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Coronavirus in a lesser governed state

By shahzad chaudhry Mar.15,2020

On a wider scale, coronavirus has altered the face of the global economy like never before

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This is our next challenge. Maybe it already is here, just that we don’t know of it for lack of
testing kits and for a laissez faire approach in how we deal with issues even when we know
better. We haven’t mapped our most-at-risk segments of the population and not tested enough
people to know the real spread and depth of how Pakistan may already be infected with
coronavirus. We only know those who enter from the Taftan-Iran border and quarantine them in
our special way. Among them, those that are responsible, or helpless, or persons of lesser means
and influence, or cannot buy their way out, remain. Others simply manage out of even this sham
detention. Of those who travel from China into Pakistan, or now call this country their second
home, we do the perfunctory check only of their body temperature and in testimony of our
eternal friendship outscaling both the Himalayas and the Indian Ocean, we earn their kudos.
The health minister assures us that in the last month and a half — since we woke up to a disease
which was killing people at random — we had had only 20 confirmed cases of the coronavirus.
That beats the odds by the hugest margin going by theorems of exponential growth which is how
the epidemic, now a pandemic, is spreading. There is this extremely well-elaborated narration of
“Exponential Growth and Epidemics” (https://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=Kas0tlxDvrg&feature=youtu.be) which by all counts, if true should have seen numbers
multiply in 10s every few days. But we somehow are still lucky to be in a very selectively linear
growth. And without any mitigating intervention from our side. This trumps science and
mathematics, both.

The explanation in the video above talks of the inflection point when the exponential growth
begins to taper off and then decline. It occurs on two counts: when all are infected with the virus
and there is none left to add to the tally, or when remedial measures kick in to mitigate the
spread through care, discipline, precaution, isolation and extreme hygiene in individual and
collective lives which stem the tide and ultimately reduce it to zero. It’s a mathematical model of
an epidemic and its growth path is based on realistic data establishing a 15-20% increase daily
from the previous day’s numbers — compounding to excessively high rates qualifying it to the
point of an epidemic. A rough calculation suggests that numbers of afflicted must increase in
multiples of 10 over every 15 day period. Our official statements, of course, don’t match such
profound scrutiny. That’s miraculous despite us being a pedestrian society.

I am a man of science and mathematics and know well the society I live in, and the governance
in vogue under various governments and the lack of seriousness that pervades the entire
structure of our state and its people; dengue of last summer is the case in point. We are a poor
people of a poorer nation in a society which is even worse for its habits in collective living. We
may have thus no other recourse than to believe the daily fodder from the health minister that
“all is okay”. It’s a different matter that the WHO has upgraded the level of the spread to a
pandemic. If that is how the epidemic will grow because that is what nature through science and
mathematics ordains, we should assume that we all will soon be afflicted unless we did
something about it. A society that prides itself in not sticking to norms is inherently unhygienic
in how it subsists, and leaves a lot to chance by way of trusting heavenly intervention is not an
ideal place to beat the epidemical growth model.

But here is what is happening in Chagai, close to where an isolation facility has been created for
those who arrive from the heavily-infested Iran: one, they all live in a tented village for
sequestration — hopefully it does the job though it isn’t as sexy as raising two hospitals in 10
days; two, they all amble around freely visiting the local bazaars of Chagai and their tea-shops —
reports now indicate that shops have been set up at the facility as an evolving enterprise. This
should soon exponentially infect all of Chagai for being the backwater in an already poor state,
the locals fear. And finally, with slight greasing of the right palms those quarantined can flee the
confinement and pay their carriers handsomely to take them home. So much for communal
discipline and responsibility. Those afflicted still might survive the disease but will bring others
down that they pass on to. But to know such is beyond their pail.

That’s the society we have built for ourselves over generations leaving little to whinge over. It is
instead the moment to do something. The NSC has done well to meet and bring focus back on
what is already a huge medical emergency. When we wish to enforce something our recourse of
choice is the security apparatus. They can help. Just this week the PM has allocated billions more
in fulfillment of his promise to make five million houses, and create jobs and trigger a part of
economy with this building frenzy. The coronavirus soon might upend such economic initiatives
needing those billions to provide some protection to the people instead. The media too will do
well by moving from ethereal matters in political game-playing to something which is far graver
and imminent as a lockdown looms to save lives across the country. Knowing the society we are
such decisions will need to be enforced.

