Climate Statistics PDF

Introduction to Statistics for Climatology https://www.meted.ucar.edu/afwa/climo/stats/print.
php
Introduction to Statistics for Climatology

Produced by The COMET® Program
Navigation Menu
Introduction
Welcome
Datasets Used
Statistical Parameters
The Mean
Mean Defined
Limitations of the Mean Value
Question about the Mean
Relationship between the Mean & Climatological Record
The Median
Median Defined
Median and Outlying Values
Median and Mean
The Mode
Mode Defined
Influence of Extreme Values
Uniqueness of the Mode
Extreme Values
Extreme Values Defined
Extreme Values and Long-term Averages
Frequency of Occurrence
Frequency of Occurrence Defined
Calculating Frequency of Occurrence
Notes on Frequency of Occurrence
Range
Introduction to Range
Range Defined
Range and Mean
Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation Defined & Derived
Interpreting Standard Deviation
Normal Bell Curve for Asheville
Large vs. Small Standard Deviations
Individual Observations
Large Standard Deviations
Climate Parameters
Temp. & Statistical Parameters
Measuring Temperature
Mean Temperature Using Hourly vs. Max/Min Data
Mean Temperature at Limited Observing Sites
Why Results might be Similar
Interpreting Temperature Summaries
Planning Exercise, 1
Planning Exercise, 2
Standard Deviation & Extreme Values
Temperature & the Climate Record
Wind Speed & Direction
Measuring Wind Speed and Direction
Wind Direction with Mean and Mode
Wind Direction Question
Wind Speed with Mean & Mode, 1
Percent Frequency of Occurrence with a Wind Rose
Question 1
Question 2
Visibility
Visibility Defined
Percent Frequency of Occurrence
Frequency of Occurrence Question
Percent Frequency of Time
Number of Days
Number of Days Summaries
Interpreting Number of Days, 1
Interpreting Number of Days, 2
Probabilities & Anomalies Using El Niño
About Anomalies
Climate Probabilities
Data Quality
Recording Errors
Avoiding Errors
Summary
Contributors
Introduction
Welcome Back to Top
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Introduction to Statistics for Climatology https://www.meted.ucar.edu/afwa/climo/stats/print.php
Imagine that an organization wants to determine how El Niño conditions may impact their worldwide operations. They will need to examine a
variety of climate variables for their locations, including temperature, precipitation, and wind speed and direction. In all likelihood, they will use
climate summaries, which present statistical information about climate data using statistical parameters, such as averages, frequency of
occurrence, standard deviation, and number of days.
The effective use of summaries and other climate products requires an understanding of what the statistical parameters mean and which best
summarize the data for each climate variable. This lesson addresses both concerns, taking a two-pronged approach:
Focusing on the statistical parameters (mean, median, mode, extreme values, percent frequency of occurrence and time, range,
standard deviation, and data anomalies), defining what they mean and how they are calculated using climate data as examples
Focusing on weather and climate variables, identifying the statistical parameters that best represent each one
The lesson concludes with a discussion of data quality and its impact on weather and climate products.
Note that the Quick Statistics Guide (upper right) provides brief summaries of the statistical parameters and can be accessed at any point—
whenever you want a reminder of what a parameter means, how it is calculated, and its advantages and disadvantages.
Intended Audience
The lesson is intended for forecasters and students interested in improving their understanding of the basic statistics used in climate products
so they can make better use of climatology products for planning and operational purposes. Basic knowledge of meteorology is beneficial
although not required.
For background information on climatology (what it is, the factors that create an area’s climate, and the sources and uses of climate
information), access the lesson Introduction to Climatology in COMET’s Climatology for Forecasters series.
Datasets Used
Throughout the lesson, we will examine data from two locations in the United States: Asheville, North Carolina and Monterey, California. Before
proceeding, take a minute to learn a little about each area...
Asheville is an inland site, sitting at the confluence of two rivers in the Blue Ridge Mountains. Of its total area (41 square miles), less than 1% is
water. In contrast, Monterey lies on Monterey Bay along the Pacific coast in central California.
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Statistical Parameters
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The Mean
Mean Defined
When dealing with a set of data, such as daily high temperatures, one can determine the center of the data by calculating the mean. Often
called the average, this familiar measure is calculated by adding up the individual values and dividing by the number of values. Note that the
mean is typically more precise than any single observation.
For this one-month, high temperature dataset from Asheville, NC, the sum of the 31 temperatures is 2045. The mean equals 2045 divided by
31 or approximately 66°F.
Limitations of the Mean Value
There’s one caveat to working with mean values. They can be skewed by the presence (or absence) of just one observation if it is very different
from the other values.
For our Asheville dataset, imagine that one of the 62°F temperatures was mistakenly recorded as 262°F. That would change the mean
(average) value to approximately 72°F. A 6.45°F difference in the average monthly temperature is a very large change, climatically speaking.
When temperatures are measured over a long time period, mean monthly values are fairly representative of typical values. That’s because
recording errors can easily be excluded and each month usually has a well-defined range of values. Of course, this only applies when climate
conditions are steady. If they are changing, a long-term mean will not necessarily be representative.
Rainfall amounts are different from temperatures since individual values over a month can differ by orders of magnitude, for example, 10.0
inches vs. 0.1 inches. This means that monthly rainfall averages may not necessarily be as good an indicator of how much rain to expect for
that month as average temperatures are for monthly temperatures. We will see an example of this on the next page when we calculate the
rainfall average for two months.
Question about the Mean
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What is the mean (average) rainfall for months A and B? (Feel free to use a calculator.) Click the correct answer, then click Done.
a) Month A = 2 cm, month B = 20 cm

