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McKinsey2 PDF
Briefing Note
Global Health & Crisis Response
Updated: March 16, 2020
Executive summary
Sources: World Health Organization Situation Reports, news reports, McKinsey analysis McKinsey & Company 3
Contents
01 02 03 04
COVID-19 Possible Actions for Leading
The situation future companies to indicator
now scenarios consider dashboards
High (>4)
Reproduction number 3 (average number
1.5-2x
G Polio3
Chickenpox Smallpox K
in outbreak setting)
Up to 20%
Medium (2-4)
MERS-CoV J
F SARS-CoV
Of cases have a severe/critical form of the
COVID-19
disease6
C Zika
Low (2-4)
Africa 2014)
Case Fatality Ratio in South Korea after A Influenza H1N1 2009
widespread testing. CFR appears higher
where cases are missed and is higher when
health systems are overwhelmed2 Low (<2%) Medium (2-15%) High (>15%)
Case Fatality 4 (proportion of deaths among confirmed cases)
1. Evidence on exact numbers are emerging, however expected to decrease as viral containment measures intensify and treatments are developed
2. WHO estimates the global average CFR at 3.4%, dependent on conditions such as patient age, community immunity, and health system capabilities. Latest case fatality ratios were calculated as death/ cases
3. In outbreak setting or the introduction of a new disease
4. Case Fatality numbers reflect outbreak settings and factors such as the patient's age, community immunity and health system capabilities
5. Estimates are very context and time specific, however are provided from prior outbreaks based on academic lit review
6. WHO estimates 15% severe and 5% critical
Sources: World Health Organization, CDC, Nature, The Lancet, PLOS One The Journal of Infectious Diseases, BMC Infectious Di seases, Infectious Disease Modelling, news reports McKinsey & Company 5
Current as of March 16, 2020
Sources: World Health Organization, CDC, news reports McKinsey & Company 6
Current as of March 16, 2020
complexes”
Total deaths >1,700
Propagation trend
Mature/ on-going propagation
100-249
Total cases >2,300
50-99 Total deaths >40
10-49
Middle East3
<10
Total cases >13,900 Asia (excl China) 2
Total deaths >620
Total cases >10,100
Total deaths >110
1. WHO data is lagging behind news reports for United States. In United States, CDC & WHO reports >1,600 cases; New York Times reports >3,600 cases
2. Includes Western Pacific and South-East Asia WHO regions; excludes China; Note that South Korea incremental cases are declining, however other countries are increasing
3. Eastern-Mediterranean WHO region
New cases declined ~75% in Significant preparedness & rapid regulatory approval
South Korea process for tests
the last week with potential
>8,100 >70 ~0.9% decline or plateau1 Rapid roll-out of diagnostics (e.g., diagnostic drive-
through)
Cases Deaths Case Fatality2
Hospitalization available for lower-severity cases &
significant hospital coordination
Italy ~3,500 new cases on March Efforts initially focused on Northern Italy, but efforts
now extend to the entire country, including
15th – the highest in the
>21,100 >1,400 ~6.8% world, corresponding to a
cancellations of larger gatherings
Cases Deaths Case Fatality2 ~180% increase in the
Healthcare recruiting efforts due to strain
US3 US cases are increasing daily, A national emergency was declared on March 13 with
Congress aiming to provide testing free of charge
however official reporting
>1,600 >40 ~2.4% may be lagging1 >29 states have declared emergency with a range of
Cases Deaths Case Fatality2 actions including school closures, bans on large
gatherings and large-scale testing plans
1. Number of new confirmed cases on March 15th compared to March 8th
2. Case Fatality calculated as ( total deaths) / (total cases) – this rate is evolving and dependent upon several factors, including number of suspected cases that are tested
3. WHO data is lagging behind news reports for United States; In United States, CDC & WHO reports >1,600 cases; New York Times reports >3,600 cases McKinsey and Company 8
Source: WHO situation reports, US CDC, press search
Current as of March 16, 2020
Severe 15%
Critical
5%
2020
Source: JAMA, WHO March 6 reports, JAMA, WSJ and associated press interviews with Italian physicians McKinsey and Company 9
Current as of March 16, 2020
Context Total cases by country and age segment, Percent by age segment Approximate age range1
0-19
In all three countries, there is a significant
difference in the age distribution 20-49
100% = 50-69
There is only a small percentage of cases 6% 2% 1% 70+
found among the youngest populations (0- 24% Undiagnosed
19) despite frequent contact with other
individuals (school, public transport)
44%
52%
37%
42%
32%
38%
10% 12%
Undiagnosed Undiagnosed Undiagnosed
(TBD) (TBD) (TBD)
South Korea China Italy
~0.8-.9% fatalities ~2.3-4.0% fatalities2 ~4.3-7.2% fatalities2
1. Italy reports age segments slightly differently than South Korea and China thus categories are rounded
