Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2010 Dec 17 Singapore REITs Update DBSV
2010 Dec 17 Singapore REITs Update DBSV
Singapore REITs
DBS Group Research . Equity 17 Dec 2010
www.dbsvickers.com
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
ed: JS / sa: JC
Industry Focus
Singapore REITs
Analysts
Table of Contents
Derek TAN CPA +65 6398 7966
6. Acquisitions:
game 13
Page 2
Industry Focus
Singapore REITs
1. Sreits
(FSTREI index) have outperformed developers Historical yield spread (Sreits vs 10 year Govt Bond)
(FSTREH index) YTD, offers yields of 6.1% S-REIT Yields 14.0%
+1 SD
Outperforming the developers YTD. The S-REITs’ index (FSTREI) 12.0%
Mean
has risen 8% YTD, outperforming the real estate developers’ 10.0% -1 SD
index (FSTREH, +4%) but slightly underperforming the Straits
8.0%
Times Index (FSSTI, +9.1%).
6.0%
FSTREI vs FSTREH vs STI Index (YTD)
4.0%
(X )
1.15
2.0%
F STREI index
Sreits yields at 6.1% yield, slightly below historical mean. The 1.30
Page 3
Industry Focus
Singapore REITs
(i) Earnings growth potential. As inflation is likely to inch higher (ii) Acquisitions growth potential: Industrial REITs & sponsored
to 3.2%, we prefer S-REITs that can continue to deliver REITs. In terms of acquisition possibilities, we look towards the
growing distributions with the ability to acquire earnings industrial REITs for their ability to acquire earnings accretive
accretive assets for distribution upside surprise to unitholders. assets given relative higher yields of industrial assets while
We continue to hold the view that hospitality and retail sectors sponsored REITs continue to offer long-term portfolio growth
offer a more robust outlook on the back of expected strong visibility to investors from potential asset injections in the
visitor arrivals in 2011, translating to strong earnings for medium term. We see possible acquisitions from:
hoteliers and higher retail spending. REITs that offer good
exposure to the buoyant tourism sector include CDL HT (BUY, (a) Cache (BUY, TP S$TP 1.11). Visible pipeline of quality
TP S$2.14) , Ascott REIT (BUY, TP S$1.38) while CapitaMall warehouses from sponsor CWT, low gearing level 23.4%
Trust (BUY, TP S$2.09) will benefit from stronger retail sales as empowers the trust with headroom of over S$100m firepower
Singapore largest retail landlord. to acquire. (b) Fraser Centerpoint Trust (BUY, TP S$1.70) offers
twin growth drivers from a healthy organic growth profile from
Parkway Life REIT (BUY, TP S$1.86) with its inflation- hedged its portfolio of sub-urban malls coupled with the planned
trust structure for its Singapore hospitals ensures future acquisition of recently completed Bedok Mall asset as a re-
earnings will continue to match the growth in CPI, while the rating catalyst. (c) Mapletree Logistics Trust (BUY, TP S$1.01).
trust continues to deliver on acquisitions. Its sponsor has over S$300m of assets that could be injected in
the medium term. The trust has activated its acquisition engine
in 2010 and is likely to continue to grow its portfolio in the
coming year.
