Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Future Mapping Bill Phillips
Future Mapping Bill Phillips
net/publication/243462769
Future-mapping: A practical way to map out the future and achieve what you
want
CITATIONS READS
3 4,359
1 author:
Bill Phillips
Bill Phillips Consulting Ltd
2 PUBLICATIONS 10 CITATIONS
SEE PROFILE
Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects:
Research into consulting approaches based on unconsciously operating metaphors of company cultures View project
Stemmed from discovery of a then (1988) new way of thinking about and envisioning and planning ideal futures View project
All content following this page was uploaded by Bill Phillips on 22 August 2016.
Anthony J. Mento, Patrick Martinelli, Raymond M. Jones, (1999),"Mind mapping in executive education: applications and
outcomes", Journal of Management Development, Vol. 18 Iss 4 pp. 390-416 http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/02621719910265577
Steven H. Appelbaum, Sally Habashy, Jean-Luc Malo, Hisham Shafiq, (2012),"Back to the future: revisiting
Kotter's 1996 change model", Journal of Management Development, Vol. 31 Iss 8 pp. 764-782 http://
dx.doi.org/10.1108/02621711211253231
Access to this document was granted through an Emerald subscription provided by emerald-srm:193732 []
For Authors
If you would like to write for this, or any other Emerald publication, then please use our Emerald for Authors service
information about how to choose which publication to write for and submission guidelines are available for all. Please
visit www.emeraldinsight.com/authors for more information.
About Emerald www.emeraldinsight.com
Emerald is a global publisher linking research and practice to the benefit of society. The company manages a portfolio of
more than 290 journals and over 2,350 books and book series volumes, as well as providing an extensive range of online
products and additional customer resources and services.
Emerald is both COUNTER 4 and TRANSFER compliant. The organization is a partner of the Committee on Publication
Ethics (COPE) and also works with Portico and the LOCKSS initiative for digital archive preservation.
Describes future-mapping, an What would it be like if you could take a leap the moment when you realized you had
innovative process for cre- into the future, stop, and look around, notic- achieved it. As you remember now the feel-
ative strategic thinking and ing that what you see, hear and feel tells you ings you had of satisfaction, elation, pleasure,
decision making. The idea this is real? Naturally, you would be able to or maybe just relief, remember also what you
consists of imagining already remember the leap, and all that had occurred or others said about your success. Perhaps
living in an ideal, successful in between to make your future happen. that little voice in your head congratulated
Downloaded by Manchester Metropolitan University At 03:01 03 November 2015 (PT)
future, describing it in detail In addition, how would it be if the future you, or yelled how it had always known you
as if it were real, and then you leapt into were one that you would could do it. What did you see around you?
“remembering”, step-by- describe as ideal or very successful? And if, Who else was there? What were the visible
step, how it was arrived at. as you remember the major steps and events signs of your achievement? The more you
Not only is the future ideal which took you there, you were to map them think back, the more you can realize that
mapped out systematically, out on a progress chart, this chart might your success may be described in some detail.
but the steps to making it serve, when you had finished, as something You will also be aware that, looking back
happen are likewise mapped like a route map to an ideal outcome. This from your success, you can remember the
out. Future-mapping has been way of thinking, which I first formulated in milestone events, the turning points which
developed through direct 1989, is now called “future-mapping”. brought you to where you are and perhaps
application in a wide variety This paper will describe the future-map- times when things seemed impossible. Yet,
of organizations since 1989. ping process in terms of what it is, how it problems were overcome, and new things
Provides three brief case works, its benefits over other processes, its learned. Even difficult people or relation-
examples and an example of value in teams – an example, conclusions: its ships were changed, thus moving things
its power in teamworking. operating assumptions, and brief case exam- towards your final outcome. You might even
Outlines how to carry out ples showing its versatility. have done things which, in some time past,
future-mapping at each you had truly believed could never happen to
stage, with explanations of you. In this way, you can recall exactly what
techniques, and background So what is future-mapping? steps had been needed to get you to success.
research. Defines some of the This process of looking back at success is
benefits of this way of think- Future mapping is a powerful process for
illustrated by the simple steps and faces
ing and decision making and creating a compelling vision, deciding how to
model in Figure 1.
describes its key operating achieve it and generating a motivation to act.