b) Month A = 20 cm, month B = 2 cm
c) Month A = 10 cm, month B = 5 cm
d) Month A = 5 cm, month B = 10 cm
The correct answer is a).
To calculate the mean, add the values for each month and divide by the number of values. As you can see, the large value of 100 cm for
month B has impacted the mean value, making it higher than all other observed amounts.
Other climate variables, such as wind, can be similarly affected. To see how the impacts of such errors are reduced, we will examine the
relationship between the mean and the climatological record on the next page.
Relationship between the Mean & Climatological Record
To reduce the impact of very large or small values on a dataset’s mean value, we smooth out the outlier values by including more observations
over a longer period of time.
How long should a period of record be? Thirty years of data are typically used for developing an area’s climatology. For consistency, that
length is used for most weather parameters, not just temperature and rainfall.
The 30-year period is typically updated every ten years to include the most recent decade. So the 1997 30-year U.S. climate period of record
spanned the years 1961 to 1990, whereas the next reference period went from 1971 to 2000. Note that the data in the table below have a
longer period of record (34 years).
In addition to mean, two other terms deal with the ‘location’ or center of a dataset: median and mode. We will examine them next.
The Median
Median Defined
The median is the middle value of a dataset when the values are placed in order from lowest to highest. When there are an odd number of
values, such as in this 31-day temperature series, the median is the middle value, in this case, 67°F. There are 15 values greater than or equal
to 67°F and 15 values less than 67°F.
When a dataset has an even number of values, say June with its 30 days, we find the median by calculating the mean for the two middle
values (adding them and dividing by two).
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Median and Outlying Values
Question
We've established that the mean is affected by outlying values. Do you think the same is true for the median? Select the correct answer,
then click Done.
a) Yes
b) No
The correct answer is b).
The median is not affected by outlying values. If we increase the two highest October temperatures in our example by 20 degrees, the
median is still the middle value or 67°F.
Median and Mean
While the median and mean both provide information about the center of a given dataset, their values can be quite different.
In this rainfall dataset, notice that the mean and median are fairly close for month A but are quite different for month B.
Review both months' data
Because the median divides a dataset into halves, it is a useful measure when you need to further divide the data into thirds or quarters, etc.
(for example, if you want to examine 1/3 of a population or the top 25% of students).
The Mode
Mode Defined
Question
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The mode is usually the easiest value to find in a dataset since it is the value that occurs most often. What is the mode of this dataset?
Select the correct answer, then click Done.
a) 62°F
b) 68°F
c) 71°F
d) 77°F
The mode is 68°F because it occurs three times, more than any other number.
Influence of Extreme Values
Question
Based on how the mode is determined, would you expect it to be influenced by extreme values (those that are unusually high or
low)? Explain your answer in the textbox, then click Done.
The mode is not influenced by extreme values unless they occur multiple times, such as during extreme weather events. The data below
show a strong heat wave.
Uniqueness of the Mode
Question
Does the mode have to be unique? When is it not a useful way of describing a dataset? Explain your answer in the textbox, then
click Done.
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The mode does not have to be unique and, indeed, is not unique when:
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Every value in a dataset is different; then each value occurs with the same frequency (once), making the mode uninformative
A number of values occur multiple times but the same number of times; then the mode is all of those values; multiple modes make
data interpretation and comparisons more difficult
The mode provides the best summary for some weather and climate variables, such as wind direction.
Extreme Values
Extreme Values Defined
Extreme values (the highest and lowest values) are useful for assessing risk for highly
unusual events, such as 100-year floods. Since extreme events often cause the most
damage, recognizing and planning for them can save lives and millions of dollars in
property damage.
In the example below, the extreme monthly high temperature is the largest or
maximum value, 81°F. The extreme monthly low temperature is the smallest or
minimum value, 52°F.
Extreme Values and Long-term Averages
To see how extreme values for one month in a particular year compare to long-term averages, let’s compare Asheville’s largest high
temperature of 81°F from one October with a multi-year climate summary.
The summary shown below contains extreme values (extreme maximum and minimum temperatures) and mean values (daily maximum,
monthly, and daily minimum temperatures).
By comparing the one-month mean daily maximum temperature with the long-term mean daily and extreme maximum temperature
observations for October, we see that:
The 66°F mean in the October observations is within one degree of the long-term mean daily maximum temperature of 67°F
The highest daily observed temperature of 81°F is seven degrees below the all-time extreme maximum temperature of 88°F
One final note of importance: Although extreme values or events, such as intense rainstorms or very hot temperatures, are often of short
duration and occur rarely as compared to the norm, the probability of occurrence is the same at any one time. So if a 100-year flood has a
1% probability of occurring, that probability remains the same each year. It does not matter if it occurred recently or not. So if you are planning
for a high-priority or high-value situation, be sure to take extreme events into consideration!
Frequency of Occurrence Defined