2. Note - Data reported from ISS March 15 reports 7.2%, however latest deaths/ cases from WHO indicates this may be higher
3. Note: Data reported from China February 11 reports 2.3%, however, latest deaths/cases from WHO indicate this may be higher
Source: Korea CDC, China CDC, ISS Italian National Health Service McKinsey and Company 10
Current as of March 16, 2020
Case fatality rate data from three countries shows that older populations are
at greater risk overall
Data as of February 11 in China, 2020, and as of March 16 and 15, 2020, in South Korea and Italy, respectively
Context Case fatality rate (%) by age segment South Korea China Italy
Rates vary
significantly by age, 14.8 Fatalities may
co-morbidity, health lag incremental
system strength and 12.5 case reporting
other factors
9.3
8.0
6.8-7.2%
5.3 Avg Italy1
3.6 3.5 2.3-4.0%
Avg China1
1.3 1.0 1.4
0.8-0.9% Avg
0 0 0 0 0.2 0 0 0.2 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4
South Korea
0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+
Age range
1. Note - data reported from China Feb 11 reports 2.3%, however latest deaths/cases from WHO indicate this may be higher
Source: L’Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) Italy, WHO, Korea CDC, China CDC McKinsey and Company 11
Contents
01 02 03 04
COVID-19 Possible Actions for Leading
The situation future companies to indicator
now scenarios consider dashboards
Scenario overview
COVID-19 has seen a consistent case Delayed Recovery China and East Asian countries start
decline in countries that had China and East Asian countries continue recovery but supply chains remain
experienced rapid case growth early their current recovery and control the impaired
(esp China, South Korea) virus by late Q1 or early Q2 2020 US and Europe large-scale quarantines,
European and US case count growth travel restrictions, and social distancing
However, cases outside of Asia are rises rapidly through mid-April drive drop-off in consumer spending and
growing dramatically, driven primarily business investment in 2020
by complexes in Europe and the
Middle East. The United States, while
Prolonged Contraction China and East Asia experience double-
it has confirmed only a limited number dip slowdowns as economic recovery is
of new cases, may experience a large China and East Asian countries face a
derailed in 2020 and pushed into Q1
increase in cases once testing kits surge of re-infection as they attempt to
2021
restart economic activity
become widely available The United States and Europe
The virus is not seasonal with a mutated
experience demand-side reductions in
virus resurging in the fall of 2020
consumer and business spending and
deep recessions in 2020
Sources: World Health Organization Situation Reports, news reports, McKinsey analysis McKinsey & Company 13
Current as of March 16, 2020
spread across the Middle Fall 2020 sees a resurgence of the virus. • Corporate bankruptcies spike, putting
Although countries have better public-health pressure on the banking/financial system
East, Europe, and the preparedness globally • Monetary easing has limited impact with
United States until mid- Iran continues to be the epicenter in Middle already low rates and fiscal responses prove
Q2, when virus East; Southeast and South Asia, Africa, and Latin insufficient and poorly timed
seasonality combined America are spared worst effects due to their • Self-reinforcing recession dynamics extend
warm climates and young demographics
with a stronger public- GDP declines through Q3; recovery begins in
health response drives China and East Asian countries continue their Q4
current recovery and control the virus by late Q1 2020 Global GDP growth falls sharply, driven by
case-load reduction or early Q2 2020 recessions in the United States and Europe and
slower growth in China and other Asian
countries.
McKinsey & Company 14
Current as of March 16, 2020
Crisis nerve centers can help in situations with three When setting up a nerve center, consider four key
determining features: actions:
A disruption or crisis requires immediate attention. It may • Discover an accurate view of the situation through
have arrived or be imminent multisource “listening posts,” assess how it might
evolve, and derive implications for the organization
The situation is novel due to the nature or scale of the
threat, which distinguishes it from a “routine emergency” • Design a trigger-based portfolio of actions—
immediate and strategic—with a pragmatic
The disruption is unfolding faster than the organization operating model to develop detailed plans and act
can understand or interpret using the usual approaches, on them
such as an extensive strategic study
• Decide on strategic actions quickly after stress-
COVID-19 fits these criteria, so a nerve center may help testing of hypotheses and alternatives, ensuring
companies quickly assess the situation and consider and adherence to company and societal values
choose plans of action, and execute those plans.
