H2 Mathematics - Probability

PROBABILITY
SUMMARY
UNIVERSAL PROPERTIES:

P ( A  B) = P ( A ) + P ( B) − P ( A  B)
P ( A  B  C ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) +P ( C ) − P ( A  B ) − P ( A  C ) − P ( B  C ) + P ( A  B  C )
P ( A  B)
Conditional Probability: P ( A | B ) =
P ( B)

MUTUALLY E XCLUSIVE E VENTS INDEPENDENT E VENTS: E XHAUSTIVE E VENTS:

P ( A  B) = 0 P ( A  B) = P ( A )  P ( B) If A and B are exhaustive events, their
union must cover the entire sample
A B P (A | B) = P (A) space, i.e. P ( A  B ) = 1 .
A B

PROBABILITY DIAGRAM

Probability of A , P(A) =
Probability of A ' , P(A ') =

Probability of B , P(B) =
A A'
Probability of B ' , P(B') =
B w x
Probability of A  B , P(A  B) = B' y z
Probability of A ' B ' , P(A ' B') =

Probability of B given that A happens, P ( B | A ) =

Probability of B ' given that A happens, P ( B' | A ) =
Probability of B given that A ' happens, P ( B | A ') =
Probability of B ' given that A ' happens, P ( B | A ') =

TREE DIAGRAM

Probability of A , P(A) =
Probability of A ' , P(A ') =
Probability of B , P(B) =
B
Probability of B ' , P(B') = b

a A
Probability of A  B , P(A  B) =
Probability of A ' B ' , P(A ' B') = B'
c B
Probability of B given that A happens, P ( B | A ) =
A'
Probability of B ' given that A happens, P ( B' | A ) =
Probability of B given that A ' happens, P ( B | A ') = B'
Probability of B ' given that A ' happens, P ( B | A ') =

If A and B are independent events, then b = c .

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H2 Mathematics - Probability
IDENTIFYING CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY FROM TABLES
Boy Girls
Wear glasses 21 11
Do not wear glasses 9 18
Let W be event when student selected wearing glasses.
Let B be event when student selected is a boy.
Find
(i) P ( W | B ) (ii) P ( B' | W ' ) (iii) P ( B | W )

7 2 21
Answers: (i) (ii) (iii)
10 3 32

Durian Guava Pineapple

Likes 47 44 23
Dislikes 19 20 53
Let D be the subject on Durian.
Let G be the subject on Guava.
Let P be the subject on Pineapple.
Let L be the person liking the subject.
(i) P (( D  G ) | L) (ii) P ( G ' | ( L  P )) (iii) P ((G  L ') | D ') (iv) P (( D ' L ') | ( L  P ) ')

91 123 117 73
Answers: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv)
114 167 140 183
HCI/2010/P2/Q10(a)
A public opinion poll surveyed a sample of 1000 voters. The table below shows the number of males and females supporting Party A,
Party B and Party C.
Party A Party B Party C
Male 200 130 70
Female 250 300 50
One of the voters is chosen at random. Events A , C and M are defined as follows:
A: The voter chosen supports Party A.
C: The voter chosen supports Party C.
M : The voter chosen is a male.
Find
(i) P( A | M ) ,
(ii) P ( M ' C ' ) .
Determine whether A and M are independent.

1 11
Answers: (i) (ii)
2 20

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H2 Mathematics - Probability
IDENTIFYING CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY FROM VENN DIAGRAMS
Find

(i) P ( A | B ) (ii) P ( A ' | B) (iii) P ( B ' | A ' ) (iv) P ( B' | A )
A B

29 7 40 24
Answers: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv)
36 36 47 53
Find
(i) P ( C ' | A ') (ii) P ( A ' C | B )
(iii) P ( A  B' | C ' ) (iv) P ( C ' | B  A ) 
A
B

33 5 53 5
Answers: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv)
47 43 73 9
PROBLEMS INVOLVING INEQUALITY
Events A and B are such that Events A and B are such that Events A and B are such that P( A) = 0.7
P( A) = 0.47 and P( B) = 0.7 . P( A) = 0.74 and P( B) = 0.45 . and P( B) = 0.8 .
Find an inequality for P( A  B) . Find an inequality for P( A  B) . Find an inequality for P( A  B) .

