Modeling Vehicle Choice and Simulating Market

Share with Bayesian Networks

A case study about predicting the U.S. market share of the Porsche Panamera
using the Bayesia Market Simulator

White Paper 2010/II

Stefan Conrady, stefan.conrady@conradyscience.com

Dr. Lionel Jouffe, jouffe@bayesia.com

December 18, 2010

Conrady Applied Science, LLC - Bayesia’s North American Partner for Sales and Consulting
Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

Table of Contents

Modeling Vehicle Choice and Simulating Market Share with Bayesian Net-
works
Abstract/Executive Summary 1
Objective 1
About the Authors 2
Stefan Conrady 2
Lionel Jouffe 2
Acknowledgements 2

Introduction 2
Bayesian Networks for Choice Modeling 3

Case Study 4
Porsche Panamera 4
Common Forecasting Practices 6

Tutorial 6
Data Preparation 6
Consumer Research 6
Variable Selection 7
Set of Choice Alternatives 7
Filtered Values (Censored States) 7
Data Modeling 8
Data Import 8
Missing Values 9
Discretization 10
Variable Classes and Forbidden Arcs 12
Unsupervised Learning 13

Simulation 14
Product Scenario Baseline 14
Product Scenario Simulation 16
Substitution and Cannibalization 19
Market Scenario Simulation 20

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

Limitations 20

Outlook 20

Summary 21

Appendix 22
Utility-Based Choice Theory 22
Multinomial Logit Models 22
Stated Preference Data 23
Revealed Preference Data 23
NVES Variables 23

References 25

Contact Information 26
Conrady Applied Science, LLC 26
Bayesia SAS 26

Copyright 26

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator
Modeling Vehicle Choice
and Simulating Market
Share with Bayesian
Networks
Abstract/Executive Summary
We present a new method and the associated workflow
for estimating market shares of future products based
exclusively on pre-introduction data, such as syndicated
studies conducted prior to product launch. Our ap-
proach provides a highly practical, fast and economical
alternative to conducting new primary research.
With Bayesian networks as the framework, and by em-
ploying the BayesiaLab and Bayesia Market Simulator
software packages, this approach helps market research-
ers and product planners to reliably perform market
share simulations on their desktop computers1 , which
would have been entirely inconceivable in the past.
Market Share Simulation Workflow with BayesiaLab and Bayesia Market Simulator
Market Data
from Survey
Market Model
Modeling
Bayesian Network
BayesiaLab
1 BayesiaLab and Bayesia Market Simulator can run on a wide range of operating systems, including Windows, OS X,
Linux/Unix, etc.
Conrady Applied Science, LLC - www.conradyscience.com
This innovative approach is explained step-by-step in a
study about the introduction of the new Porsche Panam-
era in the U.S. market. The results confirm that market
share simulation with Bayesian networks is feasible even
in niche markets that provide relatively few observa-
tions.
We believe that making this method and the tools acces-
sible to practitioners is an important contribution to
real-world marketing. We are confident that for many
companies this approach can yield a step-change in their
forecasting ability.
Objective
This tutorial is intended for marketing practitioners, who
are exploring the use of Bayesian network for their
work. The example in this tutorial is meant to illustrate
the capabilities of BayesiaLab with a real-world case
study and actual consumer data. Beyond market re-
searchers, analysts in many fields will hopefully find the
proposed methodology valuable and intuitive. In this
context, many of the technical steps are outlined in great
detail, such as data preparation and the network learn-
Scenario
Definition
from Analyst
Projection
Simulation
Bayesia Market
Simulator
Market Shares
1
Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

ing, as they are applicable to research with BayesiaLab in
general, regardless of the domain.
This paper is part of a series of tutorials, which are ex-
ploring a broad range of real-world applications of
Bayesian networks.
Bayesian networks. BayesiaLab enjoys broad acceptance
in academic communities as well as in business and in-
dustry. The relevance of Bayesian networks, especially in
the context of market research, is highlighted by
Bayesia’s strategic partnership with Procter & Gamble,
who has deployed BayesiaLab globally since 2007.

About the Authors Acknowledgements

Strategic Vision, Inc.2 (SVI) has generously made their
Stefan Conrady
Stefan Conrady is the co-founder and managing partner 2009 New Vehicle Experience Survey available as a data

of Conrady Applied Science, LLC, a privately held con- source for this case study. In this context, special thanks
go to Alexander Edwards, President, Automotive Divi-
sulting firm specializing in knowledge discovery and
probabilistic reasoning with Bayesian networks. In 2010, sion of Strategic Vision.

Conrady Applied Science was appointed the authorized

sales and consulting partner of Bayesia SAS for North
America. Stefan Conrady has many years of marketing,
product planning and market research experience with
Mercedes-Benz, BMW Group, Rolls-Royce Motor Cars
and Nissan. In the context of these management assign-
ments, Stefan has been based in Europe, North America
and Asia.
We would also like to thank Jeff Dotson3, John Fitzger-
ald4 and Frank Koppelman5 for their ongoing coaching
and their valuable comments on this paper. However, all
errors remain the responsibility of the authors.
Finally, Kenneth Train’s6 books and articles have been
very helpful over the years as we explored the field of
consumer choice modeling.

Lionel Jouffe Introduction

Dr. Lionel Jouffe is co-founder and CEO of France-based
For the vast majority of businesses, market share is a key
Bayesia SAS. Lionel Jouffe holds a Ph.D. in Computer
performance indicator. Market share is used as a metric
Science and has been working in the field of Artificial
that allows comparing competitive performance inde-
Intelligence since the early 1990s. He and his team have
pendently from overall market size and its fluctuations.
been developing BayesiaLab since 1999 and it has
emerged as the leading software package for knowledge In the product planning process, the expected market
discovery, data mining and knowledge modeling using share is critical, along with the overall market forecast,

2 www.strategicvision.com
3 Assistant Professor of Marketing, Vanderbilt University, Owen Graduate School of Management.
4 President, Fitzgerald Brunetti Productions, Inc., New York.
5 Professor Emeritus, Professor Emeritus of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Robert R. McCormick School of En-
gineering and Applied Science, Northwestern University.
6 Adjunct Professor of Economics and Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley.