• Deliver in a disciplined, efficient way, keeping
sufficient flexibility to adapt to the changing
landscape
Based on discussions with risk and health professionals and more than 200 companies across sectors
1 Policy & Management Portfolio of policies and actions incl. prevention and incident response
2 Two Way Communication Multi-channel communications | Confidential reporting mechanisms | Source of truth
Workforce
A protection
3 Personnel & contractors Tiering (all/some/no WFH) | Infra setup (VPN, laptops, desktops) | Broadband availability
4 Facility & On-site norms Staggering work shifts/times | Prevention (e.g., Social distancing) | Closures
5 Health & Govt engagement Local & federal regulators and public health officials
1 Supplier engagement Cross-tier risk transparency | Supplier restart | Order mgmt. | New supplier qualifications
Integrated 4 Demand management S&OP SKU-level demand signal estimates by macro scenario | Production and sourcing plan
Center 1 B2B transparency Comms to B2B customers (e.g., microsite) | Scenario-based risk comms
Customer
C engagement
2 Customer protection Prevention interventions across customer journey | Cust. team training | Execution monitoring
3 Customer outreach Customer comms re: COVID-practices | Fact-based reports on issues | Situation comms
Stress-test 1 Scenario definition Relevant scenarios based on latest epidemiological & economic outlook
D financials 2 Financial stress tests Financials in different scenarios, especially working capital requirements
1 Issue map & management Single source of truth for issue resolution & tapping surge resources where needed
Operate
E nerve center
2 Portfolio of actions Trigger-based portfolio of actions (across all workstreams above)
Executive team
Scenarios
Overall guidelines/ policies Leadership team Issue map
Medical | Security | Response lead
Guides for frontline managers Oper cadence
Regulatory alignment Communicate across Disruption, restart Building management Work from home Financial stress-testing
(e.g., dispensations) employee channels support (e.g., loans) Factory management execution/ infra
3rd party comms (e.g., to 2 way feedback Exposure across tiers Special employee
partners) as required (ombuds, survey, email, Inventory mgmt. segment management
call) (e.g., where WFH not
possible)
should consider
I. Policy & 1. Develop policies, which adhere to public-health recommendations and workplace laws, including
Management those on sick leave, as well as business priorities/continuity
2. Set policies for remote working and who can access the workplace at what times (eg,
how to protect staggering shifts, business-critical employees on site only)
3. Set sign-off processes for policy changes
their workforce II. Two-way 1. Select communication channels and set protocols to communicate early and often
Communication 2. Develop approach for cascaded communications to provide clarity and direction
Overall policies should consider 3. Establish two-way communication and confidential reporting for employees
safety first, especially for high 4. Use official authorities for information (eg, WHO and CDC)
risk individuals, as well as how III. Personnel 1. Identify and tier critical functions and roles, including back-office functions
to maintain business & contractors 2. Assess infrastructure needs for remote working or other flexible models (eg, VPN, broadband,
operations laptops, remote desktop, etc.); consider piloting/testing system first to learn and adapt (eg,
everyone on multiday pilot, remote desktop trials with subset of employees)
These should be in-line with 3. Adapt reporting and sign-off processes to reduce loss of productivity (eg, devolved
local health authority guidance responsibility); consider training managers on how to manage remotely
and regulatory requirements 4. Agree on adaptations required for collective bargaining units (eg, unions, int’l work councils)
5. Agree on policies and incentives with contractors
IV. Workplace & 1. Implement physical mechanisms to reduce transmission (eg, cleaning, staggering shifts)
norms 2. Communicate with site leaders/N-1 leaders to clarify accountability and authority (eg, WFH)—
err on side of agile and localized decision-making
3. Define contingency plans for workplace closures (eg, seating capacity in other buildings)
II. Two-way Publish communications (regularly and in response to major events) Provide real-time communication channels, nurse hot-line, Cascade communications via site leaders/regional leaders Organizations
including who to contact with questions, policies on remote working and ombudsman support
