Impact of Economic Changes on the External Trade of India

Dr. Shelendra Kumar*

Abstract

The Indian economy is now fully integrated with the global economy, thanks to economic
reforms initiated in 1990s and continued till today. The magnitude of the effect of any cyclical or
otherwise shock that directly or indirectly affects the Indian economy depends upon the degree
of integration with the affected country or the region. Indian economy sailed safely during the
economic crisis in south east Asian countries in 1997-98 and 2001-02 because the degree of
integration with affected counties was low. However, the brunt of the Sub-prime crisis of US
(2008-09) and Eurozone debt crises (2009-2017) is being felt on Indian economy since 2011-12
when annual growth rate of GNI at constant prices (2011-12=100) declined to 6.9 per cent from
9.8 per cent in 2010-11. Growth further decelerated to 5.1 per cent in 2012-13. During the
subsequent years GNI growth improved at constant prices but has showed a continuous declining
trend since 2011-12 at current prices. Impact of global recession is deeply felt on external trade.
India’s exports grew by 40.5 per cent in dollar terms during 2010-11 and 21.8 per cent during the
following year. Growth rate of exports during 2012-13 was (-)1.8 per cent which improved
slightly in 2013-14(4.7 per cent) but again dipped to (-) 1.3 per cent in 2014-15. Heavy shock
was felt during 2015-16 when growth of exports decreased to (-)15.5 per cent. Almost similar
trend was noticed in the imports.

Trade growth has a strong correlation with world economic growth. The recession of
2007-2008 which started with the subprime crisis in USA soon spread around the globe and all
countries become victims of this global meltdown. The Indian economy, especially the external
sector was severely affected although much less as compared to other countries, it showed much
resilience and was able to survive the crisis due to strong fundamentals of the economy, well-
regulated banking system, less exposure of the financial sector with the global financial market
and close government control over economic policies. More transparency is required, the RBI
must lower the policy rates further to bring down the costs of funds and increase the growth rate.

*
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Agra College Agra

1
Black money and corruption should be controlled. Ethical and moral standards should be
enhanced. To speed up the pace of economic development and to attract foreign direct
investment in Indian economy, there is an urgent need to ensure the protection of investors, their
lives and money through maintaining normalcy, law and order. The protection of rural economy
is essential for India. Entrepreneurship development in both rural and urban areas should be
encouraged and infrastructure be developed along with skill development, only then would India
be able to have all round growth. The foreign trade policy 2015-20 has suggested a number of
measures to enhance external trade, they would go a long way in strengthening our trade along
with the recent bilateral and multilateral agreements signed by India with other countries. To
conclude it can be said that India is presently an important player in the world economy,
however it cannot avoid the present global crisis as the economy becomes more and more
integrated with the world. Thus, to have a robust external trade growth rate, monetary and fiscal
prudence is essential.

2
 Impact of Economic Changes on The External Trade of India

Dr. Shelendra Kumar*

The Indian economy is now fully integrated with the global economy, thanks to economic
reforms initiated in 1990s and continued till today. The magnitude of the effect of any cyclical or
otherwise shock that directly or indirectly affects the Indian economy depends upon the degree
of integration with the affected country or the region. Indian economy sailed safely during the
economic crisis in south east Asian countries in 1997-98 and 2001-02 because the degree of
integration with affected counties was low. However, the brunt of the Sub-prime crisis of US
(2008-09) and Eurozone debt crises (2009-2017) is being felt on Indian economy since 2011-12
when annual growth rate of GNI at constant prices (2011-12=100) declined to 6.9 per cent from
9.8 per cent in 2010-11. Growth further decelerated to 5.1 per cent in 2012-13. During the
subsequent years GNI growth improved at constant prices but has showed a continuous declining
trend since 2011-12 at current prices. Impact of global recession is deeply felt on external trade.
India’s exports grew by 40.5 per cent in dollar terms during 2010-11 and 21.8 per cent during the
following year. Growth rate of exports during 2012-13 was (-)1.8 per cent which improved
slightly in 2013-14(4.7 per cent) but again dipped to (-) 1.3 per cent in 2014-15. Heavy shock
was felt during 2015-16 when growth of exports decreased to (-)15.5 per cent. Almost similar
trend was noticed in the imports. The only consoling factor was the continuous rise in the foreign
exchange reserves which increased from US$251.985 billion in 2008-09 to US$369.955 billion
in 2016-17, primarily due to the increasing inflow of FDI during these years. Low rate of return
in developed countries and further liberalization of FDI policy in India motivated foreign
investors to play safe in India. Another optimistic outlook for India during these years was the
decline in current account deficit since 2012-13. The current account deficit came down to
US$15.296 billion in 2016-17 from US$88.163 billion in 2012-13. It was the result of
continuous decrease in trade balance which came down from (-) US $195.656 billion in 2012-13
to (-) US$112.442 billion in 2016-17. (GoI,2017: Economic Survey 2016-17, Ministry of
Finance). The mixed bag of developments in external sector has an adverse effect on the growth
pattern of Indian economy.

