Global Warming hits 10 countries worst

Here is a lit of top 10 countries worst hit by climate risks from 1990 to 2008.

1. Bangladesh

In all, 654 events were registered worldwide in 2008, which caused around 93,700 deaths and economic losses of
more than $123 billion. Only around a third had been insured, primarily in developed countries.

The fact that no further peak catastrophe has happened in Bangladesh, like in 1991 when 140,000 people died, is
partial proof that it is possible to better prepare for climate risks and prevent larger-scale disasters.

Climate Risk Index (CRI) score: 8.0

Annual death toll due to extreme climate: 8,241
Total losses: $2,198 million (purchasing power parity)
Losses per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 1.81%

2. Myanmar

In Myanmar, more than 95 per cent of the damages and fatalities occurred in 2008 because of cyclone Nargis.
Cyclone Nargis killed as many as 100,000 people. One million people were rendered homeless. Many towns and
villages were been washed away.

Climate Risk Index (CRI) score: 8.25

Annual death toll due to extreme climate: 4,522
Total losses: $707 million
Losses per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2.55%

3. Honduras

Honduras has been hit by severe tropical storms and hurricanes over the years. Hurricane Mitch, which hit the
country in 1998 changed the landscape of Honduras. In 2008, abut 200,000 people were affected by severe flooding
caused by heavy rains, and 20,000 people have been forced to flee their homes.

Climate Risk Index (CRI) score: 12.00

Annual death toll due to extreme climate: 340
Total losses: $660 million
Losses per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 3.37%

4. Vietnam

Over the last decade, the frequency and severity of droughts and floods have intensified, increasing their impact on
living conditions. Many people have been affected by cyclones and hailstorms.

Climate Risk Index (CRI) score: 18.83

Annual death toll due to extreme climate: 466
Total losses: $1,525 million
Losses per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 1.31%

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5. Nicaragua

Nicaragua has been often hit by earthquakes, hurricanes, floods and volcano eruptions.

Climate Risk Index (CRI) score: 21

Annual death toll due to extreme climate: 164
Total losses: $211million
Losses per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2.03%

6. Haiti
Four storms -- Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike -- devastated this poverty-struck nation. About 800,000 people were
affected in 2008. Haiti's poverty, weak infrastructure, vulnerable environment and fiscal problems worsen the impact
of a natural disaster.

Climate Risk Index (CRI) score: 22.83

Annual death toll due to extreme climate: 335
Total losses: $95 million
Losses per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 1.08%

7. India

Natural disasters have caused extensive damage to India over the years.  Droughts, flash floods, cyclones,
avalanches, landslides brought on by torrential rains, and snowstorms pose the greatest threats.

Floods are the most common natural disaster in India.China, India, Bangladesh and the Philippines belong to those
countries that are most often hit by extremes which, of course, is partially due to their large size and/or specific
exposure to extreme weather events, the study states.

8. Dominican Republic

The hurricane season in the Caribbeans frequently coincides with heavy rains, which leads to flash floods and
landslides. Earthquakes are a potential threat and tremors are felt occasionally.

Climate Risk Index (CRI) score: 27.58

Annual death toll due to extreme climate: 222
Total losses: $191 million
Losses per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 0.45

9. The Philippines

A disaster-prone country, the Philippines is recurrently hit by natural disasters: typhoons, earthquakes. The
Philippines faces on average 20 typhoons each year.

Climate Risk Index (CRI) score: 27.67

Annual death toll due to extreme climate: 799
Total losses: $544 million
Losses per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 0.30%

10. China

China is one of the countries most affected by natural disasters. It had 6 of the world's top 10 deadliest natural
disasters, which include floods, droughts, ecological disasters, forest and grassland fires.

China had been hit badly hit by Typhoon Hagupit in 2008. About 70,000 people were killed and 18,000 people were
reported missing after a 7.9-magnitude earthquake struck Sichuan, China in 2008.
Climate Risk Index (CRI) score: 28.58
Annual death toll due to extreme climate: 2,023
Total losses: $25,961 million
Losses per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 0.78%
The Potential Effects of Global Warming
By Thomas M. Socha, M.S.

INTRODUCTION

April 1996, saw the one hundredth anniversary of the publication by the Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius in 1896.

This was the first attempt to quantify the influence of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) and the

changes of the earth’s surface temperature from these greenhouse gases.

