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Preliminary sizing correlations for UAVs’ propulsion system

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DOI: 10.2514/6.2019-4304

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 AIAA Propulsion and Energy Forum 10.2514/6.2019-4304
19-22 August 2019, Indianapolis, IN
AIAA Propulsion and Energy 2019 Forum

Preliminary sizing correlations for UAVs’ propulsion system

Victor Alulema∗ , Esteban Valencia† , and Edgar Cando ‡

Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, 170517, Ecuador

In spite of the increasing demand of UAVs for a wide range of civil and military applications,
there is a scarce number of tools and methodologies for their initial sizing and preliminary
design. Nowadays, classical theories and sizing tools, mainly focused on transport aircraft, have
been extrapolated to the UAV design procedure. However, these tools do not always align well
to the design of UAVs because they do not consider the performance requirements, operating
conditions and geometric features of UAVs. In this context, this work presents a series of corre-
lations for preliminary sizing of propulsion systems for different UAV architectures. For this,
a structured database with technical data from off-the-shelf components has been developed,
the data collected have been categorized systematically to enable a statistical data analysis.
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This study focuses on electric-based systems addressing a series of propulsive and power tech-
nologies ranging from electric ducted fans to Li-Po batteries. The present correlations will
enable to determine, at preliminary design stage, the main features of a propulsion system such
as: weight, basic geometry, energy consumption, among others depending on the propulsion
system type. A remarkable feature of these correlations is their simple/fast implementation
and coupling with other UAV design tools. The applicability of the present correlations suits
multiple UAV categories including micro, small, and MALE UAVs. The main contribution
of this work is to set a series of correlations for the preliminary sizing of electric propulsion
systems, specifically derived for UAVs.

I. Nomenclature

A = Regression coefficient
B = Regression coefficient
C = Cell o battery capacity
D = Diameter
FC = Fuel consumption
kV = Velocity constant of a brushless motor
L = Length
n = Number of points in the database
P = Power
R2 = Coefficient of correlation
T = Maximum static thrust
w = Weight

Subscripts

cell = Elementary unit of a battery pack

E DF = Electric Ducted Fan
motor = Electric brushless motor

∗ Research Engineer, Department of Mechanical Engineering / PIMI 15-03 Project

† Associate Professor, Department of Mechanical Engineering, AIAA Member
‡ Associate Professor, Department of Mechanical Engineering

Copyright © 2019 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. All rights reserved.
 II. Introduction
At early stages of design, where the airplane layout is not established yet, a large spectrum of aircraft configurations
remains being a design alternative. In this way, the large amount of architectures to be assessed at conceptual and
preliminary design phases has encouraged the employment of parametric and semi-empirical models due to their rapid
implementation and moderate computational cost while maintaining accurate results [1, 2]. In this sense, the conception
of civil airplanes has historically relied on well documented parametric models, semi-empirical correlations and technical
criteria, which has been derived from statistical data of operative aircraft [3–6]. Along the years, these correlations
have been enhanced by including the recent advances on technology, which has enabled to assess non-conventional
aircraft models (e.g. Blended Wing Body aircraft) [7, 8]. With certain considerations, these correlations have been
also adapted for the conceptual design of unmanned aerial platforms that fit in the category of HALE UAVs [9–11].
However, the applicability of these correlations in the design of UAVs (specially medium, small and micro UAVs) could
lead to oversize the UAV systems since UAVs follow different trade-offs compared with transport aircraft [12].
In this context, the design of UAVs requires a personalized research to establish appropriate correlations that
encompass the large spectrum of UAV categories. This could allow to size the different aircraft systems, like propulsion,
weight and geometry, in a more rapid and accurate way while considering the UAV’s design requirements and
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performance constraints. In this sense, various authors have developed empirical correlations for conceptual and
preliminary design based on statistical analysis of databases for different categories of UAVs [12–16]. These studies
present several design charts by means of scatter plots that combines key parameters like wing loading, power loading,
and mass fraction for some UAV systems, which are useful to define initial characteristics of the UAV such as power and
thrust required, initial take-off mass, wing reference area, and rough estimates of the airplane dimensions. Regarding the
propulsion system of UAVs, Gur [17] introduces several correlations for the energetic assessment and weight estimation
of electric brushless motors and Li-Po batteries. Bershadsky [18], on the other hand, exhibits correlations for electrical
sizing of brushless motors, electronic speed controllers, and batteries commonly used in multi-rotors.
In order to fill the gap about appropriate tools for the design of propulsion systems for UAVs, this work presents
a series of empirical correlations for the preliminary sizing of various components of electric propulsion systems as
presented in Fig. 1. These correlations will enable to determine the main preliminary characteristics of propulsion
systems such as weight, dimensions, fuel consumption, and other specific properties depending on the system. For the
generation of these correlations, a structured database with technical information from off-the-shelf components has
been conformed and a statistical data analysis has been developed. The following sections presents the methodology to
structure the database and the tools employed in the statistical analysis. Finally, a set of correlations are presented for
each type of propulsion system.

