FLAT TV

Forecasting Exponential smoothing

Alpha 0.4 Forecasting

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis 45
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
40
Month 1 30 30 0 0 0 00.00%
Month 2 32 30 2 2 4 06.25% 35
Month 3 30 30.8 -0.8 0.8 0.64 02.67% 30
Month 4 39 30.48 8.52 8.52 72.5904 21.85%
Month 5 33 33.888 -0.888 0.888 0.788544 02.69% 25

Value
Month 6 34 33.5328 0.4672 0.4672 0.218276 01.37% 20
Month 7 34 33.71968 0.28032 0.28032 0.078579 00.82%
15
Month 8 38 33.83181 4.168192 4.168192 17.37382 10.97%
Month 9 36 35.49908 0.500915 0.500915 0.250916 01.39% 10
Month 10 39 35.69945 3.300549 3.300549 10.89362 08.46% 5
Month 11 30 37.01967 -7.01967 7.019671 49.27577 23.40%
Month 12 36 34.2118 1.788198 1.788198 3.197651 0.0496722 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Total 12.3177 29.73304 159.3076 84.84%
Average 1.026475 2.477754 13.27563 07.07% Time
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
Demand Forecast
SE 3.991335
Next period 34.9270814

Forecasting Exponential smoothing

Alpha 0.2 Forecasting

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis 45
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err 40
Month 1 30 30 0 0 0 00.00%
Month 2 32 30 2 2 4 06.25% 35
Month 3 30 30.4 -0.4 0.4 0.16 01.33% 30
Month 4 39 30.32 8.68 8.68 75.3424 22.26%
25
Month 5 33 32.056 0.944 0.944 0.891136 02.86%
Value

Month 6 34 32.2448 1.7552 1.7552 3.080727 05.16% 20

Month 7 34 32.59584 1.40416 1.40416 1.971665 04.13%
15
Month 8 38 32.87667 5.123328 5.123328 26.24849 13.48%
Month 9 36 33.90134 2.098662 2.098662 4.404384 05.83% 10
Month 10 39 34.32107 4.67893 4.67893 21.89239 12.00%
5
Month 11 30 35.25686 -5.25686 5.256856 27.63454 17.52%
Month 12 36 34.20548 1.794515 1.794515 3.220285 0.0498476 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Total 22.82194 34.13565 168.846 95.81%
Average 1.901828 2.844638 14.0705 07.98% Time

Bias MAD MSE MAPE

Demand Forecast
SE 4.109088
Next period 34.5643879