Answer: 0.17  P( A  B)  0.47 Answer: 0.19  P( A  B)  0.45 Answer: 0.5  P( A  B)  0.7

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H2 Mathematics - Probability
The events A and B are independent. It is given that
P( A) = 0.6 and P( A ' B ') = 0.2 .
(i) Find P( B) .
The events B and C are mutually exclusive and P(C ) = 0.25 ,
form an equality for event P( A  C ) .
The events A and B are independent. It is given that
P( A) = 0.7 and P( A ' B ') = 0.12 .
(i) Find P( B) .
The events B and C are mutually exclusive and P(C ) = 0.18 ,
form an equality for event P( A  C ) .

Answer: (i) 0.5 ; 0.05  P( A  C )  0.25 Answer: (i) 0.6 ; 0.06  P( A  C )  0.18
SOLVING PROBLEMS USING FORMULA
VJC/2013/II/5
2 1
For events A and B , it is given that P( A) = and P( B) = .
3 2
(i) State an inequality satisfied by P( A  B) . [2]
It is given further that A and B are independent. Find
(ii) P( A  B) , [1]
(iii) P( A '  B) . [2]

1 1 1 2
Answers: (i) P ( A  B )  (ii) (iii)
6 2 3 3
N2004/II/23
A and B are events such that P ( A  B ) = 0.9 , P ( A  B ) = 0.2 and P ( A | B ) = 0.8 . Find P ( A ) and P ( B ' ) . [4]

Answers: 0.85; 0.75; not independent.

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H2 Mathematics - Probability
DHS/2015/II/Q9
For independent events A and B , it is given that P( A  B) = 0.05 and P ( A  B ) = 0.55 .
(i) Find P ( A) and P ( B ) if P ( A )  P ( B ) . [4]
For a third event C , P ( C ) = 0.5 and P ( A ' B ' | C ) = 0.95 .
(ii) Find P ( A  B  C ) . [3]
(iii) State, with reason, whether the events A and C are mutually exclusive. [1]

Answers: (i) 0.1; 0.5 (ii) 0.025 (iii) Not mutually exclusive.
N2010/P2/Q7
For events A and B it is given that P ( A) = 0.7 , P ( B ) = 0.6 and P ( A | B ') = 0.8 . Find
(i) P ( A  B ') , [2]
(ii) P ( A  B) , [2]
(iii) P ( B ' | A) . [2]
For a third event C , it is given that P ( C ) = 0.5 and that A and C are independent.
(iv) Find P ( A ' C ) . [2]
(v) Hence state an inequality satisfied by P ( A ' B  C ) . [1]

Answers: (i) 0.32 (ii) 0.92 (iii) 0.457 (iv) 0.15 (v) P ( A ' B  C )  0.15

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H2 Mathematics - Probability
PRACTICE 1
1 AJC/II/2012/7(a)
Events A and B are such that P( A) = 0.7 and P( B) = 0.8 . Show that
P( A  B)  0.5 [2]
(i) If P( A '  B) = 0.85 , find P ( A B ) . State, with a reason, whether or not A and B are independent events. [3]
(ii) What is the relationship between event A and event B if P( A  B) = 0.5 ? [1]

