The Business Daily of the Global Aerospace and Defense Industry Since 1963
March 13, 2020
Inside:
PROGRAMS
USAF Scrambles To Acquire
G550s, Fearing Line Shutdown PAGE 2
ESA And Roscosmos Defer
Mars Exobiology Mission To 2022 PAGE 3
NASA IG Warns Of Further Artemis
Delays, Further SLS Issues PAGE 4
Lack Of NATO AGS Flights
Prompts IOC Questions PAGE 6
OPERATIONS
Dutch And Norwegians Cancel Multinational
Military Exercises PAGE 3
FUNDING & POLICY
Joint Chiefs Chairman: COVID-19
No Threat To U.S. National Security PAGE 5
TECHNOLOGY
Joby To Fly In NASA’s
UAM Grand Challenge PAGE 7
AVIATION WEEK FORECASTS
Western Tanker Aircraft In-Service Fleets
By Family 2019-2029 PAGE 8
Moving On
Alain Bellemare is stepping down as
president and CEO of Bombardier, having
overseen a radical reshaping of the
Canadian company in a bid to restore its
financial health. He will be replaced by
Eric Martel, now president and CEO of
Hydro-Quebec and a former Bombardier
executive. “With the turnaround chapter
closed, it is a natural time for me to move
on,” Bellemare said in a statement. He
joined Bombardier in 2015 and launched a
five-year turnaround plan to restore profit-
ability and reduce debt in the wake of the
heavy financial drain of developing the C
Series narrowbody airliner.
AWIN.AVIATIONWEEK.COM/AEROSPACEDAILY
Daily Briefs
UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP.’S board of directors approved previously announced
separations of CARRIER air conditioning and OTIS elevator businesses.
RAYTHEON has $109.6m U.S. Navy contract for Mk. 15 Close-In Weapon System
upgrades, conversions, system overhauls, associated hardware.
FRENCH DEFENSE MINISTRY issued request for tenders March 10 to lease up to 20
Airbus H225 helicopters to replace French Air Force SA.330B/BA Pumas.
LOCKHEED MARTIN has $65m U.S. Navy contract for combat system and engineering
support for Ship Self-Defense System.
NORTHROP GRUMMAN has $25m U.S. Air Force contract for embedded Global Posi-
tioning System/Inertial Navigation System engineering and manufacturing development.
PROGRAMS
U.S. Navy Document Likely Shows SM-6
Hypersonic Speed, Anti-Surface Role
STEVE TRIMBLE, steve.trimble@aviationweek.com
A U.S. Navy document that cryptically describes a versatile and powerful new missile
likely offers the first confirmation of the hypersonic speed and newly acquired, anti-
surface-warfare role for the Raytheon SM-6 Block 1B.
The terse reference in a written submission by Navy officials to the House Armed
Services Committee on March 11 also likely offers the first proof that the SM-6 Block
1B remains in development, even after the Navy scrubbed all references to the project
in the latest round of fiscal 2021 budget documents.
Also, written testimony submitted by James Guerts, assistant Navy secretary for
acquisition, offers the first confirmation of the service’s third hypersonic-weapon
development program, joining the anti-air Hypervelocity Projectile in development by
the Strategic Capabilities Office and the intermediate-range Conventional Prompt Strike
(CPS) program.
Under a single paragraph headlined as “Hypersonics” in Guerts’ testimony, he
describes the HVP and CPS—a 34.5-in.-dia., two-stage booster stack topped by a
hypersonic glide vehicle—and a third, unnamed and previously undisclosed hypersonic
program.
“Additional work for guidance and control as well as warhead design will yield a new
capability that provides antiair-warfare capability, including cruise missile defense, in
DOCUMENT, P. 2
1
 awin.aviationweek.com/aerospacedaily
DOCUMENT, From P. 1
support of ships [sic] self-defense, as well as anti-surface war-
fare,” Guerts’ testimony states.
A Navy spokesman declined to elaborate on that description or
identify the name of the program, citing security requirements.
The description, however, aligns with the known elements of
the SM-6 Block 1B development program. In budget documents
submitted last year for fiscal 2020, the Navy described a plan
to field the SM-6 Block 1B by fiscal 2024 with a wider, 21-in.-dia.
booster to increase the range and speed of the standard, Mach
3.5-class missile, but the documents did not say by how much.
