Uncertainty Ahead: The Aftermath of Coronavirus

By Matt Eilbacher April 16, 2020

What Happens Next?

The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented event in modern history. Never before

has a virus had such a pervasive impact on so many aspects of daily life. Coronavirus
has been a detrimental force across public health and safety, employment, social
interaction and more; certainly not the least of which is the United States economy.

Experts are uncertain what the future holds for the United States economy. There is
little question that the aftermath of this life-altering virus will be felt by the United States
and world economy for a long time.

In a newsletter published April 15th, Alan B. Lancz posits that an immediate, “V-shaped” recovery is
no longer a possibility. Instead, the best-case scenario for an economic revival is “U-
shaped,” referring to the gradual and prolonged timeline such a turnaround will require.

However, we are currently entering a supremely critical period that will dictate the stock
market’s ability to bounce back from this unprecedented hit. Specifically, Lancz names
the next month and a half to be this inflection point, going as far as saying that the next
45 days “may just become the most critical period in U.S. financial history.”

The timing and execution of the reopening of the economy are of paramount
importance. However, the way this process should be handled is a topic of growing
debate and contention.

A Seemingly Impossible Balance: Public Health vs. Economic Recovery

The challenge federal and state decision-makers now face is as colossal as it is

significant. How can we jumpstart the economy without threatening public safety? How
can we prevent a second wave of this virus without spiraling into economic turmoil?

These two objectives seem to be mutually exclusive, with the efforts of one completely
detracting from those of the other. As such, proposed solutions tend to stand firmly on
one extreme or the other.

On the one hand, President Trump is vehemently pushing a plan to reopen the country
and prove to the world the resilience of the United States economy, in an effort to
inspire the so-called “comeback kids” of our nation. Trump believes this can be
achieved as early as the start of May.
Supporters of President Trump’s push to reopen the economy protest social distancing and stay-at-
home orders in Lansing, Michigan in mid-April (Source: Daily Beast)

On the other, health experts radically oppose this initiative, reiterating the need to
practice social distancing and warning of the risks of opening the country before
adequate testing can be achieved or a vaccine is developed.

Needless to say, this is an extremely pivotal moment in the history of both the economy
and public safety of the United States, and it will be interesting to see how it plays out.