Answers: (i) 11/16, Not Independent (ii) If P( A  B) = 0.5 , then P( A  B) = 1 , event A & event B are exhaustive.
2 PJC/2015/II/Q11
7 2 7
For events A and B , it is given that P ( B ) = , P ( B | A) = and P ( A | B ') = .
27 9 10
(i) State, with reason, whether A and B are independent. [1]
(ii) Find P ( A  B ) . [3]
(iii) Find P ( A  B ) . [3]
1
For a third event C , it is given that P ( B  C ) = and that A and C are mutually exclusive.
18
(iv) Find the range of P ( C ) . [2]
2 7 7 4 1 5
Answers: (i) Since P ( B | A) =  P ( B) = , A and B are not independent. (ii) (iii) (iv)  P (C ) 
9 27 9 27 18 18
3 TPJC/2015/II/Q5
Two fair dice are thrown simultaneously. Events A and B are defined as follows.
A: at least one six appears,
B: the sum of two scores is ten.
Find
(i) P ( A | B ) , [2]
(ii) P ( A | B ') . [2]
35
For a third event C , it is given that P ( B ' C ) = and that B and C are independent.
36
(iii) Find the exact value of P ( C ) . [3]
Answers: (i) 2/3 (ii)3/11 (iii) 2/3
4 RI/2015/II/Q6
1 2 11
For events A and B , it is given that P ( A) = , P ( B ) = and P ( A | B ') = .
2 5 30
(i) Find P ( A  B ) . [3]
3
For a third event C , it is given that P ( C ) = . If A and C are mutually exclusive and B and C are independent, find
10
(ii) P(B C) , [1]
(iii) P ( A ' B  C ') . [2]
7 3
Answers: (i) (ii) (iii) 0
25 25
5 CJC/2013/II/6
3 7 11
For events A and B , it is given that P ( B ) = , P ( A  B) = and P ( A ' B) = .
5 8 36
Find
(i) P ( A) , [2]
(ii) P ( B ' | A) . [2]
4
A third event C , has P (C ) = and that A and C are independent.
7
(iii) Find P ( A ' C ) . [2]

41 99 31
Answers: (i) (ii) (iii)
72 205 126
PROBABILITY OF A SEQUENCE
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H2 Mathematics - Probability
A bag contains 5 red balls, 7 blue balls and 4 green balls. 3 balls are taken at random from the bag. Find the probability that all three
balls are of different colours if
(i) the balls are taken without replacement,
(ii) the balls are taken with replacement.

Answers: (i)1/4 (ii) 105/512

A pack of cards contains 10 Hearts, 5 Spades and 11 Clubs. Three cards are drawn at random from the pack. Find the probability that
all three cards are from different suit if
(i) the cards are drawn without replacement.
(ii) the cards are drawn with replacement.

Answers: (i)11/52 (ii) 825/4394

A bag contains 5 red balls, 7 blue balls and 4 green balls. 4 balls are taken at random from the bag without replacement. Find the
probability that exactly two balls are of the same colours.

Answers: 1/2
Simon is either early, on time or late for school. The probabilities that he is early, on time or late for school are 0.7, 0.25 and 0.05
respectively. Find the probability that, out of 5 days of school,
(i) he is late for 2 days,
(ii) he is on time for 1 day and early for 2 days.

Answers: (i) 0.0214 (ii) 0.00919

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H2 Mathematics - Probability
IDENTIFYING CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY FROM TREE DIAGRAMS
Find
(i) P ( B | A ) (ii) P ( B ' | A ') B
A
(iii) P ( A | B ) (iv) P ( A ' | B ') B’

B
A’

B’

4 7 32 49
Answers: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv)
7 12 67 73
An influenza virus is spreading through a city. A vaccination is available to protect against the virus. If a person has had the
vaccination, the probability of catching the virus is 0.1; without the vaccination, the probability is 0.3. The probability of a randomly
selected person catching the virus is 0.22.
(a) Find the percentage of the population that has been vaccinated. [3]
(b) A randomly chosen person catches the virus. Find the probability that this person has been vaccinated [2]