During 1997, the world set another temperature record, continuing a long-term global warming trend

for which humans are mostly responsible, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

scientists reported in  January 1998. By international agreement, the normal temperature for Earth is

defined as 61.7F, the average for the years 1961-1990.  Land and ocean readings averaged three-

quarters of a degree Fahrenheit above normal, topping the record set in 1990 by fifteen-hundredths of a

degree. Counting the 1997 rise, the planet has warmed by more than 1 degree over the last century

(Boyd, Robert).

What is global warming (greenhouse effect)?  Carbon is release from the burning of fossil fuels and other

carbon based materials.  Carbon dioxide gas is a major contributor to global warming or the greenhouse

effect. Carbon dioxide with other greenhouse gases, act like a pane of glass in a greenhouse.  They let in

visible light from the sun but prevent some of the degrade infrared radiation, or heat, from escaping

back into space.  They reradiate it back toward the earth surface.  The resulting heat buildup raises the

temperature of the air in the troposphere.  However, without a natural greenhouse effect, Earth would

be 33C cooler than it is now (Rauber: 34).

The global average atmospheric concentration of CO 2 in 1990 was 353 parts per million by volume

(ppmv), and was increasing at an average rate of 1.8 ppmv/yr.  The atmospheric CO2 concentration has
been monitored continuously since 1958 when the concentration was 315 ppmv and the rate of

increase was 0.6 ppmv/yr.  The preindustrial CO2 concentration has been determined by analyzing air

bubbles trapped in Greenland and Antarctic ice.  These studies reveal that between 1000 and 1800 the

CO2 concentration averaged 280 ppmv, varying by only 10 ppmv around this mean (IPCC, 1990, at 11).  

Ice core studies in Antarctica have now extended the record of atmospheric CO 2 back to 220,000 years

before present (yrBP).  There is a strong correlation between CO2 concentrations and polar temperature

over this entire period, with CO2 concentrations of 280 to 300 ppmv during relatively warm periods such

as the present (0-10,000 yrBP and 120,000 yrBP) and concentrations of 180-200 ppmv during ice ages

(18,000 yrBP and 160,000 yrBP).  Current CO2 concentrations are substantially higher than they have

been any time in the last 220,000 years (Jouzel: 408).

It is estimated that the climate sensitivity (the equilibrium surface air temperature rise due to a doubling

of carbon dioxide) to be between 1.5 and 4.5C according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) in 1996. The prediction for future rate of global warming ranges between 0.1 and 0.3C

per decade.  The IPCC’s scientific assessment under a business-as-usual (no major reduction) emission

scenario global average temperatures are likely to rise by more than 5F (3C) compared to preindustrial

levels by the end of the next century  (Lashof: 7 (1993)).

These dramatic increases in the Earth’s surface temperature from the 1980s and continuing into the

1990s made “global warming” an international household phase.  Beginning in 1988 the first Conference

of Parties (COP I) to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change in Toronto, Canada started the

framework to a legally binding global treaty on greenhouse gases.   The December 1997, COP III in

Kyoto, Japan made it possible for a major agreement to be reached between 155 countries including the

United States which has four percent of the world’s population, but is responsible for 22 percent of the

carbon emissions.  The agreement calls for a reduction in greenhouse gases among developing and
developed countries.  However, there is still need for more COPs before a finalized international treaty

can be reached.  In following sections this paper will discuss the effects of greenhouse gases with

emphasis on carbon dioxide.

                                EMISSION OF GREENHOUSE GASES

Greenhouse gases make up only a tiny fraction of the atmosphere, but they can have a big impact, and

their proportion is rising rapidly as economic development speeds up around the world.  Since the

beginning of the Industrial Revolution in middle of the 18th century, levels of carbon dioxide have

jumped 30 percent, nitrous oxide 15 percent, and methane 100 percent. At present develop countries

emissions account for approximately 60 percent of global total.  But, developing countries emissions are

growing rapidly, and by 2020, will account for more than half of the world’s emissions.  China, which is

already the world’s second-largest emitter, will surpass the United States within 15 years.  The following

subsections describe some the emission sources and the amount of emissions of the greenhouse gases

(Rauber 36).