Communication and travel, and resources on hygiene and health; assign
Develop a global central intranet page with updated should consult
Develop confidential and compliant self-reporting policies and information, automatic alerts from key sources,
multidisciplinary comms. leads to control messaging across functions
mechanisms guidance by region (linked to country guidance) with official
Post hand-washing instructions and other hygiene resources in visible
locations such as bathrooms
Provide regular updates from C -level or N-1 executives Provided information not only to employees and guidelines to
caregivers/family members on cases (while maintaining
confidentiality and in-line with authorities)
establish
actions based
III. Personnel Provide work-from-home options and infrastructure where feasible Encourage all non -direct labor to work remotely Enforce work from home for affected offices or functions
on the severity
Send tips on remote working Install VPN for employees; provide devices where needed Add redundancies for all critical enablers for remote
working (eg additional telecom subscription or laptops) or risk of the
Collaborate with contractors on planning for outbreak Stagger work schedules to reduce crowding
Provide personal protective gear for select frontline workers where Ensure sick leave is understood by all employees including
Develop tools to allow traveling/remote employees to situation and
appropriate (eg, healthcare professionals) contractors
assess risk and obtain guidance for specific territories
consult with
Provide guidance on productivity during WFH for field staff
Develop contingency plans for all middle/back offices
for when they cannot conduct visits (eg, trainings)
health
professionals
IV. Workplace Identify and reduce risk factors for transmission (eg shared tools) Implement shifts to reduce overcrowding Temporarily close offices in highly affected areas
& norms Sanitize common areas and workspace more frequently Restrict factory floor access; Restrict HQ access in Provide on-site health personnel to provide information and Multiple
affected area to outside visitors answer questions and offer health checks at facilities
Provide hygiene supplies in key areas and encourage handwashing guidelines are
Divide production facilities by splitting critical workforce Convert fingerprint access to retinal access to reduce
Limit cafeteria-style food and communal snacks
across different locations, sealing areas and doing transmission provided by
Increase ventilation by opening windows and ensuring filters are handovers without physical contact the WHO and
replaced where needed
Increase spacing between seating in cafeterias and CDC
Encouraged non-handshake greetings & social distancing conference rooms
Limit meeting sizes/conduct virtual meetings Develop manager accountability and plan for staffing (eg,
hospitals, manufacturing)
Health & Review WHO and local regulatory guidelines Develop a risk assessment in partnership with a health Conduct periodic testing with agency
professional
Government Identify nearest healthcare providers/testing sites and collaborate
with health insurers Establish testing protocol with local regulatory bodies
Engagement
Source: Press search, organization interviews McKinsey & Company 21
Current as of March 16, 2020
Source: CDC, WHO, NHS, SF Public Health Dept McKinsey & Company 22
Current as of March 16, 2020
High transmission
Sick family Exposure Workforce
member on the line on sick leave
A: Policies &
An employee indicates One employee on the After a recent exposure,
that their family floor or call center tested the next day 60% of the
member recently tested positive for COVID-19 workforce call in sick
Management positive for COVID-19
and they were exposed
At least 20 other
individuals were exposed
Critical functions are
now at risk
They also recently including some temp
Organizations should attended the latest
company retreat
agents
develop company-
wide policies to each Colleague may Workforce C-Suite
of these scenarios be sick remote symptoms
Employee observes that Company has made The CEO and CFO both
and work with local a colleague is starting to decision to make all recently came down with
exhibit symptoms of employees in a site work possible symptoms
leaders to tailor / illness; they have an
underlying health
remotely They are both in the
All critical functions are same location, yet
adapt condition and request to
work from home
being performed offices exist around the
remotely, for the first world
time
High severity
McKinsey & Company 23
Current as of March 16, 2020
1 Create transparency
on multi-tier supply chain 3 Optimize production