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

as together they define the sales volume expectation,
which, for obvious reasons, is a key element in most
business cases.
As a result, it is critical for decision makers to correctly
predict the future market shares of products not yet de-
veloped. The task of such market share forecasts typi-
cally falls into marketing and market research depart-
ments, who are mostly closely involved with understand-
ing consumer behavior and, more specifically, the
product choices they make.
“oracles” that allow us to “deliberately reason about the
consequences of actions we have not yet taken.” 8
Bayesian Networks for Choice Modeling
Using Bayesian networks9 as the general framework for
modeling a domain or system has many advantages,
which Darwiche (2010) summarizes as follows:
• “Bayesian networks provide a systematic and localized
method for structuring probabilistic information
about a situation into a coherent whole […]”

If we fully understood the consumer’s decision making
process and observed all components of it, we could
simply generate a deterministic model for predicting
future consumer choices. However, we do not and it is
obvious that many elements contributing to a consumer’s
purchase decision are inherently unobservable. Despite
our limited comprehension of the true human choice
process, there are a number of tools that still allow mod-
eling consumer choice with what is observable, and ac-
counting for what will remain unknowable. In this con-
text, and based on the seminal works of Nobel-laureate
Daniel McFadden7, choice modeling has emerged as an
important tool in understanding and simulating con-
sumer choice.
Such choice models serve a representation of the “real
world” and thus become, what Judea Pearl likes to call
• “Many applications can be reduced to Bayesian net-
work inference, allowing one to to capitalize on Bayes-
ian network algorithms instead of having to invent
specialized algorithms for each new application.”
Given the very attractive properties of Bayesian net-
works for representing a wide range of problem do-
mains, it seems appropriate applying them for choice
modeling as well. In particular, the BayesiaLab software
package has made it very convenient to automatically
machine-learn fairly large and complex Bayesian net-
works from observational data.
Beyond the convenience and speed of estimating Bayes-
ian networks with BayesiaLab, there are three fundamen-
tal differences in modeling consumer choice with Bayes-
ian networks compared to traditional discrete choice
models.10

7 Daniel McFadden received, jointly with James Heckman, the 2000 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences;
McFadden’s share of the prize was “for his development of theory and methods for analyzing discrete choice”.
8 A recurring quote from Judea Pearl’s many lectures on causality.
9 A Bayesian network is a graphical model that represents the joint probability distribution over a set of random vari-
ables and their conditional dependencies via a directed acyclic graph (DAG). For example, a Bayesian network could
represent the probabilistic relationships between diseases and symptoms. Given symptoms, the network can be used to
compute the probabilities of the presence of various diseases. A very concise introduction to Bayesian networks can be
found in Darwiche (2010).
10 A very brief overview about utility-based choice models is provided in the appendix.

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

1. Whereas utility-based choice models, such as multi-
nomial logit models (MNL), will “flatten” the vector
of attribute utilities into a single scalar value, Bayes-
ian networks do not inherently restrict all the di-
mensions relating to choice. For example, learning a
Bayesian network on observed vehicle choices might
reveal that fuel economy and vehicle price are sub-
ject to tradeoff, while safety is a nonnegotiable basic
requirement for the consumer. Correctly recognizing
such dynamics are obviously critical for making
predictions about future consumer choices.
2. Bayesian networks are nonparametric and therefore
do not require the specification of a functional form.
No assumptions need to made regarding the form of
links between variables. Potentially nonlinear pat-
terns are therefore not an issue for model estimation
or simulation.
3. Bayesian networks are inherently probabilistic and
as such there is no need to specify an error term. An
error would be needed in a traditional choice model
to make it non-deterministic.
As a result we obtain a choice probability as a function
of product and consumer attributes.
In order to obtain a product’s projected market share, we
then need to simulate choice probabilities across all
product scenarios and across all individuals in the popu-
lation under study. For this specific purpose Bayesia SAS
has developed the Bayesia Market Simulator, which uses
the Bayesian networks generated by BayesiaLab. Both
tools will play a central role in this case study.
Case Study
To illustrate the entire market share estimation process
with Bayesian networks, we have derived a case study
from the U.S. auto industry. More specifically, we will
model consumer choice behavior in the high-end vehicle
market based on 2009 survey data. This is an interesting
point in time, as it precedes the launch of the new Por-
sche Panamera in model year 2010 (MY 2010), which
will be the focus of our study.
Porsche Panamera

4. In BayesiaLab all computations are natively discrete

and therefore no transformation functions, such as
logit or probit, are needed. Given that we are deal-
ing with discrete consumer choices, this all-discrete
approach is an advantage.

For our case study we use BayesiaLab 5.0 Professional

Edition to learn a Bayesian network from consumer
choices in the form of stated preference (SP) or revealed
After the highly successful Cayenne, a four-door luxury
preference (RP) data.11 ,12 The learned Bayesian network
SUV, the Panamera is Porsche’s second vehicle with four
allows us to compute the posterior probability distribu-
doors. Clearly influenced by the legendary 911’s styling,
tion in each choice situation, including hypothetical
the Panamera is offers sports-car looks and performance
product alternatives (and even hypothetical consumers).
while comfortably accommodating four passengers. It

11 The properties of Stated Preference (SP) and Revealed Preference (RP) data are explained in the appendix.
12 Although we focus here exclusively on machine-learning consumer behavior, within the BayesiaLab framework we
can also utilize expert knowledge about consumer behavior. For instance, vehicle dealers and their salespeople will have
extensive knowledge about how consumer behave in the showroom. A special Knowledge Elicitation module in
BayesiaLab can formally capture such expertise and build a new Bayesian network from it or augment an existing one.
Knowledge Elicitation with BayesiaLab will be the subject of a separate tutorial to be published in the near future.

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

enters a segment with well-established contenders, such Beyond these traditional premium sedans, there are a
the Mercedes-Benz S-Class13 ,
the BMW 7-series14 and number of less conventional products that one can as-
the Audi A815, shown below in that order. sume to be in the Panamera’s competitive field as well.
The coupe-like Mercedes-Benz CLS16 would probably
fall into this category.

Finally, the new Panamera may draw customers away

from Porsche’s own product offerings, such as the Cay-
enne17 , an effect that is often referred to as “product
substitution” or “product cannibalization.”

