Forecast based on a historical time serie

Date Airport Passengers Forecast (Airport Passengers)

Jan-09 2,644,539
Feb-09 2,359,800
Mar-09 2,925,918
Apr-09 3,024,973
May-09 3,177,100
Jun-09 3,419,595
Jul-09 3,649,702
Aug-09 3,650,668
Sep-09 3,191,526
Oct-09 3,249,428
Nov-09 2,971,484
Dec-09 3,074,209
Jan-10 2,785,466
Feb-10 2,515,361
Mar-10 3,105,958
Apr-10 3,139,059
May-10 3,380,355
Jun-10 3,612,886
Jul-10 3,765,824
Aug-10 3,771,842
Sep-10 3,356,365
Oct-10 3,490,100
Nov-10 3,163,659
Dec-10 3,167,124
Jan-11 2,883,810
Feb-11 2,610,667
Mar-11 3,129,205
Apr-11 3,200,527
May-11 3,547,804
Jun-11 3,766,323
Jul-11 3,935,589
Aug-11 3,917,884
Sep-11 3,564,970
Oct-11 3,602,455
Nov-11 3,326,859
Dec-11 3,441,693
Jan-12 3,211,600
Feb-12 2,998,119
Mar-12 3,472,440
Apr-12 3,563,007
May-12 3,820,570
Jun-12 4,107,195
Jul-12 4,284,443
Aug-12 4,356,216
Sep-12 3,819,379
Oct-12 3,844,987
Nov-12 3,478,890
Dec-12 3,443,039
Jan-13 3,204,637
Feb-13 2,966,477
Mar-13 3,593,364
Apr-13 3,604,104
May-13 3,933,016
Jun-13 4,146,797
Jul-13 4,176,486
Aug-13 4,347,059
Sep-13 3,781,168 3,781,168
Oct-13 3,868,499
Nov-13 3,560,201
Dec-13 3,619,492
Jan-14 3,397,521
Feb-14 3,152,698
Mar-14 3,704,080
Apr-14 3,747,547
May-14 4,042,012
Jun-14 4,250,095
Jul-14 4,360,538
Aug-14 4,463,640
Sep-14 3,963,676
Oct-14 4,028,088
Nov-14 3,719,789
Dec-14 3,779,080
Jan-15 3,557,110
Feb-15 3,312,287
Mar-15 3,863,668
Apr-15 3,907,135
May-15 4,201,600
Jun-15 4,409,683
Jul-15 4,520,126
Aug-15 4,623,228
Sep-15 4,123,264
on a historical time series
Lower Confidence Bound (Airport Passengers) Upper Confidence Bound (Airport Passengers)
3,781,168 3,781,168
3,765,009 3,959,442
3,450,753 3,650,929
3,503,871 3,731,521
3,274,361 3,517,131
3,007,297 3,286,849
3,550,354 3,840,511
3,606,403 3,892,170
3,895,335 4,192,261
4,084,950 4,419,698
4,201,704 4,528,829
4,278,059 4,647,441
3,784,028 4,143,139
3,819,590 4,233,017
3,531,575 3,927,544
3,565,907 3,985,478
3,339,580 3,755,448
3,080,595 3,523,203
3,642,337 4,078,919
3,666,298 4,131,143
3,958,648 4,443,054
4,165,112 4,647,600
4,267,499 4,761,867
4,383,009 4,852,700
3,878,034 4,361,189
1 This example contains sample monthly
passenger data for an airport from
January 2009 - September 2013.

If you scroll down, beginning in row 61

2 you'll see how we used FORECAST.ETS
functions to calculate the forecast
passenger traffic through September
2015.
Or click the button >

There is an accompanying line chart

3 displaying forecast traffic

4 Review the FORECASTING function

reference on support.office.com by
clicking this box.
 Forecast (Airport Passengers) Lower Confidence Bound (Airport Upper Confidence Boun
C D Passengers) E Passengers)
Column C uses the FORECAST.ETS
function. See cell C61. Column D uses the Column D uses the
FORECAST.ETS.CONFINTfunction. FORECAST.ETS.CONFINTf
See cell D61. See cell E61.

For the same data and date ranges, FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY finds the seasonality detected in the data.

The FORECAST.ETS.STAT function finds a specific stat from the ETS algorithm for a given set of data and date ranges. I
this example, the 3rd argument (1) tells the function to return the Alpha parameter of the ETS algorithm. The 4th parame
can be 1 to calculate the seasonality, 0 to use no seasonality, or a positive integer to specify the length of the seasonal
pattern. In this example, it refers to J48, which is the searonality calculation (same as if you set it to 1).

Seasonality & STAT

Seasonality: 12 =FORECAST.ETS.SEASONALITY($B$4:$B$60,$A$4:$A$60,1,1)
STAT: 0.251 =FORECAST.ETS.STAT($B$4:$B$60,$A$4:$A$60,1,J48,1,1)

Forecast chart >

pper Confidence Bound (Airport
assengers)

olumn D uses the

ORECAST.ETS.CONFINTfunction.
ee cell E61.

d in the data.

data and date ranges. In

gorithm. The 4th parameter
ength of the seasonal
to 1).
Forecast based on a historical time seri
Airport Passenger Forecasti
6,000,000

5,000,000

4,000,000

3,000,000

2,000,000

1,000,000

0
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-

Airport Passengers Forecast (Airport Passengers) Lower Confidence Bound (Airport

al time series < Home

rt Passenger Forecasting

Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15

Lower Confidence Bound (Airport Passengers) Upper Confidence Bound (Airport Passengers)