CapitaMall Trust Dec 1.92 BUY 2.09 15% 9.2 10.2 10.9 4.9% 5.4% 5.7% 1.2
CapitaRetail China Trust Dec 1.21 HOLD 1.3 14% 8.3 8.4 8.6 6.8% 7.0% 7.1% 1.1
Frasers Centrepoint Trust Sep 1.44 BUY 1.74 26% 8.2 8.1 8.5 5.7% 5.6% 5.9% 1.2
Starhill Global Reit Dec 0.61 BUY 0.76 30% 3.9 4.3 4.4 6.3% 7.0% 7.1% 0.8
Suntec REIT Dec 1.50 BUY 1.66 18% 9.8 9.7 8.7 6.6% 6.5% 5.8% 0.8
Industrial
A-REIT + Mar 2.03 HOLD 2.19 15% 13.5 14.1 14.4 6.7% 7.0% 7.1% 1.3
Ascendas India Trust + Mar 0.92 HOLD 1.16 21% 6.8 7.6 8.0 7.6% 8.7% 9.4% 1.1
Mapletree Industrial Trust + Mar 1.06 BUY 1.08 15% 7.0 8.0 8.7 6.4% 7.1% 7.5% 1.2
Mapletree Logistics Trust Dec 0.93 BUY 1.01 16% 6.1 6.6 6.8 6.5% 7.1% 7.3% 1.1
Cambridge Ind Trust Dec 0.52 BUY 0.58 21% 4.9 5.0 5.1 9.4% 9.6% 9.7% 0.9
Cache Logistics Trust Dec 0.98 BUY 1.11 25% 7.8 8.3 8.6 8.2% 8.7% 9.0% 1.1
Hospitality & Healthcare
Ascott Residence Trust Dec 1.22 BUY 1.38 21% 7.4 8.1 8.3 6.2% 6.7% 6.8% 0.9
CDL Hospitality Trust Dec 2.07 BUY 2.28 18% 10.8 12.0 13.3 5.3% 5.9% 6.5% 1.4
Parkway Life Dec 1.63 BUY 1.84 18% 8.6 9.8 10.0 5.2% 6.0% 6.1% 1.2
Page 4
Industry Focus
Singapore REITs
($) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)
Office
Frasers Commercial Trust 0.17 7.3% 9.0% 4.0% 26.0% 4.0% 0.6 0.6 0.3 1.1 0.2
CapitaCommercial Trust 1.46 4.6% 5.9% 3.4% 17.0% 3.0% 1.1 0.9 0.3 1.5 0.5
K-REIT 1.41 5.5% 7.0% 4.0% 20.0% 3.0% 1.0 0.8 0.3 1.6 0.3
Retail/Mixed
CapitaMall Trust 1.92 5.4% 5.1% 1.6% 11.0% 3.0% 1.2 1.4 0.3 2.1 0.7
CapitaRetail China Trust 1.21 7.0% 6.0% 3.0% 16.0% 2.0% 1.1 0.9 0.3 3.0 0.4
Frasers Centrepoint Trust 1.44 5.6% 6.5% 2.4% 13.0% 4.0% 1.2 1.1 0.3 1.7 0.5
Starhill Global Reit 0.61 7.0% 7.5% 3.0% 17.0% 5.0% 0.8 0.8 0.2 1.1 0.3
Suntec REIT 1.50 6.5% 8.0% 3.5% 21.0% 4.0% 0.8 0.8 0.3 1.1 0.3
Industrial
A-REIT 2.03 7.0% 6.8% 1.6% 11.0% 5.0% 1.3 1.4 0.3 1.8 0.8
Ascendas India Trust 0.92 7.1% 9.4% 3.2% 17.0% 5.0% 1.2 1.1 0.3 2.5 0.5
Mapletree Industrial Trust 1.06 8.3% 7.0% na na na 1.1 1.2 na na na
Mapletree Logistics Trust 0.93 7.1% 7.0% 3.0% 16.0% 4.0% 1.1 0.9 0.3 1.4 0.4
Cambridge Ind Trust 0.52 9.6% 11.0% 6.0% 22.0% 7.0% 0.9 0.9 0.3 1.3 0.3
Cache Logistics Trust 0.98 8.7% 8.0% 0.0% 8.0% 8.0% 1.1 1.1 0.1 1.1 1.1
Hospitality
Ascott Residence Trust 1.22 6.7% 7.7% 4.2% 20.0% 3.0% 0.9 0.9 0.4 1.6 0.3
CDL Hospitality Trust 2.07 5.9% 7.4% 4.2% 18.0% 3.0% 1.4 1.1 0.4 1.8 0.4
Healthcare
Parkway Life 1.63 6.0% 6.0% 1.5% 10.0% 4.0% 1.2 0.9 0.2 1.2 0.6
Page 5
Industry Focus
Singapore REITs
500
400 (“SGREIT”) completed its acquisition of its Malaysian portfolio
300 in Jul’10.
200
100
However, we note that the impact of acquisitions is greater for
-
Topline NPI Distributable inc
the industrial REITs, compared to its retail peers, which are
Source: DBS Vickers, Company enjoying positive reversions and occupancy levels in their
portfolio and continue to grow strongly on a qoq basis.