Emissions of Carbon Dioxide

The carbon content in the atmosphere was quite constant during the last 10,000 years, but major

changes have been observed since the industrial revolution.  The total carbon burden in the atmosphere

has increased from 600 to 760 billion tons in 1992.  At present, as much as 7 billion tons of carbon

enters the atmosphere annually.  The net flux is estimated at about 3.2 billion tons.  Combustion of fossil

fuels is by far the main anthropogenic source of carbon dioxide.  The total emissions of carbon dioxide

from fossil fuel burning, cement manufacturing, and gas flaring was estimated at 6.2 billion tons carbon

in 1992 (Pacyna and Graedel: 277).  

Emissions of Methane

Methane is an important greenhouse gas that accounts for about 15% of the current greenhouse

forcing, based on model calculations.  Methane sources are numerous, diverse, and geographically

dispersed.  The total emissions estimate of 442-542 million tons of carbon per year (Pacyna and Graedel:

278). 

Emissions of Nitrous Oxide

Many anthropogenic sources of the gas are also known, including fertilizer fields, animal nitrogen

excretion, postburn effects of land use changes, fossil fuel combustion, trash incineration, traffic and

some industrial activities.  The total emissions range from 12.3 - 22.8 million tons of N 2O-N, with more

than half from natural sources (Pacyna and Graedel: 279). 

Emission of Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and Other Halocarbons

Since they were introduced in the 1930s, CFCs have become widely used for refrigeration, air-

conditioning, aerosol propellants, production of foam packing and insulation, and as solvents.  Halons

are used in fire extinguishers.   The production and release of CFCs has been declining in the past few

years as a result of the Montreal Protocol agreements to limit and eventually stop production of the

compounds (Pacyna and Graedel: 280). 

INCREASES IN GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATION FROM HUMAN ACTIVITIES

There is no doubt that human activity caused the observed increase in atmospheric CO 2.  The IPCC cites

four independent lines of evidence.  First, the steady rise in CO2 concentrations since 1800 contrasts

sharply with the nearly constant concentration during the previous 1000 years.  There is simply no
plausible natural change in the carbon cycle that could account for this change over this time period. 

Second, the observed CO2 concentration history since 1800 is closely related to the cumulative

emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels and deforestation.  Indeed the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere

is consistently less than the emissions, as expected due to CO 2 uptake by the oceans.  Third, the CO2

concentration difference between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere has

increased from 1 ppmv in 1960 to 3 ppmv in 1985, consistent with growth in the rate of fossil fuel

emissions concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere.  Finally, the observed trends in the abundance of

heavier carbon isotopes relative to the most common (lighter) form of carbon in atmospheric CO 2 is

consistent with expectations given the relative ratios found in fossil fuel and plant carbon (IPCC, 1990 at

14).

Therefore, the observed atmospheric CO2 increase is due to fossil fuel combustion and deforestation is

fully consistent with the fact that the average CO 2 molecule resides in the atmosphere for 3-5 years

before being exchanged with carbon in the ocean or terrestrial biosphere (3.9 years based on the

exchange rate estimates adopted by the IPCC) (Lashof: 5).

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC EFFECTS

Ecological systems are the very foundation of our society in science, agriculture, social and economic

planning.  Five essential biological systems croplands, forests, grasslands, oceans, and fresh waterways

support world economy.  Except for fossil fuels and minerals, they supply all the raw materials for

industry and provide all our food.

         Cropland supply food, feed, and an endless array of raw materials for industry such as fiber and

vegetable oils.
         Forests are the source of fuel, lumber, paper, and countless other products, and countless other

products, and house valuable watersheds that provide drinking water for growing urban areas.

         Grasslands provide meat, milk, leather and wool.

         And oceans and freshwater produce food for individuals and resources for industry.

Stated in the jargon of the business world, you could say the economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of

the environment.  But when we pollute, degrade, and irretrievably comprise that ecological capital, we

begin to serious damage to the economy (Wirth: 22).

Wildlife

Animals are beginning to shift their populations northward or to higher elevations.   In comprehensive

research reported in 1996, Camille Parmesan of the University of California at Santa Barbara

documented range changes in a tiny butterfly called Edith’s checkerspot — the first study of how a

species reacts to warmer temperatures across its entire habitat.  After surveying 151 locations,

Parmesan found that the butterfly was declining at the southern edge of its range, with Mexican

populations of the species four times as likely to be extinct as those in Canada.  Southern populations of

the butterfly had also shifted to higher, cooler elevations, she found (Moore: 22).