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Frequency of occurrence is often used to provide a compact summary of a dataset. It is like the mode in that you determine the most frequently
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occurring value. Then you count the number of times it occurs and divide the number by the total number of values in the dataset. This brings
us to the formal definition of frequency of occurrence:
The number of occurrences of a particular value divided by the total number of values
When a dataset is relatively small, there is little need to perform a frequency of occurrence calculation because it’s easy to scan the data and
see how frequently a value occurs.
But when a dataset is large or has multiple modes of different values, it is harder to find the most frequently occurring values. Then values are
often grouped into bins before calculating the frequency of occurrence.
We have grouped the 31 Asheville high temperature values into five-degree bins and counted the number of values (occurrences) in each bin.
There are six values between 60 and 64, and four between 75 and 79, etc.
We can display this same data as a bar chart or histogram. Notice which format you find easier to interpret.
Calculating Frequency of Occurrence
Question
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Now that the data are binned, we can finish determining the frequency of occurrence. With what frequency do the values in the 65°F to
69°F bin occur? (Find the number of values in that bin and divide them by the total number of values. Feel free to use a calculator.) When
ready, type your answer in the text box, then click Done.
The frequency of occurrence is 7/31, which equals 0.2258. The number is often expressed as a percent, which is done by taking the
frequency and multiplying by 100. Thus 0.2258 x 100 = 22.58%. The complete calculation is: (7/31) x 100 = 22.58%.
Notes on Frequency of Occurrence
You can think of frequency of occurrence as the proportion of the dataset that falls into each bin. When possible, it is best to group values into
bins of equal length. That makes for the easiest comparison across the dataset.
Histograms enable you to quickly identify where most of the values lie, in this case from 60 to 74°F.
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Range
Introduction to Range
No single statistical measure (mean, mode, median, extreme value, or frequency of occurrence) provides a complete summarization of a
dataset, particularly in regard to its variability. Other statistical parameters are needed.
Consider these two simple datasets:
Both have a mean of 50 and a median of 60. But the observations in the Y dataset cluster more closely about the center than do those in the X
dataset. Therefore, X’s dataset has more variability than Y’s.
To obtain additional information about a dataset’s variability, we use two other measures, range and standard deviation.
Range Defined
Range is a very simple measure of the variability in a dataset. It is the difference between the highest and lowest values. Range is often used
to complement other statistical parameters, such as mean, mode, and median. Range tends to be used most often with temperature—to find
the annual temperature range of a location.
Question Back to Top
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As you can see, the temperature range for the North Carolina dataset is 29°F, whereas it is only 11°F at the coastal station in California.
Does that range seem high or low? Based on your knowledge of climatology, which site would you expect to have the smaller
range? Click on the correct answer, then click Done.
a) The inland station (NC)

b) The coastal station (CA)
Temperatures at coastal stations typically have smaller ranges since they are moderated by the nearby water. In contrast, inland sites are
influenced by greater radiational cooling and warming and passing weather systems, which create larger temperature differences.
Range and Mean
Question
Which statements are true about the range and mean? Select each correct statement, then click Done.
a) Mean uses all observations whereas range uses only two

b) Range and mean are both influenced by extreme values
c) Range provides information about the middle values
d) Mean provides information about the middle values
The correct answers are a) and b).
Since the mean uses all values, it is influenced by extreme values. Although one might expect the mean to provide information about
middle values, it doesn't if there's a gap in the middle of the dataset. Likewise, the range does not provide information about the middle
values. Median, on the other hand, does.
Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation Defined & Derived
Standard deviation provides detailed information about a dataset’s variability. It tells us how the data are clustered about the mean (tightly or
loosely) and which values are reasonable and expected or extreme (either rare or erroneous). This is a useful way of assessing the validity of
individual values in a dataset.
It is extremely unlikely that you will ever need to calculate standard deviation since it is a standard value calculated in most software packages
and spreadsheet programs. If interested in its derivation, read on. Otherwise, skip to the next page.
The standard deviation is derived by taking the square root of the sum of the difference for each value from the mean, squared, divided by the
number of values minus 1. Mathematically, it looks like this:
Here is the detailed standard deviation calculation for the October Ashville, NC temperature data, using a mean of 65.97°F.
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For simplicity, we will round off the standard deviation to 8°F so it's easier to interpret the graphics and text on the following pages.
Interpreting Standard Deviation
Standard deviation can be calculated for any dataset. When a dataset has a normal distribution, the following is generally true:
Approximately 68% of the values lie within +/- 1 standard deviation of the mean
Approximately 95% of the values lie within +/- 2 standard deviations of the mean
Approximately 99.7% of the values lie within +/- 3 standard deviations of the mean
Observations outside +/- 3 standard deviations are rare weather events or errors.
You’ve probably seen a dataset’s standard deviation represented as a bell curve. The graphic below illustrates traits of the normal distribution
as different bell curves. The center of the bell is the mean (average) and the inflection of the curve (the point at which it turns from downward to
upward) on either side is one standard deviation away.
Normal Bell Curve for Asheville
For this Ashville, NC October high temperature dataset, the mean is approximately 66°F and the standard deviation is approximately 8°F. One
standard deviation includes temperatures from 58°F to 74°F, where 21 of the 31 observations or 67.7% lie. That’s within the 68% threshold so
it’s reasonable to assume that the dataset values follow a normal distribution.
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Large vs. Small Standard Deviations
Given that the California coastal station has a smaller temperature range than the inland North Carolina station, you shouldn’t be surprised to
see more of its values clustered around the mean. That gives it a smaller standard deviation and taller bell curve. In fact, 24 of the 31
observations, or 77.4% of the values, lie within +/- 1 standard deviation (2.5°F) of the mean (approximately 59°F).
Asheville, on the other hand, has a larger standard deviation and flatter bell curve.
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In summary:
The more clustered the data values are around the mean, the smaller the standard deviation
The less clustered (more widespread) the data values are around the mean, the larger the standard deviation
Individual Observations
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Question
For normally distributed data, the standard deviation tells us something about an individual observation—if it is reasonable, extreme, or
perhaps erroneous. Suppose that our inland North Carolina and coastal California stations both report a high temperature of 75°F for a
particular day in October. Is that value reasonable for each station? (Is it within +/- 3 standard deviations of the mean where 99.7% of
normally distributed data observations are expected to occur?) Click the correct answer, then click Done.
a) 75°F is reasonable for Monterey