Propulsion
Systems Lithium-based:
for UAVs Li-ion
Li-Po
LiFePO4
Cells
Electric &
Electric Brushless
Ducted fan Batteries
Motor
Nickel-based:
NiMH
Inrunner Outunner Ni-Cd

Fig. 1 Propulsion systems for UAVs addressed in this work

III. Methodology
The sizing correlations presented in this work are the result of a systematic data analysis based on the methodology
presented in Refs. [14–16]. At the initial stage of this research, an extensive survey of different propulsion architectures
for various vehicle configurations was carried out. This survey revealed the existence of a wide spectrum of power
plants for unmanned aircraft, ranging from conventional (fuel-based and electric-based propulsion) to novel systems
(solar power, fuel cells, hybrid systems, and the most recent ionic wind) [19–23]. Considering that the technology
for novel systems is still under development and not enough data are available, this work focuses on conventional

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 propulsion systems, specifically the ones presented in Fig. 1. Once defined the propulsion system types, an exhaustive
data gathering of off-the-shelf devices was developed in order to compile structured databases that integrate design
parameters and operational characteristics for all the propulsion systems addressed in this study. For this aim, data
were collected mainly from online catalogues and databases, online stores, and specialized forums. During this stage,
the dispersion of the data was constantly monitored through checking that the data corresponding to the independent
variables were equally distributed along the range of study. However, this latter was not possible to achieve since the
market trends and the preferences of the consumers and manufacturers make the data non-uniformly dispersed, as
observed in section IV.
The data analysis was performed in three sequential stages that are described below. Initially, the data sets were
preliminary evaluated using techniques for classification and data visualization. In this stage, the independent variables
were defined based on two criteria: the interrelation between the parameters observed by means of scatter matrix plots
and the physical meaning of the selected variables. Once defined the independent variables, the data sets were prepared
for the regression analysis. Outlier points were removed from the data sets based on the Cook’s distance method, which
measures the variance of the regression coefficients due to the influence of a specific observation [24]. As shown in Fig.
2, the analysis of Cook’s distance is relevant, specially for leverage points, which can change significantly the regression
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model. Afterwards, a statistical analysis was performed to derive sizing correlations for each type of propulsion system
based on the procedure of least squares method. Similar to Ref. [15], the correlations presented in this work were
derived according to the power law (y = A x B ) because most of the data sets fit to a linear model when plotted in a
logarithmic scale (Fig. 2). The power law is also common to model aircraft systems as presented in Refs. [1, 12]. The
data analysis was carried out using the Python programming language, taking advantage of specialized packages for
data science and statistical analysis like Pandas, Numpy, Scipy, Scikit-learn and others.

(Without leverage points)

Y = A2 · X B2 (Power law)
Outliers
Y

Leverage
points

Y = A 1 · X B1
(With leverage points)

X
Fig. 2 Schematic representation of the tools and methods used for the statistical analysis

IV. Results and discussion

A. Electric propulsion systems

As presented in Refs. [17, 18, 25], the main components of a electric propulsion system, conventional or hybrid-
electric, are the electric motor, the electronic speed controller, the battery, and the propeller/fan. In this section, sizing
correlations for cells & batteries, electric ducted fans, and electric brushless motors (outrunner and inrunner) are
presented.

