March Monthly Industry Briefings | Food, beverages &

2020
other consumer goods
The most recent monthly data is yet to account for the impact of
coronavirus on sectoral output. Over the coming months the
severity of both the demand and supply shock that coronavirus
Food, beverages & other consumer goods:
has caused will be apparent in the data. However, the impact Contribution to global growth
across different consumer goods subsectors will vary. % year Other India
Eurozone Japan
6.0 USA China
Food and beverages output are indispensable. As such World
5.0 Forecast
governments across the world are allowing workers in the food
4.0
supply chain to continue working, this will lessen the impact to 3.0
the sector. Moreover, the nature of food and beverages demand 2.0
means that whilst consumers have shifted from restaurants to 1.0
grocery stores the impact on production will be limited. 0.0
-1.0
Textiles, leather & clothing is among the most exposed sectors -2.0
to the impact of coronavirus. Factory closures in China, which -3.0
2014- 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025-
accounts for almost half of global output, will continue to have 2018 Source: Oxford Economics 2029
severe global supply-chain repercussions over the coming
months. The epicenter of the outbreak, Hubei, is a major
industrial hub for clothing manufacture.

The outlook for 2020 is for a pickup in the second half of the
year, as pent-up demand, improving consumer confidence and
less restrictive global conditions support a rebound in sectoral
activity.
EU15: Food, beverages & other consumer goods Emerging countries: Food, beverages & other
output growth consumer goods output growth
% year
% year 20 Food, Beverages and Tobacco
6 Forecast
Paper and Printing Forecast
15
4 Textiles, Leather and Clothing
10
2
5
0 0
-2 -5
-4 Food, Beverages and Tobacco -10
Textiles, Leather and Clothing
-6 -15
Paper and Printing
-8 -20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: Oxford Economics Source: Oxford Economics

Food, beverages & other consumer goods: Food, beverages & other consumer goods:
Output Output 3 month moving average
3 month moving average
106
2015=100 115 2015=100

104 110

102 105

100 100

98 US 95 Germany France
Japan
96 90
Big 4 Europe

94 85 UK Italy

92 80
Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

Contact: Max Anderson | manderson@oxfordeconomics.com

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 Monthly Industry Briefings | Food, beverages &
other consumer goods
Food, beverages & tobacco: Output Printing & reproduction of recorded media:
2015=100
3 month moving average Output
% year
110
40 Germany
108 France
30 UK
106
Italy
104 20

102 10
100
0
98 US

Japan
-10
96
94 Big 4 Europe -20

92 -30
Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

Textiles: Output Textiles: New Orders

% year % year
4 15
US Japan
2 10
Italy

0 5 Germany

-2
0
-4
-5
-6
-10
-8
-15
-10 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20
Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

Textiles & clothing: Output growth Textiles & clothing: Output growth
% year 3 month moving average % year 3 month moving average
25 15
Taiwan China
10
20 Turkey Mexico Poland
5 Korea
15
0
10 -5
5 -10
0 -15

-5 -20
-25
-10
-30
-15 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20
Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

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 Monthly Industry Briefings | Food, beverages &
other consumer goods
Pulp & paper: Output Textiles & clothing: Prices
% year % year
6 3.5
3
4 US US UK Germany
2.5
2 Japan
2
0 1.5

-2 1
0.5
-4
0
-6 -0.5
-8 -1
Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

Food, beverages & tobacco: Prices Pulp, paper & printing: Prices
% year % year
8 4
UK Germany US
6 3 UK Germany US

4 2
2 1
0 0
-2 -1
-4 -2
-6 -3
Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

Industry Output - Food, beverages & other consumer goods

Value Added Index (2015=100) and year-on-year % changes, seasonally adjusted
USA Japan Germany France Italy UK
Index % change Index % change Index % change Index % change Index % change Index % change
Jan 101.6 1.3 106.0 5.2 102.7 2.8 101.5 3.9 103.8 5.0 105.2 2.5
Feb 101.7 1.4 104.0 2.1 102.4 -0.5 102.5 4.1 107.1 7.6 105.6 4.8
Mar 102.1 2.1 103.9 1.8 103.0 -0.2 100.3 2.5 104.8 1.3 108.8 7.5
Apr 101.2 0.6 103.1 1.0 102.3 0.1 101.6 2.6 103.2 0.4 105.3 4.0
May 100.9 0.8 103.0 1.6 102.4 -0.7 105.4 5.4 104.7 2.2 103.2 2.9
Jun 102.0 1.5 102.1 0.1 100.8 -2.1 101.3 1.3 104.9 1.0 103.3 1.9
Jul 101.3 0.5 102.2 0.6 101.5 -2.4 102.5 2.1 103.8 -1.4 105.1 5.3
Aug 101.4 0.5 103.8 1.6 100.0 -4.0 100.7 1.8 103.2 -2.5 103.6 2.5
Sep 101.1 0.2 102.1 0.2 99.9 -4.7 103.1 2.8 103.9 -0.5 103.7 3.1
Oct 101.1 -0.3 99.0 -5.2 101.4 -2.0 106.5 4.9 104.3 -0.3 103.8 1.0
Nov 101.2 0.0 97.9 -7.7 101.6 0.1 104.2 3.2 104.7 0.4 103.1 0.0
Dec 101.6 0.0 98.1 -6.1 99.8 -1.7 104.1 1.3 101.9 -0.1 102.1 -0.2
2020
Jan 101.3 -0.2 101.3 -4.5 100.3 -2.3 105.9 4.3 105.1 1.2 102.0 -3.0
Feb 101.6 -0.1 - - - - - - - - - -

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