*
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Agra College Agra

3
 In the light of above developments and under the shadow of global economic crises the
present paper “Impact of Recent Economic Changes on The External Trade of India: A Time
Series Analysis”, studies the growth, trend and prospects of India’s external trade, as well as the
impact of recent economic changes. The present paper is divided in four sections viz; section I
-Introduction, section II- Trends in external trade, section III- Recent factors affecting external
trade of India, section IV – Conclusion.

Research Methodology

The research paper is based on secondary data collected from various sources like various
issues of Economic survey, New Delhi, Ministry of Trade and Commerce, Government of India,
RBI Bulletin, Annual Reports of Department of Industry and Promotion etc. To examine the
pattern of external trade and study the effect of recent global and national economic changes
taking place, we have used econometric tools i.e. time series analysis (semi log model), multiple
regression model and linear trend diagrams.

Section -I
Introduction

External trade has come a long way in Indian economy in value terms from the time of
gaining independence in 1947. During the period 1950-1990, external trade of India suffered
from strict bureaucratic and discretionary controls. The total value of merchandise exports
increased from US $ 1269 million in 1950-51 to US$ 18143 million in 1990-91 and further to
US$ 83536 million in 2004-05 to US $ 178751 million in 2009-10. It was during the eighties that
the government started opening up the economy. However, a mounting deficit, coupled with high
inflation (at 13.5 per cent) and the Gulf war led India to a balance of payment crisis in 1991.
During the last two and a half decades India has transformed from a closed economy to a
considerable player in the global market.

Since 1991, India has followed an export promotion strategy which geared up export
from 13970 US $ million in 1988-89 to 22238 US $ million in 1993-94. Many export promotion
policies were started after the reforms nevertheless, India’s export performance has fluctuated
according to global changes. The East Asian Crisis of 1997 had a serious impact on India’s
exports, which became (-)2.33 per cent during that year. The situation for India worsened when

4
its competitor ASEAN countries devalued their currencies amidst the crisis. In 2001-02, India
faced another setback, due to the slowdown of the US economy. Again in 2008-09 the collapse
of large investment banks around the world coupled with high oil prices and rising inflation led
to a global recession which severely affected India’s external trade. Nevertheless, the resilience
shown by our economy was better than most economies of the world. India’s GDP growth rate
fell from 9 per cent in 2007-08 to 7.1 per cent in 2008-09. The impact of this crisis on the export
sector was that export growth which was approximately 24.55 per cent between 2002-03 and
2007-08 come down to (-) 3.5 per cent in 2009-10(Economic Survey,2017).

In the post liberalization period import growth has also increased along with increase in
exports. The import to GDP ratio increased from an average of 7.7 per cent for the 1980s to 10
per cent in the 1990s. During the period 1991-2001 this ratio was around 17.1 per cent
(Economic Survey, 2009-10). Over the last 25 post reform years, India’s external trade has
expanded multifold and seen significant structural shifts in product as well as geographic
composition. The easing of quantitative restrictions as well as significant reduction in tariff
levels across product lines has helped the growth of external trade. However, over the last few
years there has been a marked deceleration in India’s external trade, both exports as well as
imports, primarily on account of subdued global demand and dip in global commodity prices
following the slowing of the world economy. Also, very recently the government’s move of
demonetization and the introduction of GST have further hampered the growth of external trade
although this may be a temporary setback only.

