FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

OUTLOOK Banks – Uruguay

24 April 2020
Coronavirus stunts economic recovery,
raises risks to asset quality
TABLE OF CONTENTS Summary
Summary 1 We have changed the outlook on the Uruguay banking system to negative from stable. The
Key drivers and indicators 2 lackluster growth in diverse economic sectors triggered by a drop in demand resulting from
Rating universe 3 containment measures in response to the coronavirus outbreak will dampen loan growth and
List of main measures taken by the 4 burden banks with additional provisions and compressed profitability. Despite government
Uruguayan central bank
Definition of a Banking System 4
measures to promote the stability of the financial market, we expect asset quality to weaken
Outlook given the uncertainty regarding the scope and duration of the coronavirus outbreak.
Moody's related publications 5
Operating environment will weaken as economic activity slows. For 2020, we expect
real GDP in Uruguay (Baa2 stable) to contract, before returning to moderate growth in 2021,
underpinned by the construction of the second UPM pulp plant. However, potential growth
Contacts
will likely be low in 2021 if the level of private investment remains weak. Slow economic
activity and additional spending to address the coronavirus outbreak will result in loss of
Alexandre +55.11.3043.7356
Albuquerque
revenue for the government and, consequently, will lead to fiscal deficit deterioration. Social
VP-Senior Analyst spending to support unemployment insurance resulting from the economic downturn will
alexandre.albuquerque@moodys.com also aggravate the impact of the coronavirus on the country's fiscal deficit. The economic
Farooq Khan +55.11.3043.6087 shutdown will have further negative impact on the labor market, which has been jarred by
AVP-Analyst stubbornly high unemployment over the past decade. Inflation will remain high, following
farooq.khan@moodys.com
the trend that has been in place since January 2013, often failing to remain inside the official
Soledad Stefani +54.11.5129.2628 target range. Both high inflation and unemployment will further challenge borrowers' loan
Associate Analyst
soledad.stefani@moodys.com
repayment capacity.

M. Celina Vansetti +1.212.553.4845 Asset risk will increase as rising unemployment and slower economic activity lead
MD-Banking to higher delinquencies. The central bank of Uruguay (BCU) has allowed banks to extend
celina.vansetti-hutchins@moodys.com
up to 180 days the maturity of loans outstanding as of the end of February and originated
within the first two weeks of March. Banks will not be required to classify maturity extensions
CLIENT SERVICES
as loan restructurings or renegotiations, therefore, limiting the need for additional provisions
Americas 1-212-553-1653
for operations maturing between March and August. Despite forbearance measures, we
Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077 expect asset quality to deteriorate in 2020 given the severity of the economic deceleration.
Japan 81-3-5408-4100 We expect the most deterioration in the consumer finance and small and midsized company
EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 (SME) segments, in which banks focused loan origination in 2019. Uruguayan bank exposure
to commerce and service sectors has hovered around 26% of gross loans in recent years.
Both segments will suffer directly from the shutdown in economic activity. We also
anticipate dismal loan origination and heightened credit risk from consumer financing –
19% of banks' total loans – and, eventually, the industry segment, representing 13% of total
loans. Despite these challenges, some relief will come from the expansion of the National
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Guarantee System (SiGa) by the government, with the objective of facilitating lending to SMEs by providing banks collateral of up
to 80% of loans to SMEs. The reduction of reserve requirements for deposits in pesos or inflation-indexed units has increased banks'
capacity to originate loans by about UYU14 billion ($324 million), roughly 2.4% of the total loans in the system as of February 2020. In
addition, banks reported strong reserve coverage in early 2020. However, they will likely build further loan loss provisions towards the
end of this year in the face of higher expected losses related to the coronavirus crisis.

Capital will remain stable but lower profitability will curb growth. Banks’ capitalization will remain steady relative to other
banking systems in the region. In Uruguay, banks’ capital structure is made up of predominantly Tier 1 instruments. The internal
origination of capital through earnings retention will decline because of profitability compression. However, at the same time, the
slowdown in loan disbursement will ease negative pressure on banks' capitalization.

Profitability will decelerate because of lower margins. Revenue from loan operations account for a sizable portion of Uruguayan
banks' total revenue, while fee income ranges between 10% to 15%. Consequently, we expect banks' margins to compress in the
coming quarters because of the reduction in loan growth. At the same time, the intrinsically high operating expenses of Uruguayan
banks will continue to weigh on profitability. The increase in loan loss provisions will be more accentuated the longer the coronavirus-
induced downturn persists. However, negative pressure on earnings will be offset partially by the depreciation of the peso, which results
in gains associated with banks’ holdings of dollar-denominated assets.

