the inferences based on headway observations, it is
appropriate to seek similar associations between driver-vehicle characteristics and other
driving practices that might be considered to reflect driver risk. This is accomplished in
the current study, in which speeds of isolated vehicles were observed on a two-lane road
and associated with driver, vehicle, and trip characteristics, using essentially the same
methodology as in the earlier study. Like the close following observed on freeways, the
speeds observed in this study do not represent driver behavior which poses an immediate
risk of accident but rather behavior which can reasonably be assumed to be indicative of
driver attitudes towards risk.
As in the headway study, the driver characteristics studied include driver age, sex, seat
belt use, and violation and accident history. Vehicle characteristics include model year,
mass, make and body style. Trip characteristics include presence of passengers and the
frequency of observation of a particular car in the study.
The risk related variable is speed, which is frequently reported to be associated with
accidents. There is an extensive literature on the influence of various road, traffic, driver,
and vehicle factors on speeds. A review of this literature through about 1965 is given by
Oppenlander [1966]. Citations of more recent work can be found in Galin’s study of speeds
89
90 P. WASIELEWSKI

in Australia [1981]. Several earlier works relate speeds to one (or a few) of the variables
used in this study and earlier in the headway study. But because of various differences in
method, in the vehicle population studied, in the quantity of data and the like, the earlier
studies by themselves do not provide as thorough a test of the generality of the findings
of the headway study as is intended in the present study. From this standpoint, the most
relevant of the previous studies is Galin’s study of speeds on two-lane rural roads in
Australia [ 19811,which was published as the current work was nearing completion. Several
explanatory variables are common to both Galin’s work and the present study, including
driver age and sex, number of passengers, and vehicle age. Attention is called to relevant
results from this and other studies, as appropriate, in the sections on individual driver and
vehicle characteristics below.
The data acquisition site was on a two-lane road with posted speed limit of 45 m.p.h.
(72 km/h). It was thought that this limit was sufficiently high for the road conditions that
speeds would tend to be limited more by considerations of risk of accident than by the
driver’s fear of a speeding citation.
Data were obtained using a radar speed meter and a 35 mm photograph of each
oncoming vehicle. Driver and vehicle characteristics were derived from the photographs,
some directly by inspection (such as driver sex and number of passengers) and others from
the vehicle license plate through the use of Michigan State files (such as car mass, make,
and model year; and owner age, sex, and driving record). No information was received
from the State that would allow the identification of individuals by name or address. When
the owner age and sex were compatible with the photographed driver, the owner was
assumed to be the driver.

