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IDirect Midhani StockTales Apr20
IDirect Midhani StockTales Apr20
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TALES
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Mishra Dhatu Nigam (MISDHA)
CMP: | 209 Target: | 256 (22%) Target Period: 12 -18 months BUY
April 23, 2020
On strong footing....
Mishra Dhatu Nigam (Midhani), a Mini Ratna (Category – I) company, is a
leading manufacturer of special steel, super alloys & titanium alloys catering
v
to niche end-user segment like space, defence, energy, etc. Within the
Stock Tales
overall steel market, Midhani’s area of focus is on speciality steel (nickel Particulars
based alloys and speciality alloys). These alloys are used across end user Particulars Amount
applications that require reduced weight, high strength & toughness and
Market Capitalisation (in | crore) 3,970.8
high corrosion & oxidation resistance. Despite high cost when compared to
conventional steel & alloy grades, the select products are preferred for high- Debt in | crore (FY19) 106.7
end applications (space, defence, etc) where efficiency and precision is of Cash & Cash Eq. in | crore (FY19) 198.0
prime importance. Midhani is in the business of manufacturing these high- EV (in | crore) 3,879.5
value added products wherein majority of orders executed are import 52 Week H / L (|) |278/|109
substitute. Over the years, Midhani has acquired competence to develop
Equity Capital (| crore) 187.3
and manufacture customised alloys tailor-made to suit the specific
requirements of customers for their critical applications. Face Value (|) 10.0
Oct-18
Oct-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-18
Jan-19
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
EBITDA level space sector margin are 2x defence). Higher proportion of
space sector orders being executed has aided Midhani’s margin expansion.
The space sector contribution in aggregate topline has steadily increased Midhani NSE500 Index (RHS)
from 5% in FY16 to 55% in H1FY20. Generally, as the space sector
commands higher operating margins, the higher contribution by the same Key Highlights
has aided in margin expansion (from 25.8% in FY19 to 29.2% in 9MFY20). Healthy outstanding order book of |
Valuation & Outlook 1776 crore as on January 2020,
driven by strong traction witnessed
On account of its high-end speciality product basket, Midhani distinguishes
in space sector vertical
itself from a normal steel producer. Hence, unlike a commodity company,
Midhani has not witnessed cyclicality in earnings wherein (since FY15) the Recommend BUY on stock with
company has been able to consistently report 21%+ EBITDA margins and target price of | 256
17%+ RoCE. With a healthy proportion of space sector orders in the overall
order book, we expect overall EBITDA margins to remain firm in the ~30% Research Analyst
range for the next couple of years. Going forward, in FY19-22E, we expect Dewang Sanghavi
topline, EBITDA and PAT to grow at a CAGR of 12%, 18% and 19%, dewang.sanghavi@icicisecurities.com
respectively. We value the stock at 20x FY22E EPS and arrive at a target price
of | 256. We assign a BUY rating to the stock. Key risk to our call is any
notable slowdown in space contract order inflow/execution.
Key Financial Summary
(| crore) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY19-22E CAGR ( in %)
Total Operating incme 661.7 710.8 711.4 808.7 1,004.0 12
EBITDA 190.9 183.7 209.9 240.6 301.2 18
EBITDA Margin (%) 28.8 25.8 29.5 29.8 30.0
Net Profit 131.3 130.6 156.9 178.3 217.9 19
Diluted EPS (|) 7.0 7.0 8.4 9.5 11.6
P/E 30.3 30.4 25.3 22.3 18.2
RoE (%) 16.6 15.6 17.3 17.8 19.2
RoCE (%) 19.4 17.1 18.0 19.0 21.1
s
Company Background
Mishra Dhatu Nigam (Midhani) was established in 1973, with the aim of
achieving self-reliance in research, development and supply of critical alloys
and products of national security and strategic importance. Midhani is
engaged in manufacturing a wide range of special metals and alloys. The
company’s products have superior mechanical properties and better
workability, which are essential for special applications in aerospace, power
generation, nuclear, defence and other general engineering. In 2009,
Midhani was accorded Mini Ratna (Category – I) status by the Ministry of
Defence (MoD).
The company manufactures special steel like martensitic steel, ultra-high
strength steel, austenitic steel and precipitation hardening steel. The super
alloys division manufactures three kinds of super alloys – nickel based, iron
based and cobalt based. Midhani is also the sole manufacturer of titanium
alloys in India. The company has competence in developing and
manufacturing customised alloys tailor-made to suit the specific
requirements of customers for their critical applications. Midhani has several
certifications including ISO 9001:2008 – quality management system and
AS9001 C for manufacturing and supply of metals & alloy products. The
company’s research & development (R&D) laboratory is also accredited to
the National Accreditation Board for Testing and Calibration Laboratories.
Exhibit 1: Trend in revenue (| crore) & EBITDA margin (%)
1250 30.0
28.8
25.8 25.0
1000 24.0
20.8 21.1 20.0
750
(in | crore)
15.0
(%)
500
10.0
250
5.0
647 717 773 662 711
0 0.0
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 2: Trend in sales volume (in tonnes) Exhibit 3: Trend in blended realisations (in | lakh/tonne)
7000 6150 25.0
6000 5205 19.3
20.0
(in | lakhs per tonne)
4732 4477
5000 14.6 14.9
3685 13.9 13.2
15.0
(in tonnes)
4000
3000 10.0
2000
5.0
1000
0 0.0
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research, Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Investment Rationale
Healthy traction in Isro budget augurs well for Midhani….
During FY11-20, the government’s budget allocation to Isro increased at a
healthy pace of 13% to | 13139 crore (Revised Budget of FY20). Of this, a
majority of the increase is driven by a rise in Isro’s capital expenditure (as
depicted in Exhibit 4), auguring well for speciality steel supplier like Midhani.