b) 75°F is reasonable for Asheville
c) 75°F is unreasonable for both
Based on the information provided, the best answer is b).
75°F is only 1.125 standard deviations from the mean in Asheville but is 6.4 standard deviations away from the mean for the California
station, which makes it a very rare event statistically.
Large Standard Deviations
When an observed value is several standard deviations from the mean, such as the 75°F observation below, it does not necessarily imply that
the value is bad or unreasonable. Rather, it illustrates that a single piece of information or even a climate summary may not provide enough
information to make a well-informed decision. Some knowledge of the local climate may be necessary. We will see an example of this later in
the lesson.
In the next section, Climate Parameters, we will examine how weather and climate data are reported and see how useful various Back
statistics are
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for planning and operational purposes. Remember that you can access the Quick Statistics Guide (top right) if you want a reminder of what a
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parameter is, how it is calculated, and its advantages and disadvantages.
Normal Bell Curve for Monterey, CA October High Temperatures
Climate Parameters
Temp. & Stat. Parameters
Measuring Temperature
Since temperature is measured hourly around the world, you might expect that daily mean temperatures would be calculated by adding the
values of all hourly observations and dividing by the total number of observations.
Instead, daily mean temperatures are often calculated for a region’s climate record by using maximum and minimum temperatures:
(Tmax + Tmin)/2
This practice stems from the fact that many stations only have maximum/minimum thermometers and that some stations record full-time while
others only record during daylight or flying hours. Although the practice helps to eliminate inconsistencies, the various recording methods can
yield different results. We’ll see examples of this on the following pages.
Mean Temperature Using Hourly vs. Max/Min Data
For this dataset, the mean temperature is 12.5°C when all hourly observations from one day are used vs. 14°C when only maximum and
minimum temperatures are used.
Mean Temperature at Limited Observing Sites
How does the mean change when a limited observing station records temperatures only during daylight operations or flying hours? The
highlighted values are the limited observations.
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Why Results might be Similar
For our dataset, notice the similarities and differences between the mean values calculated via different methods. The daily mean temperature
is:
The same (14°C) when using maximum and minimum values across all 24 hourly observations vs. limited 13 hourly observations; that’s
because the maximum and minimum temperatures happened to occur during the limited observing hours
Different when using all 24 hourly observations vs. maximum and minimum observations only, vs. all 13 hourly observations of the
limited observing period
So it is not only important to understand the statistical parameters presented in climate summaries (means and modes, etc.) but how the
parameters may have been calculated.
Interpreting Temperature Summaries
Using automated recording systems reduces errors by providing consistent observations throughout the day and minimizing the potential for
recording mistakes. But many parts of the world only have limited observing stations with manually reported observations. This makes it
particularly important to be a critical interpreter of temperature and other climate summaries.
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Question
Which of the following conditions impact temperature climate summaries and are important to consider when interpreting data?
Select all of the correct answers, then click Done.
a) The length of the temperature record

b) The typical number and timing of observations per day
c) Whether the observations are automated or manual
d) Whether the data have undergone quality control and, if so, what type
e) The station location (coast vs. inland; tropical vs. midlatitude; city vs. rural)
f) The station’s elevation (for example, in a lowland valley vs. atop a mountain)
g) Knowing how the statistical parameters are calculated
All of the choices are correct and either influence temperature or daily mean temperature calculations.
Planning Exercise, Question 1
Assume that you are starting to plan a one-week trip to a new destination and are wondering what you will need to pack based on typical
temperatures. Some temperature statistics are more useful to consider than others in this type of situation. Click on those statistics,
then click Done.
a) Mean temperature
b) Extreme maximum temperature
c) Extreme minimum temperature
d) Number of days >= 90°F (32°C)
e) Number of days <= 32°F (0°C)
f) Mean daily maximum temperature
g) Mean daily minimum temperature
The best answers are f) and g).
Average high (maximum) and low (minimum) temperatures provide the best idea about likely temperatures and the range of temperatures
to expect. (The mean by itself does not.) For short trips, it is unlikely that you will experience extreme temperature values, making extreme
maximum and minimum temperatures less important.
Planning Exercise, Question 2
Assume that a runway is going to be built. You know that when it is warm outside (say 90°F and above), planes require longer runways to
take off and land. Which statistics should you consult to address this concern? Select all of the correct answers, then click Done.
a) Mean temperature
b) Extreme maximum temperature
c) Extreme minimum temperature Back to Top
d) Number of days >= 90°F (32°C)
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e) Number of days <= 32°F (0°C)

f) Mean daily maximum temperature
g) Mean daily minimum temperature
The correct answers are b) and d).
When planning for permanent structures, you need to consider extreme values and those above a critical point.
Did you notice that the planning questions on this and the previous page had the same choices but different answers? That's because of
the time frames involved (short for the first question, long for the second).
Standard Deviation & Extreme Values
Mean daily minimum and maximum temperatures provide the best guess as to the probable range of temperatures. However, to know how
representative they are and their likelihood of occurrence, you need to know the standard deviation of the dataset and the distribution of data.
Are particular values within +/- 3 standard deviations of the mean? Recall that for a normally distributed dataset, 99.7% of all observations
should be within that range.
Earlier, we examined one month’s worth of temperature data for Asheville, NC and Monterey, CA. We found that 75°F was reasonable for
Asheville since it was 1.125 standard deviations from the mean but unreasonable for Monterey because it was 6.4 standard deviations from the
mean.
Question
Let’s reexamine the 75°F observation for Monterey using an annual temperature summary that includes a variety of statistical parameters,
not just observations for a single month. Looking at the various statistical fields, does the 75°F temperature seem reasonable for
Monterey in October? Select the correct answer, then click Done.
a) Yes
b) No
While 75°F is outside the expected three standard deviations, it is well below October's extreme maximum temperature of 104°F, making it
acceptable. This is where local knowledge is important. Monterey occasionally experiences very strong, gusty, hot Santa Ana winds that
boost its extreme maximum temperatures during fall.
In summary, 75°F went from being unreasonable to reasonable based on the addition of other statistical parameters, in particular extreme
values.
Temperature & the Climate Record
Question
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Earlier, we found the October mean daily high temperature values for a particular year for each station: about 66°F for Asheville and about
59°F for Monterey. Now we’ll use a 30-year rather than one-year period of record for October. Are the maximum temperature means
from that October typical of longer-term mean conditions for that month? Select the correct answer(s), then click Done.
a) Asheville is near normal