THE DATA

Vehicle speeds were measured for eastbound vehicles on Long Lake Road between
Crooks and Livemois Roads in Troy, Michigan, about 35 km from the Detroit Central
Business District. The data acquisition site was a flat, straight two-lane road with lanes
about 3.2 m wide and gravel shoulders. The nearest traffic signals were about 800 m in both
directions. There was little commercial or residential development and no significant
turning movements between the signals.
Speeds were measured with a radar speed meter mounted on an overpass and aimed
at the oncoming eastbound traffic. A 35 mm camera equipped with a 200 mm telephoto
lens and loaded with high speed color transparency film was mounted near the speed meter
so that each vehicle could be photographed as its speed was measured. The meter and
camera were 7.0 m above the pavement and were aimed at a point on the road, 37 m
upstream from the camera location for most of the data, and 23 m for a small fraction
of the data. The vehicle speed was measured from the speed meter reading, including a
correction factor for the angle between the radar beam and the vehicle velocity. The speed
meter used gave a digital output in miles per hour (1.6 km/h) and was specified by the
manufacturer as accurate to + 1 m.p.h. This accuracy was confirmed by measurements of
a test car with a calibrated speedometer.
A goal of the study was to measure speeds of individual vehicles that were not restricted
by other traffic. Hence speeds were recorded only for vehicles separated from the
immediately preceding vehicle by a time interval of at least 4 sec. Data analysis was
restricted to passenger cars.
Observations were made between the hours of 7 : 00 a.m,. and 11 : 00 a.m. in good
weather on 20 separate week days during August and September, 1980. A total of 6638
passenger car speeds were recorded with accompanying photographs. From the 35 mm
transparencies, a judgment was made of the sex of the driver and any front seat passengers
and of their use of the car’s shoulder harness. Instances of a driver smoking or looking
other than straight ahead were also recorded. Vehicle information (mass, model year,
make, and body style) was obtained from Michigan State files on 5402 of these cars,
excluding cars for which the State data did not match the photograph. Owner information
(age, sex, record of violations and accidents) was obtained for 2632 cars, again excluding
instances in which the owner information was incompatible with the photographed driver.
 Speed as a measure of driver risk 91
RESULTS
The primary results of this study consist of relations between independent variables (the
driver, vehicle, and trip characteristics) and a risk related dependent variable (speed).
Results are also presented for relations between seat belt use and some of the independent
variables. These relations can most informatively be presented through graphs, supple-
mented by appropriate statistical tests of significance levels. For numerical variables, such
as driver age, average observed speed is plotted as a function of the variable. For
dichotomous class variables, such as driver sex, the fraction of observations in one
category is plotted as a function of observed speed. The sample sizes given in each figure
caption are the total number of observations on which the figure is based. These depend
on the particular variables. For instance, driver sex or seat belt use could not always be
determined from the photograph and, as discussed above, vehicle information and owner
information consistent with the photograph were not obtained for all observations. Larger
sample sizes are availabe for seat belt use because the speed meter sometimes gave no
reading. In such cases, seat belt use and other information were still obtained from the
photograph where possible. Error bars corresponding to plus and minus one standard
deviation of the mean or proportion are included on the graphs to provide an indication
of the statistical significance of observed results.
An intrinsic feature of observations such as these is that independent variables may be
correlated. These correlations may give rise to misleading interpretations due to con-
founding of effects when relations between independent variables and the dependent
variable are considered one at a time. A multivariate analysis has therefore been carried
out. Reference will be made to multivariate results as appropriate in the discussion of
individual independent variables. Full details of the multivariate calculations are given in
a later section.
In the following sections, the consistency of repeated speed observations for the same
car is first considered. Then relations between speed and individual independent variables
are presented, followed by the multivariate results. Finally relations between seat belt use
and car and driver characteristics are presented.

Repeated observations of same car

If speed effectively characterizes driver attitudes towards risk, as assumed in this study,
then the speed chosen by a driver on one occasion should be similar to his speeds on other
occasions. Since speed observations were carried out on a number of days at the same
location and time of day, many vehicles (about 49% of the sample) were observed more
than once, thus allowing a test of the stability of an individual’s choice of speed. The
similarity of successively observed speeds of individual cars is illustrated by Fig. 1, which
is based on pairs of successive speed observations for the same car on different days. These
1991 pairs of observed speeds have been grouped into ten categories with 199 (or 200)
observations by the size of the first observed speed. The average second observed speed
for each category of the first speed is then plotted versus the average first speed (essentially
the midpoint of the category.) This technique for grouping data is also applied to other
graphs with continuous independent variables (speed, driver age, and car mass, in Figs.
2-5, 8, 9, 11 and 14) in order to produce categories with equal numbers of data per cell
(to within one datum), thus yielding plotted points with similar standard deviations.
The plot of second versus first speeds would tend to form a horizontal line if successive
speeds of an individual were unrelated and a line at 45” to horizontal if successive speeds
were identical. The actual result is between these two extremes, providing evidence for
stability of an individual’s speed choices but also reflecting a random element in observed
speeds. The slope is seen to be steeper for speeds above about 75 km/hr, indicating greater
consistency in these higher speeds, which are presumably more closely associated with risk.
A statistical measure of this stability of an individual’s speeds is given by an F-ratio
comparing the variance among speeds of individual vehicles with the variance among
speeds of different vehicles. The result is F = 2.13, which shows similarity among an
individual’s speeds at the p < 0.0001 significance level. This F-ratio can be compared with
the corresponding values obtained for reciprocal headways for the two data sets of the
92 P. WASIELEWSKI

1
90

80

Average
speed,
second
observation,
km/h + ++++
+
70_

60_
0 I I i
i
0 60 70 80 90
Speed, first observation, km/h

Fig. 4. Average second speed versus first speed for pairs of multiple observations of the same car,
sample size = 1990. The data are divided into ten categories by the first speed and the points plotted
at the category average.

headway study, which were F = 1.4 and F = 1.8. The higher F-value found for speeds
indicates that speeds may be a more stable driver behavior than were reciprocal headways
on freeways. This conclusion must, however, be restricted to the particular observational
conditions of the individual studies and does not necessarily apply to speeds and headways
in general. Moreover, it should be noted that the correlation between successively observed
speeds of an individual driver is relatively weak, as indicated by the computed sample
correlation coefficient of 0.26. The limited repeatibility of individual speeds in this study
indicates that correlations between speed and driver or vehicle characteristics, if present,
will necessarily be similarly weak, even if the characteristics are in fact strongly correlated
with drivers’ attitudes towards risk.

