Time Period Observed Value 1.

three period moving average

1 200 2. three period moving average
2 135
3 195
4 197.5
5 310
6 175
7 155
8 130
9 220
10 277
11 235
12

Dawn Wright:
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is
the sum of absolute differences
between the actual value and the
forecast divided by the number of
observations.
Dawn Wright:
Mean square error (MSE) is probably the
most commonly used error metric. It
penalizes larger errors because squaring
larger numbers has a greater impact than
squaring smaller numbers. The MSE is the
sum of the squared errors divided by the
number of observations.

Absolute
Value of Absolute Values of Errors
Period Actual Forecast Error Error Square of Error Divided by Actual Values.
t At MAD 3 At -Ft | At -Ft| ( At -Ft)^2 | (At -Ft)/At|
1 200.000
2 135.000
3 195.000
4 197.500 175.833 21.667 21.667 469.44 0.1097
5 310.000 234.167 75.833 75.833 5,750.69 0.2446
6 175.000 227.500 -52.500 52.500 2,756.25 0.3000
7 155.000 213.333 -58.333 58.333 3,402.78 0.3763
8 130.000 153.333 -23.333 23.333 544.44 0.1795
9 220.000 168.333 51.667 51.667 2,669.44 0.2348
10 277.000 209.000 68.000 68.000 4,624.00 0.2455
11 235.000 244.000 -9.000 9.000 81.00 0.0383
12
Totals 74.000 360.333 20,298.06 1.729
n 8
MAD 45.042
MSE 2537.257
RMSE 50.371
MAPE 21.61
Dawn Wright: Dawn Wright:
the root mean square Mean Absolute Percentage
error (RMSE) is the Error (MAPE) is the average of
square root of the MSE. absolute errors divided by
actual observation values.

Dawn Wright:
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is
the sum of absolute differences
between the actual value and the
forecast divided by the number of
observations.
Dawn Wright:
Mean square error (MSE) is probably the
most commonly used error metric. It
penalizes larger errors because squaring
larger numbers has a greater impact than
squaring smaller numbers. The MSE is the
sum of the squared errors divided by the
number of observations.

Absolute
Value of Absolute Values of Errors
Period Actual Forecast Error Error Square of Error Divided by Actual Values.
t At MAD 5 At -Ft | At -Ft| ( At -Ft)^2 | (At -Ft)/At|
1 200.000
2 135.000
3 195.000
4 197.500
5 310.000
6 175.000 207.500 -32.500 32.500 1,056.25 0.1857
7 155.000 202.500 -47.500 47.500 2,256.25 0.3065
8 130.000 206.500 -76.500 76.500 5,852.25 0.5885
9 220.000 193.500 26.500 26.500 702.25 0.1205
10 277.000 198.000 79.000 79.000 6,241.00 0.2852
11 235.000 191.400 43.600 43.600 1,900.96 0.1855
12
Totals -7.400 305.600 18,008.96 1.672
n 6
MAD 50.93
MSE 3,001.49
RMSE 54.79
MAPE 27.86
Dawn Wright: Dawn Wright:
the root mean square Mean Absolute Percentage
error (RMSE) is the Error (MAPE) is the average of
square root of the MSE. absolute errors divided by
actual observation values.

Dawn Wright:
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is
the sum of absolute differences
between the actual value and the
forecast divided by the number of
observations.
Dawn Wright:
Mean square error (MSE) is probably the
most commonly used error metric. It
penalizes larger errors because squaring
larger numbers has a greater impact than
squaring smaller numbers. The MSE is the
sum of the squared errors divided by the
number of observations.

Absolute
Value of Absolute Values of Errors
Period Actual Forecast Error Error Square of Error Divided by Actual Values.
t At MAD 3 At -Ft | At -Ft| ( At -Ft)^2 | (At -Ft)/At|
1 200.000 202.083 -2.083 2.083 4.34 0.0104
2 135.000 201.875 -66.875 66.875 4,472.27 0.4954
3 195.000 195.188 -0.188 0.188 0.04 0.0010
4 197.500 195.169 2.331 2.331 5.43 0.0118
5 310.000 195.402 114.598 114.598 13,132.73 0.3697
6 175.000 206.862 -31.862 31.862 1,015.17 0.1821
7 155.000 203.676 -48.676 48.676 2,369.31 0.3140
8 130.000 198.808 -68.808 68.808 4,734.54 0.5293
9 220.000 191.927 28.073 28.073 788.08 0.1276
10 277.000 194.734 82.266 82.266 6,767.62 0.2970
11 235.000 202.961 32.039 32.039 1,026.50 0.1363
12
Totals 40.816 477.798 34,316.02 2.475
n 11
MAD 43.436
MSE 3119.638
RMSE 55.854
MAPE 22.50
Dawn Wright: Dawn Wright:
the root mean square Mean Absolute Percentage
error (RMSE) is the Error (MAPE) is the average of
square root of the MSE. absolute errors divided by
actual observation values.

First Exponesial 202.0833

Ft=Ft-1+Alfa(At-1 - Ft-1)
202.08
201.88
195.19
195.17
195.40
206.86
203.68
198.81
191.93
194.73
202.96
-

2,188.68

Dawn Wright:
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is
the sum of absolute differences
between the actual value and the
forecast divided by the number of
observations.
Dawn Wright:
Mean square error (MSE) is probably the
most commonly used error metric. It
penalizes larger errors because squaring
larger numbers has a greater impact than
squaring smaller numbers. The MSE is the
sum of the squared errors divided by the
number of observations.

Absolute
Value of Absolute Values of Errors
Period Actual Forecast Error Error Square of Error Divided by Actual Values.
t At MAD 3 At -Ft | At -Ft| ( At -Ft)^2 | (At -Ft)/At|
1 200.000 202.083 -2.083 2.083 4.34 0.0104
2 135.000 200.208 -65.208 65.208 4,252.13 0.4830
3 195.000 141.521 53.479 53.479 2,860.02 0.2743
4 197.500 189.652 7.848 7.848 61.59 0.0397
5 310.000 196.715 113.285 113.285 12,833.44 0.3654
6 175.000 298.672 -123.672 123.672 15,294.65 0.7067
7 155.000 187.367 -32.367 32.367 1,047.63 0.2088
8 130.000 158.237 -28.237 28.237 797.31 0.2172
9 220.000 132.824 87.176 87.176 7,599.71 0.3963
10 277.000 211.282 65.718 65.718 4,318.81 0.2372
11 235.000 270.428 -35.428 35.428 1,255.16 0.1508
12
Totals 40.511 614.501 50,324.79 3.090
n 11
MAD 55.864
MSE 4574.981
RMSE 67.639
MAPE 28.09
Dawn Wright: Dawn Wright:
the root mean square Mean Absolute Percentage
error (RMSE) is the Error (MAPE) is the average of
square root of the MSE. absolute errors divided by
actual observation values.

First Exponesial 202.0833

Ft=Ft-1+Alfa(At-1 - Ft-1)
202.08
200.21
141.52
189.65
196.72
298.67
187.37
158.24
132.82
211.28
270.43
-

2,188.99