B. Cells & Batteries

Batteries are key components of electric propulsion systems, these supply the power required to run the electric
motor and other electric/electronic components for navigation, control and data acquisition [26]. The battery manages
the performance of the UAV because this contributes significantly to the total weight of the UAV and controls the flight
time (Endurance), which depends directly on the battery capacity (Cbatter y ) [27]. For electric air vehicles, there are

3
 different battery types in terms of chemistry reported in the literature [23, 28, 29]. Their electrical modelling, advantages
and disadvantages are well reported in previous works [30–32]. In this context, this section presents correlations to size
unitary cells and battery packs for the following types of battery chemistry: Li-Po, Li-ion, LiFePO4, NiCd, and NiMH.
In this study, three characteristics of cells & batteries are evaluated: the capacity , the voltage, and the weight. The
charge and discharge rate have not been included in this study because these are more related with the electric modelling
of the battery and no correlations have been found for these parameters. For both cells & batteries, correlations to
determine the weight of the battery capacity and voltage are presented. In what respect to unitary cells, Fig. 3 illustrates
the data collected from different manufacturers, plotted in a logarithmic scale, and Table 1 presents the regression
coefficients and the number of observations (n) in each data set. The database developed for battery cells includes
prismatic, flat, and cylindrical cells, the weight reported in the database includes the weight of the cell by itself plus
the weight of wiring and the material to envelop and insulate the battery cell. Based on the coefficient R2 , the present
correlations can predict accurately and precisely the weight of battery cells as function of their capacity. The range of
cell capacity for each type of cell chemistry can be appreciated in Fig. 3, but in general, this study addressed battery
cells from 30 [mAh] to 500000 [mAh] of capacity. The present correlations will enable parametric studies on the
performance of electric powered UAVs as function of different power sources (battery chemistry), voltage (number of
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cells connected in-series) and capacity (number of cells parallel connected).

Fig. 3 Weight of unitary cells as function of cell capacity

Table 1 Regression coefficients for battery cells. Wcell = A Ccell B

Type A B R2 n
Li-ion 0.0635 0.8627 0.9644 77
Li-Po 0.0446 0.9273 0.9696 241
LiFePo4 0.0306 1.0031 0.9918 64
Ni-Cd 0.1524 0.7813 0.9237 73
Ni-MH 0.0349 0.9095 0.9439 66

In this study, it was determined that Li-Po cells and Li-Po batteries are the most used by small and medium UAVs
including from multi-copters to flying wing UAVs. There is a large number of manufacturers that supply these type of
cells/batteries in different ranges of voltage and capacity. As appreciated in Table 1, the largest number of observations
corresponds to Li-Po cells. In this context, the present work developed a personalized research of Li-Po battery packs for
UAV applications. Similar to battery cells, sizing correlations to determine the weight of the Li-Po battery as function
of the battery capacity and voltage are presented. In common with battery cells, the weight of the Li-Po battery includes
the weight of the battery cells, wires, electronic controllers, and the cover of the battery pack. In Ref. [18], a similar
study was developed; however, the scope of that research was limited to low values of voltage (22.2V ≡ 6S). The data
collected was plotted in two separate figures for better visualization and to divide the analysis in two main categories.

