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The Diplomat's Senior Editor Prashanth Parameswaran Recently Spoke To Kai
The Diplomat's Senior Editor Prashanth Parameswaran Recently Spoke To Kai
The Diplomat's Senior Editor Prashanth Parameswaran Recently Spoke To Kai
demise of the Pakatan Harapan (PH) government just two years after a
historic election had brought it to power, marking the first time in history the
country’s opposition formed a government. The rise of the new Perikatan
Nasional (PN) government, led by Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, has
generated a series of broader questions about the evolution of the country’s
political and economic trajectory as Malaysia also confronts more immediate
challenges, including the global coronavirus pandemic.
As you suggest, several underlying structural factors set the stage for the
political maneuvering that ultimately brought about PH’s collapse. Two
stand out. As Steven Oliver and I argued in a recently published article, PH
achieved what its predecessors couldn’t – defeating the dominant Barisan
Nasional (BN) – in part by incorporating elements of the BN into the
coalition. Specifically, PH’s inclusion of the UMNO-clone Bersatu party and
East Malaysia-based Warisan allowed it to win seats in BN stronghold areas
that had previously been all but impenetrable to the opposition. This got PH
the votes it needed to form a government, but also left it ideologically
incoherent and unbalanced. That asymmetry was evident in the initial
cabinet formation: PKR and the DAP (the two progressive and multiethnic
parties at the core of previous Pakatan coalitions) received one cabinet
position for approximately every seven parliamentary seats they held, while
the ratio was around one to two for Bersatu and Warisan. In short, the
UMNO-splinter elements of PH were strongly over-represented, which was
reflected in many policy discussions.
PH’s electoral strategy also created a divided and incoherent vote base,
which led to bottom-up demands that seemed irreconcilable at times. Many
progressive voters expected movement towards a “new” Malaysia that was
more inclusive of racial and religious difference. This implied a leveling of
the racial hierarchy in which the Malays and other indigenous Bumiputera
are granted numerous privileges. For most conservative Malay voters,
whose support of Bersatu and Mahathir made PH’s victory possible, anything
that hinted at this kind of social transformation was deeply unpopular.
UMNO, now in partnership with the Islamist party PAS, leveraged this status
loss anxiety among Malays to great effect, regularly accusing PH of trying to
upend Malay and Muslim rights.
We can take two perspectives on the [2018] election. On one hand, the BN’s
defeat likely would not have occurred without the deep personal
unpopularity of then-Prime Minister Najib Razak and the unlikely political
reincarnation of then-92-year-old Mahathir Mohamad as an opposition
leader, inviting questions of whether the outcome was just a one-off,
unrepeatable fluke. In any case, most of the key positions within PH were
held by UMNO defectors, which made for a greater degree of continuity in
the underlying political parameters than we might assume given the
unprecedented nature of the outcome. At times, in fact, we might have been
excused for mistaking Bersatu as UMNO 3.0, and thus the 21 months of PH
rule as simply a momentary reshuffle of personnel within the grander
scheme of UMNO’s dominance of Malaysian politics.
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On the other hand, the BN’s defeat has clearly and permanently altered
Malaysian politics. For one, it demonstrates that even if the underlying
parameters of Malaysian politics are highly durable, elections can remove an
unpopular leader and shake up the system in ways that amount to a
meaningful course correction. There have also been important changes
within the state. Several PH ministers and deputy ministers brought
refreshingly new approaches to their roles, which showed pockets of
Malaysia’s vast civil service that different modes of policy engagement than
those they were accustomed to under the BN were possible. Some of the
legislation passed by PH – UNDI-18, for example, which lowered the voting
age from 21 to 18, and thereby (together with automatic voter registration)
expanded the electorate from around 15 million in 2018 to an estimated 23
million by 2023 – also fundamentally alter the dynamic of political
competition.
PN’s composition does not bode well for its stability, nor for its efficacy as a
governing entity during these tumultuous times. That is all the more
problematic because UMNO and PAS spent much of the last two years
suggesting that a Malay-unity government would address many of the ills
that befall that community. Since it cannot count on support from the
country’s progressive voters, widespread disappointment among
conservative Malays will raise alarms about the coalition’s electability come
the next election. It is exactly this kind of concern that triggers defections
and fuels leadership challenges. In short, I think chances are high that the
PN government will be short lived in the grander scheme of Malaysian
politics. Of course it is all speculative at this point, but a merger between
UMNO and Bersatu seems a likely outcome, with the coalition gradually
moving back towards the proven, albeit problematic in recent elections, BN
arrangement.
The timing does invite contrasts between the two governments, however,
which are certain to be drawn out once politics returns to a more normal
state. Malaysia’s initial responses to COVID-19, which arrived in the final
weeks of PH’s rule, were widely praised by the international community,
with the health minister – Dzulkefly Ahmad – seen as especially competent
in leading a coordinated government response. PN’s first few steps in
managing the crisis have appeared quite clunky in comparison – widely
mocked tips from the Women and Family Ministry, for example, suggested
that wives wear make-up, dress sharply, avoid nagging, and speak to their
husbands using a cartoonish “Doraemon” voice followed by a coy and
feminine laugh in order to keep their households peaceful during the
quarantine period. Another directive ambiguously stated that only household
heads – which was widely interpreted as the senior male – should make
shopping trips, leading to stories of disoriented men wandering grocery
store aisles, apparently for the first time, bringing home clusters of
lemongrass rather than the green onions they were sent out to fetch. The
comparison between the COVID-19 responses of two governments is
somewhat unfair, as the full force of the pandemic did not hit until after the
transition, when the PN’s ministers were still settling into their new roles.