It is not our intention to speculate about potential

product interactions, but rather to attempt learning from

13 MY 2010 shown
14 MY 2009 shown
15 MY 2009 shown
16 MY 2010 shown
17 MY 2009 shown

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

revealed consumer behavior in a very formal way with Tutorial

Bayesian networks.
In this tutorial we will explain each step from data
In order not to prematurely restrict our consumer choice preparation to market share simulation using BayesiaLab
set, we have defined a broad set of competitors for our and Bayesia Market Simulator, according to the follow-
purposes and included all non-domestic luxury vehicles18 ing outline:
(including Light Trucks) priced above $75,000.19
1. Data preparation (external)
What was certainly a very real task for Porsche’s product
2. BayesiaLab:
planning team in recent years, i.e. predicting the Panam-
era market share, now becomes the topic of our case a. Data import
study and tutorial. Our objective is to predict what mar-
ket share the Panamera will achieve without conducting b. Data modeling
any new research, strictly using RP data from before the
3. Baseline product scenario generation (external)
product launch.
4. Bayesia Market Simulator:
Common Forecasting Practices
Although we have no knowledge of the specific forecast- a. Network import
ing methods at Porsche, we know from industry experi-
ence that volume and market share forecasts are often b. Definition of scenarios

determined through a long series of negotiations20 be-

tween stakeholders, typically with an optimistic market-
ing group on one side and a skeptical CFO on the other.
While expert consensus may indeed be a reasonable heu-
ristic for business planning, the lack of forecasting for-
malisms is often justified by saying that forecasting is at
least as much art as it is science.
c. Market share simulation
Notation
To clearly distinguish between natural language,
software-specific functions and study-specific variable
names, the following notation is used:

The authors believe strongly that there is great risk in
relying too heavily on “art”, which is inherently non-
auditable, and have therefore been pursuing easily trac-
table, but scientifically sound methods to support mana-
gerial decision making, especially in the context of fore-
casting. With this in mind, this very formal and struc-
tured forecasting exercise was consciously chosen as the
topic of the tutorial.
• BayesiaLab and Bayesia Market Simulator functions,
keywords, commands, etc., are shown in bold type.
• Variable/node names are capitalized and italicized.
Data Preparation
Consumer Research
This tutorial utilizes the 2009 New Vehicle Experience
Survey, a syndicated study conducted annually by Strate-
gic Vision, Inc., which surveys new vehicle buyers in the

18 We followed the SVI segmentation and included “Luxury Car”, “Premium Coupe”, “Premium Convertible/Roadster”
and “Luxury Utility” in our selection.
19 The $75,000 threshold was chosen as it marks the lower end of the Panamera price range.
20 As an interesting aside, these negotiations are usually Markovian in nature, i.e. the starting point of today’s negotia-
tion only depends on the outcome of the previous negotiation.

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

U.S. This study is widely used in the auto industry and it
serves one of the primary market research tools. NVES
contains over 1,000 variables and close to 200,000 re-
spondent records. In large auto companies, hundreds of
analysts typically have access to NVES, most often
through the mTAB interface provided by Productive Ac-
cess, Inc. (PAI).21
Variable Selection
Compared to traditional statistical models, Bayesian
networks require much less “care” in terms of variable
selection, as overparameterization is generally not an
issue. So, although we could easily start with all 1,000+
variables, for expositional clarity we will initially select
only about 50 variables22 from the following categories,
which we assume to capture relevant characteristics of
both the consumer and the product:
cles actual buyers did consider and which vehicles they
disposed in the context of their most recent purchase.23
As mentioned in the case study introduction, we included
“Luxury Car”, “Premium Coupe”, “Premium
Convertible/Roadster” and “Luxury Utility” 24 in the
choice set and we further restricted it by excluding all
domestic vehicles and vehicles priced below $75,000. For
this segment of assumed Panamera competitors we have
approximately 1,200 unweighted observations in the
2009 NVES, which, on a weighted basis, reflect ap-
proximately 25,000 vehicles purchased in 2009.
Filtered Values (Censored States)
Although in BayesiaLab we can be less rigorous regard-
ing the maximum number of variables, we still need to
be conscious of the information contained in them.

For instance, we need to distinguish unobserved values

1. Vehicle/product attributes, e.g. brand, segment, num-
ber of cylinders, transmission, drive type, etc.
2. Consumer demographics, e.g. age, income, gender, etc.
3. Vehicle-related consumer attitudes, e.g. “I want to
look good when driving my vehicle”, “I want a basic,
no-frills vehicle that does the job,” etc.
Set of Choice Alternatives
Beyond variable selection, we must also define the set of
choice alternatives and assume which vehicles a potential
Panamera customer would consider. Not only that, but
we also need to make sure that all choice alternatives for
the Panamera’s choice alternatives are included. For in-
stance, if we included the Porsche Cayenne in the choice
set, then the Mercedes-Benz M-Class and the BMW X5
should be included too, and so on. One might argue that
the vehicle purchase might be an alternative to a kitchen
renovation or the purchase of a boat. Expert knowledge
is clearly required at this point as to how far to expand
the choice set. Furthermore, SVI’s NVES can also help us
in this regard as it contains questions about what vehi-
from non-existing values, although at first glance both
appear to be “simple” missing values in the database.
BayesiaLab has a unique feature that allows treating
non-existing values as Filtered Values or Censored States.
To explain Filtered Values we need to resort to an auto-
motive example from outside our specific study. We as-
sume that we have two questions about trailer towing.
We first ask, “do you use your vehicle for towing?”, and
then, “what is the towing weight?” If the response to the
first question is “no”, then a value for the second one
cannot exist, which in BayesiaLab’s nomenclature is a
Filtered Value or Censored State. We actually must not
impute a value for towing weight in this case and instead
Filtered Value code will indicate this special condition.
On the other hand, a respondent may answer “yes”, but
then fail to provide a towing weight. In this case, a true
value for the towing weight exists, but we cannot ob-
serve it. Here it is entirely appropriate to impute a miss-

21 www.paiwhq.com
22 A list of all variables used is given in the appendix. It should be noted that even 50 variables would create a major
computational challenge with MNL models.
23 Martin Krzywinski’s visualization tool, Circos, is highly recommended for the interpretation of cross-shopping behav-
ior: www.mkweb.bcgsc.ca/circos/
24 According to SVI’s segment definition.

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

ing value, as we will explain as part of the Data Import

procedure.

To indicate Filtered Values to BayesiaLab, we will need

to apply a study-specific logic and recode the relevant
variables in the original database. Most statistical soft-
ware package have a set of functions for this kind of
task.