The decision to cancel the 23rd March Parade is opportune. Using the expense for the parade on
fighting the menace of the coronavirus epidemic is a far more nationalist thing to do. Closing
educational institutions till we have ridden the storm out is equally good, though a tad late.
There shouldn’t be any hesitation to add over time the advice and enforcement of avoiding all
assemblies whether social, organisational or religious, public or private. After all there are
widespread changes brought to how religious functions are being undertaken at the holiest of
sites across all religions. We should be able to ring in changes compatible to the needs of fighting
the challenge of coronavirus and limit its deadly reach.
On a wider scale, coronavirus has altered the face of the global economy like never before.
Economies are stalled, production ceased, consumption restricted and trading impossible. The
world is in a state of suspension. Oil has taken a hit, as have stock markets across the world.
People and states are holding on to their liquid cash. They anticipate using it for more emergent
needs driven by the pandemic. We too need to control our expenditure holding onto what we
have till the storm is over. Science doesn’t lie and numbers even lesser. It is good to pay heed
now and mend what is either already broken or about to despite the bliss of our ignorance, and
perhaps some delayed reaction.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 15th, 2020.

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Understaffed
By editorial Mar.15,2020

The problems with the civil services exams are well documented and can often be found on these pages.

An annual report from the Establishment Division has shown that there may be as many as
81,479 vacant posts in the federal government, or around 12.29% of all posts, across the country.
In the autonomous bodies and corporations of the federal government, this shortfall rises to
115,909, or around 22.5% of the vacant posts in that sector. The most vacancies were in the
attached or subordinate departments of various ministries where the existing strength was
558,943 and where there were some 77,028 positions unassigned. In terms of share of employees,
Punjab has the most employees at 47.66%. K-P enjoys a 26% share in federal government jobs
even though population-wise it comes out to just 14.69% of the total population. Sindh has a
14.01% share of jobs with the Division, with the balance tilted in favour of rural centres of the
province. Balochistan, AJK, and G-B make up the rest.

While these numbers have fluctuated over the past decade, the shortfall in employees reflects the
government’s failure to adequately fill slots. The problems with the civil services exams are well
documented and can often be found on these pages. The most obvious downside of not being
fully staffed is that government departments cannot fulfil their functions optimally. And when
they fail to do so, things slip through the gaps. Overworked employees try to shirk as much work
as they possibly can in order to deal with their increased workloads. But the government, which
has already told the Cabinet Division that it can forget about raises this year owing to a paucity of
funds, is hard-pressed to fill these posts. Perhaps the government may be able to find at least a
partial panacea in the tilt to digital where some functions can either be automated or digitised
with the help of technologies such as artificial intelligence and blockchain – not only to increase
efficiency but also to help lower overall staffing requirements. 

Published in The Express Tribune, March 15th, 2020.

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Out of hibernation
By editorial Mar.15,2020

Maryam Nawaz has come out of political hibernation – after nearly six months.

Open until 7 PM Islamabad

Maryam Nawaz has come out of political hibernation – after nearly six months. The Sharif family
scion on Thursday visited the residences of senior PML-N leaders Shahid Khaqan Abbasi and
Ahsan Iqbal to felicitate them over their release from jail. That turned out to be Maryam’s first
public appearance since August 2019 when she was arrested in a corruption case concerning
Chaudhry Sugar Mills. She was released on bail on November 4, but maintained a low profile.
Her Twitter handle, which would hardly spare an opportunity to target the ruling PTI and Prime
Minister Imran Khan, remained silent too, giving rise to speculations that she had been quiet in
line with some kind of political understanding with the powers that be.

What triggered the young PML-N leader to suddenly break her half-a-year long silence has been
a subject of political debate in the country even though the growing coronavirus scare has left
little space on the media to discuss anything else. Maryam’s sudden appearance is most likely
aimed at addressing a very vocal dissent within the PML-N against the top leadership. With
Nawaz Sharif and Shehbaz Sharif out of the country and Hamza Shehbaz languishing behind
bars, Maryam’s self-imposed restrictions meant that the party has nobody at the helm and that a
leadership crisis can risk desertion from the party.

Many an analyst, however, believe that Maryam’s re-emergence on the political scene is just a
pressure tactic meant to clear the obstacles to her leaving for London to join her father. And,
Maryam’s admiration of Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, Ahsan Iqbal, Rana Sanullah and Saad Rafique
and her assertion that “Mian Nawaz Sharif must have been happy” with the way they
“courageously underwent incarceration” may well be a message for party workers to know
which leaders within the party actually enjoy the backing of Nawaz Sharif and represent the
party’s official narrative.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 15th, 2020.