2
Answers: (a) 40% (b)
11
2013 YJC P2 Q7
43
I have a choice of two routes to get to school. The probability that I am punctual for school is and the probability that I choose
50
3 27
the first route is . If I get to school punctually, the probability that the first route is chosen is . Find the probability that I get to
5 43
school punctually if
(i) I choose the first route, [2]
(ii) I choose the second route. [2]

Answers: (i) 9 (ii) 4

10 5

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H2 Mathematics - Probability
2008 SAJC P2 Q8
A student has requested for a testimonial to apply for a job. She estimates that there is an 80% chance of getting the job if she receives
an excellent testimonial, a 40% chance if she receives a moderately good testimonial and a 10% chance if she receives a fair testimonial.
She further estimates that the probabilities that the testimonial will be excellent, moderate or fair are 0.7, 0.2 and 0.1 respectively.

(i) Draw a tree diagram to illustrate the information and calculate the exact probability of the students getting the job. [2]
(ii) Given that she receives the job offer, what is the exact probability that she received an excellent testimonial? [2]
(iii) Given that she did not receive a moderate testimonial, what is the exact probability that she did not receive a job offer? [2]

Answers: Q14 (i) 0.65 (ii) 56/65 (iii) 0.2875

2008 RJC P2 Q10
1 1
The probability that a hockey team wins any match is and the probability that it loses any match is . Three points are awarded
2 6
for a win, one point for a draw and no point for a defeat. The team plays four matches and the outcome of each match is independent
of the other matches.

1
(i) Show that the probability that the team has exactly one draw and exactly one defeat is . [1]
6
Find the probability that the team
(ii) wins the first match and goes on to win exactly one other match, [3]
(iii) wins exactly one match, given that it obtains four points. [4]

Answers: (ii) 3/16 (ii) 9/11

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H2 Mathematics - Probability
2016 JJC P2 Q6
The table below shows the number of male and female students studying Chemistry, Physics and Biology at a private school.
Chemistry Physics Biology
Male 200 130 70
Female 250 300 50
One of the students is chosen at random. Events C , B and M are defined as follows:
C : The student chosen is studying Chemistry.
B : The student chosen is studying Biology.
M : The student chosen is a male.
Find
(i) P (C | M ) , [1]
(ii) P(M C) , [1]
(iii) P ( M ' B ' ) . [1]
Determine whether C and M are independent. [2]
It is given that 20% of Chemistry students, 30% of Physics students and 5% of Biology students are international students.
(iv) One of the students selected at random is an international student. What is the probability that this student studies
Chemistry? [2]
(v) Three students are chosen at random. Find the probability that there is exactly one international student who studies
Physics. [2]

1 13 11
Answers: (i) (ii) (iii) C and M are not independent. (iv) 0.4 (v) 0.294
2 20 20

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H2 Mathematics - Probability
PROBLEMS INVOLVING PNC
2016 IJC P2 Q7
A class of twenty four pupils consists of 11 girls and 13 boys. To form the class committee, four of the pupils are chosen at random as
“Chairperson”, “Vice Chairperson”, “Treasurer” and “Secretary”.
(i) Find the probability that the committee will consist of at least one girl and at least one boy. [3]
(ii) Find the probability that the “Treasurer” and “Secretary” are both girls. [3]

Answers: (i) 0.902 (ii) 0.199

2016 VJC P2 Q7
Box A contains 10 red, 8 blue and 7 green balls. Box B contains 2 white and 3 black balls. All the balls are indistinguishable except
for their colours. Three balls are taken from Box A and two balls are taken from Box B , at random and without replacement.