b) Monterey is near normal
c) Neither is near normal
The October long-term mean daily high temperature is 67°F for both cities. The single year temperature of 59°F for Monterey is
considerably colder than normal, while the single year temperature of 66°F is very close to normal for Asheville.
Wind Speed/Dir.
Measuring Wind Speed and Direction
Wind speed and direction are measured independently. Wind speed is often measured in knots and displayed using wind barbs that represent
the direction from which the wind is coming.
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Wind direction is indicated with words like ‘from the east’ or easterly and with values on a compass that represent direction.
Take a minute to think about this...
Which statistical parameters are most useful for dealing with wind speed and wind direction: mean, mode, median, extreme values, or
frequency of occurrence?
As you’ll see in the next pages, they differ for the two variables.
Wind Direction with Mean and Mode
Twenty-four hourly observations are shown for this station, one wind barb for each unique wind speed and direction. For simplicity, we’ve made
the wind speed 15 knots for all observations, represented by the standard long and short barbs on the direction staff.
The numbers beside the barbs indicate the number of hours during which there was a 15-kt wind from that direction. For example, winds were
at 15 kt for three hours from 020 degrees and for two hours from 030 degrees.
Wind Direction Question
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If we calculate the mean wind direction using the individual values on the compass (add the 24 directions and divide by 24), we get a mean
wind direction of approximately 265 degrees (red barb on the graphic). But this is not a good representation of the day’s wind direction
because the wind never blew from the west-south-west (265 degrees). Which statistical parameter would do a better job of
summarizing the wind direction for the day? Select the correct answer, then click Done.
a) Median
b) Standard deviation
c) Mode
d) Extreme value
The correct answer is c), the mode or most common value.
There are 14 observations with a wind direction of 330 degrees, making this the prevailing wind direction on this day.
Question
Unlike wind direction, mean wind speed can be calculated in the normal way—by adding all of the values and dividing by the number of
values. However, for climate records, the mean wind speed is often calculated from the prevailing (mode) direction rather than from all
directions. This can be problematic under some circumstances. Of the following, which might these be? Select all that apply, then
click Done.
a) When it is very windy

b) When it is raining
c) When the wind reaches its maximum for the day
d) When the wind is calm
e) When the wind is bimodal (has two primary directions)
The correct answers are d) and e).

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When winds are calm or bimodal, the mean wind speed from the prevailing (mode) direction provides little useful information for planning
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purposes. When winds are calm over a large portion of the day, such as overnight, the prevailing wind direction is 'no direction' and the
mean wind speed is zero.
Bimodal winds often occur on mountain slopes (up or downslope) or in coastal areas (on or offshore). Under these circumstances,
prevailing winds may have the same mean wind speed but they are from opposite directions at different times of day.
Most climate applications are interested in the mean wind speed from the prevailing (mode) wind directionwhen the wind is blowing. Therefore,
we determine the prevailing (mode) wind direction excluding calm winds and then calculate the mean wind speed for that direction.
When climate summaries adjust for calm winds, they should indicate how wind speed values and direction were calculated. They may also
include the percentage of time during which winds were calm.
This wind direction frequency plot shows winds generally from an easterly direction but with different speeds. The values are the highest
reported speeds from each direction (070, 090, and 110). If we use all wind observations, including calm, the mean wind speed for the day is
6.8 or about 7 knots. (We summed the values and divided by 24.)
In the figure below, the prevailing (mode or most frequent) wind direction is calm because it occurred more than any other value. But
convention says to exclude calm (0) winds. So we need to find the next most frequent direction, in this case 090 or 90 degrees, which is an
easterly wind. If we exclude calm winds, the mean speed from the prevailing direction is 14.1 or 14 knots.
As shown below, if we calculate the overall mean wind speed excluding calm winds, it is 11.7 or about 12 kts.
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Percent Frequency of Occurrence with a Wind Rose
When you have a large number of wind observations (such as those generated for monthly, seasonal, or annual periods), it can be helpful to
use a wind rose and frequency of occurrence to summarize the information.
A wind rose depicts how wind speed and direction are distributed over the 16 compass points at a particular location and elevation for a period
of time or record. The data are plotted onto a circular graph, which indicates the percent frequency of occurrence over the time period. Periods
of record can range from annual to monthly to seasonal or be of any length. Wind roses often include calm and variable wind observations.
Wind speeds are divided into ranges, each with its own color. This annual wind summary for Scott Air Force Base, IL is for all hours of the day
and spans from 1973 to 2004. The total number of observations is 270,428, about the amount you’d expect for a 31-year period of record with
hourly observations.
Note that on this wind rose, both calm winds and light and variable winds are indicated on the plot itself and as percent time above it (14.22%
and 4.9%). The percent frequency of occurrence for all other wind directions needs to be interpreted from the wind rose directly. This is done by
measuring the distance from the center of the graph to the tick marks, which indicate percent frequency of occurrence. For example, winds
directly from the west occurred about 4% of the time.
Recall that the prevailing wind direction is the most common direction from which the wind blows, when the wind is blowing. While calm winds
occurred most frequently on an annual basis throughout the period of record, they are not used when determining the prevailing wind direction.
Rather, we look for the longest axis. In this case, it is from the south with a frequency of occurrence of about 12%. Back to Top
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Question 1
With what percentage of time do southerly winds with speeds of 1-6 knots (pink) occur? Select the correct answer, then click Done.
a) 2%
b) 6%
c) 10%
d) 12%
If you look at the distance from center of the graph to where the pink area ends along the south radial, you should see that southerly winds
with speeds of 1 to 6 knots occur about 6% of the time.
Question 2
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What is the dominant wind direction of the strongest winds? Select the correct answer, then click Done.
a) North
b) South
c) East
d) West
e) West-northwest
f) South-southwest
g) South-southeast
h) East-northeast
The correct answer is e), west-northwest.
The strongest winds are in the 22- to 27-kt range (orange). They occur across a number of directions (northwest, west-northwest, west,
west-southwest, and south) but are most prevalent from the west-northwest.
Visibility
Visibility Defined
Visibility is measured both horizontally and vertically and indicates the opacity of the atmosphere. In the United States, the term visibility
generally refers to horizontal visibility. In contrast, vertical visibility is usually referred to as ceiling height (the lowest cloud layer). We will
focus on (horizontal) visibility here.
Visibility can be determined by instrument or manually. When instruments are used, they measure the scattering of light. When visibility is
measured manually, it is the distance that can be seen from an observing point to permanent objects of known distance around the horizon.
The measurements are combined into a single value representing the prevailing visibility.
Back to Top
Both instrument and manual observations are generally taken at a height of about two meters.
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Percent Frequency of Occurrence
Assume that there is fog at an airport near sunrise (6:15 AM), which starts to burn off over the course of the morning (from 8 to 10 AM). If flying
operations will be affected by low visibilities, a visibility report is very important. There are several ways of summarizing visibility information.
Let’s see which methods are most useful.
One way is to calculate a standard percent frequency of occurrence. To do this, we add the total number of reported observations with
visibilities of 800 meters or less and divide by the total number of observations. (Note that we've got 30 rather than 24 observations since they
were taken more frequently during the early morning period of low visibility). In this case, the percent frequency of occurrence is 30%, which
could hamper flight operations significantly.
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Note that <= 800 meters is just an example of the minimum visibilities required for flight operations. The number varies by base and pilot
experience.
Frequency of Occurrence Question
Is the 30% frequency of occurrence an accurate representation of the day’s visibility? Select the correct answer, then click Done.
a) Yes
b) No
The multiple observations taken from the 5:00, 6:00, and 7:00 hours increased the total number of reported observations used in the
calculation. The other hours of the day only had one observation each.
Percent Frequency of Time
To balance the need for more observations per hour to define conditions with the need for a better representation of the day, we use percent
frequency of time rather than occurrence.
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The additional column on the right indicates the hours with visibilities of 800 meters or less. If we calculate the standard percent frequency of
time based on the total number of hours with visibility observations of 800 meters or less divided by the total number of hours, we get a percent
frequency of time of about 21% (in contrast to 30% of occurrences). This 9% decrease is considered a large change, particularly for flight
operations.
Number of Days
Number of Days Summaries
Climate summaries may include ‘number of days’ summaries for parameters such as days of rain, snow, fog, and thunderstorms, as well as
days below freezing or above 90°F. These summaries indicate whether an event occurred on a particular day or not. It doesn’t matter how long
the event occurred; it could have lasted all day or only for a short period.
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It is important to know how a summary is done. Is it a percent frequency of occurrence or time, or number of days? Since each parameter
provides different information, they should not be interchanged! You also need to know the occurrence interval used for each parameter, for
example, hours, minutes, or days.
Interpreting Number of Days, Question 1
These tables are for MacDill Air Force Base, FL. One shows Number of Days with Thunderstorms, the other Percent Frequency of
Occurrence of Thunderstorms. The station had 20 days of thunderstorms during July as well as August.
Look at the July and August thunderstorm number of days and percent frequency of occurrence. Which of the following statements is
true? Select the correct answer, then click Done.
a) MacDill may experience thunderstorms about 2/3 of the time

