WEBINAR

Impact of COVID-19
crisis on inbound air
travel to Europe
April 15, 2020
 ForwardKeys has data that captures and reflects the entire traveller journey

Searching Offer Incident impact Future

Flight Searches Seat Capacity Bookings & Tickets Total Air Market
on-the-book Forecast

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Widespread declines across Europe in Q1
 Europe is the second most impacted world region in Q1, 2020

Arrivals to world regions Jan-Mar 2020*

1 January to 31 March 2020; Year-on-Year variations by region

Total Inbound
YoY Var: -38.2%

Europe
YoY Var: -36.4%

Americas
YoY Var: -26.7% Asia Pacific
YoY Var: -48.7%
Africa &
Middle East
YoY Var: -29.0%

* excluding domestic

Arrivals from 1 January to 31 March Only considered pax staying

Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.
2020 vs same period in 2019. 1 to 21 nights at destinations.
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 Long-haul arrivals decline across all European sub-regions

Arrivals to European regions Jan-Mar 2020*

1 January to 31 March 2020; Market shares by region and Year-on-Year variations

Central &
Northern Eastern
Europe Europe
YoY Var: -33.9% YoY Var: -40.7%
Share: 21% Share: 7%

Western Southern
Europe Europe
YoY Var: -39.7% YoY Var: -38.2%
Share: 32% Share: 40%

* excluding domestic
Arrivals from 1 January to 31 March Only considered pax staying
Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.
2020 vs same period in 2019. 1 to 21 nights at destinations.
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 Top 10 European markets – Italy with the most declines

Top 10 European destination countries for long-haul* travellers Q1 2020

YoY % var % Share

United Kingdom -32.3% 15.3%

France -37.3% 13.5%
Spain -34.6% 12.1%
Italy -48.0% 9.7%
Germany -44.8% 9.1%
Turkey -34.9% 8.8%
Netherlands -37.6% 3.7%
Portugal -21.8% 3.6%
Switzerland -35.5% 3.6%
Russia -43.5% 1.9%

* Only excludes Intereuropean travel

Arrivals from 1 January to 31 March Only considered pax staying

Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.
2020 vs same period in 2019. 1 to 21 nights at destinations.
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 Future travel bookings to Europe plummet by 75.9% from January

Bookings made for International travel to Europe by departure region

6 January to 12 April, Year on Year variations

6 Jan 13 Jan 20 Jan 27 Jan 3 Feb 10 Feb 17 Feb 24 Feb 2 Mar 9 Mar 16 Mar 23 Mar 30 Mar 6 Apr Bookings made in Q1*
YoY % change

0.0% Asia Pacific -104.9%

Europe -71.0%
-50.0%

Americas -86.7%
-100.0%
More cancellations Africa &
than new bookings -69.5%
Middle East
-150.0%
Total Global -80.5%
Introduction of travel
restrictions in China *Bookings made from 6 January to 12 April
-200.0%
Lombardy COVID-19
outbreak

-250.0%

Booking made from 6 January to 12 April 2020 vs

Only considered pax staying 1 to 21 nights at destinations. Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.
same period in 2019 for future travel at any time.
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 The Lombardy outbreak halts new bookings to Italy and Europe

Bookings made for arrivals to Europe & Italy from worldwide destinations
20 January to 29 February 2020; Year-on-Year variations
250%

200% 1100
First two COVID19 cases in Italy
150%

100% 600

COVID19 confirmed cases Italy

Year-on-Year variations

50%
100
0%

-50%
-400
-100%
More cancellations than new bookings

-150%
-900
-200%

-250% -1400
1-Feb
2-Feb
3-Feb
4-Feb
5-Feb
6-Feb
7-Feb
8-Feb
9-Feb
20-Jan
21-Jan
22-Jan
23-Jan
24-Jan
25-Jan
26-Jan
27-Jan
28-Jan
29-Jan
30-Jan
31-Jan