Driver age
Average speed is plotted as a function of driver age in Fig. 2. The results confirm the
inference based on headway observations, that young drivers accept higher risk. The
statistical signifi~n~ of the decrease of speed with age is established by a linear regression,
for which p < 0.0001. A similar decline in speed with age was found in Australia by Galin
[ 19811 and also in some earlier studies, summarized in [Oppenlander, 19661.

Driver sex
The fraction of female drivers observed as a function of observed speed is plotted in
Fig. 3. The observed effect is nonmonotonic since drivers with speeds in the range of about
73-80 km/h include a higher proportion of females than drivers at either higher or lower
speeds. The average speed for females, 73.9 km/h, is in fact significantly higher than for
males, 73.3 km/h, (t-test, p = 0.003). This is contrary to the corresponding result from the
headway study and also counter to the expectation from the lower accident rate for
females. However, this unexpected finding apparently arises from correlations among
independent variables. For instance, the average age of females with available driver
information was 42 yr, versus 47 for males; and, as discussed above, younger drivers tend
 Speed as a measure of driver risk 93

75

Average
speed,
km/h

OI 0 20 40 60

Driver age, years

Fig. 2. Average speed versus driver age, sample size = 2632. The data are divided into ten driver
age categories containing equal numbers of observations. The points are plotted at the category
average.

Percent
female
drivers
t
t

Speed, km/h

Fig. 3. Percent of female drivers versus speed, sample size = 6617. The data are divided into ten
speed categories containing equal numbers of observations. The points are plotted at the category
average.

to have higher speeds. This age difference is a characteristic of the particular set of
observations rather than a general property of the driver population. A more representa-
tive estimate of the effect of driver sex on average speed is given by a multivariate
calculation, as described below, in which all independent variables are included together.
This calculation shows no significant effect on average speeds attributable to driver sex
when other independent variables that also depend on sex are taken into account. In
summary, females tend to be observed more frequently at intermediate speeds
(7340 km/h) than at either higher or lower speeds, but there is no significant sex effect
on average speeds when other independent variables which also affect speed are also
included in the calculation. To a limited extent, these results confirm the findings from the
headway study, in that female drivers are underrepresented at the highest speeds, even
though their average speeds are no lower than are males’. Other studies have given mixed
results with respect to the effect of sex on speeds, but significant results that have been
reported generally indicate higher speeds for males [Oppenlander, 1966; Galin, 19811.
AAP Vol. 16, No 2--c
94 P. WASIELEWSKI

Passengers
The percent of cars with front seat passengers is plotted as a function of speed in Fig.
4. The observed decrease implies riskier driving by lone drivers, as was also found in the
headway study. The average speeds of cars without passengers (73.9 km/h) is significantly
greater than for accompanied drivers (7 1.9 km/h), as shown by a t-test @ < 0.000 1). Galin
[ 19811 observed no effect due to occupancy, but some older studies are in agreement with
the- current result [Oppenlander, 19661.

Number of times observed study

Drivers observed more than once in the study may differ in speed from other drivers
because of their greater familiarity with the road. The fraction of cars representing repeat
observations is plotted as a function of speed in Fig. 5, which shows more repeaters at
the highest speeds. Repeaters have significantly higher average speeds (t-test, p = 0.001).
This is in contrast to the corresponding result for headways, that repeaters were
underrepresented at the shortest, riskiest headways. The interpretation of this difference
between the two studies is not clear. One possibility is that their greater knowledge of road
conditions may provide repeaters confidence to drive faster, thus benefiting from reduced
travel time. However, no similar advantage accrues to the driver from close following.

20- 1 t t
t +t
Percent 4 t
with 10 -
t
passengers

Speed, km/h

Fig. 4. Percent of cars with front seat passengers versus speed, sample size = 6632. The speed
categories are chosen as for Fig. 3.