Mr Wong guesses that there are at least 1 red ball and exactly 2 black balls taken, while Mr Tan guesses that all the balls taken are of
different colours.
(i) Show that the probability that Mr Wong is correct is 0.241, correct to 3 significant figures. [3]
(ii) Find the probability that Mr Tan is correct. [2]
(iii) Find the probability that Mr Wong is correct, given that Mr Tan is wrong. [3]

Answers: (i) 0.241 (ii) 0.146 (iii) 0.282

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H2 Mathematics - Probability
PRACTICE 2
1 IJC/2013/II/5
Diabetes is present in 27% of the elderly population. In a health screening exercise, a quick test for diabetes is used, but the test is
not totally reliable. It has 0.98 probability of giving a positive result when an elderly has diabetes, and 0.04 probability of giving a
positive result when an elderly does not have diabetes. A randomly chosen elderly is given the test. Find the probability that
(i) the result of the test is positive, [2]
(ii) the elderly has diabetes given that the result of the test is positive. [2]

Answers: (i) 0.2938 (ii) 0.901

2 PJC/2013/II/7
In Haha College, 70% of the students watch the show Jogging man and 60% of the students watch the show Voice of me. 40% of
those who do not watch the show Voice of me watch the show Jogging man. Find the probability that a student chosen at random
from the college
(i) watches both shows, [3]
(ii) watches exactly one show, [2]
(iii) watches the show Voice of me given that the student does not watch the show Jogging man. [2]

State, with a reason, whether the events ‘watches Jogging man’ and ‘watches Voice of me’ are independent. [1]

Answers: (i)0.54 (ii) 0.22 (iii) 0.2; since P ( A) = 0.7  P ( A | B ' ) = 0.4 , the two events are not independent.
3 TJC/2013/II/10
(a) In a box, there are 12 marbles of which 5 are red, 4 are black and 3 are white. 4 marbles are taken at random from the box,
each marble being replaced before the next one is taken. Find the probability that
(i) at least one marble of each colour is obtained, [2]
(ii) at least one marble is white. [2]
(b) Everyday, Gerald has a choice of 2 routes to get to school. The probability that he gets to school without being delayed is
43 . The probability that he chooses the first route is 3 . If he gets to school without being delayed, the probability that
50 5
the first route is chosen is 27 . Find the probability that he gets to school without being delayed if
43
(i) he chooses the first route, [3]
(ii) he chooses the second route. [3]

Answers: (a)(i) 5 (ii) 175 (b)(i) 9 (ii) 4

12 256 10 5
4 DH/2013/II/7
A box contains 5 red balls, 5 green balls and 5 blue balls. The balls are identical in size. Balls of the same colour are each printed
with a distinct number from 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Two balls are randomly drawn without replacement. Find the probability that
(i) at least 1 red ball is drawn, [2]
(ii) the sum of the numbers on the balls drawn is at least 9, [2]
(iii) the sum of the numbers on the balls drawn is at least 9 given that at least 1 red ball is drawn. [3]
State, with a reason, whether the events ‘the sum of the numbers on the balls drawn is at least 9’ and ‘at least 1 red ball is drawn’
are independent. [1]
Answers: (i) 4/7 (ii) 4/35 (iii) 7/60; not independent
5 HCI/2013/II/10
A bag contains 15 tokens that are indistinguishable apart from their colours. 2 of the tokens are blue and the rest are either red
or green. Participants are required to draw the tokens randomly, one at a time, from the bag without replacement.
1
(i) Given that the probability that a participant draws 2 red tokens on the first 2 draws is , show that there are 3 red
35
tokens in the bag. [3]
(ii) Find the probability that a participant draws a red or green token on the second draw. [2]
Events A and B are defined as follows.
A : A participant draws his/her second red token on the third draw.
B : A participant draws a blue token on the second draw.
(iii) Find P ( A  B ) . [2]
(iv) Determine if A and B are independent events. [1]

248
Answers: (ii) 0.867; (iii) or 0.182 (iv) A and B are not independent events.
1365
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H2 Mathematics - Probability
6 JJC/2013/II/9
A bag contains 4 black balls and 6 white balls. Three balls are drawn from the bag at random, one by one. If a black ball is drawn,
it is replaced in the bag. If a white ball is drawn, it is not replaced and 2 extra black balls are added to the bag.
1
(i) Show that the probability that all balls drawn are white is . [2]
11
(ii) Given that at least one of the balls drawn is black, find the probability that all balls drawn are black. [3]
A fourth ball is further drawn from the bag at random.
(iii) Find the probability that the third white ball appears on this fourth draw. [3]