The fiscal 2020 budget documents also mention plans to add a
new thermal protection system and update the guidance, navi-
PRIOGRAMS
USAF Scrambles To Acquire
G550s, Fearing Line Shutdown
STEVE TRIMBLE, steve.trimble@aviationweek.com
MOLLY MCMILLIN, molly.mcmillin@aviationweek.com
The U.S. Air Force is scrambling to acquire G550s to com-
plete the EC-37B Compass Call acquisition program in
advance of a possible production line shutdown, despite no
official change in Gulfstream’s outlook for the long-range
business jet.
The Air Force selected the G550 Conformal Airborne Early
Warning airframe in 2017 to rehost an electronic warfare pay-
load from a fleet of aging C-130Hs. But the service has so far
received funding to buy only the first five of 10 G550 air-
frames to be modified into the EC-37B, with a sixth requested
in the budget for fiscal 2021.
Gulfstream has not announced a schedule for shutting
down the G550 line, but a lawmaker and senior Air Force
acquisition official referred to the aircraft during a March 10
hearing as if a Gulfstream decision to terminate commercial
production had already been made.
Rep. Donald Bacon also suggested during the House
Armed Services Committee hearing the Air Force is already
discussing workarounds, such as acquiring a mixed fleet of
new and used G550s for the EC-37B.
“Now the Gulfstream production line is going to stop, and
we’re talking about buying used ones,” the Nebraska Republi-
can says.
In response during the hearing, Will Roper, assistant secre-
tary of the air force for acquisition, technology and logistics,
2
March 13, 2020
gation and control system for the SM-6 Block 1B.
Guerts’ testimony on March 10 is not the first to link the SM-6
Block 1B to the antisurface-warfare role. A presentation by the
Navy at the Surface Warfare Association’s annual conference in
January 2019 listed the SM-6 Block 1B on a chart as one of sev-
eral antisurface-warfare weapons. But Guerts’ testimony adds
a potentially important detail. He referenced a new “warhead
design” for the new hypersonic weapon, addressing a flaw of
the baseline version of the SM-6 for an anti-surface application.
The warhead on the baseline SM-6 weighs only 140 lb., a mass
the Congressional Budget Office cited as inadequate against a
modern combat ship.
did not dispute Bacon’s characterization of the G550 airframe
supply problem.
“We understand that having a line shut down means we
need to think creatively about how we can bring aircraft to
bear,” Roper says.
In addition to buying used aircraft, Roper hinted that anoth-
er option is to buy more airframes before the production line
closes to perhaps keep them in storage until modification
funds becomes available.
“We are working many options to try to accelerate how
quickly we can deliver the capability,” Roper says. “We’re in
discussions with the vendors, and so those aren’t things that I
can share publicly.”
Gulfstream is transitioning large cabin business jet produc-
tion to a new line of G500 and G600 jets. The company has
announced no firm timetable for closing G550 production, but
doesn’t commit to continuing production beyond the next two
years.
“Gulfstream is committed to supporting the Gulfstream
G550 program, with manufacturing and customer deliveries
scheduled into 2021,” a spokeswoman tells Aerospace DAILY.
Aviation consultant Rolland Vincent is forecasting an end
of G550 production in 2022. That’s an estimate only, he says.
Gulfstream has not announced a date, but it has discussed a
“wind down” of production.
It is working to secure special mission sales to keep the
line moving, Vincent says. “As far as I can tell, they haven’t
been overly successful,” he says.
Gulfstream will keep the line open if it gets orders, he says.
More than 600 G550s are in service.
 awin.aviationweek.com/aerospacedaily
PRIOGRAMS
ESA And Roscosmos Defer
Mars Exobiology Mission To 2022
THIERRY DUBOIS, thierry.dubois@aviationweek.com
LYON, France—The European Space Agency (ESA) and its
Russian counterpart, Roscosmos, have postponed their joint
ExoMars 2020 mission to 2022 after it appeared the full test
program could not be conducted before this summer’s launch
window.
A new window is foreseen between August and October of
2022, instead of July 26-Aug. 11 of this year. As a result, landing
on Mars now is predicted for April-June 2023. The ExoMars
mission will look for signs of past life on Mars, digging two feet
into Martian soil to collect and analyze samples.
ESA and Roscosmos have been struggling with the program’s
schedule for months. The main issue has been the need to rede-
sign the descent module’s (DM) parachutes. A second problem
emerged more recently: glitches in four of the DM’s electronic
units.