60

55
Percent 1
observed I
more 50
than
once t

Speed, km/h

Fig. 5. Percent of cars observed more than once versus speed, sample size = 6637. The speed
categories are chosen as for Fig. 3.
 Speed as a measure of driver risk 95

Regardless of the interpretation, an observed difference such as this between speeds and
headways serves as a caution that the two variables cannot necessarily be used inter-
changeably as indicators of risk.

Smoking
The 215 drivers observed to be smoking had an average speed significantly lower (by
1.0 km/h) than other drivers, as shown by a r-test (p = 0.03). No significant difference was
found for this variable in the headway study. The rationale for including observed smoking
among the variables was that smoking could be indicative of killingness to accept risk and
thus might be associated with risky driving. However, the observed lower speeds for
smokers may arise from the burden on the driver’s attention from smoking, which would
be reflected by lower speed.

Direction of look
In the headway study, drivers looking other than straight ahead tended to be obseved
at shorter headways. By contrast, the 102 drivers observed looking to the side in the current
study had significantly lower speeds than other drivers (by 1.6 km/h, p x 0.02, t-test). It
was speculated in the headway study that shorter headways associated with looking to the
side arose from a desire to change lanes. In the current study there was no similar reason
to look to the side, and such behavior may simply have resulted from inattention, which
would account for the lower speeds.

Accident and violation history

Mean speeds are plotted as a function of the number of reported accidents in Fig. 6
and as a function of the number of violation “points” in Fig. 7. Both these variables are
based on the Michigan State driver record of the preceding seven years and reflect only
accidents and violations occurring and reported in Michigan. These results are quite
similar to the corresponding headway results, showing riskier driving on the part of drivers
with either accidents or violations. In both cases, significantly positive slopes are found
using a linear regression (p = 0.001 for accidents, p < 0.0001 for points).
In the multivariate analysis, the accident variable is found to have no independently
significant explanatory power when the other variables are also included, but the “points”
variable still remains significant at a high level. A corresponding result was found in the
headway study. These two findings suggest that the driver’s accident record is not as useful
in predicting risky driving behavior as other variables, particularly violation history and
driver age.

Average + + t ’
speed,
km/h

Number of accidents

Fig. 6. Average speed versus number of accidents, sample size = 2632. Observations with more
than three accidents have been combined and plotted at the average value.
96 P. WASIELEWSKI

75
+
t 1
Average +
i
i
speed,
km/h + 1 t
70

0!
0 10 20
Number of points

Fig. 7. Average speed versus number of traffic violation points, sample size = 2632. Observations
with more than seven points have been grouped into categories (to avoid cells with few data) and
plotted at the average- value.

In earlier works, Lafeve [I9561 showed that drivers with prior accident records had
higher average speeds at two of four observation sites. Similarly, Cleveland [ 19591showed
higher mean speeds for drivers with accident or violation records at three of his eleven
observation sites.

Seat belt use

The precent of drivers observed to be wearing a shoulder belt is plotted as a function
of speed in Fig. 8. There is no evident pattern to these data such as was found in earlier
studies relating headways to seat belt use [Evans et al., 1983, 1982b; von Buseck et al.,
19801. Thus no confirmation is obtained from this study for the previously established
association between risky driving exemplified by short headways and the failure to use a
seat belt.
Why should seat belt users avoid the risk of short freeway headways but not the risk

Percent
seat belt 15
users

Speed, km/h

Fig. 8. Percent of seat belt users versus speed, sample size = 6624. The speed categories are chosen
as for Fig. 3.
 Speed as a measure of driver risk 97

of higher speeds on a two lane road? One possible explanation is that the two risks are
not equivalent. Increased speeds provide a compensating benefit for the accompanying risk
in terms of reduced trip duration, whereas there is no such benefit associated with short
headways. Perhaps the seat belt user tends to avoid purposeless, unproductive risk, as in
short headways, but is as willing as other drivers to assume a risk with a beneficial return.