If you were to slide this kind of thinking
assumptions. Because it engages the normal mechanisms
forward into the future and apply it to a suc-
of mind by which we all get to know what we
cess that you have not yet had, then, as men-
want, it can work for everyone, is sensitive to
tioned in the introduction, you would be
organizational culture and style and helps
future-mapping. This is represented by the
people to notice immediate opportunities to
modified model in Figure 2.
take action.
It can range from being highly creative and
generative, to being detailed, tightly struc-
tured and specific. Future-mapping will work
How does future-mapping work?
for short-, medium- and long-term thinking Future-mapping works by basing yourself in
and planning. Short term can be as short as a the future at the hour or date of your ideal
couple of hours, and long term can mean outcome. This successful outcome, described
many years. Applications can range from in detail, comprises the vision of the future.
long-term corporate and business planning, Looking back from the future-base allows
to agreeing the outcome of a meeting as it similar milestones and turning points to be
begins. It helps creative thinking and the identified, as in reviewing remembered
sharing of ideas, and can build a strong sense success.
of common purpose among those who use it Apart from the similarity in Figures 1 and
together in teams or work groups, etc. 2 of starting with perceptions of success and
Career Development
International An example from most people’s experience looking back, there is another key factor to
1/2 [1996] 10–18 will illustrate the process. In recalling an note. Both in the remembered state and the
© MCB University Press event or a time in your life when you future-mapping state, the steps to success,
[ISSN 1362-0436] experienced success, you can probably recall the starting point and the successful
[ 10 ]
Bill Phillips outcome are all taking place in the mind. Visioning rather than forecasting
Future-mapping: a practical Both processes are imaginary in nature There have been occasions during future-
way to map out the future and with no real-world, tangible elements at all. mapping seminars or work with clients when
achieve what you want
It is important to recognize this, especially the idea of imagining a future time and the
Career Development when comparing future-mapping with other, events leading up to it have caused concern
International
1/2 [1996] 10–18 more chronological ways of planning or for some people. Some have considered it
vision building. Our thought processes can unrealistic, or were afraid that the
and do operate in any direction, forwards or unexpected, or things outside their control,
backwards, often whether we want them to might interfere. Some of these very real and
or not. ln the case of future-mapping, think- legitimate concerns have led to refinements
ing backwards has some advantages over in the design and use of future-mapping.
thinking forwards. These will be discussed There is, however, an important principle to
later. consider at this stage.
There seem to be two broad ways in which
we think or plan ahead:
Figure 1
Downloaded by Manchester Metropolitan University At 03:01 03 November 2015 (PT)
Future success
ness. Both forecasting and vision building, no
matter how creative, complex, or based on
past experience and accurate data, remain
figments of the imagination until the first
action and result dictate what must come
next. Forecasting, or predicting, is no more or
less real, or realistic, than visioning or
dreaming. They are just different ways of
preparing to act.
Current
anticipation
What Is the future-mapping process?
There are three distinct phases in future-
Imagination mapping:
[ 11 ]
Bill Phillips 1 creating a compelling ideal future as if it heading from Step 2, “How our customers see
Future-mapping: a practical were happening already; us”:
way to map out the future and 2 mapping out milestone events and achieve- “We have a customer panel that is meeting
achieve what you want once a month.”
ments that took you there;
Career Development 3 managing accomplishment of the “Our customers are tending to bring their
International
outcomes, beginning back in the present. friends now.”
1/2 [1996] 10–18
“We have had several letters again this
These three phases, although always remain-
month praising our back-up service.”
ing in the same sequence, are emphasized or
“Our customers feel comfortable suggest-
further subdivided into various steps, accord-
ing improvements; they are full of good
ing to the context or content to which you
ideas.”
wish to apply future-mapping. These steps
“It is amazing how supportive some
are outlined below.
customers have been when we have had a
Phase 1: creating a compelling ideal future problem.”