Section -II
Trend of External trade
Globalization leads to the easy spread of economic crisis across the globe. The origins are
different but the aftermaths are felt in all parts of the world. Since the economic reforms Indian
economy has grown at the rate of 8 to 9 per cent, as such, all macroeconomic indicators such as
savings and investments, export and import, foreign exchange reserves, and level of employment
have increased, although, the global economic crisis’s have given setbacks to India’s external
sector but as such there is no intensive atmosphere of recession in the domestic economic
environment. The economic recession that developed around 2006-07 in United States of
America has had a deep impact on all economies of the world both developed and developing.

5
During the last 25 years, India’s exports have increased more than 17 times, from US$ 18143
million in 1990- 91 to US$ 310338 million in 2014-15, and India’s imports have increased 19
times, from US$ 24075 million to US$ 448033 million during the same period (Table 1). India’s
share in global exports has moved up from mere 0.6 per cent in early nineties to 1.7 per cent
currently. Likewise, India’s share in global imports has increased from around 0.6 per cent
during early nineties to 2.4 per cent currently. In the first decade of reform period (1990-91 to
1999-00), India’s exports grew at 8.1 per cent and imports at 8.7 per cent. The real increase in
growth was witnessed in the next decade (2000-01 to 2009-10), when exports grew from US$
44076 million in 2000-01to US$ 178751 million in 2009-10 and imports grew from US$ 49975
million to US$ 288373 in the same period. This trend continued till 2011-12, after which there
has been a steady decline in trade owing to global slowdown. India’s exports are not much
diversified, with top 20 countries accounting for more than 80 per cent of total exports. During
1991-92, USA was the largest export destination (16.4 per cent), followed by Japan (9.2 per
cent), Russia (9.2 per cent) and some European countries. Today, top 20 export destinations for
India account for 67 per cent of total exports, reflecting greater diversification. A major change
in the direction of India’s exports during the last two decades has been the increasing share of
developing countries and decreasing share of developed economies. Between 1990-91 and 2014-
15, the share of Asia has increased from 34 per cent to 49 per cent and that of Africa from 3 per
cent to 11 per cent. On the other hand, share of Europe has come down from 41 per cent to 19
per cent during this period (Pushpalata Singh,2014). The composition of exports has also
changed with time. There is a definite shift in India’s exports from primary, agricultural and
traditional exports to manufactured and technology based items.

As regards the imports, India’s imports have also continuously increased, they were US$
24075 million in 1990-91 and increased to US$ 111517 million in 2004-05. In 2008-09 the
imports again increased at a high speed reaching US$ 303696 million however there was a
decline in 2009-10 due to global meltdown and it dipped to US$ 288373 million. It regained in
2010-11 and stood at US$ 369769 million. Again, there was a slight dip to US$ 448033 million
in 2014 -15 as against US$ 450200 million in 2013-14. Petroleum has always remained the most
important item of import in India’s trade in the pre-as well as post reform period. It had a share
of 27 per cent in total imports in 1991-92, which currently stands at around 21.8 per cent in
2015-16. Gold is another important import item after crude oil (Economic Survey, 2016).

6
 Table 1: Trends in India’s Exports and Imports
US$ Million
Year Exports Imports Trade GDP
Balance
1999-00 36715 49738 -13023 466882.88

2000-01 44076 49975 -5899 476620.62

2001-02 43827 51413 -7587 493971.77

2002-03 52719 61412 -8693 524085.31

2003-04 63843 78149 -14307 618368.58

2004-05 83536 111517 -27981 721589.31

2005-06 103091 149166 -46075 834216.58

2006-07 126414 185735 -59321 948374.83

2007-08 163132 251654 -88522 1238690.05

2008-09 185295 303696 -118401 1224113.02

2009-10 178751 288373 -109621 1365391.52

2010-11 251136 369769 -118633 1708428.99

2011-12 305964 489319 -183355 1880041.32

2012-13 300401 490737 -190336 1827607.61

2013-14 314405 450200 -135795 1856719.12

2014-15 310338 448033 -137695 2035380.09

2015-16 262290 381007 -118717 2089881.32

2016-17 276280 384319 -108039 2263792.49

Source: Economic Survey,2017.