and distribution capacity 4 Estimate realistic
final customer demand
Determine critical components, Assess impact on operations and available Work with S&OP to get demand
and determine origin of supply resource capacity (mainly workforce) signal to determine required supply
Assess interruption risk and identify Ensure employee safety and clearly Leverage direct communication
likely Tier 2+ risk communicate with employees channels with direct customer
to-end
immediate
supply chain
actions to Tier 2 supplier Tier 1 supplier Plant DC Customer Customer's
customers
consider in
response
2 Analyze available
5 Leverage available logistics capacity
to COVID-19
inventory
Estimate inventory along the value Estimate available logistics capacity for air/sea/road/rail
chain, including spare parts/ re-
Accelerate customs clearance
manufactured stock
Change mode of transport and pre-book air/rail capacity given
Use after sales stock as bridge to
current exposure
keep production running
Collaborate with all parties to jointly leverage freight capacity
B: Supply
chain actions
to consider in Continuously Kick off designing Build collaborative
improve material resilient supply chain relationships with
the next two to supply stability for the future external partners
four months
Evaluate alternative sourcing Establish a supply chain risk Work with public agencies to
for all materials impacted – function explore opportunities for
availability of suppliers, support
additional cost due to Digitize process and tools to
logistics, tariffs, estimated integrate demand, supply, and Engage investors and other
component price increases capacity planning stakeholders to improve
transparency and get help
Enhance the demand Trigger the new supply
verification process to correct network design for resilience
inflated demand to mitigate
the whiplash effect Codify the processes and
tools created during the crisis
Provide continuous support to management as formal
small and mid-sized tier 2-3 documentation
suppliers in financial trouble
Convert war room into
Assess regional risks for a reliable risk management
current and backup suppliers process
McKinsey & Company 25
Contents
01 02 03 04
COVID-19 Possible Actions for Leading
The situation future companies to indicator
now scenarios consider dashboards
Supply chains are being disrupted around the world, Impact High
Medium
but the full impacts have not yet been felt Low
or or
80% plants restarted 2M idle containers 60% China flights suspended 5 60% truck staff available 90% decline in car sales
Situation Across China, ex-Hubei, with large 8.8% of global container capacity Commercial flights account for 1-14 day quarantine- and China consumer sentiment sharply
today enterprises restarting, albeit with
~60% capacity, at much higher
affected by reduced demand ~50% of air cargo capacity, some
airlines converting flights for
capacity -induced increase in
freight transport times
lower; online/express deliveries
up
rate than smaller ones cargo6
52% BDI increase 2x TAC index MED MED
Baltic Dry Index 1 52% higher since TAC index rate +98% for US- Demand for express last -mile Europe & US sentiments evolving,
CLNY3 but at same level as China, +117% EU-China2, +21% delivery has spiked in China due to but localized
February 2019 China-US, and +2% for China-EU quarantine and social distancing
since CLNY3
MED 7,000 TEU/wk reduction 5% global air traffic decrease 4 High High
What Parts and labor shortages leading Volumes will return as factories Decline in capacity available due Trucking capacity constraints in Demand slump may persist
to expect to further SC disruptions (eg, restart, may see peak for restocks to travel ban on commercial flights China likely to ease
Inventory “whiplash” - 7-8 weeks
decreased production capacity)
Future capacity 2.3% reduction for YoY global air freight belly Declines at US ports foreshadow for auto, 2-4 weeks for high-tech
Other regions will be facing a Asia-US route from May due to capacity reduction of 14% in declines in US intermodal (rail)
production capacity reductions Inventory hoarding and demand
sea freight alliance revisions March 20204
spikes due to uncoordinated
Customer pressure for
MED Rates likely to continue to actors exacerbate SC
prioritization
increase
Impact on freight will take an extended period of time to correct with slower ramp -up
Logistics capacity returns but faces constraints; near -term price increases
1. Assessment of risk premium to ship raw materials on a number of shipping
routes, data as of 3/13 4. Estimated prior to implementation of EU-US travel ban