This first phase is designed to help you define Where possible, turning the verbs in your
statements into the present continuous form,
Downloaded by Manchester Metropolitan University At 03:01 03 November 2015 (PT)
ing to mind these milestone or critical events chart developed in a light engineering com-
helps to frame or map-out your pathways to pany planning to install a computerized pro-
success by identifying markers along the way. ject management and production scheduling
In some circumstances, you may identify system.
milestone events which fit more easily with Phase 3: managing accomplishment back
particular achievements listed, rather than in the present
with a heading. This is perfectly legitimate, This third phase begins with preparing for
and depends on the level of detail appropriate action and for managing it. Although future-
in your context. Generating milestones for mapping has a strong tendency to generate
each of the achievements listed gives much spontaneous action, some groups have failed
more data for planning complex situations. to take this phase seriously, and have been
There are two important things to notice disappointed at their subsequent progress.
about these milestone descriptions: Step 8. Document the vision in a way that
1 They are spoken and written in the past allows it to be kept in people’s minds easily.
tense. Use pictures, charts, diagrams or written
2 They are expressed as “I, we or they, did materials if they help. One group produced a
this or that”. company newspaper detailing its achieve-
They may also be worded as “so and so hap- ments in news form. The more easily you can
pened”. This helps to keep them as specific revisit and review your map of the future, the
statements of past actions taken, and in the more continually motivating it will be, and
same type of language we normally use when the easier it will seem to track your
describing past actions for real. progress[13,14].
Step 6. Agree or assess and write down Step 9. Appoint a project leader or manager,
when each milestone action or event took and give them authority to remind others of
place, and if significant, who was involved. their deadlines and agreements to take
One powerful effect in the future-mapping action. In a work or organization setting, this
process happens at this step. In “remember- step can make the difference between making
ing” your success, the timing of these mile- rapid, recognizable progress, and people
stones becomes obvious. It is as if a kind of becoming immersed in the day-to-day activity
anxiety or “cognitive dissonance”[11,12] is set that helps them not get to what they agreed to
up when we generate or choose a vision of a do, and which often makes the simplest
very different future. This anxiety is usually action a major hurdle to overcome. Even the
Table I
A simple progress or Gantt chart
Dates
Milestones January February March April
Consulted staff xxx
Agreed new plan x
Purchased equipment x
Trained staff xxxxxxxxxxx xxx
Installed equipment xxx
Met interim target x
[ 13 ]
Bill Phillips simplest of progress monitoring techniques than problems. Most of us are more moti-
Future-mapping: a practical will have a valuable effect. vated by thoughts of achievement rather
way to map out the future and Step 10. Draw up a timetable of events and than of difficulties.
achieve what you want actions developed from the milestones identi- • It is success-centred, side-stepping common
Career Development fied in step 5 and beyond. Timetabling mile- feelings such as fear of failure and seeing
International only hurdles that need to be overcome. It
stones has already been suggested in step 7.
1/2 [1996] 10–18
This step 10 timetable is likely to include begins by generating a sense of achieve-
much more detailed dates and actions, and is ment.
the stage at which the small steps to accom- • It is flexible and versatile, being well-suited
plish each milestone are agreed and written to a very wide range of needs to plan or
into people’s diaries. make decisions about the future from just
If future-mapping is related to project eval- hours to years ahead.
uation and review technique (PERT) project • Future-mapping releases creativity, espe-
planning techniques, developing headings, cially when several people work on it
listing achievements and timetabling mile- together. The very process of imagining
stones are together akin to activity listing, achievements neutralizes the kind of nega-
Downloaded by Manchester Metropolitan University At 03:01 03 November 2015 (PT)
critical path and crude network analysis and tive thinking that tends normally to inter-
preparing Gantt charts[15]. fere.
In more detailed planning, identifying • It builds compelling visions due to the
milestones for each achievement listed quantity and nature of descriptive informa-
(rather than in the broader terms related to tion generated. The seeing, hearing and
headings) may be necessary, with correspond- feeling dimensions are the most powerful
ing increases in the progress chart listings. part of this.