Since marine life is sensitive to water temperature, the distribution of some organisms will change, and

some species may die off.   To compare sea life in 1993-94 to what it was more than 60 years earlier,

marine expert J.P. Barry of the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute collected more than 58,000

specimens from the same site in Monterey Bay, California, where a similar underwater census had been

conducted in 1931.  During the intervening years, eight of nine species that preferred warmer waters

had increased significantly in numbers.  By contrast, animals preferring colder waters had declined
sharply.  Researchers have observed similar changes elsewhere, including off Southern California and at

tiny Macquarie Island, halfway between Tasmania and the frozen Antarctic continent (Moore: 24).

Perhaps the most disturbing changes are to sensitive coral reefs, which are susceptible to runoff and

other pollution and can die of as water warms.  Since the first-ever reports of coral death, or bleaching,

in 1979-80, die-offs have been reported in 60 places, with 95 percent of the coral killed in some areas

(Moore: 25).

In 1990, caribou migrating to the coastal plain of northern Alaska found that the earliest spring in nearly

40 years had caused their principal forage to go to seed, depriving them of crucial nourishment.  In the

High Arctic, unseasonable warmth could collapse the snow dens of the ringed seal, leaving the pups

vulnerable.   Together the with a reduction in the extent of pack ice, this decline in the seal population

could spell the end for the king of the north, the polar bear (Rauber: 38).

Another problem is freshwater fish species that dependent on cold water (e.g. salmon, trout, walleye,

pike, and muskie) are susceptible to rises in water temperature.  A 5F rise in average water

temperatures would devastate many trout populations.  A 1996 EPA study concluded that 24 states

could lose 50 to 100 percent of their coldwater fish populations (Rauber 38).

Vegetation

One study using two scenarios of global warming (GISS and GFDL) by Mikhail A. Vedyushkin predicted

changes vegetation on the Earth surface.   He concludes that there are small increase of forest and

decrease of nonforest vegetation area are predicted by both scenarios. 

Among the significant changes predicted by both scenarios are (Vedyushkin: 10):
         The transition of tundra to forest types (Temperate evergreen seasonal broad-leaved forest; Cold-

deciduous forest, with and without evergreens; and Evergreen needle-leafed woodland) found in

the Russian arctic and Far East, in north Scandinavia, Iceland, Canada, and Alaska;

         The Emergence of large non-forested areas with vegetation types (Drought-deciduous

shurbland/thicket; Xeromorphic shurbland/thicket; Tall/medium/short grassland with 10-40%

woody tree cover; Tall/short grassland with shrub cover; and Meadow with short grassland, no

woody cover) found in Yakuita to the east from lake Baikal in Russia and in Canada on some areas

presently occupied by forest types;

          Territories presently attributed to types (Temperate evergreen seasonal broad-leafed forest,

summer rain and Cold-deciduous forest, with evergreens) vegetation on Matthews Map in

Southeastern United Sates and east China decrease in area.   This vegetation will be replaced by

other forest and non-forest types such as (Tropical/subtropical drought-deciduous forest; Cold-

deciduous forest, with evergreens; Evergreen broad-leaved; Tropical/subtropical drought-deciduous

woodland; Tall/medium/short grassland with 10-40% woody tree cover; Tall/medium/short

grassland, <10% woody tree or tuft-plant cover, and Tall/short grassland, no woody cover).

“Shrubs have invaded and are in some cases replacing native grasslands worldwide,” says USDA-ARS

plant ecologist H. Wayne Polley of Temple Texas.  “Rising CO2 levels over the past 200 years may be

partially responsible,” he says.  That is because some plants seem to benefit more than others from the

extra CO2.   “Woody plant populations tend to increase as precipitation increases.  Improving plants’

water use efficiency could be having the same effect as having more rain,” Polley says.  In much of

Texas, mesquite has replaced the native prairie grasses.  Such a shift in the vegetation can have

widespread impacts: less forage available for livestock grazing, a shift in wildlife species that inhabit the
area, changes in soil nutrient cycling, and increased erosion because shallow-rooted grasses no longer

hold soil in place (Stelljes: 13).

The following subsections discuss the effects of climate change pertaining to forests and agriculture.