10-Feb
11-Feb
12-Feb
13-Feb
14-Feb
15-Feb
16-Feb
17-Feb
18-Feb
19-Feb
20-Feb
21-Feb
22-Feb
23-Feb
24-Feb
25-Feb
26-Feb
27-Feb
28-Feb
29-Feb
Italy Europe Covid19 confirmed cases in Italy

Arrivals from 20 January to 29 February Only considered pax staying

Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.
2020 vs same period on previous year. 1 to 21 nights at destinations.
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 The whole of Europe shares similar trend

Bookings made for International travel to Europe by arrival region

6 January to 12 April, Year on Year variations

6 Jan 13 Jan 20 Jan 27 Jan 3 Feb 10 Feb 17 Feb 24 Feb 2 Mar 9 Mar 16 Mar 23 Mar 30 Mar 6 Apr
50.0%
Bookings made in Q1*
YoY % change
0.0%
Southern Europe -82.9%

-50.0%
Western Europe -79.1%

-100.0% Northern Europe -78.6%

More cancellations
than new bookings
Central &
-79.3%
-150.0% Eastern Europe

Introduction of travel Total Europe -80.5%

restrictions in China
-200.0%
Lombardy COVID-19 *Bookings made from 6 January to 12 April
outbreak

-250.0%

Booking made from 6 January to 12 April 2020 vs

Only considered pax staying 1 to 21 nights at destinations. Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.
same period in 2019 for future travel at any time.
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 Air capacity continues its downward spiral

Seat Capacity evolution for Worldwide travel from

January 2020 Year-to-Date vs the same period in 2019
50

45

40

35

30

25
Millions of seats

20

15

10

2020 2019

**The air capacity seats are reported as per the data parameters listed above. They may differ due to the quick changing developments within the aviation sector, including unreported or unfiled seat
numbers by airline operators.**

Air Capacity for flight dates between 01 Jan – 19 Apr 2020 vs

Source:
same period in 2019, for Worldwide travel*, as of 14 Apr 2020.
ForwardKeys &
*(Excluding domestic)
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 Europe locks its borders

The current state of travel restrictions in Europe

No restrictions

Visa restrictions

Flight suspension

Partial border closure

Complete border closure

Source: IATA Timatic & British Foreign and Commonwealth Office. Data as per 14 April 2020.

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Outlook
 All top European destinations show similar outlook for the Summer

Top 10 European destination countries for long-haul travellers – June, July & August 2020

YoY % var % Share

Italy -57.5% 14.0%

United Kingdom -54.7% 14.0%
France -54.0% 10.5%
Spain -56.7% 8.4%
Germany -53.5% 6.7%
Russia -42.6% 5.0%
Greece -47.7% 4.2%
Netherlands -52.8% 4.2%
Portugal -50.7% 3.5%
Ireland -42.6% 3.4%
* Only excludes Intereuropean travel

Bookings confirmed as 12 April 2020 vs same period last year,

Only considered pax staying 1 to 21 nights at destinations. Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.
for travel in June – August 2020 vs travel in June – August 2019.
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 The silver lining for Europe - Most bookings for the Summer are made in May- July

Long haul flight bookings to Europe for travel in June, July and August

More cancellations than bookings

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

2019-20 2018-19

Bookings made from 1 June 2019 to 31 March 2020 vs same period last
Only considered pax staying 1 to 21 nights at destinations. Source: ForwardKeys air reservation data.
year, for travel in June – August 2020 vs travel in June – August 2019.
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 Italians appetite for travel persists despite being in quarantine!

Breakdown of flight searches from Italy performed in March for a departure in…

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Q2 Q3 Q4

2020 2019

Flight searches from 1 to 31 March Only considered pax staying

Source: ForwardKeys Flight Search data.
2020 vs same period in 2019. 1 to 21 nights at destinations.
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 It is time to be data-driven

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 GET IN CONTACT!

Olivier Ponti
Vice-President Insights

+34 658 80 06 24

olivier.ponti@forwardkeys.com

Check out the latest fresh analysis at www.forwardkeys.com