“Four electronic units were returned to the supplier . . . after
we observed malfunctions during testing,” ESA Director General
Jan Woerner said during a webcast press conference March 12.
Meanwhile, the last phase in the parachutes’ trials was de-
layed by a few weeks, Woerner said. Two high-altitude drop tests
were planned for March at a NASA facility in Oregon but faced
unspecified “competing priorities” there. It is hoped the evalua-
tions will validate a partial redesign at extraction-system level.
Compounding the problem has been the COVID-19 pandemic,
which recently prevented team members from traveling between
ESA and Roscosmos sites, Woerner noted.
Nevertheless, all flight hardware needed for the launch has
OPERATIONS
Dutch And Norwegians Cancel
Multinational Military Exercises
TONY OSBORNE, tony.osborne@aviationweek.com
The Netherlands has canceled a major multinational air exercise
as authorities there attempt to contain the spread of COVID-19.
The annual Frisian Flag exercise, planned to take place from
March 23 to April 3 at Leeuwarden, would have seen participa-
tion of fighter squadrons from Finland, France, Germany, Poland,
Portugal, Switzerland and U.S. Air Force units based in Europe.
However, the Dutch ministry of defense decided that with
the exercise requiring support from other military units based
across the country, there would have been an increased risk of
3
March 13, 2020
been integrated into the spacecraft. The Kazachok landing
platform in Russia is fully equipped with its 13 scientific instru-
ments. The Rosalind Franklin rover with its nine instruments
recently passed final thermal and vacuum tests in France, while
repair of a minor debonding on the solar arrays is underway in
Turin, Italy.
The descent module has been undergoing propulsion system
qualification, including hot-fire testing, during the past month in
Russia. Environmental testing of the DM and landing platform
is underway in Cannes, France. ESA and Roscosmos are now
targeting full readiness by year-end.
Some engineers already are changing their focus to system
storage. Areas of special attention include lubrication of the
onboard “analytical laboratory drawer,” which uses a carousel to
distribute pulverized material to instruments.
Despite the extra time available, ESA has no plans for design
improvements. “The instrument suite was carefully developed
and the rover is complete,” said Dave Parker, ESA’s director of
human and robotic exploration.
The Trace Gas Orbiter, part of the first part of the ExoMars
mission in 2016, will be used as a communications relay, as
planned. “It is in good health and has enough fuel,” Woerner
reported.
ESA has yet to assess the extra cost generated by the delay.
Members-states were promised they would not face an addition-
al bill, Woerner said, adding: “We have some contingency, and
the mission is part of a large exploration envelope.”
ESA is confident ExoMars will enable substantial scientific
progress. Meanwhile, for the European and Russian space
industry, the program means evolving into more complex vehicle
designs.
spreading the coronavirus. Officials said the military still may be
needed for other missions, so it is “not possible to provide the
necessary support for the exercise.”
The decision, made March 12, came a day after Norwegian
authorities canceled the multinational exercise Cold Response
planned for the north of their country. Officials were concerned
that any outbreak among the 14,000 participating troops could
have created a heavy burden for the regional health-care system.
There were also concerns about maintaining capability, particu-
larly for civil contingency missions.
Dutch officials also have confirmed that personnel will no lon-
ger take part in a helicopter weapon instructors course planned
for Germany. The exercise has been postponed.
 awin.aviationweek.com/aerospacedaily
PRIOGRAMS
NASA IG Warns Of Artemis
Delays, Further SLS Issues
MARK CARREAU, mark.carreau@gmail.com
Ongoing problems with NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS)
may delay efforts to return to the Moon with human explorers
by late 2024, as preparation for missions to Mars with astro-
nauts in the 2030s, according to the latest assessment from
the agency’s inspector general (IG).
The SLS program can expect continued and expensive delays
due to persistent program management, technical and contractor
performance issues, the IG said.
So far, those issues—which date back to a 2010 NASA authori-
zation bill that directed the agency to proceed with SLS and Orion
crew-capsule development after the Obama White House canceled
the previous administration’s Constellation lunar initiative—have
affected SLS core and upper-stage development, along with adap-
tation of shuttle-era RS-25 rocket engines and solid rocket boosters
for the core stage.
Currently, NASA is preparing the SLS core stage for a full-du-
ration ground test-firing known as a Green Run on a test stand at
NASA’s Stennis Space Center in Mississippi by year-end.