For example, in STATISTICA this can be done with the

Recode function.

The table displayed in the Data Import wizard shows the

individual variables as columns and the respondent re-
cords as rows. There are a number of options available,
such as for Sampling. However, this is not necessary in
our example given the relatively small size of the data-
base.

Clicking the Next button prompts a data type analysis,

which provides BayesiaLab’s best guess regarding the
data type of each variable.

Alternatively, this recoding logic can also be expressed Furthermore, the Information box provides a brief sum-
with the following pseudo code: mary regarding the number of records, the number of
missing values, filtered states, etc.
IF towing=yes THEN towing weight=unchanged

IF towing=no THEN towing weight=FV (Filtered Value)

A simple Excel function will achieve the same and it is

assumed that the reader can implement this without fur-
ther guidance.

Although Filtered Values are very important in many

research contexts, hence the emphasis here, our case
study does not require using them.

Data Modeling

Data Import
To start the analysis with BayesiaLab, we first import the
For this example, we will need to override the default
database, which needs to be formatted as a CSV file.25
data type for the Unique Identifier variable, as each
With Data>Open Data Source>Text File, we start the
value is a nominal record identifier rather than a numeri-
Data Import wizard, which immediately provides a
cal scale value. We can change the data type by highlight-
preview of the data file.
ing the Unique Identifier column and clicking the Row

25 CSV stands for “comma-separated values”, a common format for text-based data files. As an alternative to this im-
port format, BayesiaLab offers a JDBC connection, which is practical when accessing large databases on servers.

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

Identifier check box, which changes the color of the
Unique Identifier column to beige.
Although it is not imperative to maintain a Row Identi-
fier, and we could instead assign the Not Distributed
status to the Unique Identifier variable, it can be quite
helpful for finding individual respondent records at a
later point in the analysis.
As the respondent records in the NVES survey are
weighted, we need to select the Weight by clicking on the
Combined Base Weight variable, which will turn the
column green.
of discrete distributions, means-imputation typically also
introduces a bias. There are other, better techniques,
which typically demand significant computational effort
and thus often turn out like a labor-intensive standalone
project rather than being just a preparatory step.
Without going into too much detail at this point,
BayesiaLab can estimate all missing values given the
learned network structure using the Expectation Maxi-
mization (EM) algorithm. As a result, we obtain a com-
plete database without “making things up.” In tradi-
tional statistics, the equivalent would be to say that nei-
ther the mean nor the variance of the variables is af-
fected by the imputation process.

Continuing in our data import process, the next screen

provides options as to how to treat the missing values.
Clicking the small upside-down triangle next to the vari-
able names brings up a window with key statistics of the
selected variable, in this case Age Bracket.

Missing Values
In the context of data import, it is important to point out
how missing values are treated in BayesiaLab. The na-
tive, automatic processing of missing values reveals a
particular strength of BayesiaLab.

In traditional statistical analysis, the analyst has to

choose from a number of methods to handle missing
The very basic functions of filtering, i.e. case-wise dele-
values in a database, but unfortunately many of them
tion, and mean/modal value imputation are available.
have serious drawbacks. Perhaps the most common
However, at this point, we can take advantage of
method is case-wise deletion, which simply excludes re-
BayesiaLab’s advanced missing values processing algo-
cords that contain any missing values. Casually speaking, rithms. We will select Dynamic Completion, which will
this means throwing away lots of good data (the non-
continuously “fill in” and “update” the missing values
missing values) along with the bad (the missing values).
according to the conditional distribution of the variable,
Another method is means-imputation, by which any
as defined by the current structure of the networks.
missing value is filled in with the variable’s mean. Inevi-
However, as our network is not yet connected and hence
tably, this reduces the variance of the variable and thus
does not have a structure, BayesiaLab will draw from the
has an impact on its summary statistics, which is clearly
undesirable considering the intended analysis. In the case

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

marginal distribution of each variable to “tentatively”

establish placeholder values for each missing value.

A screenshot from STATISTICA, where we have done

most of the preprocessing, shows the marginal distribu-
tion of the Age Bracket variable in the form of a
histogram.26

By clicking on the Type drop-down menu, the choice of

discretization algorithms appears.

Selecting Manual will show a cumulative graph of the

The missing Age Bracket values will be drawn from this
Purchase Price distribution, and we can see that it ranges
marginal distribution and are used as placeholders, until
from $75,000 to $180,000.28
we can use the structure of the Bayesian network to rees-
timate our missing values. As Dynamic Completion im-
plies, BayesiaLab performs this on continuous basis in
the background, so at any point we would have the best
possible estimates for the missing values, given the cur-
rent network structure.

Discretization
The next step is the Discretization and Aggregation dia-
logue, which allows the analyst to determine the type of
discretization, which must be performed on all continu-
ous variables.27 We will use the Purchase Price variable
to explain the process. Highlighting a variable will show
the default discretization algorithm while the graph
panel is initially blank. We could now manually select binning thresholds by
way of point-and-click directly on the graph panel. This

26 The normal curve in the histogram is just for illustration purposes. BayesiaLab always uses the actual discrete distri-
bution, not a parametric approximation.
27 BayesiaLab requires discrete distributions for all variables.
28 $75,000 was previously selected as the lower boundary for this particular vehicle segment. $180,000 was the highest
reported price in NVES.

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

might be relevant, if there were government regulations

in place with specific vehicle price thresholds.29

For our purposes, however, we want to create price cate-

gories that are meaningful in the context of our vehicle
segment and five bins may seem like a reasonable start-
ing point.
The resulting bins appear much more suitable to describe
Clicking Generate Discretization will prompt us to select our domain.
the type of discretization and the number of desired in-
tervals. Without having a-priori knowledge about the
distribution of the Price variable, we may want to start
with the Equal Distances algorithm.

The resulting view shows the generated intervals and by

clicking on the interval boundaries we can see the per-
We will proceed similarly with the only other continuous
centage of cases falling into the adjacent intervals.
variable in the database, i.e. Age Bracket.

Note

For choosing discretization algorithms beyond this

example, the following rule of thumb may be helpful:

• For supervised learning, choose Decision Tree.

• For unsupervised learning, choose, in the order of

priority, K-Means, Equal Distances or Equal
Frequencies.