For each event or action, ask the following • It lends itself to involving people and moti-
question (and act on the answer!): “What vating them to act. Future-mapping can be
specifically prevents us from doing this right cascaded across and through an organiza-
now?” tion, enabling groups, teams and individu-
Step 11. Revisit or review your vision at als to develop their own part of the vision
intervals. Doing this formally allows your and implementation plan. A strong sense of
outcomes to be kept in view. It allows you to common purpose develops in future-map-
be reminded of what you are aiming for, and ping groups, partly because individuals
to notice the need to update or modify your tend to vizualize ideal relationships and
vision to keep it current as results dictate. mutual support as parameters of success.
The ease with which you can update your As they describe these relationships and
visions is an important feature of future- feelings together in the present tense, indi-
mapping. One characteristic of successful viduals come to realize they are already
people is their readiness to be flexible and rehearsing what they want.
alter their plans in the light of new informa- • It helps people spot opportunities to take
tion or experience[16]. action, often almost immediately. This
tends to happen at the point where individ-
Summary uals or groups begin to accept specific roles
The above steps provide a way to describe the and responsibilities. Having future-mapped
key elements of the three-phased future-map- ideal outcomes and considered first steps, it
ping process. Since its first formal written often becomes clear that there is nothing
description in 1991[17], experience has shown preventing immediate action and people
that people applying future-mapping have not become motivated to achieve early results.
• Future-mapping can be very broad and
kept to any one formal structure, but have
general and some groups have found that
varied it according to what they have needed
completion of phase 1 is sufficient. If fol-
to do. When compared with more predictive
lowed through to completion of phase 3
forms of forward thinking, future-mapping
with a wide range of detailed information
has a number of benefits.
in phases 1 and 2 then future-mapping can
be used meticulously to support complex
decisions.
What benefits does future-mapping
• It is easy and quick to update. At any time
offer?
during implementation, phases 1 and 2 can
Future-mapping can bring with it a number be reviewed in the light of new experience
of distinct advantages overcoming many of or unexpected developments. In fact, one
the usual blockages that we suffer when need- way of following through implementation
ing to think and plan ahead: of the various steps to success is to future-
• It is solution-centred, generating accurate map next steps as specific projects are com-
specification of desired outcomes rather pleted or turning points reached. This is
[ 14 ]
Bill Phillips one way in which actual experience and I have found that people at work tend to find
Future-mapping: a practical results guide progress in bringing about it relatively easy to agree on how they want
way to map out the future and change. things to be, compared with their more
achieve what you want strongly held (and defended) differing beliefs
• The future-mapping process is relatively
Career Development easy to learn, and is not reliant on jargon or about how to get there. Certainty, safety, secu-
International rity, support, good relationships, trust and
1/2 [1996] 10–18 technical planning expertise. Apart from its
name, there is no specialized language recognition are all states of wellbeing that
needed in future-mapping. When develop- people wish for in common, and they often
ing a future-based vision, people will nor- tend to emerge in some way in listing
mally reflect personal and organizational achievements. This is reinforced by
values and beliefs in their impression of Kotter[18] in his writings on leadership,
success. This is one way in which the where he says that, “Such feelings touch us
process remains both organizationally and deeply and elicit a powerful response”.
culturally acceptable. Kotter goes on to say that good leaders
always articulate the organization’s vision in
a manner which stresses the values of the
Downloaded by Manchester Metropolitan University At 03:01 03 November 2015 (PT)
because you have “tuned” your senses to affected. Experience has shown that people
something you were unaware of until now. have been drawn together very strongly by
The more sensory information you build future-mapping ideal working elationships. It
into your vision of the future, the stronger the seems that most of us have an underlying
tuning effect will be. In future-mapping desire for wellbeing in all we do. Future-
terms, perhaps a product idea or a chance to mapping in phase 1 can lift people right out of
invest which would normally be overlooked their everyday behaviours, and encourage
or ignored will become significant. The most them to state their ideals openly. Discovering
pleasing point is that you do not have to that on this “higher plane” they have so much
remember to notice these opportunities. The more in common allows people to agree more
process is automatic and unconscious. Cer- easily.
tain things or actions will appear to be a It may be worth considering the potential
“good idea”, and you may or may not notice at power of this in negotiation.
the time that this thing or action will take you
one step nearer to your vision.