If the test is successful, the core-stage hardware is to move on
to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida for integration with the
upper stage, twin boosters and Orion for Artemis I, which would
be an uncrewed, multi-week test flight of the integrated spacecraft
around the Moon and back to Earth for an ocean splashdown and
recovery.
“Since each of these are first-time events, further delays in the
current Artemis I launch date of November 2020 are likely,” says
the 57-page audit, “NASA’s Management of Space Launch System
Program Costs and Contracts,” released March 10.
Since 2011 the projected SLS development costs have risen to
$18.3 billion from $9.5 billion.
Artemis 1 currently is slated for late 2020 but is expected to
slip to next spring. Artemis 2 is planned for October 2023. It’s the
human lunar-orbit precursor to Artemis 3, the 2024 human lunar
south-pole landing that the White House called for in March 2019.
Three contractors are heading development of major SLS ele-
ments:
• Boeing, the SLS and its initial interim cryogenic propulsion upper
stage.
• Aerojet Rocketdyne, the liquid oxygen/hydrogen RS-25 core-stage
engines.
• Northrop Grumman, the twin shuttle-derived solid-rocket boost-
ers that will attach to the SLS core.
Each has experienced cost and schedule issues, the IG noted,
4
March 13, 2020
although these setbacks could lead to production efficiencies if the
contractors apply lessons learned and are more transparent.
“In partnership with NASA, Boeing is building the only rocket
capable of safely and efficiently delivering humans and necessary
hardware back to the Moon, and far beyond,” Boeing said in a
response to the report. “Such an undertaking has certainly had its
cost and schedule challenges over the years, but the investment
has paid off in bringing together the required talent, technology
and tooling to build this unprecedented deep-space rocket. The
hard-earned experience acquired during initial SLS development is
resulting in significant savings and efficiencies in subsequent de-
velopment and production. We’re committed to supporting NASA’s
vision to having boots on the moon by 2024.”
As a remedy, the IG issued a handful of recommendations to
NASA leadership to improve execution and oversight of work going
forward.
“While we acknowledge that NASA does track total SLS program
costs through its annual budget process, without transparent and
accurate reporting on its cost commitments it will be difficult for
the agency, Congress and external stakeholders to make informed
decisions about the future of the human spaceflight program,” the
audit report stressed.
The IG made five recommendations to NASA leadership:
• Notify Congress the SLS program has exceeded its baseline
commitments for cost and schedule by at least 30%, or 43% or
more if the Artemis 1 launch moves beyond November 2020.
• Review NASA Human Exploration and Operations Mission
Directorate and other program management policies, procedures
and baseline reporting processes to provide greater visibility into
current, future and overall SLS cost and schedule estimates and
other human spaceflight initiatives.
• For acquisition of future SLS deliverables, develop a cost-ac-
counting model that assigns each one its own contract line-item
numbers in order to track costs, performance and award fees.
• Ensure NASA on-site personnel assigned to major award-fee
contractors are clearly told to monitor and report on performance.
• Thoroughly review each contract’s scope and the technical
requirements needed to complete the performance period to help
eliminate incremental cost increases and lessen the contract man-
agement burden.
NASA Associate Administrator for Human Exploration and Oper-
ations Douglas Loverro and acting Deputy Associate Administrator
for Exploration Systems Thomas Whitmeyer have agreed to each
recommendation, pledging concurrence by Sept. 30.
However, the IG noted NASA’s overall response remains unre-
solved about assigned contract line-item numbers. While NASA is
NASA, P. 6
 awin.aviationweek.com/aerospacedaily March 13, 2020

FUNDING & POLICY

Staff
Joint Chiefs Chairman: COVID-19
EDITORIAL
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Assistant Editor Andy Savoie mainland Europe for 30 days, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said COVID-19 is
Editorial Director Joseph C. Anselmo
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Military Program Analyst Mathew Jouppi COVID-19 acts like other coronaviruses, it will “burn off in the next couple of months.”
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 awin.aviationweek.com/aerospacedaily
PROGRAMS
Lack Of NATO AGS Flights
Prompts IOC Questions
TONY OSBORNE, tony.osborne@aviationweek.com
NATO says it still expects initial operating capability (IOC) for the
Alliance Ground Surveillance (AGS) system this year, even though
there have been no flights of its parent Northrop Grumman RQ-4D
Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system since delivery.
Two of the five planned RQ-4s were delivered to the NATO AGS
Force at Sigonella, Sicily—one each in November and December—
following the platform’s certification by host-nation Italy.