b) MacDill may experience them on about 2/3 of the days for a limited time each
c) MacDill may experience them on about 2/3 of the days for a long period of time each day
Both July and August experience 20 thunderstorm days, that is, a thunderstorm occurs on 20 days in each month. This is about two-thirds
of the number of days in both months, but not two-thirds of the time. The percent frequency of occurrence (the all-hours entry) is about 8%
(July) and 7% (August) of the time, which is relatively low.
This example shows how the number of days and percent frequency of occurrence provide different statistical information and should not
be interchanged.
Interpreting Number of Days, Question 2
Back
Imagine that you are planning a two-hour outing. Does 20 days of thunderstorms per month mean that you will get rained out to out
two Top
of three times? Select the correct answer, then click Done.
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a) No, because the event could be planned for a time of day with a low percent frequency of occurrence
b) Yes, because precipitation generally occurs 2 out of 3 days of the month
c) Yes, because thunderstorms can occur at any time of day
d) No, because thunderstorms are short-lived events
While the area ordinarily gets thunderstorm precipitation 20 out of 31 days each month, the highest frequency of thunderstorms occurs
during the afternoon hours of 1200 to 2000 Local Standard Time. Therefore, if you plan the two-hour event during a time of day with low
thunderstorm frequency, you are less likely to be rained out.
Prob./Anomalies
About Anomalies
A data anomaly is the difference between an observed value and a long-term mean value. An anomaly can be positive or negative. To calculate
an anomaly, we choose a base period of sufficient length for the parameter of interest. Then we calculate the average of the parameter for that
period and compute the difference between the observed value and the long-term average.
If the current observation is greater than the long-term average, the anomaly is positive. When it is less than the long-term average, the
anomaly is negative. Anomalies can be calculated on a monthly, weekly, or seasonal basis, or for any other timeframe.
One of the most widely used anomaly calculations is sea surface temperatures, which are used to help identify El-Niño and La-Niña episodes.
The animation shows daily sea surface temperature anomalies from Jan 01 1997 to Dec 27 1998. The base period for the climatology is 1950
to 1979. A positive or warm anomaly in the reds and browns indicates a strong El-Niño episode.
Download Video
Climate Probabilities
Given recent trends, it is reasonable to expect that you may need to consider how the current environment may change based on changing
climatic conditions. Climate probabilities can help deal with these uncertainties, since they indicate the odds for a particular outcome given
certain conditions.
The seasonal El-Niño and La-Niña climate probabilities of precipitation around the globe are among the most frequently used climate
probabilities. If we use straight probabilities without climate information, the odds of a given area experiencing normal, above average, or below
average precipitation are one in three or 33%. But the percentages often change during El-Niño events, with regions experiencing greater or
lesser chances of precipitation.
This mean U.S. precipitation anomalies map during El-Niño years shows that California typically experiences a dramatic increase in
precipitation (6 to 8 inches or more) while the southeast U.S. may experience only a slight increase.
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How well did that anomaly information predict what happened during the El Niño year of 1998? It was a better indicator of what might happen
over California than the Southeast U.S. It suggested that California might experience more than 8 inches of precipitation above normal levels,
which actually occurred from July 1997 to May 1998. In contrast, it suggested that the Southeast U.S. might experience from 0 to 6 inches
above normal, which was too low for the 1998 event as shown by the dark blue values from Florida northward.
If anomalies are represented as percent frequency of occurrence, they are useful as climate probabilities. However, climate probabilities require
careful interpretation and caution since the information is based on past events and may not hold true in the future.
Data Quality
Recording Errors
It is important to consider the accuracy of the data when dealing with any dataset. In an earlier section, we saw the impact of an obvious
recording error. A temperature was recorded as 262°F instead of 62°F, leading to a 6.45°F difference in the average monthly temperature (a
very large change climatically). The error was so obvious that it was easy to detect and discard. But errors can be far more subtle and difficult
to discern.
October High Temperatures Dataset for Asheville, NC with an erroneous value plus a depiction of how the mean was derived
For this Monterey, CA dataset, a 75°F temperature is outside the +/- 3 standard deviations of the mean daily high temperature of 59°F but
below the all-time October maximum of 104°F. Therefore, it is considered reasonable.
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But what if the 75°F was a recording error and should have been 57°F? That would put it within one standard deviation of the mean and close
to the rest of the recorded values for the month.
Given that a temperature of 57°F or 75°F would be reasonable for October, you would not expect either to be considered a data error.
What if a wind observation of 18 knots is reported as 81 knots? This would make it hurricane force and capable of doing much damage. If this
error occurs once, its impact will be small on a 30-year climatological average but large if the all-time maximum valid wind speed is only 60
knots.
What should you glean from this discussion? That data can contain errors; that reporting errors can occur for any parameter; and that you
should use common sense when reviewing data!
Avoiding Errors
What questions should you consider when reviewing and summarizing data to minimize errors? Try to think of at least four
questions (our list has eight!). Type your questions in the text box, then click Done.
How does your list compare to these questions?
Do the values make sense when compared to the rest of the dataset?
If you have access to long-term averages or other long-term information, do the values make sense in comparison?
Is there a sign error (positive vs. negative) or transposition error (reversal of numbers)?
Is the reporting time/date for the value correct? Does it make sense?
Does the value make sense meteorologically? That is, a reported temperature cannot be lower than the dew point temperature, and
a wind direction cannot be greater than 360°.
Is something wrong with an instrument? Is it actually down but still reporting (erroneous) data?
Could there be a reporting error?
How might a statistical summary be affected by an error? Back to Top
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Summary
Congratulations on completing the lesson! Please review the summary below, then complete the Quiz and the Survey. Note that if you are
taking the lesson via your organization's learning management system (LMS), navigate to the quiz from within that system, not via the MetEd
registration system.
Summary of the Statistical Parameters Covered in the Lesson
Mean
Definition: Describes the middle of a dataset (when no outliers are present)
Calculation: Add the individual values and divide by the number of values
Advantages: A frequently used measure; is unique; is only one mean; useful when comparing datasets
Disadvantage: Is affected by extreme values
Mnemonic (memory aid) for distinguishing between the mean, median, and mode:
The median is the middle like the one in the road,