7
 Table 1 gives the data of external trade. The trends of exports and imports are being
presented as continuous growth model (semi log model i.e. log-lin model) (Gujarati, 2008) in the
following manner. As per time series data on India’s exports and imports during 1999-00 to
2016-17(Table 1), the value in the model can be put as

Exportst  y0  1  r 
t

log  Exportst   β1  β 2 t
log(Exportst )  10.49395  0.139058 t
R  0.956 R 2  0.915 R 2  0.910 r  37.73
For Imports

Importst  y0  1  r 
t

log  Importst   β1  β2 t
log(Importst )  10.70414  0.152987 t
R  0.938 R2  0.880 R 2  0.873 r  42.22

The value of r (growth rate) for exports is equal to 37.73 per cent and for imports 42.22
per cent. We found that there is no serially correlation, no heteroscedastic, residual is normally
distributed and no auto correlation in residual. Thus, all result shows that this model is fitted. The
above results confirm theoretic expectations.
The impact of economic reforms is visible from the changing structure of India’s external
trade in terms of trend and diversity of market and products. Figure 1 presents the trend of
merchandise exports and imports since 1991to 2017. During the 1990s, Indian exports performed
well in certain years, and not so well in some other years. However, the global economic

8
slowdown and the events of September 11, 2001 led to a steep fall in the rate of growth of
exports and since then it has increased but the rate of increase has been different according to the
global scenario. For 2017, global trade is expected to grow at 3.6 per cent with such low growth
prospects, recovery in India’s exports becomes extremely challenging. India should strive for
greater competitiveness, policy reforms and transparency to withstand the recession onslaught.

Section-III
Impact of Recent Economic Changes
During the last one year a number of economic and political happenings have disturbed
the globe. Economic crisis in Euro Area, Brexit and uprisings in the Middle-east have all had an
effect on sensitive commodity prices and general uncertainty has affected business environment
world over and recovery pace in both developed and emerging markets. The crisis has produced
a wide-ranging yet differentiated impact which includes economic slowdown and contraction in
world trade. India is expected to grow at 7.6 per cent in 2018, rising to 7.8 per cent in 2019-20
(GOI, Ministry of Commerce, 2015-20). Various ongoing reforms are expected to reduce
domestic supply hindrances and increase productivity. The “Make in India” initiative can support
India’s manufacturing sector, backed by boosting domestic demand and further regulatory
reforms. A benefit of ‘demonetization’ in the long run may ease liquidity in the banking system,
leading to lower lending rates and boost economic activity (World Bank, Global Economic
Prospects, January 2017). According to IMF, India’s GDP will continue to expand at the fastest
pace among major economies, with growth forecast at 7.6 per cent in 2016-17 (Open World
Bank Data). According to latest WTO reports, world trade will expand by just 1.7 per cent in
2016. The forecast for 2017 has also been revised, with trade now expected to grow between 1.8
per cent and 3.1 per cent, down from 3.6 per cent previously. Global GDP growth is 2.2 per cent
in 2016, this is the slowest pace of trade and output growth since the financial crisis of 2009.

Another important global event of 2016 was the Brexit, however it is assumed that the
impact of the exit of United Kingdom (UK) from European Union (EU) world be minimal on
India and the country is well prepared to deal with such events. The intensity of the impact
would depend on the measures required to tackle uncertainty in trade such as impact on
preferential access to EU markets, the need for recalibration of the Broad-based Bilateral Trade

9
and Investment Agreement and change in import-export tariff barriers, once the process of
separation of UK from EU is completed.
In general terms, external trade has a positive impact on the growth of GDP in India.
Table 1 reveals that trade has continuously increased since 1999-00 despite some serious
fluctuations. An econometric model is being put forward to quantitatively prove the relationship
between GDP growth and exports and imports.

log(GDP)  β1  β2 log(Exports)  β3 log(Import s)

log(GDP)  4.869  1.126 log(Exports)  0.351 log(Imports)
R  0.988 R 2  0.979 R 2  0.976