At least two verification flights were planned for January, but
Aerospace DAILY understands no RQ-4 flights have taken place
from Sigonella. This has not been confirmed by NATO.
“Our experts are now working with industry and all stakeholders
in order to ensure that the delivery of the Alliance Ground Surveil-
lance program is completed as early as possible,” NATO officials
said in an e-mailed statement.
PROGRAMS
Longview Flies Upgraded
Viking CL-415EAF Waterbomber
GRAHAM WARWICK, graham.warwick@aviationweek.com
Canada’s Longview Aviation Services (LAS) has flown the first
Canadair CL-215 amphibious aircraft upgraded to CL-415EAF
Enhanced Aerial Firefighter configuration.
The aircraft is the first of six ordered by launch customer Bridger
Aerospace of Bozeman, Montana.
The CL-415EAF is a collaboration between LAS and Viking Air,
both subsidiaries of Longview Aviation Capital. The aircraft has
been modified in cooperation with Cascade Aerospace, which
was awarded a contract in 2018 to modify the first aircraft using a
Viking-supplied conversion kit and to train LAS personnel.
The aircraft made its first flight from Cascade’s facility in Abbots-
ford, British Columbia, on March 10 and is scheduled for delivery
to Bridger in April, before the start of the 2020 North American fire
season.
NASA, From P. 4
on board with the recommendation regarding Boeing’s production
of SLS core and upper-stage elements, the agency has yet to ad-
COVID-19, From P. 5
Navy
The Navy has issued new port-call guidance for ships operating in
the Pacific in light of COVID-19. All ships traversing the Asia-Pacific
6
March 13, 2020
They said the AGS is undergoing “system-level” tests at
Sigonella and making “measurable progress,” but did not elab-
orate. “The AGS system will be handed over to the NATO AGS
Force once it has met its contractual and regulatory require-
ments. Initial operational capability is expected later this year,”
officials added.
Under the $1.5 billion program funded by 15 of NATO’s 29
members, the Global Hawk has been adapted to carry the
Multi-Platform-Radar Technology Insertion Program sensor.
However, the program already has been delayed because of
the certification challenges associated with the Global Hawk
platform, and there have been disputes over sensor perfor-
mance requirements.
Italy granted the RQ-4D platform a limited military-type certif-
icate in October, making the AGS aircraft the only Global Hawk
model so far to have a military certification.
NATO had hopes to achieve IOC by the first half of 2020 and
full operational capability within three years.
The Viking CL-415EAF is upgraded with Collins Pro Line Fu-
sion integrated avionics and the same Pratt & Whitney PW123AF
turboprops used on the Bombardier 415 waterbomber. Longview
acquired the out-of-production CL-215, CL-215T and 415 business
from Bombardier in 2016.
The upgraded CL-415EAF also has increased retardant capacity
and a two-door water-drop system for faster delivery, a zero-time
airframe and a “new aircraft” factory-supported warranty, LAS says.
All obsolete components are replaced and the upgraded aircraft
has no present life limit, it adds.
With Viking supporting the in-service fleet, Longview says the
upgrade program is part of a staged approach under which the CL-
145EAF upgrade provides the basis for proposed production of the
next-generation CL-515 fireflighting and multipurpose amphibian.
Through its Viking Air and newly recreated De Havilland Aircraft
of Canada subsidiaries, Longview owns the rights to the former
Canadair and de Havilland Canada piston and turboprop aircraft
designs previously owned by Bombardier.
dress the issue with regard to acquisition of solid-rocket boosters
and RS-25 engines, according to the report.
must remain at sea for 14 days after stopping in any country there
before pulling into port in another nation. During the 14-day period,
sailors should be monitored between port calls, thhe service said.
 awin.aviationweek.com/aerospacedaily
TECHNOLOGY
Joby To Fly In NASA’s
UAM Grand Challenge
GRAHAM WARWICK, graham.warwick@aviationweek.com
Startup Joby Aviation will be the only electric vertical-take-
off-and-landing (eVTOL) developer to provide a vehicle for
flight testing in NASA’s urban air mobility (UAM) Grand Chal-
lenge development testing (GC-DT) event this year.
Rival eVTOL developers Bell, Boeing, NFT and Zeva will
exchange vehicle information with NASA with the intent to
participate in the first Grand Challenge (GC-1) in 2022. New
Mexico-based cybersecurity company Prodentity will also
participate in the exchange.