Forests

The forests of the next century will be dramatically different.  The sugar maple could virtually disappear

from the United States.  With a doubling of atmospheric CO2, the ranges of birch, hemlock, and beech

trees could also shift 300 to 600 miles to the north.  University of California researchers estimate that

global warming could render 20 to 50 percent of the state’s natural areas unsuitable for their current

species (Thompson: 38 ).  Given the right conditions, fast-growing trees like spruce can move up to 100

yards a year.  For most species, however, progress is measured in feet per decade.  Spruce forests are

already advancing into what is now tundra; a doubling of CO 2 is expected to reduce the tundra’s size by

30 percent (Rauber 39).   

Agriculture

The potential impact of climate change on agriculture is also of great concern.  An authoritative

international study of the impacts of global warming on food security concludes that as many as 63 to

369 million additional people could be at risk of hunger in 2060 if global warming is not controlled.  The

analysis involved three steps: 

1. detailed crop modeling, accounting for the direct effects of CO 2 as well as climate change;

2. global food trade modeling, accounting for changes in technology and farm-level responses to

price changes; and 3) case studies of vulnerable regions (Stinner, B. et al., Appendix C).
A key finding of the study is that crop production is likely to decline in developing countries, but could

increase in developed countries.  Cereal production in developing countries is projected to decline by 9

to 11 percent in 2060 relative to production in the absence of climate change.  Meanwhile, developed

country cereal production could rise by as much as 11 percent or fall by 4 percent, depending on the

climate scenario.  Overall, global production would decline by 1 to 8 percent.  This decline in production

leads to higher food prices and the increase in the number of people at risk of hunger (Lashof: 5 (1993)).

Agricultural experts examined the potential for adaptive responses (beyond price-induced effects) to

mitigate the impacts of climate change.  They found that a "full adaptation effort", including changes in

planting times and extensive irrigation, could partially or completely offset the decline in global food

production, although production in developing countries would still be reduced by 5 to 7 percent

compared to the base case.  If this level of adaptation could be achieved the number of people at risk of

hunger in 2060 might decline by 12 million or increase by 119 million, depending on the climate

scenario.  The costs and feasibility of such an adaptation effort was not studied (Lashof: 5 (1993)).

Some have asserted that global warming will be benign because it will occur primarily at night and will

be accompanied by the fertilizing effect of higher CO 2 concentrations.  Unfortunately there is no reason

to accept this sanguine view.  First, it should be noted that the CO 2 fertilization effect has already been

taken into account in the study of global agriculture just described, and higher CO 2 levels will do noting

to mitigate agricultural losses on land that has been inundated by sea-level rise.  Second, although there

is evidence that the warming over Northern Hemisphere land areas measured during the last 40 years is

primarily due to increases in daily minimum (night) temperatures, there is no scientific basis for

assuming that the same would hold true for greenhouse gas-induced warming during the next century,

especially if day time temperature increases have been suppressed to date by increases in sulfate

aerosol concentrations. Analysis of climate processes and feedbacks using three-dimensional computer
models (General Circulation Models or GCMs) do predict some decrease in the day-to-night temperature

difference due to greenhouse warming, but substantial increases would occur in both the maximum and

minimum temperature (IPCC, 1992, at 119, 151-152). Third, even if greenhouse warming is greater at

night there is little evidence that this will mitigate the impacts of climate change.  Sea-level rise is driven

primarily by the average temperature increase and is not particularly sensitive to changes in the day-

night cycle; disruption of natural ecosystems can be expected to be equally severe; and the rise in

nighttime temperatures is precisely the factor controlling increases in the range of tropical diseases such

as malaria and pest damage to crops (Stinner, Appendix C).  Indeed, the only consequence of global

warming likely to be mitigated if there were a decrease in the diurnal temperature cycle is heat and

drought stress to crops, but it should be noted that much of the yield reductions found in the study cited

above were due other factors, such as a shortening of the development period.

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES (FLOODING, HURRICANES, DROUGHTS)

The potential damage to coastal communities and ecosystems from sea-level rise is perhaps the most

easily quantified risk of climate change (though this does not necessarily mean it is the most important). 