The log linear OLS model shows that GDP will certainly grow with the growth in
exports. Table 2 shows estimates of global growth compared with growth rates in India.
According to data in 2000 global GDP was 4.39 per cent and India’s was 3.84 per cent. In 2001
there was sudden decrease in global GDP to 1.94 per cent on one hand but on the other hand the
Indian economy could absorb the global slowdown and its GDP increased to 4.82 per cent. After
recession in 2008 global GDP decreased to 1.82 per cent and India’s GDP dipped from 9.8 per
cent in 2007 to 3.82 per cent in 2008. Further the world economy was worst hit in 2009 when the
global growth become negative (-1.73 per cent), very surprisingly India was able to maintain 8.5
per cent growth rate of GDP due to strong macroeconomic mechanism and it’s to ability to
absorb external shocks. Since then the world GDP has remained between 2.4 to 3.5 per cent
whereas the growth rate of GDP in India has remained between 6 to 8 per cent. In 2016 India’s
GDP was 7.1 per cent, this was in sharp contrast to general prediction that demonetization with
have strong negative effect on overall GDP growth in India.
Table 2: Trend of Growth Rates of Global GDP and Trade
and India's GDP and Trade (%)
 
Global Economy Indian Economy
Year GDP Export Import GDP Export Import
2000 4.399 11.916 12.514 3.841 18.154 4.590
2001 1.941 0.452 0.359 4.824 4.31 2.944
2002 2.144 2.799 2.765 3.804 21.085 11.997

10
  
Global Economy Indian Economy
Year GDP Export Import GDP Export Import
2003 2.915 4.339 5.260 7.86 9.582 13.884
2004 4.453 10.156 10.708 7.923 27.176 22.195
2005 3.846 6.804 8.131 9.285 26.074 32.588
2006 4.326 8.566 9.097 9.264 20.355 21.480
2007 4.256 6.577 7.650 9.801 5.926 10.193
2008 1.819 2.697 3.097 3.891 14.597 22.714
2009 -1.735 10.159 -11.886 8.48 -4.685 -2.136
2010 4.327 11.594 12.325 10.26 19.616 15.609
2011 3.156 6.588 6.885 6.638 15.575 21.059
2012 2.493 2.896 2.556 5.456 6.805 6.022
2013 2.601 2.988 2.534 6.386 7.792 -8.146
2014 2.831 3.614 3.261 7.505 1.779 0.874
2015 2.734 3.386 2.473 8.01 -5.314 -5.882
2016 2.438 2.693 2.493 7.107 4.512 2.307
Source: https://data.worldbank.org

Likewise, when we compare the growth rates of global exports and imports with India’s,
we find that Indian exports registered negative growth in 2009 (-4.68 per cent) following global
meltdown, however, the exports very quickly bounced back to 19.62 per cent in 2010, same
pattern seen in imports. Again, there was a setback in 2015 due to lack of global demand for
Indian exports which were (-)5.31 per cent in 2015. Looking at the resilience of the Indian

11
economy with strong banking setup, macroeconomic stability, limited exposure to global
financial markets, the prospects of India’s external trade seem bright and it would be able to bear
global crisis in future also.
Demonetization
Besides the global events affecting India’s external trade, there have been recent
economic changes within the country which are likely to affect trade in the long run. One such
event was demonetization.
Demonetization was announced on 8 November 2016 by the Prime Minister Sh.
Narendra Modi and still its advantages and disadvantages are being debated. Since Rs500 and
Rs1000 notes made up some 86% of the total currency in circulation in India, the move was very
bold, sudden and in fact a big blow to the entire population. However, PM Modi’s bold and
visionary step was attempted to combat black economy, counterfeit currency, and cutting
financial support to terrorism and move towards a less cash economy. Nevertheless, economists
predict that it’s negative impact on economic activity and GDP would be temporary and the
long-term benefits like increase in less cash activities would be more permanent in nature.
Definitely there is a short-term setback. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has reduced the GDP
growth rate forecast for 2016-17 from 7.6% to 7.1% and the Asian Development Bank from
7.4% to 7%, however it is expected that growth would recover in 2017-2018.

Demonetization technically is a liquidity shock; a sudden stop in terms of currency

availability. It creates a situation where lack of currency blocks consumption, investment,
production, employment etc. It is surprising that on the onset of the Global Financial Crisis,
developed economies used monetary policy to stimulate growth, such as negative interest rate
policies and “helicopter drops” of money. However, India has given a whole new dimension to
unconventional monetary policy, with the difference that whereas advanced economies have
focused on expanding the money supply, India’s demonetization has reduced it. This can be
termed as a “reverse helicopter drops” or a “helicopter hoover”. (Economic Survey, GoI,2017).

