Climate Dynamics ‘The term climate refers to the mean state of the atmosphere and related components of the Earth system and itis also used in reference to atmospheric variability on timescales longer than the 2- to 3-week ‘of most deterministic atmospheric predictability. ‘The mean state, including, diurnal and seasonal varia- tions as defined by some prescribed averaging period, is referred to as the climatological mean,! and depar- tures from this mean state or normal are referred to as ‘climate anomalies. For example, 9 4°C temperature anomaly denotes a temperature that is 4°C above the ‘limatological mean for that particular location and time of year. The term climate variability refers to fong-term variations or changes in the mean state, ie, + intraseasonal climate variability denotes ‘month-to-month variations about the seasonally ‘varying climatological mean that occur within ‘the same season (e2..the distinction between ‘an abnormally warm January and an abnormally cold February), ‘+ interannual variability denotes year-to-year variations of annual or seasonal averages (eg, between the mean temperatures observed in suceessive winter seasons), and + decadal, century-scale, te, denotes decade-to- decade, contury-to-century, ete, scale variations, ‘The distinction between climate variability and climate ‘change is argely semantic: ifthe variations of interest take place within some specified interval (eg, the 20th ‘century, they are refered to as the varabity of the climate within that interval, whereas if the variations involve differences between two successive epochs (eg. the first and second halves of the 20th century), they are referred to as the change in climate from one epoch to the next. “The next section describes the present-day climate ‘and the processes that shape it The nature and causes ‘of climate variability on various timescales is then discussed and related to the history of past climate. The section on climate variability is followed by a discussion of the climate sensitivity and climate feedbacks ‘The chapter concludes with a section summarizing some of the scientific ses related to greenhouse warming, 10.1 The Present-Day Climate “The mean state of the climate system is determined by the emission of radiation from the sun, the Earth's, rotation rate and orbital characteristics, the composi- tion of the atmosphere, and the interactions between, the atmosphere and the other components of the Earth system that determine the fluxes of mass, energy, and momentum at the Earth’s surface. Some of the characteristics of that mean state were deseribed in Chapters 1 and 2, This section provides further specifics concerning the diurnally and seasonally vary- ing mean climate and the processes that maintain it. 10.1.1 Annual Mean Conditions ‘The global mean surface air temperature T, = 15°C for 288 K and the Earth’s equivalent blackbody tem- perature T= 255K are equilibrium values, deter- ‘mined by the balance requirements that the globally averaged net radiation through the top of the atmos- phere, as well as the met energy flux (ie. the sum of T Conventional climatological means ae based on prescribed sot of sequential 30-year periods the most recat of which ended in Dovemer 19, 419420 Climate Dynar the short and longwave radiative fluxes and the fluxes of latent and sensible heat), at the Earth’s surface, as prescribed by (9.18) must vanish. If these balance requirements were not fulfilled, the temperatures would change until an equilibrium was achioved. For example, if the net radiation at the top of the atmosphere were downward, the Earth's equiv alent blackbody temperature would have to rise until the outgoing longwave radiation increased enough to eliminate the imbalance. Based on global measure- ments, such as those shown in Figs 4.35 and 9.14, it is possible to construct the global energy balance shown in Fig. 10.1. ‘The 100 units of insolation (a synonym for the sea- sonally varying, climatological-mean solar radiation) incident on the top of the atmosphere represent a flux density of 342W mr? integrated over the Earth's surface as shown in Fig. 4.8. OF the 100 units incident on the top of the atmosphere, 3 are absorbed by stratospheric ozone and 17 by water ‘vapor and clouds in the troposphere. A total of 30 units are reflected back to space:20 from clouds and aerosols, 6 from air molecules, and 4 from the Earth's surface. The total reflection (30 out of 100 units of Fig. 10.1 The global energy balance. The 100 units ofincom- ing energy represent the 342 W m~” of incidene solar radiation averaged over the area of the Earth, Black arrows represent shorewave radiation, red arrows represent longwave radiation, land blue arrows represent the (nonradiative) fluxes of sensible heat (SH) and latent heat (LH). The absorption and emission by the Earth's surface, che croposphere, and the stratosphere each sum to zero, and the net Fux through each of the inter- faces sums to zero. [Adapted from Dennis L. Hartmann, Glebal Physical Cimatoley, p. 28 (Copyright 1994), with permission from Elsevier] incoming radiation) is the Earth's albedo. The romaining 50 units are the net downward shortwave flux through the Earth’s surface. ‘The Earth disposes of the energy that it absorbs by a combination of longwave radiation and latent and sensible heat fluxes jeated by the red and blue arrows in Fig. 10.1. The 110 units of longwave radiation emitted from the Farth’s surface is equal to effective emissivity of the surface, which ranges from 0.92 to 0.97 locally, times o$, averaged over the sur- face of the Earth, where 7, is the surface temperature. ‘The net upward longwave flux through the Earth’s surface (ie, the difference between the upward emis- sion from the surface and the downward emission from clouds and greenhouse gases in the atmosphere) amounts to only 21 units. Were it not for the presence of the downward longwave fluxes (i... the greenhouse effect) the Earth's surface would be in equilibrium with the incident solar radiation at a temperature close to Ty and the latent and sensible heat fluxes would be much smaller than observed Exercise 10.1 On the basis of the data given in Fi 10.1, describe the energy balance of the troposphere. Solution: “The troposphere is heated by the absorp- tion of solar radiation, mostly by water vapor and clouds (17 units), the absorption of longwave radiation emitted by the Farth’s surface (110 ~ 12 = 98 units), the absorption of longwave radiation emitted by the stratosphere (5 units), the sensible heat transfer through the Earth’s surface (5 units), and latent heat release (24 units). Hence, the troposphere must emit a total of 17 498 +545 +24 = 149 units of radiation in the longwave part of the spectrum in order to achieve a balance. It emits 89 units in the downward direction and 60 units in the upward direction, ‘The annual mean latitudinal distribution of net radi- ation at the top of the atmosphere, shown in Fig. 10.2, was generated by zonally averaging the distributions shown in Fig. 4.35. Because the temperature of the Earth system is changing only very slowly, the globally averaged insolation must be in balance with the outgoing longwave radiation. Hence, there must be a surplus of insolation relative to outgoing longwave radiation at low latitudes and a deficit at high lati- tudes It is this imbalance that maintains the observed equator-to-pole temperature contrast in the presence of the strong poleward heat fluxes produced by baro- clinic waves, as explained in Section 7.3 and 7.4.