NASA has signed five-year Space Act Agreements with
these companies and 11 other partners that will separately
test UAM traffic management services in NASA-designed air-
space simulations demonstrating UAM operating scenarios.
Uber is one of the airspace participants.
The agency has formulated its UAM Grand Challenge as
both a proving ground for vehicles and airspace procedures
and an environment where industry and regulators can work
together to understand the requirements and develop con-
BUSINESS
GoFly Discussing Future Of
Unfinished Personal Flyer Contest
GRAHAM WARWICK, graham.warwick@aviationweek.com
The GoFly team is considering its next step after high winds on
Feb. 27-29 prevented the final fly-off between personal flying
devices competing for a $1 million grand prize.
Offering a total of $2 million in awards, the Boeing-sponsored
GoFly Prize was launched to catalyze the development of per-
sonal vertical-takeoff-and-landing vehicles “that can be used by
anyone, anywhere.”
The event at NASA Ames Research Center’s Moffatt Field
in Mountain View, California, attracted 20 teams. Five brought
flyable vehicles that met GoFly standards and passed FAA tests
allowing them to fly.
While the fly-off had to be postponed because of winds, the
five teams competed for the $100,000 Pratt & Whitney Disruptor
Award, which went to the teTra Aviation team from Tokyo.
The winning teTra 3 has four ducted rotors, a wing and
motorcycle-style seating for the pilot. The rotors are canted to
7
March 13, 2020
sensus standards for the new market.
GC-DT will be conducted at NASA Armstrong Flight Re-
search Center on Edwards AFB in California to prove out
procedures ahead of the first Grand Challenge. The event is
limited to U.S. companies. GC-1 in 2022 will integrate aircraft
and airspace providers and be open to foreign companies.
NASA says Joby will provide a vehicle to fly in the GC-DT
and demonstrate integrated operational UAM scenarios
designed by the Grand Challenge team. GC-DT will involve
flights between Armstrong’s South Base at 2,285-ft. elevation
and a test location 15 mi. away at 2,980 ft.
The test scenarios will include noise evaluations, trajectory
planning and compliance, interoperability of aircraft and air-
space operations, and flights into simulated UAM ports. Com-
munication/navigation/surveillance contingencies and con-
strained air-to-air conflict management will be demonstrated.
NASA had hoped to secure up to three vehicle partners
for flight testing at GC-DT, but restricting participants to U.S.
companies limited the field. While Joby’s tilt-prop eVTOL is
piloted and in certification testing, other U.S. vehicles are
either autonomous, like Boeing’s PAV and Wisk’s Cora, or not
yet ready, like Bell’s Nexus and Overair’s Butterfly.
form a V so the vehicle takes off vertically on all four but, when
it transitions to forward flight, two provide propulsion and two
provide lift.
“We designed the Disruptor Award to recognize the team
that challenged the status quo, delivered unique thinking into a
complex issue and considered safety, reliability, durability and
system integration,” says Geoff Hunt, Pratt senior vice president
of engineering.
Captained by Tasuku Nakai, a doctoral student at the Universi-
ty of Tokyo, teTra was one of 10 teams to receive $20,000 prizes
in June 2018 in Phase 1 of the GoFly competition. But it was
not one of the five finalists awarded $50,000 Phase 2 prizes in
March 2019.
TeTra was still able to compete because GoFly did not restrict
the final event to its chosen finalists. As a result, vehicles from
several additional teams, some more credible than others, were
on static display at Moffatt Field.
Unable to conduct the final fly-off as planned, GoFly says “the
team is meeting internally to discuss next steps for the Prize and
we will release updated information in the upcoming weeks.”