Clicking Finish completes the import process and 49

variables (columns) from our database are now shown as
blue nodes in the Graph Panel, which is the main win-
We learn from this that our bottom two intervals contain dow for network editing.
89% of the cases, whereas the top two intervals contain
just under 5% of the cases. This suggests that we may
not have enough granularity to characterize the bulk of
the market towards the bottom end of the price spec-
trum. Perhaps we also have too few cases within the top
two intervals. So we will generate a new discretization,
now with four intervals, and select KMeans as the type
this time.

29 The now-expired luxury tax for passenger cars in the U.S. would be an example for such a policy.

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

we are in P(Age < 45 | Number of children under 6

= 2). Hence we focus the learning algorithm on the
area of interest, i.e. product attributes vis-à-vis mar-
ket attributes.

2. We must not learn the dependencies between the

The six nodes on the far left column reflect product at-
tributes (green), the second-from-left column shows ten
demographic attributes (yellow) and all remaining nodes
to the right represent 33 vehicle-related attitudes (red).
This initial view represents a fully unconnected Bayesian
network.
Also, to simplify our nomenclature, we will combine the
demographic attributes (yellow) and the vehicle-related
attitudes (red) and refer to them together as “Market”
variables (now all red).
product variables themselves because they would
simply reflect today’s product offerings and their
contingencies, e.g. P(Vehicle Segment=“4-door se-
dan” | Brand=“Porsche”)=0. We do want to under-
stand what is available today, but we certainly do
not want to encode today’s product scenarios as
constraints in the network. Instead, we want to be
able to introduce new scenarios, which are not
available today.
To focus learning in a specific area, we need to take an
indirect approach and tell BayesiaLab “what not to
learn.” So, to prevent the algorithm from learning the
product-to-product variable relationships, we will “for-
bid” such arcs.
We first create a Class by highlighting all product nodes
then right-clicking them. From the menu, we then select
Properties>Classes>Add.

Variable Classes and Forbidden Arcs

One is now tempted to immediately start with Unsuper-
vised Learning to see how all these variables relate to
each other.

However, there are two reasons why we need to intro-

duce another step at this point:

1. Our mission is to model the interactions between

When prompted for a name, we can choose something
products variables on the one side and market vari-
descriptive, so we give this new Class class the label
ables on the other, so we can see the consumer re-
“Product”.
sponse to products. For instance, we are more inter-
ested in learning P(Transmission= “Manual” | Atti-
tude = “Driving is one of my favorite things”) than

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

As a result, these Forbidden Arc relationships will appear

in the Forbidden Arc Editor and will remain there unless
we subsequently choose to modify them.

Having introduced this Class of node, we can now very

easily manage Forbidden Arcs. More specifically, we
want to make all arcs within the Class Products forbid-
den. A right-click anywhere on the Graph Panel opens
up the menu from which we can select Edit Forbidden
Arcs.

We are also reminded about the presence of Forbidden

Arcs by the symbol in the lower right corner of the
screen.

Unsupervised Learning
Now that the learning constraints are in place, we con-
tinue to learn the network by selecting Learning>Asso-
ciation Discovering>EQ.30

In the Forbidden Arc Editor, we can select the Class

Product both as start and end.

The resulting network may appear somewhat unwieldy

We now repeat the above steps and also create Forbid- at first glance, but upon closer inspection we can see that
den Arcs for the Market variables. arcs exist only between Product variables (green) and
Market variables (red), which is precisely what we in-
tended by establishing Forbidden Arcs.

30 EQ is one of the unsupervised learning algorithms implemented in BayesiaLab. Koller and Friedman (2009) provide a
comprehensive introduction to learning algorithms.

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

ing the baseline scenario is described in the following

section.

Product Scenario Baseline

The idea is that all available product configurations were
manifested in the market in 2009 and thus captured in
the 2009 NVES.33

It still requires careful consideration as to how many

Product variables should be included to generate the
baseline product scenario. We want to create a type of

However, we will not analyze this structure any further, coordinate system, that allows us to identify products

but rather use it solely as a statistical device to be used in through their principal characteristics. For instance, the

the Bayesia Market Simulator. We simply need to save following attributes would uniquely define a “Mercedes-
Benz S550 4Matic”:
the network in its native xbl file format, so the Bayesia
Market Simulator can subsequently import it.
• Brand=“Mercedes-Benz”

Simulation • Engine Type=“V8”

With the Bayesia Market Simulator we have the ability
• Drive Type=“AWD”
to simulate “alternate worlds” for both the Product
variables as well as for the Market variables. In most • Transmission=“Automatic”
applications, however, marketing analysts will want to
primarily study new Product scenarios assuming the • Segment=“High Premium”34
Market remains invariant, meaning that consumer
• Price=“>$85,795 AND <= $99,378”
demographics and attitudes remain the same.31
Relating consumer attributes and attitudes to these indi-
It will be the task of the analyst to define new product
vidual product attributes, rather than to the vehicle as a
scenarios, which will need to include all products as-
whole, will then allow us to construct hypothetical
sumed to be in the marketplace for the to-be-projected
products during our simulation. To stay with the Mer-
timeframe, in our case 2010.32 As many products carry
cedes example, we could define a new product by setting
over from one year to the next, e.g. from model year
the engine type to “V6” and changing the price to “<
2010 to model year 2011, it is very helpful to use the
$85,795”.
currently available products as a baseline scenario, upon
which changes can be built. Quite simply, we need to It is easy to imagine how one can get the number of
take inventory of the product landscape today. In the permutations to exceed the number of consumers. For
current version of Bayesia Market Simulator this step is instance, in the High Premium segment, we could further
yet not automated, so a practical procedure for generat- differentiate between short wheelbase and long wheel-

31 The year-to-year invariance assumption of the market has been challenged by many marketing executives during the
most recent recession. In this context, many media headlines also proclaimed a paradigm shift in consumer behavior.
The authors have believed - then as well as now - that more has remained the same than has changed in terms of con-
sumer attitudes.
32 For expositional simplicity, we make no distinction between model year and calendar year.
33 In our example, we judge this to be a reasonable simplification, even though a small number of automobiles at the
very top end of the market, e.g. the Rolls-Royce Phantom, may not be captured in the survey.
34 Using the Strategic Vision segmentation nomenclature, “High Premium” defines a large four-door luxury sedan.

