Punto1

Forecasting Moving averages - 3 period moving average

Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area

Num pds 3 To change the number of periods use the scrollbar, do not change the cell itself

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand Pronostico Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Mes 1 9.5
Mes 2 9.3
Mes 3 9.4
Mes 4 9.6 9.4 0.2 0.2 0.04 02.08%
Mes 5 9.8 9.433333333 0.366666667 0.366666667 0.13444444444 03.74%
Mes 6 9.7 9.6 0.1 0.1 0.01 01.03%
Mes 7 9.8 9.7 0.1 0.1 0.01 01.02%
Mes 8 10.5 9.766666667 0.733333333 0.733333333 0.53777777778 06.98%
Mes 9 9.9 10 -0.1 0.1 0.01 01.01%
Mes 10 9.7 10.06666667 -0.36666667 0.366666667 0.13444444444 03.78%
Mes 11 9.6 10.03333333 -0.43333333 0.433333333 0.18777777778 04.51%
Mes 12 9.6 9.733333333 -0.13333333 0.133333333 0.01777777778 01.39%
Total 0.466666667 2.533333333 1.08222222222 0.2555324
Average 0.051851852 0.281481481 0.12024691358 0.02839249
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 0.39319610197
Next period 9.63333333

Error Medio Error Medio Error Medio

Absoluto Cuadratico Absoluto %

estacionalidad error cuadratico medio

tendencia error porcentual
pronostico sesgo y error porcentual
 Forecasting
ange the cell itself 10.6

10.4

10.2

10

9.8
Value

9.6

9.4

9.2

8.8

8.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Time

Demand Pronostico
P1-PMP3

Forecasting Weighted moving averages - 3 period moving average

Enter
Enter the
the data
data in
in the
the shaded
shaded area.
area. Enter
Enter weights
weights in
in
INCREASING
INCREASING order order from
from top
top to
to bottom.
bottom.

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand Weights Forecast Error Absolute
Mes 1 9.5 0.5 3 periods ago
Mes 2 9.3 0.25 2 periods ago
Mes 3 9.4 0.15 1 periods ago
Mes 4 9.6 9.427777778 0.172222222 0.172222222
Mes 5 9.8 9.377777778 0.422222222 0.422222222
Mes 6 9.7 9.522222222 0.177777778 0.177777778
Mes 7 9.8 9.672222222 0.127777778 0.127777778
Mes 8 10.5 9.772222222 0.727777778 0.727777778
Mes 9 9.9 9.861111111 0.038888889 0.038888889
Mes 10 9.7 10.01111111 -0.31111111 0.311111111
Mes 11 9.6 10.2 -0.6 0.6
Mes 12 9.6 9.794444444 -0.19444444 0.194444444
Total 0.561111111 2.772222222
Average 0.062345679 0.308024691
Bias MAD
SE
Next period 9.65555556

Error Medio
Absoluto

1 0.15
estacionalidad error cuadratico medio 0.25
tendencia error porcentual 0.5
pronostico sesgo y error porcentual
 Forecasting
10.6

10.4

10.2

10
Squared Abs Pct Err
9.8

Value
9.6

0.029660494 01.79% 9.4

0.178271605 04.31%
9.2
0.031604938 01.83%
0.01632716 01.30% 9
0.529660494 06.93%
8.8
0.001512346 00.39%
0.096790123 03.21% 8.6
0.36 06.25% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0.037808642 02.03% Time
1.281635802 28.05%
0.142403978 03.12%
Demand Forec
MSE MAPE
0.427891141

Error Medio Error Medio

Cuadratico Absoluto %
 Forecasting

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Time

Demand Forecast
P1-PMP4

Forecasting Weighted moving averages - 4 period moving average

Enter
Enter the
the data
data in
in the
the shaded
shaded area.
area. Enter
Enter weights
weights in
in
INCREASING
INCREASING order order from
from top
top to
to bottom.
bottom.

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand Weights Forecast Error Absolute
Mes 1 9.5 0.1 4 periods ago
Mes 2 9.3 0.3 3 periods ago
Mes 3 9.4 0.5 2 periods ago
Mes 4 9.6 0.75 1 periods ago
Mes 5 9.8 9.478787879 0.321212121 0.321212121
Mes 6 9.7 9.636363636 0.063636364 0.063636364
Mes 7 9.8 9.693939394 0.106060606 0.106060606
Mes 8 10.5 9.757575758 0.742424242 0.742424242
Mes 9 9.9 10.1 -0.2 0.2
Mes 10 9.7 10.05151515 -0.35151515 0.351515152
Mes 11 9.6 9.912121212 -0.31212121 0.312121212
Mes 12 9.6 9.739393939 -0.13939394 0.139393939
Total 0.23030303 2.236363636
Average 0.028787879 0.279545455
Bias MAD
SE
Next period 9.63636364

Error Medio
Absoluto
 Forecasting
10.6
10.4
Squared Abs Pct Err 10.2
10
9.8

Value
9.6
0.103177227 03.28% 9.4
0.004049587 00.66% 9.2
0.011248852 01.08%
9
0.551193756 07.07%
0.04 02.02% 8.8
0.123562902 03.62% 8.6
0.097419651 03.25% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.01943067 01.45% Time
0.950082645 22.43%
0.118760331 02.80% Demand Forecast
MSE MAPE
0.397928521

Error Medio Error Medio

Cuadratico Absoluto %
10 11 12
P1-SE
Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa
starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis
Forecasting
for
Exponential smoothing
for all
all rows
rows above
above the the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Alpha 0.5
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Mes 1 9.5 9.5 0 0 0 00.00%
Mes 2 9.3 9.5 -0.2 0.2 0.04 02.15%
Mes 3 9.4 9.4 0 0 0 00.00%
Mes 4 9.6 9.4 0.2 0.2 0.04 02.08%
Mes 5 9.8 9.5 0.3 0.3 0.09 03.06%
Mes 6 9.7 9.65 0.05 0.05 0.0025 00.52%
Mes 7 9.8 9.675 0.125 0.125 0.015625 01.28%
Mes 8 10.5 9.7375 0.7625 0.7625 0.58140625 07.26%
Mes 9 9.9 10.11875 -0.21875 0.21875 0.047851563 02.21%
Mes 10 9.7 10.009375 -0.309375 0.309375 0.095712891 03.19%
Mes 11 9.6 9.8546875 -0.2546875 0.2546875 0.064865723 02.65%
Mes 12 9.6 9.72734375 -0.12734375 0.12734375 0.016216431 0.01326497
Total 0.32734375 2.54765625 0.994177856 25.73%
Average 0.027278646 0.212304688 0.082848155 02.14%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 0.31530586
Next period 9.66367188
 Forecasting
10.6
10.4
10.2
10
9.8

Value
9.6
9.4
9.2
9
8.8
8.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Time

Demand Forecast
ng

7 8 9 10 11 12
me

Forecast