Idea Cellular

Template
(All data is Millions INR, except per share information)
(Red for assumptions, Blue for actual data, Black for calculations)
Date Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Year 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 A 2014 A 2015 E
Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
2016 E 2017 E 2018 E 2019 E
Idea Cellular
Income Statement
(All data is Millions INR, except per share information)
(Red for assumptions, Blue for actual data, Black for calculations)
Date Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13
Year 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 A

Total Sales 0.2074 124,788 155,032 195,412 224,577

Network Related Expenses 0.2011 63,879 86,172 108,543 121,841

Gross Profit 60,908 68,861 86,869 102,736

Employee Cost 0.1991 6,346 8,056 9,499 11,225

Other Expenses 0.1924 17,695 22,897 26,446 31,465
Other Expenses than COGS 0.1942 24,041 30,952 35,945 42,690
EBITDA 36,867 37,908 50,923 60,045

Depreciation / Amortization 0.2566 18,123 23,973 29,813 34,778

EBIT 18,744 13,935 21,110 25,268

Interest Expense 0.0276 6,906 3,966 10,557 9,495

EBT before exceptional 11,838 9,969 10,553 15,773

Exceptional Items -1 941 0 0 0

EBT 12,779 9,969 10,553 15,773

Total Provision for Tax 0.35 1,042 982 3,323 5,664

PAT 11,737 8,987 7,230 10,109

EPS
Basic 0.1362 3.56 2.72 2.18 3.05

Number of Shares
Basic 0% 3,300 3,303 3,309 3,314
Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
2014 A 2015 E 2016 E 2017 E 2018 E 2019 E

265,189 320,185 386,587 466,760 563,559 680,433

- - - - -
132,962 159,705 191,826 230,409 276,752 332,416
132,228 160,481 194,761 236,350 286,807 348,016
- - - - -
13,121 15,734 18,867 22,623 27,128 32,530
35,770 42,651 50,857 60,642 72,309 86,220
48,891 58,385 69,724 83,265 99,437 118,750
83,337 102,096 125,037 153,085 187,370 229,266

45,194 56,793 71,368 89,684 112,700 141,623

38,143 45,303 53,669 63,402 74,670 87,643

7,700 7,912 8,131 8,355 8,585 8,822

30,443 37,391 45,538 55,047 66,085 78,821
- - - - -
0 - - - - -
30,443 37,391 45,538 55,047 66,085 78,821
- - - - -
10,765 13,221 16,102 19,465 23,368 27,871
19,678 24,169 29,436 35,582 42,717 50,950

5.93 7.27 8.84 10.67 12.79 15.23

3,320 3,325 3,330 3,335 3,340 3,345

Year 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 A 2014 A 2015 E

Total Sales 21% 124,788 155,032 195,412 224,577 265,189 298,769

Network Related Expenses 20% 63,879 86,172 108,543 121,841 132,962 159,705
Employee Cost 20% 6,346 8,056 9,499 11,225 13,121 15,734
Other Expenses 19% 17,695 22,897 26,446 31,465 35,770 42,651

Commonsie Analysis (% of Sales)

Network Related Expenses 51% 56% 56% 54% 50% 53%
Employee Cost 5.1% 5.2% 4.9% 5.0% 4.9% 5%
Other Expenses 14.2% 14.8% 13.5% 14.0% 13.5% 14%

Effective Tax Rate (Provision for Tax / EBT-Be 8% 10% 31% 36% 35% 35%
2016 E 2017 E 2018 E 2019 E

336,404 379,291 428,257 484,276

191,826 230,409 276,752 332,416

18,867 22,623 27,128 32,530
50,857 60,642 72,309 86,220

57% 61% 65% 69%

6% 6% 6% 7%
15% 16% 17% 18%

35% 35% 35% 35%

Year 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 A

Equity Share Capital 32998 33033 33089 33143

Preference Share Capital 19 19 19 19
Employee Stock Option 445 0 0 0
Reserves 80261 89947 97395 109890
Total Shareholders' Equity 113724 122999 130502 143053