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

base versions, which would increase the number of base-

line product scenarios. We want to find a reasonable
balance between product granularity and the ratio of
consumers to product scenarios, although we cannot
provide the reader with a hard-and-fast rule.

Pricing is obviously a very important part of the product

scenario configuration and here we are confronted with
the reality that no two customers pay exactly the same
for the identical product, and the survey data makes this
very evident. Furthermore, there are numerous product
features outside our “coordinate system”, e.g. an op-
tional $6,000 high-end audio system, that would materi-
ally affect the price point of an individual vehicle, but
which would not move the vehicle into a different cate-
gory from a consumer’s perspective. With options, an
S550 can easily reach a price of over $100,000. Still we
would want such a high-end S550 to be grouped with
the standard S550. Thus it is important to define reason-
able price brackets that cover the price spectrum of each
vehicle and minimize model fragmentation.
This will export all variables and all records, including
values from previously performed missing value imputa-
tions. The output will be in a semicolon-delimited text
file, which can be easily imported into Excel or any sta-
tistical application, such as SPSS or STATISTICA. The
purpose of loading this into an external application is to
manipulate the database to extract the unique product
combinations available in the market.
In Excel this can be done very quickly by deleting all
columns unrelated to the product configuration, which
leaves us with just the product attributes.

During the Data Import stage, BayesiaLab has discre-

tized all continuous numerical values, including Price,
and created discrete states. If these discrete states are
adequate considering the price positioning and price
spectrum of the vehicles under study, we can now lever-
age this existing binning for generating all current
product scenarios and select Data>Save Data.

In Excel 2010 (for Windows) and Excel 2011 (for Mac),

there is a very convenient feature, which allows to
quickly remove all duplicates, which is exactly what we
want to achieve. We want to know all the unique
product configurations currently in the market.

In the subsequently appearing dialogue box, we need to

select Use the States’ Long Name. It is important that
Use Continuous Values is not checked, otherwise we will
lose the discretized states of the Price variable.

This leaves use with a table of approximately 100 unique

product scenario combinations available at the time of
the survey.

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator
To make these unique product scenarios available for
subsequent use in the Bayesia Market Simulator, we need
to save the table as a semicolon-delimited CSV file. This
is important to point out, as most programs will save
CSV files by default as comma-delimited files.
Product Scenario Simulation
Now that we have the Bayesian network describing the
overall market (as an xbl file) as well as the baseline
product scenarios (as a csv file), we can proceed to open
the Bayesia Market Simulator.
Clicking File>Open will prompt us to open the xbl net-
work file we previously generated with BayesiaLab.
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Upon loading we will see the principal interface of the
Bayesia Market Simulator. On the left panel, all nodes of
the network appear as variables. We will now need to
separate all variables into Market Variables and Scenario
Variables by clicking the respective arrow buttons. In our
case, the aptly named Market variables are the Market
Variables in BMS nomenclature and Product variables
are the Scenario Variables.
All variables must be allocated before being able to con-
tinue to Scenario Editing. This also implies that Product
variables, which are not to be included as Scenario Vari-
ables, must be excluded from the Bayesian network file.
If necessary, we will return to BayesiaLab to make such
edits
As we are working with RP data, every record in our
database reflects one vehicle purchase, i.e. “reveals” one
choice, and therefore we need to leave the Target Vari-
able and Target State fields blank. These fields would
only be used in conjunction with SP data, which includes
a variable indicating acceptance versus rejection.
Clicking Scenario Editing opens up a new window. We
can now manually add any product scenarios we wish to
simulate. Given the potentially large number of scenar-
ios, it will typically be better to load the baseline product
scenarios, which were saved earlier.
16
Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

Upon successful import, all baseline product scenarios

will appear in the Scenario Editing dialogue.

We can do that by selecting Offer>Import Offers.

We now select to open the semicolon-delimited CSV file

with the baseline product scenarios. It is very important
that the CSV file is formatted precisely as specified, for
instance, without any extra blank lines.

In case there are any import issues, it can be helpful to

review the CSV file in a text editor and to visually in-
spect the formatting.
The analyst can now add any new product scenarios or
delete those products, which are no longer expected to
be in the market.35 By clicking Add Offer an additional
scenario will be added at the bottom of the product sce-
nario list. In the case of long product scenario lists, this
may require scrolling all the way down.

Clicking on the product attributes of any scenario

prompts drop-down menus to appear with the available

35 To maintain expositional simplicity, we have added all Panamera versions for the entire year 2010 and not changed
any other product scenarios. It should be pointed out that the V6 version of the Porsche Panamera was introduced only
in mid-2010. BMW has also launched an additional six-cylinder version of the 7-series as well as AWD variants, which
are not reflected in the simulation. Finally, Jaguar has released a new XJ in 2010, while that year marked the runout of
the old-generation Audi A8.

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

attribute states, e.g. RWD or AWD.36 This also allows to done by associating the original database, from which
change attributes of existing products, according to the the network was learned, or by creating a new, artificial
analysts requirements. one that reflects the joint probability distribution of the
learned Bayesian network.

The latter can be achieved by selecting Database>Gener-

ate.

It is up to the analyst to determine the size of the data-

base to be generated. Although there is no fixed rule, too
small of a database will limit the observability of prod-
ucts with a very small market share.

For our case study, we will add the following versions of

the Panamera as new product scenarios:

• Panamera (V6, RWD)

Alternatively, we can also associate the original database,
• Panamera 4 (V6, AWD) which contains the survey responses. In our case, the
original database contains 1,203 records, which is very
• Panamera S (V8, RWD) reasonable in terms of computational requirements.

• Panamera 4S (V8, AWD) Once a database is associated, clicking the Simulation

button will start the market share estimation process.
• Panamera Turbo (V8 Turbo, RWD)

To characterize all of them as large 4-door luxury se-

dans, which is the key distinction versus previous Por-
sche products, we will assign the “High Premium” at-
tribute to them.