 awin.aviationweek.com/aerospacedaily March 13, 2020

Aviation Week Forecasts

Western Tanker Aircraft In-Service Fleets

By Family 2019-2029
AVIATION WEEK NETWORK estimates that at the start of 2020, there were 871 Western-designed aircraft performing air-refu-
eling missions. A total of 442 deliveries and 175 retirements are forecasted over the next 10 years, growing the global fleet to
1,117 by the end of 2029, for a compound annual growth rate of 2.52%. This figure includes both jet-powered tankers like the
Boeing KC-46 and aircraft like the Airbus A400M, which can refuel helicopters and slow-flying aircraft. It does not include fight-
ers capable of buddy tanking. Western Tanker Aircraft In-Service Fleets:
2019
In 2020 the global tanker market is dominated by two types, the Boeing KC-135 and the Lockheed Martin KC-130. Together,
these two types represented 71.9% of all western tanker aircraft. The 416 KC-135s made up 47.8% of the global tanker fleet,
3
395 of which were operated by the U.S. Air Force. Despite the impending retirement 3 of 53 of these aircraft in the next decade,
it will remain the world’s most common tanker through 2029, with a still-dominant4 32.5% of the global fleet. In second47.8%
place- KC-135
6
with 210 aircraft and just under one fourth of the global fleet are the KC-130
15
variants of Lockheed Martin’s ubiquitous C-130- KC-130
24.1%
transport. While the number of these aircraft will increase to 226 by 2029,
40 their relative share of the tanker market will 7.3%
decline
- A400M
48767 based KC-46 (and KC-767) will overtake the Airbus
Western Tanker Aircraft In-Service Fleets:
to 20.2% as the overall market grows. Over the next decade, Boeing’s
62 Western Tanker Aircraft In-Service7.1%
A400M for third place as twice as many KC-46s (157) will be delivered than will be A400Ms (77).
Fleets:
- KC-10

2019 5.5% - 767

2019 64 3 416 4.6% - A330 MRTT
Western Tanker
3 Aircraft In-Service Fleets: 4
3
47.8% - KC-135
1.7% - 707
3 2019 47.8% - KC-135 15
6 24.1% - KC-130
4 3 40 0.7%
7.3% - A310-300
- A400M
6 3 24.1% - KC-130 48 MRTT
47.8% - KC-135 7.1% - KC-10
15 4 62
40 6 7.3%- KC-130
24.1% - A400M 0.5%
5.5% - 767 - KC-390
15 416
48 40 7.3% - A400M 64 4.6% - A330 MRTT
62 48 7.1% - KC-10
7.1% - KC-10
Western
210 Tanker Aircraft In-Service 0.3% - 747
1.7% - 707
62
5.5% - 767
5.5% - 767 Fleets: 2019 0.3%
0.7% - L-1011
- A310-300
MRTT
64 64 416
416
4.6%
4.6% - A330
- A330 MRTTMRTT
0.5% - KC-390
1.7% - 707
1.7% - 707 0.3% - 747

Western Tanker Aircraft In-Service Fleets:

210
0.7% - A310-300
0.3% - L-1011
0.7% - A310-300
MRTT
MRTT
0.5% - KC-390
0.3% - 747
2029
210 0.5% - KC-390
0.3% - L-1011
Western Tanker
17 Aircraft In-Service Fleets:
32.5% - KC-135
210 0.3% - 747
3
3 2029
0.3% - L-1011 17 20.2% - KC-130
3 32.5% - KC-135
Western Tanker Aircraft In-Service Fleets:
3
4 3 18.4% - 767
20.2% - KC-130
15 3 363
2029 62 15
4
363
12.6%
18.4% - 767 - A400M

Western Tanker Aircraft In-Service Fleets:

75
Western Tanker Aircraft In-Service 3
17
32.5% - KC-135
62
75
12.6% - A400M
6.7% - A330 MRTT
6.7% - A330 MRTT
Fleets: 2029 3 141
2029 3
20.2% - KC-130 141 5.6% - KC-390
5.6% - KC-390
4 18.4% - 767
15 363 1.3%
1.3% - 707 - 707
62 17 12.6% - A400M
0.4% - S-2
75
3 32.5%
6.7% - KC-135
- A330 MRTT 0.4% - S-2
0.3% - 747
3141 0.3% - 747
20.2%
5.6% - KC-130
- KC-390
0.3% - L-1011
3
1.3% - 707 205
4 18.4% - 767 0.3%
0.3% - L-1011
- Others
15 363 0.4% - S-2
205
226 1.5% - Type
12.6% 0.3% - Others
62 0.3% - 747- A400M Indeterminate
75 226 1.5% - Type
6.7%
0.3% - A330 MRTT
- L-1011
205 Indeterminate
141 0.3% - Others
5.6% - KC-390
226
Source: Aviation Week Intelligence Network (AWIN) 2020 Military Fleet
1.5% - Type& MRO Forecast
Indeterminate
1.3% - 707
For more information about the 2020 Forecast and other Aviation Week data products, please see: http://pages.aviationweek.com/Forecasts
Prepared by: Daniel Urchick
0.4% - S-2
0.3% - 747
0.3% - L-1011
8
205 0.3% - Others
226 1.5% - Type