Secured Loans 0 73166 79962 87041 91630

Long Term provisions 1 7569 27890 25456 31002
Total Liabilities and Sharehodlers' Equity 194459 230851 242999 265685

Gross Block - Fixed Assets 270585 314232 383125 433071

Less: Accumulated Depreciation/ 88907 89322 113187 141471
Net Block 181679 224910 269938 291600
Capital Work-in-Progress 5526 36006 6799 8811
Total Fixed Assets 187205 260916 276736 300411

Investments 11304 10200 976 10280

Inventories 536 659 926 726

Sundry Debtors 4656 5557 8227 9601
Cash and Bank Balance 2900 4577 1521 1429
Total Current Assets 8092 10794 10673 11756

Loans and Advances 28538 20207 37966 41333

Total CA, Loans & Advances 36630 31001 48640 53090

Current Liabilities 38447 69489 81360 93705

Provisions 2233 1777 1993 4391
Total Current Liabilities 40680 71266 83353 98096

Net Current Assets (CA - CL = Working Capi (4050) (40265) (34713) (45006)

Total Assets 194459 230851 242999 265685

Checksum 0 0 0 0

Balace Sheet Ratios

Inventory Days Outstanding 2.53 2.66 2.47

Days Sales Outstanding (Average collection period) 12.02 12.87 14.49
Payable Days 228.59 253.63 262.22
2014 A 2015 E 2016 E 2017 E 2018 E 2019 E

33196 33246 33296 33346 33395 33445

19 19 19 19 19 19
0 0 0 0 0 0
132054 156223 185660 221242 263959 314909
165270 189488 218974 254606 297373 348373

88758 93150 97759 102597 107673 113001

98997
353025 282639 316734 357203 405047 461375

472879
176860
296020
114194
410214

2155

683
8006
1881
10570

42635
53206

105686
6863
112549

(59344)

353025

1.93
12.12
273.68
Idea Cellular
Year 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 A 2014 A 2015 E

Net Profit after Tax 9539 8987 7230 10109 19678 24,169
Adjustments for:
Depreciation 0 18123 21453 24357 29590 38855 47017
Amortisation of Intangible Assets 0 2026 2521 5456 5188 6339 8431
Interest and Financing Charges 0 6814 5162 10482 10157 9552 10393
Dividend Income and Profit on sale ### (886) (473) (292) (667) (1280) 920210
Bad Debts/Advances written off 0 576 446 597 0 1152 1371
Provision for Bad & Doubtful Debts ### 283 150 36 830 (115) #NUM!
Employee Stock Option Cost 0 81 232 174 0 43 37
Provision for Gratuity, Leave Enca 0 2167 957 3174 670 176 94
Provision for Deferred Tax ### (953) 24 149 4907 5454 #NUM!
Provision for Current Tax (Net of M### 757 5310 Err:502
Liabilities/Provisions no longer req 0 (941) (559) (451) (415) (749) -708
Interest Income 0 (1599) (645) (135) (194) (988) -876
(Profit)/Loss on sale of Fixed Asset### 43 248 12 53 (205) #NUM!
Tax paid (including TDS) (Net) 0 (2347) (3327) (4141) (4110) (6384) -8198
Operating Profit before working capita 32925 35176 46649 56875 76838 #NUM!
Adjustments for working capital
(Increase)/Decrease in Trade Receivabl (1288) 1132 (3267) (2204) 469
(Increase)/Decrease in Inventories (4) (123) (266) 199 43
(Increase)/Decrease in Other Current a (1380) 219 (3) (4) (1890)
(Increase)/Decrease in Long Term and (4556) 9204 (13291) (372) 3696
Increase/(Decrease) in Trade Payables, (276) 5323 8360 8476 3036
Change in Working Capital (7504) 15756 (8468) 6096 5354
Net cash from operating activities 25421 50932 38181 62971 82192