Once this is completed, we need to obtain a database

that represents the consumer base, on which these new
product scenarios will be “tried out”. This can either be

36 RWD and AWD stands for rear-wheel drive and all-wheel drive respectively

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator
With the given complexity of our network and around
100 product scenarios, the simulation should take no
longer than 30 seconds on a typical desktop computer.
Upon completion, the simulation results will appear in
the form of a pie chart and a table. One can go back and
review the scenarios by clicking the Scenario Editing
button.
The aggregated simulated market shares can also be cop-
ied from the results table and pasted into Excel or any
other application for further editing and presentation
purposes. An example is provided below, showing the
simulated market shares of the brands under study in the
High Premium segment.
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Simulated High Premium Market Shares ($75,000+)
1%
12%
21%
Audi
BMW
3% Jaguar
Lexus
10%
Mercedes
Porsche
53%
As can be seen from the results, the Porsche Panamera’s
predicted market share appears to be compatible with
the reported running rate for calendar year 2010, which
was available at the time of writing. Unfortunately, we
do not know how this compares to Porsche’s expecta-
tions, but the Panamera seems to be quite successful
overall.
Substitution and Cannibalization
The fully simulated database can also be saved as a
semicolon-delimited CSV file, which will allow reviewing
the choice probability for each product scenario by indi-
vidual consumer in a spreadsheet.
We can literally examine the new, simulated choices
record-by-record and see which customers have made
the switch to the Panamera. Applying conditional for-
matting to the spreadsheet can also be very helpful. The
above screenshot, for example, shows a selection of ac-
tual Mercedes buyers, who would either consider or pick
the Porsche Panamera in this simulation. High choice
probabilities are shown in shades of red, while near-zero
probabilities are depicted in dark blue.
19
Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator
It is equally interesting to examine which Porsche buyers
would pick the Panamera over their current vehicle
choice.
Not surprisingly, our simulation suggests high probabili-
ties of Panamera choice for several current Cayenne
owners. One is tempted to take this a step further and
calculate a rate of cannibalization. In this particular sur-
vey, however, the sample size is too small to attempt do-
ing so. Otherwise, such a computation would be simple
arithmetic.
Market Scenario Simulation
Although experimenting with product scenarios is ex-
pected to be the primary use of the Bayesia Market
Simulator, it is also possible to change the market scenar-
ios.
For example, this can be used to simulate the impact of
policy changes. One could hypothesize that legislation
would prohibit or severely penalize ownership of vehi-
cles of a certain size or of a specific engine type in urban
areas.37
37 Given the draconian restrictions on motorists in Central London, this example is presumably not very far-fetched.
38 The all-electric Leaf was launched by Nissan in the U.S. in December of 2010.
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Upon editing the market segments, the simulation can be
rerun to obtain the new market share results.
Limitations
This approach can simulate product and market scenar-
ios consisting of variations of configurations, which can
be observed with sufficient sample today. However, the
impact of entirely new technologies cannot be simulated
on this basis. As a result, projecting the market share of
the all-electric Nissan Leaf38 would not possible, whereas
estimating the share of a hypothetical three-row BMW
crossover vehicle would be feasible. In all cases, it re-
quires the analyst’s expert knowledge and judgment to
determine the adequacy and equivalency of product at-
tributes observable today.
Outlook
There exist several natural extensions to the presented
methodology, however it would go beyond the scope of
this paper to present them. A brief summary shall suffice
for now and we will go into greater detail in forthcom-
ing case studies in this series:
1. Beyond learning from data, we can use expert
knowledge to create or augment Bayesian networks.
BayesiaLab offers a Knowledge Elicitation module,
which formally captures expert knowledge and en-
codes it in a Bayesian network. In absence of market
data, this is an excellent approach to have decision
makers collectively (and formally correct) reason
about future states of the world.
2. We can extend the concept of product attributes to
consumers’ product satisfaction ratings. This will
allow estimating the market share impact as a func-
tion of changes in consumer ratings. For instance,
an automaker could reason about the volume im-
pact from a vehicle facelift, which is expected to
raise the consumer rating of “styling”.
3. The product cannibalization or substitution rate can
be estimated based on the simulated choice behav-
ior, given that there is sufficient sample size. So, for
most mainstream products, this seems to be realistic.
20
Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

4. With the ability to study consumer choice at the

model level, we can also aggregate these results to
the segment level. Alternatively, using a less granular
approach, we can model the entire market at the
segment and brand level, which would allow study-
ing market changes at a larger scale.

5. Beyond simulating “hard” policy changes affecting

the market, e.g. excluding a product class from a
certain geography, we can also use BayesiaLab to
simulate new populations with small changes in
average consumer attitudes versus the originally
surveyed population. For instance, such an artifi-
cially modified population could be more environ-
mentally conscious and one could apply opinions
prevalent on the West Coast to the whole country.
Bayesia Market Simulator can then generate new
market shares based on these new hypothetical
market conditions.

Summary
BayesiaLab and Bayesia Market Simulator are unique in
their ability to use Bayesian networks for choice model-
ing and market share simulation. The presented work-
flow provides a comprehensive method for simulating
market shares of future products based on their key
characteristics, without requiring new and costly ex-
periments.

As a result, BayesiaLab and Bayesia Market Simulator

allow using a vast range of existing research for market
share predictions. Given the significant resources many
corporations have allocated over many years to conduct-
ing consumer surveys, these BayesiaLab tools offer an
entirely new way to turn the accumulated research data
into practical market oracles.