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Shortage of corona masks

By editorial Mar.15,2020

Humanity and the whole wide world around needs to join hands in the fight against the deadly virus

There are reports that there is a shortage of protective masks used against the coronavirus and
other related accessories in the country. The Federal Investigation Agency is to investigate the
issue to establish whether the shortage has been caused due to the rising demand or some scum
of the earth has created an artificial shortage to cash in on human suffering. The fact remains:
there is a shortage of masks as they are not available even to medics and all those associated
with the healthcare sector. People should not get carried away by speculations being made in a
section of the media about the reasons for the shortage. We should wait for the FIA inquiry
report. There are also reports that the demand for protective masks during the gas leak in
Keamari, Karachi, is one of the causes leading to the shortage. All of this, however, are mere
conjectures.

The Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan took notice of the reports of masks being sold in the
black market. Actions yielded results and prices came down. According to press reports, the
government had banned export of respiratory masks and of other related items on January 30. A
spokesman for the relevant ministry claimed that the ban was relaxed and masks were allowed
to be exported at the request of the Chinese embassy in Islamabad. The relaxation of the ban was
reasonable in view of the Pakistan’s friendly relations with China, and considering the enormity
of the epidemic in China till a fortnight ago.

There are, however, certain immoral elements who are trying to exploit a bad situation to their
advantage both to make money and to defame responsible quarters. Such crooks are always
present everywhere, and stupidity has a knack of getting its way. Crooks cannot be made straight
but they can be compelled to mend their ways by the use of the state’s coercive machinery. An
overwhelming reality of a global pandemic is with us and the situation calls for close
international cooperation. A pestilence is upon us, and humanity the whole wide world around
needs to join hands in the fight against the deadly virus. This is the moment.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 15th, 2020.

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Coping with the deadly virus

By m ziauddin Mar.14,2020

All countries would need to take concrete policy steps to protect their people and limit harm to their economies

‫دﻧﯿﺎ ﮐﯽ ﺑﮩﺘﺮن ﺷﺎدی ﮐﯽ‬

‫وﯾﺐ ﺳﺎﺋﭧ‬

Part of Pakistan seems to be in a state of denial as except for Sindh and Iran-Balochistan border
area, one does not see even rudimentary measures being undertaken anywhere else, to protect
the population and the economy from an actual outbreak of coronavirus.

According to a World Bank newsletter dated March 9, 2020 (Swift action can help developing
countries limit economic harm of coronavirus by Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, Vice President, Equitable
Growth, Finance and Institutions (EFI), World Bank Group) in the coming weeks, all countries
would need to take concrete policy steps to protect their people and limit harm to their
economies.

Both the World Bank Group and the MF have unveiled massive financial-support packages. The
World Bank Group’s initial fast-track package of $12 billion will immediately support the efforts
of developing countries to strengthen health systems. Depending on the duration and the
severity of the epidemic, the Bank will be ready to provide a second phase of support with a
greater focus on economic and social impacts.

The package deploys the Bank’s full array of capabilities — from the Bank, the International
Development Association (IDA), and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) — to limit the
damage as quickly as possible. IFC, for instance, is working with commercial banks to expand
trade finance and working capital for businesses. It will also directly support its corporate clients
to sustain supply chains and limit downside risks.

As Ms Pazabasioglu points out no one can reliably predict the full economic impact of the
outbreak.

“The outbreak arrived at a weak point for the world economy, when global growth was
beginning to pick up from its lowest rate since the 2009 financial crisis.

“That has troubling implications for developing economies: Tighter credit conditions, weaker
growth, and the diversion of government resources to fight the outbreak would reduce funds
available for key development priorities. An economic slump would also set back the fight
against extreme poverty. It is imperative, therefore, that policymakers everywhere recognize
how economic harm can be transmitted from one country to another — and to prevent its quick
spread.”

That transmission is likely to occur through several channels. The first is trade: global value
chains, which account for nearly half of global trade, are being disrupted by factory shutdowns
and delayed resumption of operations. The second is foreign financial flows, which could be
shifted away from coronavirus-affected countries. The third is domestic capital — human as well
as financial — which is becoming underutilised as factories are idled and people stay at home.
The fourth is transport and tourism, a major revenue stream for many developing countries that
is shrinking with declining demand and expanding travel restrictions. Finally, sharp drops in
commodity prices will harm developing countries that rely on them for much-needed revenue.

Tackling these challenges will require global cooperation, maintains Ms Pazabasioglu.

“Governments should avoid protectionist policies, which would exacerbate disruptions to global
value chains and amplify already elevated levels of uncertainty. Even more important,
governments should avoid restricting exports of necessary food and medical products and
instead work together to support increased production and ensure that resources flow to where
they are most needed.”

Developing countries, according to Ms Pazabasioglu, should move to:

Boost spending on health: In many developing countries, public health systems remain weak,
making their populations vulnerable to the rapid spread of the outbreak. Governments should
boost investments that strengthen these systems to enable faster treatment and containment.