2. Frankfurt (FRA) to Shanghi (PVG) used as a proxy 5. Commercial flights from China
3. End of extended Chinese Lunar New Year holiday (2/7-3/13 for BDI, 2/10-3/2 6. Companies such as Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines now starting to fly
for US-China TAC, 2/10-3/9 for other TAC routes) empty passenger aircrafts as dedicated cargo planes
Source: Baidu, WSJ, Bloomberg, Alphaliner, Quartz, TAC index, IATA, Seabury Consulting, A.P. Moller-Maersk Group of Denmark, Agility Logistics McKinsey & Company 27
Current as of March 16, 2020
South-Asia (ex-China)1
Europe
Middle East2
Americas
1. Includes Western Pacific (excl China) and South-East Asia WHO regions
2. Eastern-Mediterranean WHO region
Note: All countries or regions have documented 3rd generation cases
Source: WHO Situation Reports, TomTom traffic index, Baidu QianXi, CDC, IATA, BBC, NYT, Japan Times, NPR, Reuters, press research McKinsey & Company 28
Current as of March 16, 2020
Hubei remains deeply impacted; return Restart has begun, especially for larger companies, Consumer spending in China spend may lag
Late to economic activity tough to foresee until mid Late behind economic restart
despite challenges such as labor shortages and Q2
Q2 Q2 Q1 movement of goods Tourism and some other sectors impacted well
into Q2
Recovery Daily infection Crude case Labor availability Return to work index Air PMI Congestion Earliest Example consumer
milestones rate, per million fatality ratio1 (movement of workers (largest manufacturing pollution manufact. in major cities5 school behavior metrics
to major industrial cities by output in (NO2 level) restarts (anecdotal)
Steady decline in provinces)2 mainland China3)
confirmed cases 32% 14pt Retail passenger car
7 90% sales down 92%
decline in decline Shenzhen 6
New suspected and
0.07 ~4.6% Jiangsu Shenzhen 54%
Beijing4 in Feb 63%
11
confirmed cases 65% Smartphone sales
rates consistent 4 Beijing down 37%
Shandong Shanghai 57% 24% 71% 8
with other provinces 6
decline in 64% Spending on food &
Shanghai drinks down $60B
Quarantine lifted Shenzhen4 67%
7
Zhejiang Chongqing 50% in January and
>4x >4x 7 80%
Public transport Nanjing February
69% 17
resumes 9
Guangdong Wuhan 18% 6% Hotel occupancy
8 Wuhan down 80%
Factory activity 54%
returns to pre-
outbreak levels ~1.1% 03/15/2020
03/16/2020 Started with online lessons
<0.02 Same day 2019 03/03/2020
Same day After March 15th
Hubei China other (avg.) Small businesses face more labor disruption TBD
Source: WHO Situation Reports; National Bureau of Statistics of China; McKinsey Global Institute; OCED Data, Johns Hopkins CSSE, press research, TomTom traffic index, Baidu QianXi, CDC, New York
Times, Reuters, The Economist, Peking University HSBC Business School, Tencent News, Sina news, Beijing Environmental Protection Monitoring Center, Shenzhen Environment Network McKinsey & Company 29
Middle East
Example country Epidemiological Indicators7 Economic/policy indicators
Number of
Number of airlines
Date of Total New cases Peak case countries/ suspending
initial number in last 14 Crude case count territories service to Traffic School
case of cases days 5-day new case trend fatality ratio1 observed?2 restricting travel country3 congestion4 closures
1,365
881 1,075 1,289
4.8%6 87 x9 Country-wide
Iran 02/20 12,729 12,136 N Data N/A
958
349
Rest of region 02/15 1,221 1,108 153 132 1.2% N
40 51
Current phase
CDC travel health notice Traffic congestion5
Stage 1: Small number of cases identified; no sustained local transmission Stage 4: Case growth and stretched
health systems Warning Level 3 03/16/2019
Stage 2: Disease spread and sustained local transmission
Stage 5: New cases drop, activity Alert Level 2 03/16/2020
Stage 3: Government action and shifts in public behavior. Not all affected regions
enter stage 3, but interventions and economic impact signal prolonged recovery resumes None
Source: WHO Situation Reports, TomTom traffic index, Baidu QianXi, CDC, IATA, BBC, NYT, Japan Times, NPR, Reuters, press research
McKinsey & Company
Europe
Example country Epidemiological Indicators7 Economic/policy indicators
Number of
Number of airlines
Date of Total New cases Peak case countries/ suspending
initial number in last 14 Crude case count territories service to Traffic School
case of cases days 5-day new case trend fatality ratio1 observed?2 restricting travel country3 congestion4 closures
2,651 2,547 3,497 x 18 74 Country-wide
Italy 01/31 21,157 20,029 977 6.8%6 N 94
2,313 10
780 829
372 495 591 74
France 01/25 4,469 4,369 2.0% N 55 Country-wide
25
802 693 733 56
Germany 01/28 3,795 3,738 157 271 0.2% N 52 Local
45
1,266 1,522
615 501 825 59
