Frequency analysis

142

RECURRENCE INTERVAL = RETURN PERIOD

BUT
 Frequency analysis
143

Annual maximum discharges (Qmax) of the Guadalupe River near

Victoria, Texas, 1935-1978, in cfs
200,000

150,000
Qmax (cfs)

100,000

50,000

0
1955

1965
1935

1940

1945

1950

1960

1970

1975
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144

Years with Qmax equaling or exceeding 50,000 cfs on the

Guadalupe River near Victoria, Texas, and corresponding
recurrence intervals

Exceedence year 1936 1940 1941 1942 1958 1961 1967 1972 1977 Avg
Recurrence interval
4 1 1 16 3 6 5 5 5.125
(years)

 Number of occurrences in 41-year record (between the first

and last exceedence event) = 9 events
 The recurrence intervals rang from 1 year to 16 years
 Number of recurrence intervals = number of occurrences – 1
=9–1=8
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145

There are 8 recurrence intervals covering a total period of 41

years between the first and last exceedences of 50,000 cfs, so
the return period of Qmax = 50,000 on the Guadalupe River is
approximately T = 41/8 = 5.125 years.
Thus the return period of an event of a given magnitude may be
defined as the average recurrence interval between events
equaling or exceeding a specified magnitude.
 Frequency analysis
146

The probability that Qmax in the Guadalupe River will equal or

exceed 50,000 cfs in any year is approximately:
P = 1/T = 1/5.125 = 0.195 = 19.5%
What is the probability that a T-year return period event will
occur at least once in N years?
To calculate this, first consider the situation where no T-year event
occurs in N years. This would require a sequence of N successive
“failure,” that
P (X < xT each year for N years) = (1 – 1/T)N
P (X ≥ xT at least once in N years) = 1 – (1 – 1/T)N
 Frequency analysis
147

Example:
Estimate the probability that Qmax on the Guadalupe River will
exceed 50,000 cfs at least once during the next three years!

P (X ≥ 50,000 cfs at least once during the next 3 years)

= 1 – (1 – 0.195)3 = 0.48 = 48%
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148

Example (mid-exam):
What is the quantile of annual maximum discharge of a 100-
year return period event (use the best distribution model)? What
is the meaning of this 100-year return period event?

Qmax (T = 100 years) = 377 m3/s. The probability that Qmax in

the river will equal or exceed 377 m3/s in any year is
approximately P = 1/T = 1/100 = 0.01 = 1%
 Frequency analysis
149

Example (mid-exam):
The probability that Qmax on the river will exceed 377 m3/s at
least once during the next 100 years:

P (X ≥ 377 m3/s at least once during the next 100 years)

= 1 – (1 – 0.01)100 = 0.63 = 63%