Strengthen the safety net: Cash transfers and free medical services for the most vulnerable
people would help contain the outbreak and also limit its financial harm.

Counter financial-market disruptions: Central banks in developing countries — particularly those

that are sensitive to bouts of risk aversion — should stand ready to react to disorderly financial
market movements. They may need to lower interest rates and inject liquidity to restore financial
stability and boost growth.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 14th, 2020.

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 ☰

South Punjab province

By rustam shah mohmand Mar.15,2020

PTI government needs to put its house in order and save the federation from fragmentation

Implement a sustainable
PPP

The creation of a new province will open the Pandora’s Box, wrecking the federation and
creating a crisis where there is none — something the PTI government is adept at doing. As if the
formidable challenges the government confronts on a daily basis are not enough, in its naivety it
has announced that a new province called South Punjab will be created by making a suitable
amendment to the Constitution.
No government in Pakistan has managed to create such huge frustration and despondency in the
lives of millions of impoverished Pakistanis in such a short time. The mayhem that the country
faces today, whether in the form of the ever-escalating prices, currency devaluation, closure of
factories, rising unemployment, or relations with neighbouring countries being at an all-time
low, are all attributable in large measure to the preposterous and wholly unrealistic policies that
are being pursued by the current dispensation. Regardless of the motives, there is clearly an
awful lack of vision, experience and competence.

The public anger at the worsening economic situation could have been handled with foresight
and a pragmatic approach. The situation demanded a thoughtful and calculated policy steeped in
objective reality. Instead, there was greater emphasis on rhetoric and hurling wild accusations
against all former governments.

In a bizarre move, the government has announced its intention to create a new province in
South Punjab, with complete disregard to the spreading acrimony on account of the above stated
problems.

So what will the new province deliver to the people? Decentralisation or the devolution of power
is an ongoing process that could be strengthened. The new province, which is not really rooted in
the aspirations of the people, would mean more residences and offices, and more staff and
ministers — all at the expense of development which will in turn take place at the expense of the
broader goal of socio-economic emancipation of the masses. Billions of rupees would go into
creating new department buildings and tens of millions on their maintenance. This would
inevitably incur a cost on the environment, the value of which would be difficult to assess.

The creation of the South Punjab province will set the ball rolling for more provinces. The bill for
the creation of the Hazara province has already been submitted to the Senate Secretariat and the
demand for the province will now get a powerful boost. Fast on its heels, there would be a
demand to declare Karachi as a separate province. The dying ethno-linguistic movements would
also get a new lease on life. There would be a campaign for a separate Baloch province too.
Similar demands would emanate from other parts of the country, like the Dera Ismail Khan
division and the Tribal areas.

For the next few years the energies and resources of the government and political parties would
then be invested in confrontations over the creation of new provinces with critical nation
building issues like quality education, healthcare, communications, industrialisation, climate
change and agriculture taking a back seat.
The debate for new provinces is likely to generate acute polarisation in the society and cause
deep schism at all levels in national politics. It would promote more distrust and hostility and
deliver very little. Precious resources would be squandered on unproductive schemes that will
bear no value to the common man.

Before the contagion spreads it needs to be stopped. If not, the politicians will soon find a new
favourite topic to raise alarm over, and by so doing attract attention.

Can the country afford such futile ventures at such a great cost to the exchequer when resources
are shrinking and the population is fast expanding?

The PTI government needs to put its house in order and save the federation from fragmentation
otherwise it will be easy to wreck the federation if this madness continues.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 15th, 2020.

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 ☰

Modi’s lecture on international relations

By muhammad ali ehsan Mar.15,2020

India has done enough to force us to adjust. It is time India adjusted itself and made space for us.

The Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, recently gave a lecture to the world on international
relations. In fact, what sounded as a lecture on international relations was Prime Minister Modi’s
address to the inaugural session of The Economic Times Global Business Summit on March 6,
2020, in New Delhi. Considering that our relation, engagement and competition with India
remains a very important foreign policy issue, nothing that PM Modi says on the subject should
escape our attention.

Ridiculing his own opposition parties, PM Modi said, “Such people feel that inaction is the most
convenient action but for us nation building, country’s development and governance is not an
issue of inconvenience but conviction. Conviction to do the right thing, the conviction to break
the status quo.” Crediting himself for breaking the status quo, which he has done through his
ongoing political repression at home, Modi has harmed India more than he has benefitted it.