Spain 02/01 5,753 5,708 2.4% N 49 Country-wide
5
2,086 2,222
Rest of region 01/29 9,900 9,754 8771,192 1,125 0.6% N
Current phase
CDC travel health notice Traffic congestion5
Stage 1: Small number of cases identified; no sustained local transmission Stage 4: Case growth and stretched
health systems Warning Level 3 03/16/2019
Stage 2: Disease spread and sustained local transmission
Stage 5: New cases drop, activity Alert Level 2 03/16/2020
Stage 3: Government action and shifts in public behavior. Not all affected regions
enter stage 3, but interventions and economic impact signal prolonged recovery resumes None
Source: WHO Situation Reports, TomTom traffic index, Baidu QianXi, CDC, IATA, BBC, NYT, Japan Times, NPR, Reuters, press research
McKinsey & Company
Americas
Example country Epidemiological Indicators7 Economic/policy indicators
Number of
Number of airlines
Date of Total New cases Peak case countries/ suspending
initial number in last 14 Crude case count territories service to Traffic School
case of cases days 5-day new case trend fatality ratio1 observed?2 restricting travel country3 congestion4 closures
414
224 291 277 59 Local
US 01/23 N
1,678 1,616 05 2.4% 28
16
245
Rest of region 01/27 699 677 105 122 0.7% N
49 16
Current phase
CDC travel health notice Traffic congestion5
Stage 1: Small number of cases identified; no sustained local transmission Stage 4: Case growth and stretched
health systems Warning Level 3 03/16/2019
Stage 2: Disease spread and sustained local transmission
Stage 5: New cases drop, activity Alert Level 2 03/16/2020
Stage 3: Government action and shifts in public behavior. Not all affected regions
enter stage 3, but interventions and economic impact signal prolonged recovery resumes None
Source: WHO Situation Reports, TomTom traffic index, Baidu QianXi, CDC, IATA, BBC, NYT, Japan Times, NPR, Reuters, press research
McKinsey & Company
South-Asia (ex-China)
Example country Epidemiological Indicators7 Economic/policy indicators
Number of
Number of airlines
Date of Total New cases Peak case countries/ suspending
initial number in last 14 Crude case count territories service to Traffic School
case of cases days 5-day new case trend fatality ratio1 observed?2 restricting travel country3 congestion4 closures
242
Prior to x 13 Country-wide
South Korea 8,162 4,426 114 110 107 76 0.9% N 86 Data N/A
01/20
Prior to 54 52 55 41 64 63
Japan 01/20 780 541 2.8% N 48 Country-wide
47
12 13 12
9 59
Singapore 01/24 212 110 6 0% N 42 Not noted
24
206 241
Prior to 87
Rest of region 01/20 1,033 906 61 30 1.1% N
Current phase
CDC travel health notice Traffic congestion5
Stage 1: Small number of cases identified; no sustained local transmission Stage 4: Case growth and stretched
health systems Warning Level 3 03/16/2019
Stage 2: Disease spread and sustained local transmission
Stage 5: New cases drop, activity Alert Level 2 03/16/2020
Stage 3: Government action and shifts in public behavior. Not all affected regions
enter stage 3, but interventions and economic impact signal prolonged recovery resumes None
Source: WHO Situation Reports, TomTom traffic index, Baidu QianXi, CDC, IATA, BBC, NYT, Japan Times, NPR, Reuters, press research
McKinsey & Company
References
COVID-19 Leading indicator dashboard for China
1. Case fatality ratio calculated as (deaths on day X) / (cases on day X). Previous versions of this dashboard calculated CFR = (deaths on day X)/
(cases on day X-7) to account for incubation.
2. Measures movement of population into destinations as of 3/15/2020
3. Wuhan included only for comparison
4. 7-day average (9-Mar to 16-Mar) compared to 2019
5. Car traffic only. Congestion reflects % increase in travel time compared to free-flow conditions
Note: All countries and regions have documented third-generation cases
Region-specific details
1. Case fatality rate calculated as (deaths on day X) / (cases on day X). Dashboards before February 29 calculated CFR as (deaths on day X)/
(cases on day X-7) to account for incubation.
2. Assessment based on observed stoppage in growth of cases and medical community’s opinion validated by external sources
3. Anecdotal reports of airline suspensions based on press searches
4. Based on representative cities: Tokyo, Singapore, Milan, Paris, Berlin, Madrid, Los Angeles
5. 0 new reported cases in US on 3/15 likely a reporting anomaly and not indicative of overall trend
6. Crude case fatality ratio likely to fall as testing becomes more widely available
7. Epidemiological data current as of 3/15 WHO Situation Report
Note: All countries or regions have documented third-generation cases
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