The IPCC projects a rise of 1-3.5 feet (30-110 centimeters) by 2100 under a business-as-usual scenario as

a result of thermal expansion of the ocean and the melting of mountain glaciers as well as changes in

the water balance in Greenland and Antarctica (IPCC 1990, at 277).  Recent observations suggesting that

Greenland may currently be accumulating rather than discharging ice may reflect short-term local

temperature anomalies (Greenland appears to have cooled by 0.9F (0.5C) during the period 1977- 86)

and are not a sound basis for projecting Greenland's contribution to sea-level rise decades into the

future (Schneider: 11). The possibility of a much greater sea-level increase than projected by the IPCC

(e.g. 30 feet) is based (and has always been based) on the risk that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could
collapse rather suddenly due to global warming.  Although the probability of this occurring now appears

to be remote, it still cannot be ruled out.

The regions most vulnerable to sea-level rise according to the IPCC Impacts Assessment are highly

populous river deltas such as the Nile delta in Egypt, the Ganges in Bangladesh, the Yangtze and Hwang

Ho in China, and the Mekong in Vietnam.  A 3-foot (1 meter) rise in sea level would inundate 12-15% of

Egypt's arable land and 17% of Bangladesh (IPCC: 6-3 (1990)).  In these two countries alone more than

20 million people would be displaced (Edgerton: 72).  In industrialized countries such as the United

States densely populated urban centers can be protected by sea walls.  Nonetheless, the United States

would loose 8000 square miles (20,000 km 2) of land, valued at about $650 billion, and 30-80% of its

coastal wetlands (IPCC, Working Group II, op cit: 6-4, 6-9).  These problems will only be compounded if

the potential for global warming to increase the intensity of hurricanes and other storms is realized

(IPCC 1990: 154).

It appears that global warming already has increased the frequency of heavy rains in the United States. 

Which is caused by warmer air can hold more water vapor than cooler air can, so when it rains it really

pours.  An extraordinary series of floods has hit the United States since 1993, racking up over $25 billion

of losses.  It is beginning to look like a pattern.  Paradoxically, the rising temperature also seems to be

increasing the frequency of droughts (water evaporates faster from soil when air is warmer).  The

drought of 1988, cost farmers more than $15 billion.

DISEASES CAUSE BY INCREASES IN THE EARTH’S SURFACE TEMPERATURE

Thirty of the new diseases that emerged in the last 20 years, many thrive in warmer and wetter

weather.  Lyme disease is linked to warmer, humid conditions that breed more deer ticks. 
Malaria kills about 1 to 2 million people a year worldwide.  About 90 percent of new cases occur in

Africa and Southeast Asia.  Although the disease is now rare in developed countries, that could change

with global warming.  As soon as 50 years from now, malaria could spread to parts of the world that are

now too cold to support life cycle of the mosquitoes and their parasites that transmit the disease

(Discover Magazine, 3-1-1996: 15).

Thus, global warming in North America could extend the distribution of the mosquito vectors Aedes

aegypti and A. albopictus.  There has also been a fourfold increase in malaria in the last five years is

associated with heat and humidity the development of the mosquito larvae is faster in warmer climates,

resulting in the mosquitoes becoming adults sooner.  Also, the extrinsic incubation periods of yellow

fever and dengue viruses in the mosquito vectors are dependent on temperature.   With warmer

temperatures, the incubation time required from when the mosquito first encounters an infected host

until the mosquito is able to transmit an infection virus may be shortened.  Recent years have also seen

a marked increased in dengue fever, with 320,000 reported cases in the Americas (Cross and Hyams:

724 ).

Emerging so-called hemorrhageic diseases, such as ebola, machupo and hanta virus could also be

related to climatic conditions.  Dr. Eric Chivian, director of the Harvard center, said hanta, which was

first detected in the southwestern United States in 1993, emerged after six years of drought that killed

off predators of disease-carrying mice, followed by heavy rains and snows during which the mice

population rose tenfold (Lakshmanan: A12)

Another deadly threat is the resurgence of cholera, which thrives in the higher water temperatures of a

warmer world; it has already been found in the Chesapeake Bay.  A 1991 cholera epidemic South

America killed 5,000 people.