while the mean is the average and the mode is the most,
frequent that is.
Median
Definition: The middle value of a dataset when the values are placed in order from lowest to highest
Calculation: Place the values in order from lowest to highest, then find the middle value
Advantages: Is not as affected by extreme values as the mean; useful when comparing datasets; is unique; is only one value
Disadvantage: Not used as often as the mean
Mode
Definition: The most frequently occurring item(s)
Calculation: Find the value(s) that occur(s) most often
Advantages: Not affected by extreme values
Disadvantages: Not used as often as the mean and median; is not necessarily a unique value; may be more than one mode; when no values
are repeated, the mode is every value and therefore useless; when there is more than one mode, it is difficult to interpret and/or compare
Extreme Values
Definition: The maximum and minimum value of a dataset
Calculation: Find the maximum and minimum values
Advantages: Are not affected by repeating values; are unique
Disadvantages: Only provides information about two values; can unduly influence the mean
Range
Definition: The difference between the maximum and minimum
Calculation: Find the difference between maximum and minimum values
Advantages: Is not affected by repeating values; is unique
Disadvantages: Only provides information about two values; can unduly influence the mean
Definition: Describes the proportion of a dataset that occurs at a certain value or within a range of values
Calculation: Find the number of occurrences of a particular value, divide by the total number of values, and multiply by 100
Advantage: Consolidates and provides information across the entire dataset
Disadvantage: Is highly influenced by the range selected
Standard Deviation
Definition: Describes the variability (spread) of the dataset about the mean
Calculation: Take the square root of the sum of the difference for each value from the mean, squared, divided by the number of values minus 1
Advantages: Provides a measure of how individual values compare to the mean; if the dataset is normally distributed, it indicates how much of
the dataset is clustered about the mean (68% are within +/- 1 STD; 95% are within +/- 2 STD; 99.7 are within +/- 3 STD)
Back to Top
Disadvantage: Is affected by extreme values
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Anomalies
Definition: The difference between an observed value and a long-term mean value; can be positive or negative
Calculation: Choose a base period of sufficient length for the parameter of interest; calculate the average of the parameter for that period; then
take the difference between the long-term value (average) and the observation
Advantage: Indicates differences from long-term averages
Disadvantage: Any significant deviation from the baseline is indicated as an anomaly
Summary of the Climate & Weather Variables Covered in the Lesson
Here are some guidelines to follow when determining which statistical parameter to use with various climate variables. Note that the list is not
exhaustive since this lesson did not examine the full range of climate and statistical parameters.
Temperature
For average lows and highs, use the mean over days/months/etc.
For information on >90°F (32°C) or < 32°F (0°C), use the number of days
For annual max/min, use range
Wind
For wind direction, use modewhen the wind is blowing

