TRAN 10007

Travel Demand Forecasting

Practice Assignment #1

1. A travel survey was conducted to estimate trip generation in one study area. A sample of
20 households was interviewed and the survey data are summarized in Table 1. The
forecasted number of households in the study area for a target year (e.g., 2041) is shown in
Table 2. Calculate the forecasted number of trip productions for each household type
(classified by household size and autos per household) for the target year.

Table 1: Survey Data Showing Trips per Household Size and Auto Ownership
Trips Produced Per Autos Per
Household Number Household Size
Household Household
1 5 3 0
2 4 2 0
3 8 3 1
4 6 1 0
5 5 1 0
6 9 2 2
7 14 5 2
8 5 1 1
9 8 4 1
10 7 2 1
11 12 5 2
12 11 3 2
13 13 5 2
14 8 5 1
15 7 3 1
16 10 3 2
17 6 2 1
18 11 4 2
19 5 2 1
20 12 4 2

Table 2: Forecasted Number of Households

Autos Per
Household Household
Size 2 or
0 1
more
1 150 130 20
2 120 220 70
3 110 160 150
4 20 80 170
5 or more 10 60 240

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TRAN 10007
Travel Demand Forecasting
2. Alternatively, the expected trip generation rate by a household can also be estimated using
a linear regression equation, in the form of the following:

𝑌 =𝛼+𝛽 𝑋 +𝛽 𝑋
where
𝑌 = trip rate
𝑋 = household size (5 or more = 5)
𝑋 = automobile ownership (2 or more = 2)
𝛼 = Y intercept
𝛽 = beta parameter (rate of increase) for household size
𝛽 = beta parameter (rate of increase) for automobile ownership

Using the Regression tool in Microsoft Excel, determine the alpha and beta parameters for
the equation using the information in Question #1. Once completed, calculate the
forecasted number of trip productions for each household type for the target year (e.g.,
2041) using this estimated trip rates from the regression equation and the forecasted
number of households found in Table 2.

3. The trip generation exercise in Questions #1 and #2 only apply to one zone (Zone 1) within
a four-zone study area. The socioeconomic characteristics of Zones 2, 3 and 4 are shown
in Table 3 along with the forecast population. Complete the following:
a. Using the cross-classification trip rates calculated in Question #1, determine the
forecasted number of trip productions for each zone for the target year.
b. Using the trip rates derived from the regression equation in Question #2, determine
the forecasted number of trip productions for each zone for the target year.

Table 3: Forecasted Number of Households

Zone No. of Households Household Size Autos Per Household Income
2 1,000 2 0 Low
3 2,000 3 1 Low
4 4,000 4 2 High

4. Table 4 contains the trip productions and trip attractions resulting from a trip generation
exercise of home-based work trips for four traffic analysis zones (TAZ) for the hypothetical
Region of Urbania. Balance the trip productions and attractions for the Region of Urbania.

Table 4: Home-Based Work Trips for the Region of Urbania

Zone Trip Productions Trip Attractions
1 11,243 14,000
2 2,500 21,000
3 12,400 28,000
4 39,600 7,000

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