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator
Appendix
Utility-Based Choice Theory
In today’s choice modeling practice, utility-based choice
theory plays a dominant role.
1. The first concept of utility-based choice theory is
that each individual chooses the alternative that
yields him or her the highest utility.
2. The second idea refers to being able to collapse a
vector describing attributes of choice alternatives
into a single scalar utility value for the chooser. For
instance, a vector of attributes for one choice alter-
native, e.g. [Price, Fuel Economy, Safety Rating],
would translate into one scalar value, e.g. [5], spe-
cific to each chooser.
The following example is meant to illustrate both:
For Consumer A:
• Utility of Product 1:
[Price=$25,000, Fuel Economy=25MPG, Safety Rat-
ing=4 stars] = 7 ✓
• Utility of Product 2:
[Price=$29,000, Fuel Economy=23MPG, Safety Rat-
ing=5 stars] = 5.5
For Consumer B:
• Utility of Product 1:
[Price=$25,000, Fuel Economy=25MPG, Safety Rat-
ing=4 stars] = 4
• Utility of Product 2:
[Price=$29,000, Fuel Economy=23MPG, Safety Rat-
ing=5 stars] = 7.5 ✓
This concept implies that consumers make tradeoffs,
either explicitly or implicitly, and that there exists an
amount x of “Fuel Economy” that is equivalent in utility
to an amount y of “Safety”. The reader may reasonably
object that not even a fuel economy of 100MPG would
make it acceptable to drive a vehicle that is rated very
poorly on safety.
Also, we do not know a priori what the utility values are
nor can we measure them. Neither do we know in ad-
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vance how individual product and consumer attributes
relate to these unobservable utilities. However, there are
methods that allow us to estimate these unknown vari-
ables and, based on this knowledge, they allow us to
predict choice in the future. One such method is briefly
highlighted in the following.
Multinomial Logit Models
In the domain of choice modeling, MultiNomial Logit
models (MNL) have become the workhorse of the indus-
try, but here we only want to provide a cursory overview,
so the reader can compare the approach presented in the
case study with current practice.
MNL models provide a functional form for describing
the relationship between the utilities of alternatives and
the probability of choice.
For instance, using an MNL model for a choice situation
with three vehicle alternatives, Altima, Accord and
Camry, the probability of choosing the Altima can be
expressed as:
exp(VAltima )
Pr(Altima) =
exp(VAltima ) + exp(VAccord ) + exp(VCamry )
VAltima in this case stands for the utility of the Altima
alternative. The utilities VAltima, VAccord, and VCamry are a
function of the product attributes, e.g.
VAltima = β1 × Cost Altima + β 2 × FuelEconomyAltima + β 3 × SafetyRatingAltima
As we can observe tangible attributes like vehicle cost,
fuel economy and safety rating, and we can also observe
who bought which vehicle, we can estimate the unknown
parameters. Once we have the parameters, we can simu-
late choices based on new, hypothetical product attrib-
utes, such as a better fuel economy for the Altima or a
lower price for the Camry.
The parameters of MNL models can be estimated both
from “stated preference” (SP) data, i.e. asking consumers
about what they would choose, and “revealed prefer-
ence” (RP) data, i.e. observing what they have actually
chosen. There are numerous variations and extensions
to the class of MNL models and the reader is referred to
Train (2003) and Koppelman (2006) for a comprehen-
sive introduction.
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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

Stated Preference Data
Stated preference data typically comes from experiments,
i.e. consumer surveys or product clinics. In this context,
conjoint experiments have become a very popular choice
elicitation method and a wide range of tools have been
developed for this particular approach. In conjoint stud-
ies, consumers would typically be given a set of artifi-
cially generated product choices along with their attrib-
cal for a much broader audience. Although ELM has
successfully removed the burden of manual coding,
countless iterations of specification and estimation re-
main a very time-consuming task of the analyst.
NVES Variables
The following variables from the 2009 Strategic Vision
NVES were included this case study:

utes, from which preference responses are then elicited.

• UNIQUE IDENTIFIER
There are many variations of this method that all at-
tempt to address some of the inherent challenges related • Combined Base Weight
to dealing with responses to hypothetical questions.
• New Model Purchased - Make/Model/Series (Alpha
The Sawtooth software package has become de-facto Order)
industry standard for such conjoint studies.39
• New Model Purchased - Brand
Revealed Preference Data
• New Model Purchased - Region Origin
In contrast to SP data, revealed preference data is purely
derived from passive observations. As the name implies, • New Model Segment
the consumer choice is revealed by their actual behavior
rather than by their stated intent in a hypothetical situa- • Segmentation 2
tion. A key benefit is that it is typically easier and more
• Type Of Transmission
economical to obtain passive observations than to con-
duct formal experiments. A conceptual limitation of RP • Number Of Cylinders (VIN)
data relates to the fact that non-yet-existing products can
obviously not be chosen by consumers in the present • Drive Type (VIN)
market environment. Thus simulating market shares of
• Fuel Type
hypothetical products requires “assembling” them from
components and attributes of products, which are al- • Gender
ready available in the market. This inherently limits the
exploration of entirely new technologies, which have • Marital Status
little in common with the technologies they may replace.
• Age Bracket
Studies based on RP data have become very popular for
• Children Under 6
researching travel mode choice, as is also documented in
a large body of research. In market research related to • Children 6 To 12
CPG products or durable goods, using RP data is some-
what less common. • Children 13 To 17

We speculate that one of the reasons for the lack of • Total Family Pre-Tax Income
popularity outside the world of academia is the absence
• Ethnic Group
of easy-to-use software packages. Only recently, with the
release of Easy Logit Modeling (ELM)40 , specifying and • Location Of Residence
estimating multinomial logit models has become practi-

39 A wide range of tools is available from Sawtooth Software, Inc., www.sawtoothsoftware.com.

40 Easy Logit Modeling is available from ELM-Works, Inc., www.elm-works.com. ELM can estimate models based on
both RP and SP data, although we only mention it in the RP context.

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

• Customer Region Classification #1 • My choice of vehicle reflects my personality

• I Seek Variety in My Life
• I'm Curious and Open to Experiences
• Luxury is Not Important Unless it Has Purpose
• I Enjoy Expressing Myself Creatively
• I want a vehicle that says a lot about my success in life
/ career
• I will switch brand for features or price
• There are lots of different brands of vehicles that I
would consider buying

• I See Life as Full of Endless Possibilities

• I prefer sofa-like comfort over a cockpit-like interior

• Driving is one of my favorite things to do

• I want a vehicle that provides the quietest interior

• I really don't enjoy driving • I want to look good when driving my vehicle

• Whenever I get a chance, I love to go for a drive

• I want my vehicle to stand out in a crowd

• When I drive for fun, I mainly prefer to relax and lis-

• I would pay significantly more for environmentally
ten to music or talk
friendly vehicle

• I want vehicles that provide that open-air driving ex- • Price is most important to me when buying a new
perience
vehicle

• I prefer a vehicle that has the capability to outperform

• Purchase Price (100's)
others

• I prefer vehicles that provide superior straight ahead

power

• I prefer vehicles that provide superior handling and

cornering agility

• I prefer a balance of comfort and performance

• I prefer vehicles that provide the softest, most com-

fortable ride quality

• I just want the basics on my vehicle - no extras

• Value equals balance of costs, comfort & performance

• I prefer vehicles that project a tough and workmanlike

image

• Vehicles are a 'tool' or a part of the 'gear' in an active

outdoors lifestyle

• I Want to be able to tow heavy loads

• I want to be able to traverse any terrain

• I want the most versatility in my interior

• I want a basic, no frills vehicle that does the job

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

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Simulating Market Share with the Bayesia Market Simulator

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