And in the grander scheme of things, Malaysia’s response remains quite
competent, especially from a regional comparison. But the contrast will
nonetheless remain vivid for many voters and will further hinder the PN’s
efforts to win skeptical progressive voters to its side.
By now it is clear that COVID-19 will have a major economic impact, likely
greater than that of the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis. That crisis
fundamentally upended politics throughout the region. It led to the downfall
of the decades-long, Suharto-led, New Order era in Indonesia. It changed
Thai politics in ways that the country has not yet stabilized from more than
20 years later. And in Malaysia, it triggered the Reformasi movement that
spawned the various Pakatan coalitions, making it the ultimate origin of the
BN’s 2018 defeat. We are still in the early days of the current crisis, so it is
too early to speculate on precisely how the COVID-19-induced downturn will
affect politics, but it is a reasonable assumption that the impact in Malaysia
and throughout the region will again be profound.
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Further ahead, what are some key general signposts that you will
be looking to in order to assess the government’s performance in
the coming months and how politics may evolve up to the next
general elections, which will be held before September 2023?
This is not the first time that the Singapore government has treated migrant
workers as a threat to be contained. In 2013, an Indian migrant worker was
killed in a bus accident, reportedly causing 400 workers to react violently.
The Singapore government immediately instituted a two-day alcohol ban in
the vicinity. Today, alcohol sales are still restricted in the area, while
recreational facilities in dormitories have been built to divert migrant
workers from public spaces. COVID-19 has heightened similar anxieties over
the need to restrict migrant workers to designated spaces.
But the pandemic has also exposed a longstanding callousness toward this
population. A letter by the local NGO Transient Workers Count Too (TWC2)
pointed out the “undeniable” need for the government to announce plans to
rehouse workers to “give reassurance to the resident and non-resident
community.” The letter was prescient, appearing in the national newspaper
a week before cases first appeared in migrant dormitories. The coronavirus
has revived concerns for the health and safety of workers crammed onto the
backs of open-deck lorries, yet these concerns have been voiced for at least
10 years.
The primary risk that the pandemic poses to migrant workers is, of course,
infection itself. Dormitories usually house male construction and shipyard
workers from India and Bangladesh. Building codes indicate that workers in
these facilities need only have 4.5 square meters of “living space,” including
living quarters, dining, and toilet areas. In practice workers share showers
and sleep on bunk beds, separated from each other by less than a meter.
The WHO’s social distancing guidelines are near-impossible to achieve under
these conditions. These living conditions affect approximately 200,000
workers in purpose-built dormitories and 100,000 in “temporary dormitories”
converted from disused industrial sites.
Unlike hundreds of thousands of travelers who have flown home to wait out
the pandemic, most of Singapore’s migrant workers remain there. One
reason for this is the debt incurred by incoming migrants. Bangladeshi
migrants to Singapore pay up to S$17,000 (US$12,000) for their first job in
Singapore. This can take between one to two years to pay off, with 74
percent of Bangladeshi migrants earning less than S$25 a day. Another is
migrant families’ reliance on remittances, with nearly half of Bangladeshi
migrants providing for their families’ basic needs. Wages are hence of
utmost importance to migrants and their families.
Phone calls are a lifeline for migrant workers in difficult times. To stay in
touch with family, most migrant workers rely on WiFi where they can find it.
This, too, is a livelihood strategy that allays the costs of debt-financed
migration. However, workers in dormitories have little or no WiFi access, nor
do they have the money to top up prepaid SIM cards. In response,
TWC2 launched a SIM card campaign, aiming for S$20,000 in donations.
COVID-19 lays bare the relationships that sustain us. Around the world,
people feverishly discuss trust in government, the place of family and
friends amid crisis, and how Skype helps to weather the storm. Labor
migration turns these issues on their head: the pandemic asks migrant
workers to trust governments that are not their own, and to connect with
family members at a distance, even when access to the internet is limited.
Right now, countries all over the world are turning inward, to protect the
most vulnerable among them. Singapore too has sought to protect the
elderly and the unemployed. But Singapore’s demography is unique: one in
four members of its workforce are low-wage migrant workers, who are
exceptionally vulnerable but not citizens. Moreover, vulnerability in
coronavirus terms tends to be defined by age and immune systems. This
obscures how the pandemic worsens migrant workers’ existing
vulnerabilities to precarious work, mental health issues, and abuse. Indeed a
limited, technical definition of health seems out-of-sync with everyday life
itself. News outlets hurry to publish epidemiological models and
pharmaceutical advances, as if these offer solace. Everyday life in isolation,
sustained by being cared for and caring for others, says otherwise.
The world is facing a global health crisis, with COVID-19 confirmed cases
reaching more than 2.1 million as of April 17, with more than 147,000
deaths around the globe. Nearly every country in the world has been
affected by the virus and the Southeast Asian region is no exception.
All ASEAN members have reported cases of COVID-19 in their territory;
Thailand was the first country in the region with confirmed cases. Up to this
point, each state has implemented different regulations and mechanisms to
stop the spreading of the virus. In Jakarta, for example, the government has
imposed strict limitation for activities in the city — it has the highest number
of cases in Indonesia. Meanwhile, Singapore fines individuals not wearing
masks in public as a preventive measure.
For the last two months, ASEAN has organized collective actions to contain
the spread of the coronavirus, such as a special meeting of ASEAN
Coordinating Council on COVID-19, joint statements by ASEAN Foreign
Ministers, Economic Ministers, Defence Ministers, Health Ministers, ASEAN
Plus Three Health Ministers as well as initiative for cooperation with the
United States and European Union. On April 14, the organization conducted
an ASEAN Special Summit on COVID-19. These attempts are solid starting
points for further collaboration.
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