Vehicle mass
Observed speed is plotted as a function of car mass in Fig. 9. The results are consistent
with the corresponding headway result. For both speeds and reciprocal headways, a peak
occurs for cars of intermediate mass (about 1600-1900 kg) with less risky driving for both
heavier and lighter cars. In view of this nonlinear result, mass has been taken as a
categorical variable, using the same three categories as in the headway study: “light”
( < 1600 kg), “medium” (1600-1900 kg), and “heavy” ( > 1900 kg). As in the case of driver
sex, the effect found in the univariate analysis of speed versus mass is influenced by
confounding with other variables, particularly driver age. When the average speed for the
three mass categories are “adjusted” in the multivariate calculation (discussed in more
detail below) to account for the nonrandom distribution of the other independent variables
with respect to mass, the lowest adjusted mean speed occurs for the “light” cars. The
adjusted means for medium and heavy cars are statistically equal and both significantly
higher than for light cars (p < 0.01 in both cases). These results are are summarized in
Table 1, which gives the “raw” mean speed, the “adjusted” mean speed, and the average
driver age for the three mass categories. The adjusted means of Table 1 are restricted to
the observations for which all independent variables are available and hence include 2571
observations as compared to 5402 observations on which Fig. 9 is based.
In summary, the multivariate analysis of the speed data provides evidence for a
monotonic increase in driver risk with increasing vehicle mass.

Car mass, kg

Fig. 9. Average speed versus car mass. sample size = 5867. The data are divided into ten mass
categories containing equal numbers of observations. The points are plotted at the category
average.

Table 1. Age and speed versus car mass

number of data mean speed, km/h

mea”
with with driver adjusted
driver all driver age, mean speed,
mass ,kg total age data age yearS km/h

<1600 2818 1408 73.6 73.3 43 72.8

1600-1900 1670 737 74.1 73.8 47 73.9

>1900 847 427 73.3 73.3 48 74.2

98 P. WASELEWSKI

Vehicle model year

The dependence of speed on the car’s model year, given in Fig. 10, is fully consistent
with the corresponding result obtained in the headway study. Drivers of newer cars assume
more risk. The significance of the result is established by a linear regression (p c 0.0001).
A number of other studies have also demonstrated lower speeds for older cars
[Oppenlander, 1966; Galin, 198 I].

Vehicle make and body style

These variables were treated as in the headway study, limiting the analysis to four
vehicle makes and three body styles with more than 500 observations each. Univariate
analyses of variance show that both make and body style have a significant effect on
average speed when considered by themselves (F-test, p = 0.01 for make and p = 0.02 for
style). However, multivariate general linear model calculations including the other
independent variables of this study as well as make and body style indicate that neither
of these latter two variables is statistically significant independent of the other explanatory
variables. It seems plausible that differences in driving behavior for different makes and
models observed in this study reflect characteristics of the drivers of these vehicles or
physical characteristics such as mass rather than more subtle influences associated with the
*‘image” of a particular make or body style.

Seat belt use versus driver and vehicle characteristics

As in the headway study, the observational data collected for the speed study also
provide, as a by-product, data on seat .belt use as a function of car and driver
characteristics. This information differs from the corresponding info~ation in the
headway study only in representing a somewhat different driving situation, a two-lane road
as compared to a freeway.
In the speed study, the fraction of female seat belt users (14.5%) did not differ
signficantly from the fraction of male seat belt users (13.9x), although females had been
observed to use seat belts more frequently than males in the headway study.
Percent seat belt use is plotted versus driver age in Fig. 11, showing a peak in usage
rate near age 30 with lower rates for older and younger drivers, essentially as in the
headway study.
Seat belt use as a function of reported accidents and violation points is shown in Figs,
12 and 13, demonstrating a decline in seat belt use on the part of drivers with accidents
or violations, as also found in the headway study.
Finally, seat belt use is plotted versus car mass in Fig. 14, demonstrating a similar
decline in use with increasing mass to that found in the headway study.
In summary, relations between seat belt use and driver and car characteristics are seen
to be essentially similar on a two-lane road to those found earlier on a freeway.

75
+ & + f

Average + + +
speed,
km/h
t

0
~68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81
Model Year

Fig. 10. Average speed versus model year, sample size = 5867.
 Speed as a measure of driver risk

20 .

Percent

Fey; 10
use

01A I I I J
ov 20 40 60 80

Driver age, years

Fig. 11. Percent seat belt use versus driver age, sample size = 2901. The age categories are the same
as for Fig. 2.

20

Percent
seat t
belt lo
use

/
OL 1 I I I I I
0 1 2 3 4 5
Number of accidents

Fig. 12. Percent seat belt use versus number of accidents, sample size = 2901. Observations with
more than three accidents have been combined and plotted at the average, as in Fig. 6.