GST

Yet another important economic reform adopted in 2017 has been the introduction of
GST on 1st July 2017 by the government of India. A very brief study of the impact of GST on
external trade is being attempted as still there is a lot of ambiguity as regards the implementation

12
of GST. Nevertheless, it can be said that in the long run the impact of this major tax reform on
external trade would be positive. The current indirect tax regime in India is complex as there are
multiple taxes, elaborate compliance obligations and tax cascading. GST is a destination based
tax on consumption of goods or services. The policy of the Government of India is to export the
goods and/or services not the taxes out of India. Thus, exports will become cheaper
making Indian products or services more competitive in the international markets (Alok
Patania,2017).

The Taxation Laws (Amendment) Act, 2017 provides that IGST on imports will be levied
at value of imported articles as determined under the Customs Act plus duty of customs and any
other sum chargeable in addition to customs duty (excluding GST and GST Cess). As per the
provisions of IGST law, export of goods and/or services are to be treated as “zero rated supplies”
and a registered taxable person exporting goods or services shall be eligible to claim refund
according to set rules and regulations.

Section-IV
Conclusion
An analysis of the various international and national happenings in recent years reveals
that India has fared much better than most of the world economies due to its ability to absorb
external shocks. Nevertheless, the global economic scenario and trade indicators remain
uncertain and point towards weak and asymmetric growth prospects across regions. The threats
are manifold covering political, economic and social dimensions. India must take suitable
measures to be stable in the global unstable environment and improve it’s regulatory framework,
ease of doing business, transparency, infrastructure, banking network and competitiveness in the
world market. There are several threats and challenges around the world and increasing
protectionist attitude of advanced economies like U.S. and U.K. However, India can take suitable
measures as outlined in the Foreign Trade Policy 2015-20 along with improving its domestic
trade environment, strong monetary and fiscal policy, increasing digitization of the trade process,
working on building the Brand and value promotion.

13
 In order to increase external trade and it’s share in global trade, the present Foreign Trade
Policy (2015-2020) of Government of India focusses on market and product strategy and
strengthening of the complete trade eco system. Through the policy the government has tried to
mainstream States, Union Territories and various departments of Government of India in the
process of international trade. Two new schemes, have been introduced namely;
 Merchandise Exports from India Scheme (MEIS) for export of specified goods to specified
markets and
 Service Exports from India Scheme (SEIS) for increasing exports of notified services.
Some of the new initiatives adopted in Foreign Trade Policy (2015-20) are
1. E-Commerce Exports
2. Status Holders Recognition: All exporters of goods, services and technology having an
importer-exporter code (IEC) number shall be eligible for recognition as a Status
Holder.
3. Deemed Exports: this scheme is for encouraging import substitution.
4. Trade Facilitation: Trade facilitation is a priority of the Government for cutting down
transition cost and time and thereby rendering Indian exports more competitive.
5. e-Trade: e-Trade is an initiative for creating an electronic single window for trade
6. Ease of Doing Business: The present policy has reduced number of mandatory
documents required for exports and imports to 3 each for export and import.

These and other measures would go a long way in strengthening our external trade along
with the recent bilateral and multilateral agreements signed by India with other countries. To
conclude it can be said that India is presently an important player in the world economy,
however it cannot avoid the present global crisis as the economy becomes more and more
integrated with the world. Thus, to have a robust external trade growth rate, monetary and fiscal
prudence is essential. More transparency is required, the RBI must lower the policy rates further
to bring down the costs of funds and increase the growth rate. Black money and corruption
should be controlled. Ethical and moral standards should be enhanced. To speed up the pace of
economic development and to attract foreign direct investment there is an urgent need to ensure
the protection of investors, their lives and money through maintaining normalcy, law and order.
The protection of rural economy is essential for India. Entrepreneurship development in both

14
rural and urban areas should be encouraged and infrastructure be developed along with skill
development, only then would India be able to have all round growth and be able to withstand
global fluctuations with greater ease and continue on its growth track.

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