1 44 266
Answers: (i) (ii) (iii) or 0.147
11 625 1815
7 SAJC/2013/II/7
A teacher conducted a survey on a large number of students to determine the choice of colours for painting the school hall from
3 colour options of white, green and blue. Of the students surveyed, 40% were boys and 60% were girls. Of the boys, 50% chose
white, 20% chose green and the rest chose blue. Of the girls, 25% chose white, 45% chose green and the rest chose blue.
Draw a probability tree diagram to illustrate the above information. [1]
(i) One student is randomly selected. Find the probability that the student chose white. [1]
(ii) Two students are randomly selected. Find the probability that the two students are of the same gender or chose different
colours (or both). [3]
(iii) Three girls are randomly selected. Find the probability that exactly 1 girl chose white, given that none of them chose blue.
[3]
Answers: (i) 7/20 (ii) 1067/1250 (iii) 1215/2744
8 MI/2015/II/Q11
(a) A school delegation comprises of 10 male and 10 female student players. The breakdown of the respective sports and
gender for the delegation is summarised below.
Male Female
Basketball 3 3
Volleyball 4 1
Netball 0 4
Badminton 2 1
Tennis 1 1
4 players are randomly chosen from the delegation to form a committee.
(i) Find the probability that the committee includes the 2 tennis players. [2]
(ii) The committee is to have 2 males and 2 females. Find the probability that the 2 males are chosen from the same
sport and the 2 females do not play the sport as the males. [3]
(iii) Find the probability that 3 female players are chosen given that exactly 1 netball player is chosen. [3]
(b) At a meeting, student players from volleyball, netball and badminton are arranged to sit around a round table. Find the
possible number of seating arrangements if,
(i) players in the same sport must sit together, [2]
(ii) male and female players, regardless of sport, must sit in alternate positions. [2]

Answers: 0.0316, 0.0650, 0.268, 34560, 86400

9 NYJC/2015/II/Q8
In a survey of 140 students who had recently migrated with their families to Singapore, students were asked to indicate the birth
places of both their parents. The results are displayed in the accompanying table.
Mother’s birth place
UK Europe Asia
Father’s birth UK 45 16 4
place Europe 7 12 1
Asia 8 2 45
(i) Find the probability that a randomly selected student from this group has both parents born in the UK. [2]
(ii) Find the probability that a student randomly selected from those with mothers born in the UK, has a father born in Asia.
[3]
(iii) Find the probability that a student randomly chosen from this group have a parent born in either UK or Europe. [3]
Answers: (i) 9/28 (ii) 2/15 (iii) 19/28

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H2 Mathematics - Probability
PROBLEMS WITH INFINITE OUTCOMES
Ava and Barry play a game containing one green marble and two red marbles. Each player intron randomly selects a marble from the
bag, notes its colour and replaces it. Ava wins the game if she selects a green marble. Barry wins the game if he selects a red marble.
Ava starts the game.
a) Find the probability that Ava wins on her first turn.
b) Find the probability that Barry wins on his first turn.
c) Find the probability that Ava wins in one of her first three turns.
d) Find the probability that Ava eventually wins.