Over the last few years, the space segment has emerged as a key user
industry, which has aided the company’s overall financial performance.
Midhani’s space sector order book has increased from | 108 crore in FY12
to | 1280 crore in FY19.
Exhibit 4: Budget allocation towards Isro on uptrend… Main components of maraging steel are a) pure iron
(with nitrogen and oxygen concentration of less than
14000 20 ppm) mainly imported, b) nickel 18%, c) cobalt
12% and d) Molybdenum ~5%.
12000
10000
8000
(| crore)
6000
4000
2000
0
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 REFY20
Exhibit 5: Execution of space segment orders has seen Exhibit 6: …subsequently resulting in higher share of
increasing trend since FY16… contribution of space segment in overall revenue…
500 84%
40% 72% 58% 30%
250 20%
26%
12% 6% 12%
0 0%
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
1500
1000
500
0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Space 325 60 114 1280
Defence 551 226 385 184
Others 33 35 137 380
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research, The Cumulative Order book as on January 2020 is |1776 crore.
29.8 30.0
29.5
30.0 28.8
(in %)
25.8
25.0
20.0
FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
500
250
0
FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Source: Company, Reuters, ICICI Direct Research
200
150
100
50
0
FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
200
178
157
150 131 131
(in | crore)
100
50
-
FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Financial summary
Exhibit 15: Profit and loss statement | crore Exhibit 16: Cash flow statement | crore
(Year-end March) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E (Year-end March) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Total Operating Income 711 711 809 1,004 Profit/(Loss) after taxation 131 157 178 218
Growth (%) 7% 0% 14% 24% Add: Dep. & Amortization 23 27 30 39
EBITDA 184 210 241 301 Net (Inc) / dec.in Current Asset (281) (3) (126) (180)
Growth (%) -4% 14% 15% 25% Net Inc / (dec) in Current Liab. 95 43 78 95
Interest & Finance Cost 6 5 5 5 CF from Operating Actv. (32) 224 161 173
Depreciation 23 27 30 39 (Inc)/dec in Investments - - - -
Other Income 37 32 33 34 (Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets (214) (225) (200) (200)
PBT before Exceptional Items 191 210 238 291 Others - - - -
Less: Exceptional Items 0 0 0 0 CF from Investing Actv. (214) (225) (200) (200)
PBT 191 210 238 291 Inc / (Dec) in Equity Capital - - - -
Total Tax 60 53 60 73 Inc / (Dec) in Loans 14 - - -
PAT 131 157 178 218 Dividend & Dividend Tax (85) (84) (84) (84)
Growth (%) -1% 20% 14% 22% Others 336 156 102 100
EPS 7.0 8.4 9.5 11.6 CF from Financing Actv. 264 72 18 16
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Net Cash flow 18 71 (21) (11)
Opening Cash 180 198 269 248
Closing Cash 198 269 248 236
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 17: Balance sheet | crore Exhibit 18: Key ratios | crore
(Year-end March) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E (Year-end March) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Equity Capital 187 187 187 187 Per share data (|)
Reserve and Surplus 647 720 814 948 EPS 7.0 8.4 9.5 11.6
Total Shareholders funds 835 907 1001 1135 BV 44.6 48.4 53.4 60.6
Total Debt 107 107 107 107 DPS 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
Other Non-Current Liabilities 416 566 666 766 Cash Per Share 10.6 14.4 13.2 12.6
Deferred Tax Liability (net) 40 45 51 59 Operating Ratios (%)
EBITDA margins 25.8 29.5 29.8 30.0
Source of Funds 1397 1625 1826 2067 PBT margins 26.9 29.5 29.5 29.0
Net Profit margins 18.4 22.1 22.0 21.7
Gross Block - Fixed Assets 499 674 749 974 Inventory days 261 260 260 250
Accumulated Depreciation 74 101 131 170 Debtor days 181 175 175 160
Net Block 425 573 618 804 Creditor days 66 60 60 60
Capital WIP 175 225 350 325 Return Ratios (%)
Net Fixed Assets 600 798 968 1129 RoE 15.6 17.3 17.8 19.2
Investments 2 2 2 2 RoCE 17.1 18.0 19.0 21.1
Inventory 509 507 576 688 RoIC 21.6 24.6 24.5 26.1
Cash 198 269 248 236 Valuation Ratios (x)
Debtors 352 341 388 440 P/E 30.4 25.3 22.3 18.2
Loans & Advances & Other CA 105 121 130 146 EV / EBITDA 21.1 18.2 15.9 12.8
Total Current Assets 1164 1237 1342 1510 EV / Revenues 5.5 5.4 4.7 3.8
Creditors 129 117 133 165 Market Cap / Revenues 5.6 5.6 4.9 4.0
Provisions & Other CL 299 353 415 478 Price to Book Value 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.5
Total Current Liabilities 427 470 548 643 Solvency Ratios
Net Current Assets 736 767 793 866 Debt / Equity 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Other Non-current assets 59 58 62 70 Debt/EBITDA 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4
Current Ratio 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3
Application of Funds 1397 1625 1826 2067 Quick Ratio 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Annexure
• Automotive
• Automotive Trim
• Food Processing
Asutenitic Stainless Steel • Food & Beverage Equipment
• Chemical
• Process Equipment
• Pharmaceuticals
RATING RATIONALE
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stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold,
Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined
as the analysts' valuation for a stock
Buy: >15%
Hold: -5% to 15%;
Reduce: -15% to -5%;
Sell: <-15%
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Buy: >15%
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