S-REIT sector breakdown: 3Q10 vs 3Q09/2Q10
YoY Growth QoQ Growth Office REITs’ strong 19% yoy growth was largely acquisition
(%) (%) driven, coming from (i) improved performance of Frasers
Industrials Commercial Trust (“FCOT”) post its recapitalisation exercise in
Topline *7% 0% Aug 2009; and (ii) acquisition of 2 properties in Australia in
NPI *10% 0% 1H10 for K-REIT while CCT enjoyed interest savings from debt
Distributable inc *9% 2% repayment and refinancing into lower interest rates. Organic
performance however, was subdued – office rentals are
Office
starting to see narrowing reversions or negative in some cases
Topline 3% -3%
NPI 7% 1% given that Office REITs are starting to renew rents that were
Distributable inc 19% 2% signed during the peak periods in 2007-2008.
Page 6
Industry Focus
Singapore REITs
Upbeat organic growth outlook in hospitality, retail S-REITs to deliver distributable income growth of 10% in FY11;
sectors in 2011 Brighter prospects in Hospitality and Retail sectors. DBSV
projects the S-REITS sector to deliver distributable income
Delivering growing yields. REITs are typically a good investment growth of 10% in FY11. Hospitality/Healthcare REITs are
against inflation hedge as they offer rental income that can projected to deliver the strongest growth of 33% supported by
potentially outpace inflation, dividend payouts that provide underlying organic growth. Industrial REITs is next at 16% with
shareholders with a steady income stream, and exposure to a stable earnings profile and potential earnings uplift from
assets that typically hold their value in an inflationary acquisitions. This is followed by Retail REITs (+8%). Office REITs
environment. (-3%) should see topline pressure from negative rental
reversions in 2011.
Inflation set to rise. Policy makers will continue to keep an eye
on inflation in 2011. Since the rapid turnaround of Singapore’s FY11F distributable income projections by sector
economy in the beginning of 2010, CPI has risen significantly, Distributable Distributable YoY Growth
averaging 2.5%-3%, picking up slightly towards the end of the Income Income (%)
FY10F FY11F
year. Looking ahead, DBS Economist expects Singapore’s GDP Sub-Sectors S$’m S$’m**
to expand a further 7% yoy in 2011, with inflation likely to rise Industrials REITs 515.5 598.5 +16%
to 3.2%. Against this backdrop, he expects the Monetary Office REITs 339.9 338.0 -3%
Authority of Singapore (“MAS”) to maintain a strong S$ policy. Retail REITs 675.1 726.7 +8%
Hospitality,
208.9 276.9 +33%
Headline CPI inflation rate and MAS Underlying Inflation Healthcare REITs
S-REIT sector 1,749.3 1,940.0 +10%
8.0%
* For A-REIT, a-itrust: FY11F and FY12F forecast used given Mar YE
7.0%
** Inclusive of acquisition assumptions.
CPI
6.0% Source: DBS Vickers, Company
MAS Underly ing Index
5.0%
Inflation Rate (%)
Page 7
Industry Focus
Singapore REITs
Page 8
Industry Focus
Singapore REITs
Measuring the cost of Interest rate hikes High portion of S-REIT debts are fixed. Based on our estimates,
with the recent issues of fixed rate MTNs & through re-
Taking advantage of the low interest rate environment. S-REITs financing activities to date, a majority of S-REIT debt is now
have been pro-active in their capital management strategy secured in fixed-rate instruments. Therefore, this should limit
aiming towards extending their debt expiry profile and the impact of potential interest rate hikes on the S-REITs
refinancing existing debt ahead of expiry. Since the beginning distributable income in the future.
of the year, in view of the large proportion of debt expiring in
the coming 2 years, S-REITs have taken advantage of the Based on our sensitivity analysis in the table below, a 50 bps
improving capital markets and low interest rate environment increase in interest rates will have minimal impact (estimated at
and re-financed existing debt into loans with longer tenures. –0.2% to –3.2%) on S-REITs FY11 distributable income.
