CSP 320 Pemodelan Sistem

Pertemuan 6

CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM 2

Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)

□ Represent the feedback structure of systems
□ Capture
■ The hypotheses about the causes of dynamics
■ The important feedbacks

Augmenting CLD 1 (Labeling Link Polarity)

□ Signing: Add a ‘+’ or a ‘–’ sign at each arrowhead to convey more information
□ A ‘+’ is used if the cause increase, the effect increases and if the cause decrease, the effect
decreases
□ A ‘-’ is used if the cause increases, the effect decreases and if the cause decreases, the effect
increases
Augmenting CLD 2
(Determining Loop Polarity)
□ Positive feedback loops
■ Have an even number of ‘–’ signs
■ Some quantity increase, a “snowball” effect takes
over and that quantity continues to increase
■ The “snowball” effect can also work in reverse
■ Generate behaviors of growth, amplify, deviation, and
reinforce
■ Notation: place symbol in the center of the loop
□ Negative feedback loops
■ Have an odd number of “–” signs
■ Tend to produce “stable”, “balance”, “equilibrium” and
“goal-seeking” behavior over time

■ Notation: place symbol in the center of the loop

CLD with Positive Feedback Loop
□ Salary ! Performance, Performance ! Salary

CLD with Negative Feedback Loop

Tired  Sleep, Sleep  Tired

Loop Dominance
□ There are systems which have more than one feedback loop within them
□ A particular loop in a system of more than one loop is most responsible for the overall
behavior of that system
□ The dominating loop might shift over time
□ When a feedback loop is within another, one loop must dominate
□ Stable conditions will exist when negative loops dominate positive loops
CLD with Combined Feedback Loops
(Population Growth)

CLD with Nested Feedback Loops

(Self-Regulating Biosphere)

Evaporation  Clouds  Rain  A mount of water on earth  Evaporation  …

Exogenous Items
□ Items that affect other items in the system but are not themselves affected by anything
in the system
□ Arrows are drawn from these items but there are no arrows drawn to these items
Delays
□ Systems often respond sluggishly
□ From the example below, once the trees are planted, the harvest rate can be ‘0’ until the trees
grow enough to harvest

Contoh model penjualan mobil

Rectangles represent stocks of cars; pipes and valves represent flows between
categories (chapter 6). Arrows and polarities (+ or -) indicate causal influences:
An increase in New Car Inventory leads to an increase in Inventory Coverage (and a
decrease leads to a decrease); an increase (decrease) in Inventory Coverage causes
new car prices to decrease (increase); see chapter 5. Gray structure was not captured
in the prevailing industry mental model in which new and used car markets do not
interact.
Dynamic Hypothesis
Challenging the conventional wisdom, the team expanded the stock and flow structure
to include late model used cars. Instead of disappearing, trade-ins add to inventories
of late model used cars on dealer lots or available for auction. When
these cars are purchased, they reenter the stock of late model cars on the road. The
sum of the cars on the road and cars on dealer lots is the total stock of late model
vehicles (shown by the large rectangle in Figure 2- 1); these cars gradually age into
the population of older cars and are eventually scrapped. The model used an “aging
chain” to keep track of the cars on the road and in used car inventories by 1-year
cohorts. The aging chain (chapter 12) allowed the team to examine how the
number of 1-, 2-, and 3-year-old cars on the road and for sale changed in response
to sales.
The stock and flow perspective motivated the modeling team to ask where the
superstores got the large inventories of attractive late model cars they required.
Part of the answer was the growing quality of new cars. Stimulated by the high
quality of foreign cars, particularly the Japanese imports, all manufacturers had invested in major
quality programs. Though there was still room for improvement, by the 1990s the quality and
durability of new cars was significantly higher than in the 1980s.

But quality improvement alone could not explain the rise of the superstores.

By the time most cars are traded in they are too old to compete against new cars and are
unsuitable for the superstores. Quality improvements might even lengthen the trade-in cycle
time, reducing the supply of late model used cars.

The answer was leasing. In the early 1990s leasing was the hot new marketing tool in the
automobile industry. Leasing offered what seemed to be a sure-fire way to boost sales. Rising
quality meant the market value of 2-, 3-, and 4-year-old cars was much higher relative to new
cars than in the past. The higher the residual value at the end of a lease, the lower the lease
payments. Leases also give customers the option to buy the car when the lease expires at the
specified residual value, transferring the risk of fluctuations in the market value of used vehicles
from the customer to the carmaker. Most important to the manufacturers, typical lease terms are
2 to 4 years, stimulating sales by cutting the trade-in cycle time. Leasing increased from 4.1% of
all new car sales in 1990 to more than 22% in 1997.

From the perspective of the prevailing mental model, leasing was a boon. First, it stimulated
sales. Whenever inventories rise carmakers could increase incentives for leasing through lease
subvention. Subvention lowers lease payments by assuming higher residuals, lower interest rates,
or lower initial capitalization; typically carmakers would raise residual values above guidebook
values for used cars.

Lower lease payments boost the attractiveness of new cars and induce some people to trade their
current car for a new leased vehicle (forming the balancing Lease Incentive loop B3 in Figure 2-
1). Second, the shorter the average lease term, the shorter the trade-in time and the greater the
sales (the balancing Lease Term loop B4). If all new car buyers switched to leases with an
average term of 3 years, the trade-in cycle time would be cut in half and new car sales would
double-all else equal.

The modeling team quickly challenged the assumption that all else was equal. While a 6-year old
car is a poor substitute for a new car, a 1- to 3-year-old car with low mileage might be attractive
to many people. As the growing volume of leases expired the used car market could be flooded
with high-quality nearly new cars.

Used car prices might plummet. Some people who might have traded their current cars for new
ones opt instead for off-lease vehicles, raising the average trade-in time and returning more late
model used cars to the stock of cars on the road (the balancing Used Car Market loop, B5).
Leasing also shortens the average trade-in cycle time, raising the average quality of used cars for
sale. More people opt for off-lease vehicles instead of buying new. The average trade-in time for
the population as a whole rises, forming the balancing Used Car Quality loop, B6. Even more
interesting, the used market could feed back to affect the fraction of customers who choose to
buy their car when their lease expires. If, at lease end, used car prices are higher than the residual
value written into the lease, the customer can purchase the car below market value. The customer
retention fraction would rise. If, however,

used car prices dropped below residual values, the retention fraction would fall as more
customers turned their cars back to the lessor. The inventory of late model cars would rise and
used car prices would drop still more, in a vicious cycle, the positive (self-reinforcing) Purchase
Option loop, R1 .3.

Practice: Modeling System Dynamics

• Choose a Case Study in Different Domain
• Identify a Problem
• Create a Hypothesis (from Grounded Theory)
• Create Causal Loop Diagrams (with Description and Argumentation)
• Write Conclusion
• Submit before: 30 May 2020 (collective via class coordinator)

Sumber : Business Dynamics, John D. Sterman, McGraw-Hill, 2000