Global Climate Change and Bangladesh

During the last 100 years human population soared from little more than one to six billion
and economic activity increased nearly 10-fold between 1950 and 2000. The world’s
population is more tightly connected than ever before via globalization of economies and
information flows. Half of Earth’s land surface has been domesticated for direct human
use.
It is now known that the accelerating pace of human activities (both agricultural and
industrial) has caused, among other things, an increasing accumulation of polyatomic
molecules such as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), various chloroflucarbons (CFCs ), methane
(CH 4 ), nitrous oxides and other which absorb the infrared radiation emitted by the
Earth’s surface (Figure 37). They add to the “greenhouse effect” of atmospheric water
vapour and natural CO2 , causing an augmentation of long wave infra-red radiation
emitted downwards by the atmosphere and absorbed by the Earth’s surface. This is
largely responsible for what is now referred to as global warming.
1. The evidence that these changes are affecting the basic functioning of the Earth
System particularly the climate grows stronger every year.
2. Global warming is the observed increase in the average t4emperature of the
Earth’s atmosphere and oceans in recent decades. The Earth’s average nearsurface
atmospheric temperature rose 0.6 ± 0.2 0 Celsius (1.1 ± 0.4 0 Fahrenheit)
in the 20th century. The prevailing scientific opinion on climate change is that
“most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human
activities. The increased amounts of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other green house
gases (GHG s ) are the primary causes of the human-induced component of
warming. They are released by the burning of fossil fuels, clearing, agriculture,
and lead to an increase in the greenhouse effect. The term ‘global warming is a
specific case of the more general term ‘climate change’.
3. Based on estimates by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2005 was the
warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became
available in the late 1800 s , exceeding the previous record sit in 1998 by a few
hundredths of a degree Celsius. The enclosed diagram shows that the global
temperature has recently moved well outside the range of natural variability
exhibited over at least the last half million years. Its magnitude and rate of change
is unprecedented in human history and perhaps in the history of the earth.
4. The global sea level has risen by between 10 and 20 cm over the past 100 years
and much of the rise may be related to the increase in global mean temperature.
From around 1850 onward, most of the world’s glaciers including those of the
Alpine regions, Mt. Kilimanjaro in Africa and Mt. Chacaltaya in Bolivia, have
been retreating. The retreats of glaciers in the mountainous regions of the world
are striking indicators of climate changes. The Arctic ice is thinning. The ice is
about 40 per cent thinner than what it was at the beginning of the last century. It is
spread has also noticeably declined. The WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that the globally averaged surface
temperature is projected to increase by 1.4-5.8 0 C between 1990 and 2100. It is
very likely that nearly all land areas will warm more rapidly than the global
average. Global mean sea level is projected to rise by 9-88 cm between 1990 and
2100. The prospect of rising sea level is one of the most widely recognized
potential impacts of climate change. Sea level rise as well as climate and weather
extremes cause problems associated with beach erosion, siltating of waterways
and flood risk in coastal communities.
5. Bangladesh would be one of the most severely affected countries in this regard.
Under the present estimate of about one meter rise of sea level by the year 2100, a
substantial area of the country will go under water. One-meter rise of sea level
will inundate approximately 17% of the total area of Bangladesh. This will affect
7% of GDP of Bangladesh. Thus, it has far-reaching consequences for
Bangladesh if the estimate comes true. This rise of ocean water will force more
population to be congested into smaller areas and will force migration, inundate
wetlands and lowlands, accelerate coastal erosion, and increase salt water
intrusion into rivers, agricultural and coastal forest lands and into groundwater.
This will in turn create multiple problems in coastal urban areas, cause damage to
port facilities and coastal embankments/structures, destroy agricultural land,
dislodge mangroves and fisheries, and affect cyclone and storm surge protective
measures in coastal areas. The poverty alleviation programme will be seriously
hampered and there will be serious damage to bio-diversity. UNEPJ reported that