20 _-

1
t
Percent
seat
belt 10 . - t ”
Ii I
use It

d
I
0 LI I I
0 10 20
Number of points
Fig. 13. Percent seat belt use versus violation “points”, sample size = 2901. Observations with
more than seven points have been combined into categories, as in Fig. 7, and plotted at the average
value.
loo P. WASIELEWSKI

Percent
seat
belt 10 -
use

Car mass, kg
Fig. 14. Percent seat belt use versus car mass, sample size = 5935, The mass categories are the same
as in Fig. 9.

Multivariate analysis
A multivariate analysis is necesssary because of correlations among the independent
variables in this study which may give rise to confounding of effects. For instance, as
discussed in the body of the paper, average observed speeds for females are higher than
for males, but this may reflect the accidental circumstance that the females observed in
this study tended to be younger than the males. Their higher speeds may more plausibly
be attributed to an age effect rather than a sex effect. Such instances of confounding can
be systematically identified through the “general linear model” approach, which provides
tests of the explanatory power of each independent variable after first taking into account
the effect of other, possibly correlated, independent variables.
Correlations among the independent variables are summarized in Table 2. Categorical
variables have been included by recoding them as follows:

Variable 0 1
driver sex male female
passengers none some
times observed once several
seat belt use nonuser user

As for headway observations, high correlations are found among driver age, accidents,
and points. Age is also strongly correlated with both sex and vehicle mass, indicating the
possibility for confounding among the effects of these variables.
The independent variables included in the multivariate calculations are the same as in
the corresponding calculations in the headway study. Trial calculations which include the
other independent variables discussed in the earlier sections of this study show that none
of them would contribute additional significant explanatory power to the general linear
model with speed as dependent variable. Hence they have been excluded here, both to
simplify the presentation and to allow easier comparison with results from the headway
study.
The general linear model results, obtained using the SAS “GLM” computer program
[SAS Institute, 19791are summarized in Table 3, which gives tests of the explanatory power
of each variable in a univariate analysis and also after taking into account all the other
variables. These latter tests are based on the “Type IV” sums of squares, using the SAS
terminology. The multivariate analysis is limited to the 2571 observations with data
available for all the independent variables. To allow a direct comparison between
 Speed as a measure of driver risk

Table 2. Correlation matrix.

Driver Age 1.0 -0.15t 0.12t -0.03 -0.14t -0.25t -0.07t 0.20+ -0.02 -0,2fPt

Driver Sex -0.1% 1.0 -0.07k 0.04t -0.09t -0.13t -0.02 -0.07t o.ost 0.09t

Passengers 0.12t -0.07t 1.0 -0.14t -0.02 -0.08t -0.03 0.02 0.01 -0.08t

Times Observed -0.03 O.OW -0.141 1.0 0.02 -0.02 0.00 0.02 -0.02 0.05*

Accidents -0.14t -0.09t -0.02 0.02 1.0 0.29t -0.05t 0.00 0.00 0.05t

Violation Points -0.25t -0.13t -0.08t -0.02 0.29t 1.0 -0.11t -0.03 0.04 0.13t

Seat Belt Use -0.07t -0.02 -0.03 0.00 -0.05t -0.11t 1.0 -0.08t O.lft 0.02

Vehicle Ma88 0.20t -0.07t 0.02 0.02 0.00 -0.03 -0.085 1.0 -0.26.t 0.02

Model Year -0.02 0.051 0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.04 0.11t -0.26f 1.0 ‘0.04*

Speed -0.2&t 0.09t -0.08t 0.05* 0.05t 0.13t 0.02 0.02 0.04* 1.0

*Significant et 5% level

tSignificant at 1X level

Table 3. General linear model results with speed as dependent variable

Degrees
SOUlYX of Freedom Sum of squares F-Value P

Model 11 11 631 22.01 0.0001

Residual 2560 122 978

Univariste Analysis WuItivsriate Analysis

Unvariate “Type IV”

Degrees Sum of sum of
of Freedom SqUareS F-Value p Squares F-Value P

Seat Belt Use I 75 1.44 0.23 39 0.81 0.37

Number of Accidents I 348 6.66 0.001 0 0.00 0.97
Number of Points 1 2392 46.50 tO.OOO1 672 13.99 0.0002
Driver Age 1 9101 .86.36 <0.0001 5278 109.86 <0.0001
Driver Sex 1 997 19.19 <0.0001 13 0.26 0.61
Presence of Passengers 1 958 18.42 <0.0001 221 4.59 0.03
Vehicle Mass 2 139 1.33 0.26 709 7.38 0.0006
Vehicle Model Year 1 227 4.33 0.04 271 5.64 0.02
Times Observed 1 296 5.67 0.02 140 2.91 0.08

