Department of Civil Engineering

Corse Code: CE-231

Course Title: Environmental Engineering-I

Credits: 3.0

Lecture: 02

Topic: Introduction to Water Demand

Syeda Zehan Farzana; Assistant Professor, CE, LUS 1

Variation in Demand or Draft

Annual average demand is not sufficient for the design of various components of a water supply
scheme.

There are at least three types of variation in demand:

1. Seasonal Variations:
 Maximum in summer (25 to 40 % higher than annual daily average)
 Minimum in mid-winter (20 % less than annual daily average)
 Seasonal industries (processing of cash crops)

2. Daily Variations:
 More consumption in Friday and holiday

3. Hourly Variations:
 Two peak hours, one between 8 - 11 AM and other between 7 - 9 PM

Syeda Zehan Farzana; Assistant Professor, CE, LUS 2

Design Flow

Maximum Daily Flow = ( )

Minimum Daily Flow = ( ⁄ ⁄ )

Maximum Hourly Flow = ( )

Coincident Draft [S.K. Garg, 18th Ed. pp-23]

 It is extremely improbable to that a fire may break out when water is being
drawn by the consumers at maximum hourly draft.
 Therefore total draft demand is not (fire demand + maximum hourly
demand)
 Total draft demand is (maximum daily demand + fire demand or
maximum hourly demand; whichever is greater)
 The maximum daily demand when added to fire draft for working out total
draft is known as coincident draft.

Prediction of Population

1. Arithmetic Increase Method

2. Geometric Increase Method
3. Incremental Increase Method
4. Graphical Method
5. Graphical Comparison Method
6. Zoning Method (Master Plan)
7. The Ration Method or Apportionment (Distribution) Method
8. The Logistic Curve Method
9. Least Square Parabola Method (M.A. Aziz, pp-34)

Syeda Zehan Farzana; Assistant Professor, CE, LUS 3

Arithmetic Increase Method:

Que.01 Solve by using Arithmetic Increase Method find prospective population for years 1980,
1990 & 2000.

Year 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970

Population 25000 28000 34000 42000 47000

Solution:

Year Population Increase in Population

1930 25000 3000
1940 28000 6000
1950 34000 8000
1960 42000 5000
1970 47000
Total 22000

Average Increase ( ̅ )

̅ ( )

̅ ( )

̅ ( )

N.B. This method gives low results and it is mainly adopted for larger cities which have
practically reached their maximum development.

Syeda Zehan Farzana; Assistant Professor, CE, LUS 4

Geometric Increase Method:

( )

( )

𝑷𝟏 𝐼𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑘𝑛𝑜𝑤𝑛 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛

a.) √ ; 𝑷𝟐 𝐹𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑘𝑛𝑜𝑤𝑛 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛

𝒕 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑑𝑒 (𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑) 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑃 & 𝑃

Where,

𝒊𝒏𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆 𝒊𝒏 𝒑𝒐𝒑𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏
b.) Arithmetic Average, 𝒓𝒕 𝟏𝟎𝟎
𝒐𝒓𝒊𝒈𝒊𝒏𝒂𝒍 𝒑𝒐𝒑𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏

c.) Geometric Average √

Syeda Zehan Farzana; Assistant Professor, CE, LUS 5

Que.02 Solve by using Geometric Increase Method find prospective population for years 1980,
1990 & 2000.

Year 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970

Population 25000 28000 34000 42000 47000

Solution:

Year Population Increase in Population (%)

1930 25000 12
1940 28000 21.43
1950 34000 23.53
1960 42000 11.90
1970 47000

(%)

Arithmetic Average,

Geometric Average √

Geometric Increase Method Arithmetic Geometric

( ) 55,093 54,699

( ) 64,580 63,658

( ) 75,701 74,085

N.B. Computing is done in every decade. This method gives better results for old cities which
are not undergoing any further development.

Syeda Zehan Farzana; Assistant Professor, CE, LUS 6

Incremental Increase Method:

Que.03 Solve by using Incremental Increase Method find prospective population for years 1980,
1990 & 2000.

Year 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970

Population 25000 28000 34000 42000 47000

Solution:

Year Population Increase in Population Incremental Increase

25000
1930
3000
28000 +3000
1940
6000
34000 +2000
1950
8000
42000 -3000
1960
5000
47000
1970

Total 22000 +2000

Average Arithmetic Increase = = 5500

Average Incremental Increase = = 667

( )

( )

( )

N.B. Combination of method 01 and 02 gives quite satisfactory result.

Syeda Zehan Farzana; Assistant Professor, CE, LUS 7

Graphical Method:

1. Population vs. Time graph is plotted

2. Curve is then carefully extended from present to future.

Que.04 Solve by using Graphical Method find prospective population for years 1980, 1990 &
2000.

Year 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970

Population 25000 28000 34000 42000 47000

Solution:

Syeda Zehan Farzana; Assistant Professor, CE, LUS 8

Comments:

 All those four methods are easy and simple.

 They are based on the main assumption that factors and conditions which are
responsible for population growth in the past will continue to exist in future in
the same intensity.
 Useful for areas having slow and steady population growth.
 Useful for providing a check on the results of other methods.

Syeda Zehan Farzana; Assistant Professor, CE, LUS 9