loss of original habitat in Bangladesh is already 94%. A theoretical model of
tropical storms suggests that maximum possible intensity would increase by 40%
in its destructive power for an increase of 3 0C of SST s . The enhanced
evaporation over the Bay of Bengal during the monsoon season as predicted in the
model simulation, leading to increased moisture convergence and latent heat
release may increase the number and duration of tropical cyclones in a warmer
atmosphere.
6. The number of severe cyclonic storms that affected Bangladesh over a ten year
period from 1780-1998. This shows that in the past, in some ten, twenty or thirty
year period Bangladesh was not affected by any tropical cyclone. But this has
changed in recent years. Since 1960 onwards, there is no ten year period when
tropical cyclone was absent. During the period 1960-1970, there occurred ten
severe cyclones in Bangladesh averaging one cyclone every year. The human
casualties were also tremendous. During the 12 Nov. 1970 cyclone alone, five
lakh people died. Though the frequency has decreased recently than during 1960-
70, it still has a significant value. During 29 April, 1991 another cyclone of very
severe intensity hit Bangladesh, where human casualty was one lakh thirty eight
thousand. In the last few years, human casualties have declined because of taking
protective measures. 1997 Cyclone of Bangladesh was almost of the same
intensity as in 1970 or 1991 but the casualty has been much less. In the coastal
areas, some 2500 cyclone shelters have been built. Thus we find that during the
last forty years, tropical cyclones hitting Bangladesh far exceeds those in any
corresponding period of recorded history.
7. Flood: The flood-affected area of Bangladesh has also undergone significant
increase. There is no adequate record of past flood data. However, from 1954
onwards, flood record exists. Significant peak flooding occurred in 1955, 1974,
1987, 1988, 1998 and 2004. It is significant that in each succeeding peak year, the
area affected exceeds that in the previous peak. In 1998, nearly two third of the
country was affected by flood which lasted for more than two months which is
rather very unusual.
10. Rainfall trend: A regression analysis of rainfall for various stations in
Bangladesh was carried out for the years 1960-1992. The analysis shows an
increasing trend in rainfall between 150-350 mm in most of the places at 95%
confidence level. This gives an annual increase of 8mm/year of rainfall in
Bangladesh. The rainfall decreased somewhat during last few years. But it may
start increasing again.
11. Sea level rise of 4mm - 7.8mm / year at different points of Bangladesh coast has been
reported by SAARC Meteorological Centre, located at Dhaka. Part of this rise is due to
subsidence and part due to global warming.
Climate and Atmosphere-- Myanmar
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions {a} Myanmar
Asia (excl.
Middle East) World
(in thousand metric tons of CO2)
Total Emissions, 1998 8,150 7,360,942 24,215,376
Percent change since 1990 96% 38% 8%
Emissions as a percent of global CO2 production 0.0% 30.4%
Emissions in 1998 from:
solid fuels 128 4,020,885 8,654,368
liquid fuels 4,679 2,304,231 10,160,272
gaseous fuels 3,151 580,898 4,470,080
gas flaring 10 22,391 172,208
cement manufacturing 182 432,537 758,448
Per capita CO2 emissions, 1998
(thousand metric tons of CO2) 0.2 2.1 4.1
Percent change since 1990 80% 19% -2%
CO2 emissions (in metric tons) per million
dollars Gross Domestic Product {b}, 1998 X X 773
Percent change since 1990 X X -10%
Cumulative CO2 emissions, 1900-1999
(in billion metric tons) 241 161,972 933,686
CO2 Emissions by Sector, 1999 {c} (in million metric tons of CO2)
Public electricity, heat production,
and autoproducers 3 2,697 8,693
Other Energy Industries 1 312 1,205
Manufacturing Industries and Construction 1 1,915 4,337
Transportation 3 943 5,505
Residential 1 471 1,802
Other Sectors {d} 0 580 5,640
Total Emissions All Sectors: 9 6,918 27,180
CO2 Intensity, 1999
Emissions per total energy consumption
(metric tons CO2 per terajoule energy) 17 56 56
Emissions per Gross Domestic Product {e}
(metric tons of CO2/million $PPP) 54 540 582
View more Country Profiles on-line at http://earthtrends.wri.org
CO2 Emissions by Source, Myanmar, 1998
2%
57%
39%
0%2% Solid Fuels
Liquid Fuels
Gaseous Fuels
Gas Flaring
Cement
Manufacturing
Per Capita CO2 Emissions: 1950, 1975 and 1998
0
1
2
3
4
5
1950 1975 1998
thousand metric tons of CO2
Myanmar
Asia (excl.
Middle East)
World
CO2 Emissions by Sector, Myanmar, 1999
30%
6%
15%
36%
9%
4%
Electricity and Heat
Production
Other Energy
Industries
Manufacturing and
Construction
Transportation
Residences
Other Sectors

CO2 Emissions by Source, Myanmar, 1998

2%
57%
39%
0%2% Solid Fuels
Liquid Fuels
Gaseous Fuels
Gas Flaring
Cement
Manufacturing CO2 Emissions by Source, Myanmar, 1998