Purchase of Fixed assets & Intangible a (41474) (85473) (47327) (34987) (36985)
Payment towards Spectrum and Licenses (213) (31436)
Proceeds from Sale of Fixed Assets 10036 271 59 221 536
Profit on Sale of Current Investments, 1906 1610 417 870 2242
Net Cash from/(used in) investing activi (29532) (83592) (46851) (34109) (65642)

Proceeds from issue of Equity Share 23 138 237 248 263

Proceeds from Long Term Borrowing 14531 38804 38323 40154 4465
Repayment of Long Term Borrowing (15310) (13920) (30345) (37833) (22020)
Proceeds from Short Term Borrowin 0 29737 42522 10547 6906
Repayment of Short Term Borrowing (15000) (12078) (43150) (23237) (5287)
Payment of Dividend, including Dividend Tax (250) (1306)
Payment of Interest and Financing C (8255) (9229) (11200) (9283) (7682)
Net Cash from/ (used in) Financing activ (24010) 33453 (3614) (19653) (24661)

Net Increase/(Decrease) in Cash and (28121) 793 (12284) 9208 (8111)

BOP - Cash 30864 13940 14734 2450 11658
EOP - Cash 2900 14734 2450 11658 3543

Decrease in Cash and Cash Equivalents 157 0 (4)

Investment in units of Liquid Mutual F 0 10200 976 10280 2155

Margin Money with Banks - notes to BS 0 44 47 51 493

Cash in the Balance Sheet-Calculated 2900 4577 1521 1429 1881

Checksum 0 0 0 0 0
 2016 E 2017 E 2018 E 2019 E

29,436 35,582 42,717 50,950

56892 68843 83303 100800

11213 14913 19835 26380
11309 12305 13389 14568
-661360162 ### ### ###
1630 1939 2306 2743
#NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM!
31 27 23 20
50 27 14 8
#NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM!
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
-668 -631 -596 -563
-776 -688 -610 -541
#NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM!
-10529 -13521 -17364 -22300
#NUM! #NUM! #NUM! #NUM!
PAT+Dep-Change in WC
PAT+Dep-Change in [CA - CL]
PAT + Dep + Change [CL-CA]
Date Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Year 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 A 2014 A 2015 E

Mobility Services 0.204 124,398 154,047 194,198 221,916 261,750 292,847

International Long Dis -0.219 12,731 1,759 2,595 3,831 4,735 5,852
Passive Infrastructure 0.271 9,516 12,111 20,501 23,553 24,845 26,211
Elimination 0.046 (21,858) (12,886) (21,883) (24,723) (26,141) (26,141)
Total Revenue 124,788 155,032 195,412 224,577 265,189 298,769
12.7%
Method 1 - Total

Revenue 124,788 155,032 195,412 224,577 265,189 304,967

Y-o-Y growth 24.2% 26.0% 14.9% 18.1% 15%

Method 2 - Total

Revenue 124,788 155,032 195,412 224,577 265,189 320,185

4 Year CAGR 20.7% 20.7%

Method 3 - Total

Mobility Services 124,398 154,047 194,198 221,916 261,750 315,250

International Long Distance 12,731 1,759 2,595 3,831 4,735 6,586
Passive Infrastructure 9,516 12,111 20,501 23,553 24,845 31,581

Segmentwise CAGR
Mobility Services 4yr CAGR 20.4% 315250
International Long Distance 3yr CAGR 39.1% 6586
Passive Infrastructure 4yr CAGR 27.1% 31581

Method 4 - Total

Mobility Segment

Method 1-Mobility
Mobility Revenue 124,398 154,047 194,198 221,916 261,750 292,847
ARPU (Rs) 167 161 160 167 173 179
Growth in ARPU -3.6% -0.6% 4.4% 3.6% 4%

Subscribers (mn) 745 957 1214 1329 1513 1634

Growth in Subscribers 28.4% 26.9% 9.5% 13.9% 8%

Method 2-Mobility

Minutes of Usage (bn) 247.5 362.6 453.1 532.1 587.8 646.4

Growth % 46.5% 25.0% 17.4% 10.5% 10%
Gross Rev per min (paise) 53.0 42.4 42.6 41.5 44.5 45.4
Growth % -20.0% 0.5% -2.6% 7.2% 2%