Additionally, they have also expanded their sources of debt
through the issue of multi-term notes & convertible bonds. Sensitivity of S-REIT distributions vs 50 bps hikes in
interest costs
The total S-REIT debt currently stands at of S$17.5bn, where Int % % Impact on
an estimated 19% (S$3.4 bn) and 24% (S$4.2bn) are Cost fixed* FY11
% Distributable
scheduled for renewal in 2011 and 2012 respectively, down by income
30% and 25% since the middle of the year. The average
length of debt expiry currently stands at 2.8 years. Frasers Commercial Trust 3.8% 80% -2.0%
CapitaCommercial Trust 3.8% 80% -1.0%
Breakdown of S-REIT Debt Maturity Profile K-REIT 3.1% 55% -3.0%
CapitaMall Trust 3.7% 91% -0.4%
>2015 2010 CapitaRetail China Trust 2.9% 74% -1.0%
4% 2% 2011 Frasers Centrepoint Trust 3.8% 90% -0.3%
2015
19% Starhill Global Reit 3.5% 100% 0.0%
16%
Suntec REIT 3.8% 65% -2.2%
A-REIT 3.9% 100% 0.0%
Ascendas India Trust 6.2% 67% -0.5%
Cambridge Industrial Trust 5.9% 100% 0.0%
2014
Mapletree Logistics Trust 2.6% 70% -1.1%
9%
Mapletree Industrial Trust 2.4% 70% -1.1%
Cache Logistics Trust 4.1% 89% -0.2%
2012 3.3% 70% -1.0%
Ascott Residence Trust
24% 3.0% 40% -0.8%
CDL Hospitality Trust
Parkway Life 3.2% - -3.2%
2013
26% * DBSV estimates
Source: Company releases, DBS Vickers Source: Company releases, DBS Vickers
Page 9
Industry Focus
Singapore REITs
Gearing Gearing Targeted LT Avg debt Int cover Debt Maturity Profile (S$’bn)
(%) limit (%) Gearing (%) cost (%) (x) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 >2015
Office
Frasers Commercial Trust 39.2% 60.0% 40.0% 3.8 2.5 0.00 0.00 0.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CapitaCommercial Trust 31.5% 60.0% 45.0% 3.8 3.8 0.00 0.67 0.71 0.23 0.00 0.30 0.00
K-REIT 39.0% 60.0% 45.0% 3.1 7.4 0.00 0.19 0.16 0.10 0.10 0.75 0.00
Total 0.00 0.86 1.70 0.33 0.10 1.05 0.00
Retail/Mixed
CapitaMall Trust 39.5% 60.0% 45.0% 3.7 3.7 0.00 0.96 0.78 0.60 0.15 0.80 0.25
CapitaRetail China Trust 34.3% 35.0% 35.0% 2.4 7.5 0.05 0.03 0.09 0.15 0.10 0.00 0.00
Frasers Centrepoint Trust 30.3% 60.0% 45.0% 3.8 4.1 0.05 0.26 0.08 0.06 0.00 0.03 0.00
Lippo-Mapletree REIT* 10.2% 35.0% 35.0% 7.7 7.8 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Starhill Global Reit 31.0% 60.0% 45.0% 3.5 4.0 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.53 0.00 0.27 0.00
Suntec REIT 40.6% 60.0% 45.0% 3.8 4.3 0.00 0.42 0.23 1.67 0.45 0.00 0.00
Total 0.09 1.67 1.35 3.00 0.70 1.09 0.25
Industrial
A-REIT 34.0% 60.0% 45.0% 3.9 4.7 0.07 0.35 0.00 0.26 0.40 0.30 0.30
Ascendas India Trust 17.0% 35.0% 35.0% 6.2 8.1 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.04 0.01 0.10 0.00
Mapletree Logistics Trust 34.5% 60.0% 45.0% 2.6 5.8 0.01 0.10 0.44 0.22 0.25 0.04 0.16
Mapletree Industrial Trust 38.1% 60.0% 45.0% 2.4 6.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.27 0.27 0.13
Cache Logistics Trust 22.5% 35.0% 35.0% 4.1 6.8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cambridge Industrial Trust 38.1% 60.0% 45.0% 6.0 3.5 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AIMS AMP Industrial Trust* 42.4% 60.0% 45.0% 5.4 4.2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.10 0.00
Total 0.09 0.46 0.86 1.10 0.93 0.80 0.59
Hospitality
Ascott Residence Trust 32.2% 60.0% 45.0% 3.3 3.6 0.02 0.31 0.17 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00
CDL Hospitality Trust 21.1% 60.0% 45.0% 5.5 7.6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total 0.02 0.31 0.17 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total S-REIT sector 34.4% 0.31 3.40 4.14 4.85 1.92 3.16 0.84
* Not covered by DBS Vickers
Source: Company releases, DBS Vickers
Page 10
Industry Focus
Singapore REITs
Acquisitions and fund raisings – Arm in arm Financial Centre (“MBFC”) for a consideration of S$1.4bn and
S$1.5bn respectively.