Cheap core funding will remain stable and liquidity high. Savers’ preference for dollars will remain high because of the peso
depreciation, which will drive local currency funding costs up as banks focus on origination of peso-denominated retail loans. Banks will
continue to invest their excess liquidity in dollar-denominated securities and foreign bank deposits.

High dollarization reduces the central bank’s ability to support banks. However, the obligations and debts of government-owned
banks Banco de la Republica Oriental del Uruguay (Baa2 stable, baa31), and Banco Hipotecario del Uruguay (Baa2/Baa2 stable, ba2)
are fully guaranteed by the government. In response to the crisis, the government offered financial institutions maturity extensions to
certain outstanding loans.

Key drivers and indicators

Exhibit 1
Overview of key drivers for Uruguay's negative banking system outlook
Operating - The coronavirus outbreak will cause an economic recession in Uruguay in 2020, with a possible rebound in 2021
Deteriorating
environment - High unemployment and inflation, along with frail business activity, will weaken borrowers' repayment capacity
Despite regulatory measures stimulating banks to renegotiate loans, asset quality will weaken in the medium-term as problem
-
loan formation increases, particularly for small and midsized companies and households
Asset risk Deteriorating Loan origination will decline with the drop in credit demand and more conservative underwriting practices, contributing to
-
negative pressure on asset quality metrics
= Initial balance of reserves mitigates asset risk partially, but additional provisions may be needed

- Internal revenue origination will decline and constrain capital growth, but lower loan growth will alleviate capital consumption
Capital Stable
+ Capital ratios will remain well above regulatory requirements and high relative to regional peers

- Loan loss provisions will increase as a result of rising credit risk, hurting profitability

Profitability Deteriorating - Weak business volume and low loan origination will compress margins

+ Peso depreciation will partially offset pressure on earnings through gains derived from banks’ dollar-denominated assets

Funding and - Depositors’ preference for dollar-denominated deposits will increase, further challenging banks to raise local currency funds
Stable
Liquidity
= Liquidity will remain high, especially in foreign currency. Liquidity boosted by recent reduction in reserve requirements
Government Government's willingness to support state-controlled banks remains unchanged. High dollarization constrains the central
Stable =
Support bank's ability to act as lender of last resort for the private banking system.
Source: Moody's Investors Service

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on
www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 24 April 2020 Banks – Uruguay: Coronavirus stunts economic recovery, raises risks to asset quality
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Exhibit 2
Aggregate key indicators for the rated banks in Uruguay
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q3 2019

SCORECARD RATIOS
Problem Loans / Gross Loans 1.87% 2.46% 3.95% 4.27% 3.95% 3.20%
Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets 14.20% 13.00% 13.10% 13.60% 15.80% 17.20%
Net Income / Tangible Assets 1.15% 1.31% 0.43% 1.36% 2.43% 2.35%
Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets 3.69% 4.84% 4.11% 2.98% 3.25% 3.99%
Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets 53.30% 52.80% 53.40% 55.00% 45.80% 48.50%
ADDITIONAL RATIOS
PPI / Average RWA 3.88% 5.01% 3.76% 3.82% 4.92% 6.08%
Net Income / Average Risk Weighted Assets 1.84% 2.27% 0.68% 1.98% 3.57% 3.44%
Cost / Income Ratio 62.00% 54.90% 60.30% 59.40% 50.50% 42.50%
Problem Loans / (Shareholders’ Equity + Loan Loss Reserves) 6.66% 8.94% 13.02% 12.09% 10.09% 7.90%
Tier 1 Ratio 13.00% 12.50% 14.70% 15.40% 16.00% 17.30%
Shareholders’ Equity / Total Assets 10.40% 9.90% 10.40% 11.80% 12.60% 12.80%

Source: Moody's Investors Service

Rating universe
We rate five banks in Uruguay, which held 79% of the banking system’s total deposits and 73% of total loans as of September 2019.
Three of those banks are foreign-owned and the other two are fully-owned by the government. We also rate one offshore bank and one
finance company in Uruguay.

The remainder of the financial system is relatively fragmented, comprising five foreign banks and a number of specialized franchises of
foreign institutions.

The rated banks’ median standalone Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) is ba1, but the median deposit rating is Baa3.