Revenue 131175 153742 193021 220822 261571 293397

International Long Distance

ILD Revenue 12,731 1,759 2,595 3,831 4,735 5851.7

Growth % -86.2% 47.5% 47.6% 23.6% 24%

Passive Infrastructure

PI Revenue 9,516 12,111 20,501 23,553 24,845 26211.2

Growth % 27.3% 69.3% 14.9% 5.5% 6%
Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
2016 E 2017 E 2018 E 2019 E

327,660 367,320 412,574 464,294

7,232 8,938 11,046 13,651
27,653 29,174 30,778 32,471
(26,141) (26,141) (26,141) (26,141)
336,404 379,291 428,257 484,276
12.6% 12.7% 12.9% 13.1%

350,713 403,319 463,817 533,390

15% 15% 15% 15%

386,587 466,760 563,559 680,433

20.7% 20.7% 20.7% 20.7%

379,685 457,290 550,757 663,327

9,162 12,744 17,727 24,659
40,144 51,029 64,866 82,454

379685 457290 550757 663327

9162 12744 17727 24659
40144 51029 64866 82454

327,660 367,320 412,574 464,294

186 193 200 209
4% 4% 4% 4%

1765 1906 2058 2223

8% 8% 8% 8%

707.6 771.0 836.3 903.0

9% 9% 8% 8%
 46.3 47.2 48.2 49.1
2% 2% 2% 2%

327599 364118 402850 443648

7231.9 8937.6 11045.7 13650.9

24% 24% 24% 24%

27652.8 29173.7 30778.2 32471.0

6% 6% 6% 6%
Year 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 A 2014 A 2015 E

Cash - BOP
CFO
CFI
CFF (without Debt)
CashFlow adjustments
Minimum Cash for Operations
Cash Available for Debt Repayment

Debt Schedule
Secured Loan-end of period 73,166 79,962 87,041 91,630 88,758

Debt Repayment / (Raised) Schedule - in the period

Secured Loan

Interest Expense 6,906 3,966 10,557 9,495 7,700

Interest Expense Rate % 5.4% 13.2% 10.9% 8.4%
2016 E 2017 E 2018 E 2019 E
Idea Cellular
Asset Schedule
(All data is Millions INR, except per share information)
(Red for assumptions, Blue for actual data, Black for calculations)
Date Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Year 2010 A 2011 A 2012 A 2013 A 2014 A 2015 E

Gross Block 270,585 314,232 383,125 433,071 472,879

Depreciation 18,123 23,973 29,813 34,778 45,194

Depreciation as % Opening Gross Block 8.9% 9.5% 9.1% 10.4%

Purchase of Assets (CAPEX) 41,474 85,473 47,327 34,987 36,985

Purchase of Assets as % Total Sales 33% 55% 24% 16% 14%

Spectrum and Licenses 213.22 31436.07

Dividends Paid 0 0 0 250 1,306

DDT (Divi Distribution Tax) 17% 17% 17% 17% 17%
Dividends less Distribution Tax 0 0 0 214 1116

DPS=Divi (less dist tax) / basic share 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.34
Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
2016 E 2017 E 2018 E 2019 E
Idea Cellular
Template
(All data is Millions INR, except per share information)
(Red for assumptions, Blue for actual data, Black for calculations)

Current Price
Current Price 170 Number of Shares (2014)
Beta 0.95 Total Debt (2014)
rf 8% Interest Rate (Avg)
rm 16% Tax Rate (Avg)
India Economic Growth 5%
Market Capitalization
Ke

we
wd Equity
ke Debt
kd Total Capital
WACC

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

EBIT * ( 1 - t )
Dep
Purchase of Asset (Capex)
Change in Working Capital
FCFF

Terminal Value
Total Cash Flow

Enterprise Value (Value of Firm)

Debt (2014)
Cash (2014)
Equity Value LT Growth Rate

Target Price (Equity Value/Shares)

Wacc

Recommendation
LT Growth Rate