Acquiring up to cS$5.6bn of assets YTD in tandem with
increased fund raisings. Armed with a healthy balance sheet, Portfolio re-constitution. S-REITs (CCT, Ascott REIT, Cambridge,
and fueled by the thawing in the property markets, S-REIT K-REIT) also divested a couple of assets and in turn deployed or
managers have been aggressive in growing their asset base are waiting to deploy the proceeds into fresher assets with
since the beginning of 2010 and have completed over better potential for NPI uplift.
cS$5.6bn worth of acquisitions YTD.
Fund raisings of S$1.5bn YTD. With conducive capital market
Industrial REITs were more active in their quest for acquisitions conditions, S-REITs tapped the capital market for fresh equity
given that industrial property transactions are more bite-sized funds of up to S$1.5bn to fund acquisitions and at the same
in nature (c<S$50m on average) and transact at higher time, recapitalize their balance sheets. This resulted in average
properties yields (ranging between 6.8%-8.0%) compared to gearing levels remain relatively low at c34.4% (below most S-
other sub-sectors. However, in terms of value, they were REIT managers longer term target of 40-45%). This empowers
dwarfed by the transactions for the larger sized office and them with further financial flexibility to continue to gear up in
retail properties. the near term for any opportunistic asset purchase.
Sponsor injections took center stage. We note that asset Looking offshore for acquisitions –a trend that is likely to
injections by sponsors made up the majority of the value of the continue. We have also noted that S-REITs further expanded
assets (75%) acquired. Some of the small-mid sized overseas (CDL HT, K-REIT) where physical property yields are
acquisitions were A-REIT’s purchase of Asia Hub from Ascendas higher, more accretive to earnings and at the same time
Group for S$112m, FCT acquisitions its 2 retail properties diversifying their market exposure and earnings base.
(S$295m), Starhill Global REIT (“SGREIT”) acquisition of its
sponsors’ 2 Malaysian Malls for S$451m, and CMT’s purchase In addition, Ascendas REIT recently guided that they are
of Clarke Quay asset (S$268’m) from CMA. The large scale looking to expand their portfolio regionally after keeping their
purchases included ART’s acquisition of Ascott Group’s exposure in Singapore since listing; earnings will still remain
European portfolio for S$1.4bn, Suntec and K-REIT’s predominantly from Singapore (c80-85%) on a longer term
acquisitions of their respective sponsor stakes in Marina Bay basis.
Page 11
Industry Focus
Singapore REITs
Retail/Mixed
CapitaMall Trust 100%
CapitaRetail China Trust 100%
Frasers Centrepoint Trust 100%
Starhill Global Reit 60% 14% 6% 7% 11%
Suntec REIT 100%
Industrial
A-REIT + 100%
Ascendas India Trust + 100%
Mapletree Industrial Trust 100%
Mapletree Logistics Trust 49% 4% 25% 1% 21%
Cambridge REIT 100%
Cache Logistics Trust 100%
Hospitality
Ascott Residence Trust 19% 11% 2% 8% 7% 3% 5% 45%
CDL Hospitality Trust 85% 15%
Healthcare
Parkway Life 63% 37%
Source: DBS Vickers, various companies
Page 12
Industry Focus
Singapore REITs
Sponsored REITs ahead of the acquisition game CDL HT: A low gearing position of 21% gives debt-funded
headroom of up to S$600m (up to c40% gearing).
Current yield gaps between the physical market and implied Management remains keen to acquire Studio M hotel from
REIT valuations show that REITs in the industrial & hospitality sponsor M&C Holdings in addition to other hotel assets that
sectors, retail and healthcare have positive yield gaps, with they are understood to be looking to acquire in the region.
industrial offering the widest spreads. The office sector
continues to see negative yield spreads, which point to MLT: Its Sponsor, Mapletree Investments has assets worth up
continued need for income support arrangements so that to S$300m that are completed/completing which could be
assets will have time to stabilize and for earnings to catch up in injected in the near future.
the coming years, in order to make acquisitions accretive.
K-REIT could purchase One Financial Centre (understood to be
S-REITs implied vs property yield 63% pre-committed as of Sept’10) in the medium term once it
Property Yield* Implied Yield** completes in 2011.