He and his team of BJP hardliners increasingly remind me of the rule of the Thirty Tyrants (404-
403 BC) who led by Critias ruled Athens as thirty commissioners appointed to the oligarchy.
These Thirty were the puppets of Sparta and were backed by the Spartan troops. Much like BJP,
they had an extremist conservative core and formed an oppressive regime which fostered a
bloody purge resulting in the confiscation of citizens’ property and the killing of 5% of the
Athenian population. Many Athenians who were opposed to this type of government were forced
to leave Athens.

What happened in Athens (the birth place of democracy) almost 2,400 years ago is being
repeated today in the largest and most populous democracy in the world, India. While Jesus
needed the cross to fulfil his mission and Socrates needed the hemlock for his, the BJP is all set to
utilise the division through saffron to accomplish its mission. The “cold murderous saffron
madness” in India is setting it ablaze. PM Modi is not prepared to understand and perceive this
and while he boasts about his actions it is actually the inaction of his law enforcement agencies
during the killing and murder of innocent Muslims in India that is raising the bar of India ever
becoming a responsible democracy. Like Athens, India today is being ruled by the ‘Thirty
Tyrants’. To the great relief of the followers of history, these men even after 2,400 years are not
remembered for their foul democratic actions but their brutality and tyranny.

PM Modi also spoke about his new India which “from being equidistant from all nations was now
friends with everyone”. He also spoke about the world which is very “interconnected,
interrelated and interdependent” today. But despite this connectedness, he said, “The world is
not able to come on one stage for global agenda of removing poverty, fighting terrorism or
addressing climate change.” The question one may ask the Indian PM is: Why talk big when small
talk is so much easier to understand and so close to reality? The whole region suffers because of
the unfriendly position his government has taken against Pakistan. The interconnectedness and
interdependence in the region suffer only because India acts as a hegemon, expecting countries
like Pakistan to alter their behaviour and adjust as per Indian wishes and dictates.
India has done enough to force us to adjust. It is time India adjusted itself and made space for us.
If India wants to run a marathon it should know we will not budge and run at an equal pace with
it. Economically, strategically as well as militarily, Indian policy towards Pakistan has been a total
failure. For Pakistan its competition with India remains the single most important foreign policy
issue and it will continue to compete with it in all sectors while simultaneously maintaining and
ensuring the balance of power between the two nations.

The Modi-initiated Indo-Pak Cold War guarantees two things — grave costs and uncertain
outcomes. As long as the Indo-Pak Cold War continues there is little chance that suitable
conditions would ever emerge to promote friendship, overcoming the challenges of climate
change, reduction in acts of terrorism or reduction in the ever-increasing state of poverty in the
two countries.

As far as Pakistan is concerned our external behaviour is benefiting the world (Pakistan’s role in
the US–Taliban peace deal) and our internal challenges no more remain as draconian as they
were during the uninterrupted use of Afghan soil by India to export trouble in Pakistan. While
violence engulfs India, we are recreating an environment of national calm and politeness (in fact
PSL now makes the internal environment very fun-filled and entertaining). For itself, Modi-led
India sought international domination while scheming to internationally and regionally isolate
us. Aggrieved, we became more resentful and committed to come out of the hole that Modi’s
India tried to dig for us. Today the world can clearly see that while hardliners in India are
pushing and driving policy, they are being restrained, controlled and kept under check in
Pakistan.

Unfortunately, India under PM Modi has not been able to act as the “responsible stake- holder”
that this region needed. Under PM Modi, India’s consistent support to Afghanistan and
encouraging its government to rise up against Pakistan has been a “hedging approach” that has
ultimately failed. Today Pakistan is a responsible stakeholder, reaching out and exerting its
influence in the region together with other states as well as non-state actors. The steps that it is
undertaking against terrorism and money laundering are being universally admired and
appreciated. Those that tried to push us into the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list and
from there to the black list have had their tails firmly tucked between their legs with shame.

Pakistan today enjoys a strategic relationship with a rising China and a reconsidered, improving
and good relationship with a hurtful and resurgent Russia that seeks to regain its lost
superpower status in the world. In fact, it is Pakistan, more than India, that enjoys friendly
relations with both the powers in the region. India’s friendly relations with Russia remain but its
rediscovered strategic partnership and tilt towards the US is not to the liking of the Russians.

But most importantly, despite limited Indian aggression against us over the last few years, we
have proved to them that we can fend off any attacks. Our resilient and professional military has
proved so.

Despite his speech on international relations, PM Modi must know that the “collateral damage” of
India’s aggressive approach of conducting a proxy war, coercive and hybrid operations against
Pakistan has boomeranged and has come back to hit India hard within its own borders. If
anything, the spillover of illiberalism all over India is a true reflection of this.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 15th, 2020.

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