Exhibit 3
Rated Uruguayan banks
Baseline Notches of Long Term
Total assets (UYU Credit market Deposits market
Credit uplift from Deposit or
billion, as of share (as of share (as of Outlook
Assessment external Corporate
Entity name September 2019) September 2019) September 2019)
(BCA) support Family Rating
Banks
Banco de la Republica Oriental del Uruguay 631.83 28.91% 47.30% baa3 1 Baa2 STA
Banco Santander, S.A. (Uruguay) 205.60 19.53% 15.57% ba1 1 Baa3 STA
Banco Itau Uruguay S.A. 172.70 13.38% 12.46% ba1 1 Baa3 STA
Banco Hipotecario del Uruguay 67.19 9.86% 1.71% ba2 3 Baa2 STA
Citibank N.A. (Sucursal Uruguay) 19.40 0.85% 1.20% -- -- A2 STA

Off-shore Bank
Banco Patagonia (Uruguay) S.A. I.F.E. 3.49 0.001% 0.29% b1 1 Ba3 STA

Other Financial Entities

Consorcio del Uruguay S.A. 0.85 0.11% -- -- -- Ba3 STA

Source: Central Bank of Uruguay, Moody's Investors Service

3 24 April 2020 Banks – Uruguay: Coronavirus stunts economic recovery, raises risks to asset quality
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Exhibit 4 Exhibit 5
Decline in peso reserve requirement focuses on stimulating loan Problem loans will increase in 2020, particularly in commerce and
origination in local currency consumer financing
As of September 2019
Peso loans 0.5% Total system Agribusiness Commerce Industry Residential mortgage Consumer financing
1.8% 9%
6.9%
8%
4.5% 7%
3.8% Agribusiness 6%
16.9% 5%
Commerce
31.5% 10.7% 4%

Dollar loans
Construccion 3%
2%
Industry
1%
Services 0%

Dec-15

Mar-16

Dec-16

Mar-17

Mar-19
Sep-17

Dec-17

Sep-18

Jun-19
Sep-16

Dec-19
Jun-16

Jun-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Dec-18

Sep-19
23.3%
Households

75.7%
3.5%
20.8%
Source: Central Bank of Uruguay, Moody's Investors Service

Source: Central Bank of Uruguay, Moody's Investors Service

List of main measures taken by the Uruguayan central bank

Exhibit 6
Summary of measures taken by the central bank as of April 2020
Date Measure Measure objectives Amount/Scope Who should benefit the most?
Extension of loan maturities up to 180 days, including payment
of both principal and interest, exempting banks from classifying
27-Mar-20 Support credit -- All banks
loans as renegotiation or restructuring and constituting
additional provisioning
Potential credit
Reduction of reserve requirement on peso-denominated and
1-Apr-20 Increase peso liquidity expansion of UYU All banks
inflation-indexed deposits
14 billion
Potential credit
Expansion of the National Guarantee System (SiGa) to offer All banks, particularly SME
7-Apr-20 Support credit expansion of UYU
collateral to cover up to 80% of loans to SMEs lenders
2.5 billion
Source: Central Bank of Uruguay, Moody's Investors Service

Definition of a Banking System Outlook

Banking system outlooks represent our forward-looking assessment of fundamental credit conditions that will affect the creditworthiness of
banks in a given system over the next 12-18 months. As such, banking system outlooks provide our view of how the operating environment for
banks, including macroeconomic, competitive and regulatory trends, will affect asset quality, capital, funding, liquidity and profitability.

Banking system outlooks also consider our forward-looking view of the government support environment for bank creditors. Since banking
system outlooks represent our forward-looking view on credit conditions that factor into our bank ratings, a negative (positive) outlook
suggests that negative (positive) rating actions are more likely on average.

4 24 April 2020 Banks – Uruguay: Coronavirus stunts economic recovery, raises risks to asset quality
 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Moody’s related publications

Outlook

» Global Macro Outlook 2020-21: The coronavirus will cause unprecedented shock to the global economy, 25 March 2020

Sector In-Depth

» Financial Institutions – Global: Government coronavirus aid has near-term benefits, but could raise long-term risks, 30 March 2020

» Default Trends – Global: Default scenarios as coronavirus-induced economic turmoil intensifies, 27 March 2020

» Financial Institutions – Global: Coronavirus, oil shock hurt asset quality; monetary response reduces profitability, 23 March 2020

Credit opinion

» Government of Uruguay – Baa2 stable: Update following forecast change, 23 April 2020

Topic pages

» Coronavirus Credit Effects

Methodology

» Moody's Bank Rating Methodology, 25 November 2019

Endnotes
1 The bank ratings shown in this report are the bank’s deposit rating, senior unsecured debt rating (where available) and Baseline Credit Assessment.

5 24 April 2020 Banks – Uruguay: Coronavirus stunts economic recovery, raises risks to asset quality
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6 24 April 2020 Banks – Uruguay: Coronavirus stunts economic recovery, raises risks to asset quality
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CLIENT SERVICES

Americas 1-212-553-1653
Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077
Japan 81-3-5408-4100
EMEA 44-20-7772-5454

7 24 April 2020 Banks – Uruguay: Coronavirus stunts economic recovery, raises risks to asset quality