For wind speed, use the mean of the prevailing wind directionwhen the wind is blowing
To determine how long a certain wind occurred, use percent frequency of time (a wind rose)
Weather Events
For rain, use mean in combination with range and extreme values
For fog, use percent frequency of time
For thunderstorms, use the number of days and frequency of occurrence with a time period of hours
For El Niño/La Niña events, use anomalies and climate probabilities
Data Quality
Determine if the data are normally distributed; if so, 99.7% of observations are within +/- 3 standard deviations
Consider if data make sense meteorologically and with other values
Determine if the instruments are working
Contributors
COMET Sponsors
MetEd and the COMET® Program are a part of theUniversity Corporation for Atmospheric Research's (UCAR's) Community Programs (UCP)
and are sponsored by
NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS)

with additional funding by:
Bureau of Meteorology of Australia (BoM)
Bureau of Reclamation, United States Department of the Interior
European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT)
Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC)
NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service (NESDIS)
NOAA's National Geodetic Survey (NGS)
National Science Foundation (NSF)
Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command (NMOC)
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)
To learn more about us, please visit the COMET website.
Project Contributors
Principal Science Advisors
Katy Ginger — UCAR/DLS

Maj Dan Wunder — AFWA
Jeff Zautner — AFWA
Project Lead
Marianne Weingroff — UCAR/COMET
Instructional Design
Katy Ginger — UCAR/DLS

Computer Graphics/Interface Design

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Steve Deyo — UCAR/COMET
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Brannan McGill — UCAR/COMET

Multimedia Authoring
Dan Riter — UCAR/COMET

COMET Staff, October 2008
Director
Dr. Timothy Spangler
Deputy Director
Dr. Joe Lamos
Administration
Elizabeth Lessard, Administration and Business Manager

Lorrie Alberta
Michelle Harrison
Hildy Kane
Graphics/Media Production
Steve Deyo
Seth Lamos
Brannan McGill
Hardware/Software Support and Programming
Tim Alberta, Group Manager

James Hamm
Ken Kim
Mark Mulholland
Wade Pentz (Student)
Malte Winkler
Instructional Designers
Dr. Patrick Parrish, Project Manager

Dr. Alan Bol
Lon Goldstein
Bryan Guarente
Dr. Vickie Johnson
Marianne Weingroff
Media Production Group
Bruce Muller, Project Manager

Steve Deyo
Seth Lamos
Brannan McGill
Dan Riter
Carl Whitehurst
Meteorologists/Scientists
Dr. Greg Byrd, Senior Project Manager

Wendy Schreiber-Abshire, Senior Project Manager
Dr. William Bua
Patrick Dills
Dr. Stephen Jascourt
Matthew Kelsch
Dolores Kiessling
Dr. Arlene Laing
Dr. Elizabeth Mulvihill Page
Warren Rodie
Amy Stevermer
Dr. Doug Wesley
Science Writer
Jennifer Frazer
Spanish Translations
David Russi
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NOAA/National Weather Service - Forecast Decision Training Branch
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Anthony Mostek, Branch Chief

Dr. Richard Koehler, Hydrology Training Lead
Brian Motta, IFPS Training
Dr. Robert Rozumalski, SOO Science and Training Resource [SOO/STRC] Coordinator
Ross Van Til, Meteorologist
Shannon White, AWIPS Training
Meteorological Service of Canada Visiting Meteorologists
Phil Chadwick
Jim Murtha
© Copyright 2008-2019, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.

All rights reserved. Legal notices
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Introduction to Statistics for Climatology https://www.meted.ucar.edu/afwa/climo/stats/print.

Introduction to Statistics for Climatology

Welcome Back to Top

Limitations of the Mean Value

Question about the Mean

a) Month A = 2 cm, month B = 20 cm

The correct answer is a).

Relationship between the Mean & Climatological Record

Median and Outlying Values

The correct answer is b).

Median and Mean

Review both months' data

The correct answer is b).

Influence of Extreme Values

Uniqueness of the Mode

Extreme Values Defined

Extreme Values and Long-term Averages

Frequency of Occurrence Defined

Calculating Frequency of Occurrence

Notes on Frequency of Occurrence

Consider these two simple datasets:

Question Back to Top

a) The inland station (NC)

The correct answer is b).

Range and Mean

a) Mean uses all observations whereas range uses only two

The correct answers are a) and b).

Standard Deviation Defined & Derived

Interpreting Standard Deviation

Normal Bell Curve for Asheville

Large vs. Small Standard Deviations

a) 75°F is reasonable for Monterey

Based on the information provided, the best answer is b).

Large Standard Deviations

parameter is, how it is calculated, and its advantages and disadvantages.

Normal Bell Curve for Monterey, CA October High Temperatures

Temp. & Stat. Parameters

Mean Temperature Using Hourly vs. Max/Min Data

Mean Temperature at Limited Observing Sites

Why Results might be Similar

Interpreting Temperature Summaries

a) The length of the temperature record

Planning Exercise, Question 1

The best answers are f) and g).

Planning Exercise, Question 2

e) Number of days <= 32°F (0°C)

The correct answers are b) and d).

Standard Deviation & Extreme Values

The correct answer is a).

Temperature & the Climate Record

a) Asheville is near normal

The correct answer is a).

Measuring Wind Speed and Direction

Take a minute to think about this...

Wind Direction with Mean and Mode

Wind Direction Question

The correct answer is c), the mode or most common value.

Wind Speed with Mean & Mode, 1