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 Figure 4a groups Li-Po battery that are commonly used by RC and FPV small UAVs, while batteries from Fig. 4b are
most oriented to larger UAVs that requires really high values of voltage. Table 2 present the regression coefficients and
the number of observations for each number of battery cells covered in this study. Based on the coefficient R2 , the
present correlations can predict accurately and precisely the weight of Li-Po batteries as function of their capacity and
voltage.
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(a) (b)

Fig. 4 Weight of Li-Po battery packs as function of battery capacity

Table 2 Regression coefficients for Li-Po battery packs. W L i−P o = A CbBat t er y

Li-Po Battery: Packs

Ncells 2S 3S 4S 5S 6S 7S 8S 9S 10S 12S
A 0.1224 0.1931 0.2828 0.2777 0.3988 0.8657 0.2975 0.3564 0.7246 1.0378
B 0.8963 0.8874 0.8744 0.8993 0.8810 0.8081 0.9512 0.9443 0.8715 0.8562
R2 0.9723 0.9741 0.9763 0.9509 0.9761 0.8553 0.9527 0.8423 0.9434 0.9675
n 719 620 440 141 346 43 51 21 47 31

C. Electric ducted fan

Electric ducted fan operate at high RPM to generate thrust from the pressure difference between the flow intake and
exit stations, they require less torque to generate thrust due to they have smaller blades than conventional propellers
[33]. Therefore, most of electric ducted fans employs brushless inrunner motors because these enable to achieve
higher speeds and lower values of torque compared with brushless outrunner motors [34]. This section addresses the
preliminary design of EDF using correlations. A series of semi-empirical correlations to determine initial characteristics
of the electric motor, the battery, and the ducted fan are presented (Fig. 5 and Equation 1). For this, data have
being compiled from different sources∗ , a database of 270 ducted fan units from 12 different manufacturers has been
structured. Considering that the function of a EDF is to generate thrust, the maximum static thrust, which is provided by
manufacturers, has been defined as the independent variable. According to Refs. [33, 35, 36], the maximum static
thrust specified by manufacturers can be assumed as the thrust required for take-off or can be calculated using the
approaches presented in Refs. [33, 37]. Figure 5a introduces a correlation to determine the velocity constant (KVmotor )
of the electric brushless inrunner motor that powers the EDF, the coefficient of correlation indicates the power law
∗ EDF by brand https://www.turbines-rc.com/en/127-edf-by-brand

5
 represents with considerable accuracy the interrelations between the motor velocity constant and the maximum static
thrust. Figure 5b provides a correlation to estimate the power that the battery must supply to the electric motor in
order to generate a certain amount of thrust. In this case, the coefficient R2 also shows good match between the power
law and the data collected. Figure 5c present two correlations to determine the weight of the EDF from two different
perspectives: mechanical and (Equation 1). From the mechanical point of view, the weight of the EDF can be estimated
from the maximum static thrust. While from the electrical point of view, the weight of the EDF can be estimated from
the KV s of the electric motor. It was difficult to establish highly accurate correlations to determine the weight of the
EDF due to the non-linear behavior of electric brushless inrunner motors. In general, electric motors are difficult to
model with empirical correlations derived from single-variable regression as discussed in the following section. For
instance, two EDFs of the same diameter and weight can generate different amounts of thrust depending on the KV s
of the electric motor. Similarly, two EDFs powered by the same electric motor can generate similar values of thrust
and weight differently depending on the diameter of the duct and the number of fan blades. Finally, Fig. 5d present a
correlation to size the duct diameter as function of the weight of the EDF. From the data collected, it was identified
that electric ducted fans that poses the same diameter have a similar weight, therefore the diameter of the EDF is well
characterized as function of the weight of the EDF unit. In this case, the coefficient of correlation indicates a good
Downloaded by Esteban Valencia on September 6, 2019 | http://arc.aiaa.org | DOI: 10.2514/6.2019-4304

agreement between the data and the power law regression model.

WE DF = 24.116 T 0.8051
, R2 = 0.8770
(1)
WE DF = 441839 KVmotor
−0.9571
, R2 = 0.8225