1 4 103 3
Answers: (a) (b) (c) (d)
3 9 243 7
AJC/2015/II/Q9
Three red balls and two blue balls are placed in a bag. All the balls are indistinguishable except for their colours.
Mr Red and Mr Blue take turns to draw a ball from the bag at random with replacement. The first player to draw the ball whose colour
matches his name wins the game and the game stops immediately.
If Mr Red draws first, find the probability that
(i) Mr Red wins the game at his third draw. [2]
(ii) Mr Blue wins the game at his n th draw. [2]
(iii) Mr Red wins the game given that the winner wins the game at his third draw. [2]
(iv) Mr Blue wins the game. [2]

n−1
4  6  15 4
Answers: (i) 0.03456 (ii)   (iii) (iv)
25  25  19 19
PRACTICE 3
1 JJC/2008/II/Q9
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H2 Mathematics - Probability
In a game played by two people A and B, each player is given three cards with three different animal pictures printed on them.
The players flash their cards simultaneously to indicate one of the three animals, ‘elephant’, ‘cat’ and ‘mouse’. ‘Elephant’ defeats
‘cat’, ‘cat’ defeats ‘mouse’ and ‘mouse’ defeats ‘elephant’. If the animals are the same, the game is a draw. At each game, A
indicates ‘elephant’, ‘cat’ and ‘mouse’ with probabilities of 0.3, 0.3 and 0.4 respectively, while the corresponding probabilities for B
are 0.2, 0.5 and 0.3. The game continues until a winner is found.

Find the probability that

(i) a game ends in a draw [2]
(ii) A is the winner in the first game; [2]
(iii) B is the winner in the first game given that the first game does not end in a draw; [3]
(iv) B will be the winner in the contest. [2]
Answers: (i) 0.330 (ii) 0.320 (iii) 0.522 (iv) 0.522
2 VJC/2015/II/Q7
A game is to be played between two players, A and B . A bag contains 5 balls each with A ’s name and 8 balls each with B ’s
name. Starting from A , the players will take turn to pick 3 balls randomly in a single draw from the bag, note down the names and
return all 3 balls to the bag. Assuming that the balls are identical in size, the winner is the first player to get 3 balls of the player’s
name in a single draw.

(i) Find the probability that A wins the game. [4]

(ii) Find the probability that A wins on A ’s first draw given that A wins the game. [3]
Suppose A eventually wins the game on A ’s 4th turn. Let (a1, a2, a3, a4) denote A ’s draw sequence where ai denote the number
of balls with A ’s name picked by A on A ’s ith turn.
Find the total number of possible draw sequence for A. [2]
Answers: (i) 0.156 (ii) 0.224 27
3 HCI/2015/II/Q6
(a) Let A and B be events such that P ( A ' B ) = 0.13 , P ( A ' B ') = 0.38 and P ( A | B ) = 0.675 .
(i) Find P ( A  B ) . [3]
(ii) Determine whether A and B are independent. [1]

(b) Two players, C and D , compete in a match. The probability that C wins the first set is p . For each set after the first, the
conditional probability that any player wins the set, given that the player won the preceding set, is p . Each set is won either
by player C or D . If there is no limit to the number of sets played, and a match is won only when a player wins two
1 − p + p2
consecutive sets, show that the probability that C wins the match is . [3]
2− p
Answers: (a)(i) 0.27 (ii) A and B are not independent
4 IJC/2017/II/Q6
Seven red counters and two blue counters are placed in a bag. All the counters are indistinguishable except for their colours. Clark
and Kara take turns to draw a counter
from the bag at random with replacement. The first player to draw a blue counter wins the game and the game ends immediately.
If Clark draws first, find the probability that
(i) Clark wins the game at his third draw, [2]
(ii) Kara wins the game. [3]
7
Answers: (i)0.0813 (ii)
16
5 RJC/2008/II
1 1
The probability that a hockey team wins any match is and the probability that it loses any match is . Three points are
2 6
awarded for a win, one point for a draw and no point for a defeat. The team plays four matches and the outcome of each match is
independent of the other matches.
1
(i) Show that the probability that the team has exactly one draw and exactly one defeat is .
6
Find the probability that the team
(ii) wins the first match and goes on to win exactly one other match,
(iii) wins exactly one match, given that it obtains four points.
Answers: (ii) 3/16 (iii) 9/11

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