Sub-Sectors (%) (%)
Industrials 7.0% - 8.5% 6.7%
Cache Logistics Trust: sponsor CWT limited has over 3m sqft of
Office 4.0% - 4.5% 5.0%
completing/completed warehouse space that could be offered
Retail 5.0 - 5.5% 5.3%
to Cache in the medium term.
Hospitality 6.5% - 7.5% 6.3%
Healthcare >7% 6.2%
Ascott REIT, who has a right of first refusal (“ROFR”) from its
sponsor, Ascott Group, could potentially acquire Ascott Raffles
* Based on yields on recent physical market transactions completed
Place, which is understood to be for sale.
** Calculated as sector’s FY11 NPI forecast / Enterprise value
Retail REITs like FCT, which had previously stated that they are
The positive outlook on asset values in Singapore boosted by
likely to purchase Bedok Mall from their sponsor after
the ample liquidity is likely to increase the competition for
completion. CMT and CRCT can potentially inject properties
assets from private funds/investors who could have a lower
that are currently under incubation by the sponsors, which
required rate of return, thus pricing REITs out of some property
could be offered to the trust. In the longer term Industrial REITs
deals. As such, we believe that S-REITs could continue to head
like A-REIT and a-itrust could also acquire projects currently
overseas in search for growth. While we believe it is a viable
under development from sponsor Ascendas Group.
option to diversify its earnings base, more importantly, REITs
have to address potential forex exposure and tax leakages for
SREITs acquisition possibilities from Sponsor
overseas acquisitions against the benefits of yield accretion to
its existing portfolio. Sponsor Pipeline Assets Completed/ Completing
asset
We continue to like the sponsored REIT model, CDL HT M&C Studio M Hotel Completed
notwithstanding that they continue to explore 3rd party Holdings
opportunities to remain ahead of peers. Their sponsors can CMT CapitaMalls ION Orchard Completed
offer a pipeline of assets for the REITs to purchase or it could Asia
act as a warehouse for new assets in cases where it is non- CRCT CapitaMalls Properties in China Completed/completing
accretive to purchase the asset at the onset, stabilize its Asia
earnings and then offer it to the REIT for purchase at a later
date. Thus, sponsored REITs have better growth visibility in the K-REIT Keppel Land Ocean Financial Completing
medium term. Centre
FCT F&N Bedok Mall (TOP Completing (TOP 4Q10)
In addition, industrial REITs are likely to continue to enjoy 4Q10) Estimated 2011
better acquisition growth potential given the relatively higher Changi Point (Est)
yields of industrial assets (vs current implied yields of industrial Ascendas Ascendas Assets in China, Completed/Completing
REITs) and each transaction tend to be of lower values REIT Group Singapore
compared to other asset classes. a-itrust Ascendas Ascendas Land Intl Cybervale (IT Park in
India Funds Chennai)
While we have seen several of these S-REITs purchasing from Cache Log CWT Limited Various warehouses Completed/Completing
their respective sponsors in 2010, we see several potential Trust in Singapore, China
opportunities that REITs could tap in 2011. MLT Mapletree Warehouses in Completed/Completing
Investments Vietnam, China
Source: DBS Vickers, various companies]
Page 13
Industry Focus
Singapore REITs
4.0% 6%
4%
2.0% 2%
0.0% 0%
J un-03 J un-04 J un-05 J un-06 J un-07 J un-08 J un-09 J un-10 J ul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 J an-09 J ul-09 Jan-10
20% 5%
15% 4%
3%
10%
2%
5% 1%
0% 0%
Sep-06 J un-07 Mar-08 Dec-08 Sep-09 J un-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10
Page 14
Industry Focus
Singapore REITs
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0% 0%
Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 J un-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10
-5%
-5%
Frasers Commercial Trust CDL Hospitality Trust
35%
20% CDL HT MAS 10 year bond Yield Spread
FCOT MAS 10 year bond Yield Spread
30% 18%
16%
25%
14%
20% 12%
10%
15%
8%
10% 6%
4%
5%
2%
0% 0%
Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10
8%
15%
6%
10%
4%
5%
2%
0%
Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 J un-10 0%
Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10
-5%
Source: DBS Vickers
Page 15
Industry Focus
Singapore REITs
12% 12%
10% 10%
8% 8%
6% 6%
4% 4%
2% 2%
0% 0%
Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10
20%
25% Suntec REIT MAS 10 year bond Yield Spread
SGREIT MAS 10 year bond Yield Spread
18%
16% 20%
14%
12% 15%
10%
8% 10%
6%
4% 5%
2%
0%
0%
Jan-05 Oct-05 J ul-06 Apr-07 J an-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Apr-10
Oct-05 Jul-06 Apr-07 Jan-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Apr-10
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
-2%
Page 16
Industry Focus
Singapore REITs
DBSV recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:
STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)
HOLD (-10 to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10 to +10% for large caps)
FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)
SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)
DBS Vickers Research is available on the following electronic platforms: DBS Vickers (www.dbsvresearch.com); Thomson
(www.thomson.com/financial); Factset (www.factset.com); Reuters (www.rbr.reuters.com); Capital IQ (www.capitaliq.com) and Bloomberg
(DBSR GO). For access, please contact your DBSV salesperson.
