Method 1

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Total Population 230000000 230000000 230000000 230000000 230000000
BMI<30 34% 34% 34% 34% 34%
Target Polpulation 78200000 78200000 78200000 78200000 78200000
Comfortable using
diet pills 4105500 4105500 4105500 4105500 4105500
10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
10% who might purchase
Metabical in Year 1 410550 615825 821100 1026375 1231650
60% buy the second
package 246330 369495 492660 615825 738990
20% of buy third package 49266 73899 98532 123165 147798
706146 1059219 1412292 1765365 2118438

Method 2
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Total Population 230000000 230000000 230000000 230000000 230000000
BMI<30 34% 34% 34% 34% 34%
Target Polpulation 78200000 78200000 78200000 78200000 78200000
Target Population X 12%
actively looking 9384000 9384000 9384000 9384000 9384000
10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
10% who might purchase
Metabical in Year 1 938400 1407600 1876800 2346000 2815200
60% buy the second
package 563040 844560 1126080 1407600 1689120
20% of buy third package 112608 168912 225216 281520 337824
1614048 2421072 3228096 4035120 4842144

Method 3
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Target Population X 30%
actively looking 4300000 4300000 4300000 4300000 4300000
30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
10% who might purchase
Metabical in Year 1 1290000 1505000 1720000 1935000 2150000
60% buy the second
package 774000 903000 1032000 1161000 1290000
20% of buy third package 154800 180600 206400 232200 258000
2218800 2588600 2958400 3328200 3698000

Gross Margin Forecast

75$ Retail Price Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Cum
Using Forecast Method 1 17512420.8 26268631.2 35024841.6 43781052 52537262.4 175124208
Using Forecast Method 2 40028390.4 60042585.6 80056780.8 100070976 120085171 400283904
Using Forecast Method 3 55026240 64197280 73368320 82539360 91710400 366841600

125$ Retail Price Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Using Forecast Method 1 41048267 61572400 82096534 102620667 123144801 410482669.8
Using Forecast Method 2 93824610 140736915 187649220 234561526 281473831 938246102.4
Using Forecast Method 3 128978844 150475318 171971792 193468266 214964740 859858960

150$ Retail Price Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Using Forecast Method 1 52819720.8 79229581.2 105639442 132049302 158459162 528197208
Using Forecast Method 2 120730790 181096186 241461581 301826976 362192371 1207307904
Using Forecast Method 3 165966240 193627280 221288320 248949360 276610400 1106441600
Gross Margin
24.8
58.13

74.8