One further valuable side effect which Conclusions
occurs through these two processes of vision-
ing a particular outcome and becoming tuned There can be very little that is thought of or
to it is that people often become aware that created that is brand new. The processes and
there is nothing preventing them from underlying assumptions of future-mapping
achieving it immediately. This is one way in are no exception. Indeed, one of its strengths
which items or actions planned for will is that the cognitive mechanisms is relies on
appear to happen almost spontaneously. Peo- are part of everyone’s repertiore, even if we
ple will have begun to notice opportunities to are often unaware that we are using them.
take action immediately. What is different about future-mapping is the
way in which our use of those mechanisms it
Barriers overcome organized for the purpose of deciding what
Steps to success are remembered very differ- we want to lie ahead, and how to get ourselves
ently from steps to a failure. We appear to there.
remember different elements of our history One operating assumption essential to
according to whether we think we achieved being able to plan convincingly for an ideal
or failed. When we recall steps to success, we future is that it is possible to achieve suc-
seem most readily to recall how we took cesses which perhaps at present do not seem
them, often with pleasure or pride at how attainable. One helpful way to think about
clever we were to influence events or other this issue, is to consider something which
people. When we fail, we tend to remember you once achieved, which, at an earlier time,
most readily why – why it was not possible, or you had genuinely believed to be impossible
how someone’s motives blocked us – or for you. That something might have been a
because we misjudged, or there was not particular job, perhaps a qualification or a
enough money available at the time. relationship. The achievement is evidence
It is interesting to note that when we try to that the earlier belief, no matter how strong
plan ahead conventionally, we tend to con- or convincing, was not correct.
sider why an idea or decision will or will not Another vital assumption is that what you
work. When we write reports to justify our do now will largely affect your future out-
plans, there is a tendency to explain the bene- comes. This may seem obvious, but it is very
fits of doing this or that, i.e. why it should be difficult to motivate yourself to act unless this
[ 16 ]
Bill Phillips cause-effect relationship is quite clear in your Optimizing HR team resources
Future-mapping: a practical mind. Once phase 1 is complete, and you have A key issue for a newly formed regional per-
way to map out the future and a description of your ideal outcomes, phase 2 sonnel team of a large national UK organiza-
achieve what you want tion was how to work together effectively and
in which you map out the milestone events
Career Development and actions takes care of making this cause- maximize resources. Doing this would hope-
International fully give a sorely needed raise in profile.
1/2 [1996] 10–18
effect link. The key importance of the above
two operating assumptions is that, without Using future-mapping, the team built a
them, you may not even be prepared to begin vision for one year ahead. This included set-
future-mapping. ting milestones and entering dates into
Future-mapping has been tried and tested diaries to make sure the agreed actions were
in a variety of sectors and situations. The taken. Three months later, one member of the
author and his colleagues have developed and team reported that the first two meetings
refined it through their consulting work with agreed had not taken place. She felt disap-
clients of International Training Service Ltd pointed that they had not invested more effort
(ITS) over the last five years. Some of that in planning and carrying through their inten-
tions.
Downloaded by Manchester Metropolitan University At 03:01 03 November 2015 (PT)
[ 18 ]
This article has been cited by:
1. Anand Prakash, Sanjay Kumar Jha, Rajendra Prasad Mohanty. 2012. Scenario planning for service quality: a Monte Carlo
simulation study. Journal of Strategy and Management 5:3, 331-352. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
2. Rozhan Othman. 2008. Enhancing the effectiveness of the balanced scorecard with scenario planning. International Journal
of Productivity and Performance Management 57:3, 259-266. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
Downloaded by Manchester Metropolitan University At 03:01 03 November 2015 (PT)