D. Electric brushless motors

The brushless motor is a key component in electric propulsion systems since they convert the electrical power,
stored in the battery, into mechanical power when coupled with a propeller/fan [17, 18]. Refs. [34, 38, 39] describe
thoroughly the electrical modelling and performance of such devices. However, for the preliminary design of electric
powered UAVs, general properties of the electric motor (weight, power, diameter, length, KV s) are of greater interest.
In this context, this work aimed to derive correlations for preliminary sizing of electric brushless motors based on
statistical analysis of data from off-the-shelf motors, similar to Refs. [17, 18, 40]. In this study, data was collected
from 12 manufacturers of brushless outrunner motors and from 10 manufacturers of brushless inrunner motors. Unlike
batteries and EDFs, it was impossible to derive correlations with enough accuracy due to the non-linear behavior of
brushless motors, reflected in the disparity and non-uniformity of the data, which makes difficult to model this type of
motors with uni-variate and even with multi-variate models [18, 40]. Figures 6a and 6b illustrates the data collected,
which present a analogous behavior to the one found in Refs. [17, 18, 40]. Unlike the aforementioned works, this study
categorized the data according to the number of poles of the brushless motor. In spite of that, no correlations with
descent accuracy were found, only some trade-offs were identified. As stated in Refs. [34, 39], the larger number of
motor poles, the lower number of KV s of the brushless motor, this behaviour is observed in Fig. 6 for both inrunner and
outrunner motors. From the data collected, it was identified that inrunner motors are designed with lower number of
poles compared with outrunner motors, this makes inrunner motors a suitable alternative to run EDFs, considering that
EDFs generally operate at higher speeds than propellers, which are commonly run by using outrunner motors instead.

V. Summary
Cells & batteries: For battery cells, this work presented a group of correlations to determine the weight of the cell
as function of the cell capacity and chemistry. While for Li-Po batteries, a correlation to determine the weight of the
battery as function of its capacity and total voltage have been developed. .
Electric Ducted Fans: For this type of power plant, correlations to determine the weight and diameter of the
EDF unit, the power input (supplied by the battery), and the KV s of the inrunner brushless motor that run the EDF
are presented. This correlations have been developed as function of variables that are commonly determined in the
conceptual design phase of UAVs (e.g. Thrust required).
Electric brushless motors: It was impossible to determine correlations with descent accuracy by means of linear
uni-variate regression. However, it was determined some trade-offs in the behaviour of brushless motors as function of the
number of magnetic poles. A deeper analysis is required to determine accurate correlations suitable for implementation
in the preliminary design of UAVs. Finally, this set of correlations can be implemented in a variety of studies including

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Downloaded by Esteban Valencia on September 6, 2019 | http://arc.aiaa.org | DOI: 10.2514/6.2019-4304

(a) KVs of the electric motor (b) Electric power input

(c) Weight of the EDF unit (d) Diameter of the fan duct

Fig. 5 Sizing correlations for EDF from 2 up to 250 [N] of maximum static thrust. n = 270

but not limited to the performance analysis of electric and hybrid electric UAVs (Range and endurance), rapid sizing
and selection of electric propulsion systems, optimization and trade-off studies. .

VI. Conclusions
A series of correlations for sizing of UAV’s propulsion systems have been developed, these correlations were based
on off-the shelf components and their scope ranges from micro to MALE UAVs. For the correlation development the
Cook’s distance criteria was employed to reduce the dispersed data, then statistical analysis was performed to derive
sizing correlations following the power law. The correlations showed a good match and satisfactory correlations indexes.
For brushless motors, a deeper analysis is required to derive sizing correlations useful for preliminary design of electric
powered UAVs. In general, the main contribution of this work lies on the fast and simple implementation of the present
correlations for conceptual and preliminary design of UAV’s, where they can offer a quick and good enough assessment
of electric propulsion systems.

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Downloaded by Esteban Valencia on September 6, 2019 | http://arc.aiaa.org | DOI: 10.2514/6.2019-4304

(a) Brushless INRUNNER motor. n = 650 (b) Brushless OUTRUNNER motor. n = 750

Fig. 6 KVmotor and Wmotor characteristics of electric brushless motors

VII. Acknowledgements
The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support provided by Escuela Politécnica Nacional for the
development of the projects: PIMI 15-03, PIMI 18-01, PIJ 15-11 and PIS 16-20.

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Downloaded by Esteban Valencia on September 6, 2019 | http://arc.aiaa.org | DOI: 10.2514/6.2019-4304

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