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This document is published by DBS Vickers Research (Singapore) Pte Ltd ("DBSVR"), a direct wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Vickers
Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd ("DBSVS") and an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Vickers Securities Holdings Pte Ltd ("DBSVH").
[This report is intended for clients of DBSV Group only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any
form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBSVR.]
The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty as
to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for
general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial
situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken
in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. DBSVR accepts no liability
whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or further communication given in relation to this
document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. DBSVH is a wholly-
owned subsidiary of DBS Bank Ltd. DBS Bank Ltd along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to
time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. DBSVR, DBSVS, DBS Bank Ltd and their associates, their directors, and/or
employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform
broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies.
The assumptions for commodities in this report are for the purpose of forecasting earnings of the companies mentioned herein. They are
not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodities or in futures contracts relating to the commodities
mentioned in this report.
DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction
as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification
on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this document should contact DBSVUSA exclusively.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the
companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of
his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. As of
17 Dec 2010, the analyst and his / her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the analyst, do not hold interests in the
securities recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities, directorships and trustee positions).
Page 17
Industry Focus
Singapore REITs
RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION
General This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or
resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication,
availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
Australia This report is being distributed in Australia by DBSVR and DBSVS, which are exempted from the requirement to
hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporation Act 2001 [“CA] in respect of financial services
provided to the recipients. DBSVR and DBSVS are regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore [“MAS”]
under the laws of Singapore, which differ from Australian laws. Distribution of this report is intended only for
“wholesale investors” within the meaning of the CA.
Hong Kong This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited which is licensed and
regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission.
Singapore This report is being distributed in Singapore by DBSVR, which holds a Financial Adviser’s licence and is regulated
by the MAS. This report may additionally be distributed in Singapore by DBSVS (Company Regn. No.
198600294G), which is an Exempt Financial Adviser as defined under the Financial Advisers Act. Any research
report produced by a foreign DBS Vickers entity, analyst or affiliate is distributed in Singapore only to
“Institutional Investors”, “Expert Investors” or “Accredited Investors” as defined in the Securities and Futures
Act, Chap. 289 of Singapore. Any distribution of research reports published by a foreign-related corporation of
DBSVR/DBSVS to “Accredited Investors” is provided pursuant to the approval by MAS of research distribution
arrangements under Paragraph 11 of the First Schedule to the FAA.
United Kingdom This report is being distributed in the UK by DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd, who is an authorised person in the
meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act and is regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Research
distributed in the UK is intended only for institutional clients.
rd
Dubai/ This report is being distributed in Dubai/United Arab Emirates by DBS Bank Ltd, Dubai (PO Box 506538, 3 Floor,
United Arab Emirates Building 3, Gate Precinct, DIFC, Dubai, United Arab Emirates) and is intended only for clients who meet the
DFSA regulatory criteria to be a Professional Client. It should not be relied upon by or distributed to Retail
Clients. DBS Bank Ltd, Dubai is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority.
United States Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be taken or distributed into the United States or to any U.S. person
except in compliance with any applicable U.S. laws and regulations.
Other jurisdictions In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is intended only for
qualified, professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such
jurisdictions.
DBS Vickers Research (Singapore) Pte Ltd – 8 Cross Street, #02-01 PWC Building, Singapore 048424
Tel. 65-6533 9688, Fax: 65-6226 8048
Company Regn. No. 198600295W
Page 18