Age * Sex i Ii5 2.40 0.12

univariate and multivariate results, this same data set was used in computing the univariate
results of Table 3, which therefore are generally based on less data than corresponding
results quoted in the body of this report, which were based on all observations available
for each variable, and thus generally produced higher si~ifican~ levels.
In addition to the “direct” effect for each variable, an interaction term has been
included between age and sex because of evidence that the age effect on accident rates is
different for females than for males [Lee et al., 19801. In fact, no significance is found for
either sex or the interaction between age and sex, although the significance of the
interaction term is high enough (p = 0.12) to be suggestive of differing speed versus age
slopes for males and females. The interpretation of these results for the sex variable is
discussed in the body of the report.
For class variables, the general linear mode1 provides an estimate of the mean speed
in each category that would occur if the data were balanced with respect to the independent
102 P. wAsIEL!3vsKl

variables; that is, with no correlations among independent variables. These “adjusted”
means for the vehicle mass categories are given in Table 1 in the section on vehicle mass
in the body of the report. Note that the mass variable is not significant with the restricted
data set in a univariate calculation, but it becomes significant in the multivariate
calculation.
Several variables which are significant taken alone lose their significance when other
variables are first included. In Table 3, this occurs for driver sex, as discussed above, for
number of accidents, and for number of times observed. Other variables have a reduced
significance, but not below the 5% level. These reductions in significance for some variables
do not imply that the univariate relation is invalid or unimportant. Rather they show that
other variables provide an alternative means of explaining the correlation. In such cases,
it is a matter of judgment which explanatory variables are more relevant. Thus in the case
of driver sex, it seems appropriate to attribute the observed relation between speed and
sex to the “accidental” correlation between sex and age in these particular observations.
On the other hand, in the case of accident record, the reduction in explanatory power arises
from correlations between accident record, violation record, and driver age which would
be expected to occur in most samples of the driver population. There is no apparent reason
for preferring one of these attributes over the others as an explanatory variable.

DISCUSSION

For the most part, this study strengthens and confirms results found previously relating
driver and vehicle characteristics to risky every day driving as indicated by short headways.
The following variables are shown to have similar statistically significant associations with
two separate instances of risky everyday driving, namely short headways in freeway traffic
and high speeds on a two lane road:

Variable More Risk Less Risk

driverage younger older
presence of passengers lone driver accompanied driver
reported accidents some none
reported violations some none
vehicle age newer older

This list includes several variables well known to be related to accidents. Groups known
to have higher accident involvement-younger drivers, those with previous accidents and
voiolations, and drivers of newer cars-are in each case seen to also be characterized by
riskier everyday driving.
The associations found are not strong in the sense of explaining a large fraction of the
variance of individual speeds. Indeed, as discussed earlier, correlations between stable
driver and car characteristics and speeds are not expected to be any larger than the
correlation between successively observed speeds of the same driver, for which the
correlation coefficient is 0.26. The relatively weak correlations found in this study thus do
not necessarily imply only a weak association between the individual characteristics and
driver attitudes towards risk.
Some inconsistencies occurred between results based on speeds and results based on
headways. No statistically significant effects associated with driver sex or driver seat belt
use were found for speeds such as those previously found for headways. And two
variables-times observed and direction of look-were found to be associated with risky
driving in opposite directions in the two studies. Results for these latter two variables may
reflect the driving task on the different road facilities studied rather than fundamental
driver characteristics. The number of times a regular user of the facility is observed, for
instance, is affected by the opportunity to choose different lanes on a freeway, but no such
choice was available for the two-lane road in the speed study. Similarly, the freeway driving
task makes different demands on the direction a driver looks than does driving on a
two-lane road.
 Speed as a measure of driver risk 103
Acknowledgements-It is a pleasure to acknowledge the participation of Leonard Evans in the conception and
planning of this study and helpful discussions throughout its execution. George Gorday and Gerald Kotilla
designed and constructed the instrumentation and participated in the data collection and reduction. Data from
the Michigan Department of State were provided through the courtesy of Michael Miner.

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