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2017年大麻市场状况摘要(P24) ArcView Marijuana Markets Executive Summary
2017年大麻市场状况摘要(P24) ArcView Marijuana Markets Executive Summary
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Executive Summary
It’s hard to imagine a more unique industry than the cannabis industry, or one
that is growing and changing faster.
If you are looking to make decisions regarding your involvement in this nascent,
but fast-maturing industry, you deserve access to the best data and analysis
to plot your course. Arcview has helped people like you navigate this complex
business and political environment since 2010.
Troy Dayton, CEO
The Arcview Group As the leading publisher in researching and understanding the legal sale and
distribution of cannabis, Arcview Market Research brings unparalleled expertise
and insight to the task. In an effort to stay on the cutting edge of data and
analysis we are pleased to partner with BDS Analytics on this edition. We chose
BDS Analytics because they have a comprehensive and meticulous data set
backed up by point-of-sale transaction data.
1
I’m also excited to introduce you to Tom Adams, Arcview’s new Editor-In-Chief.
Tom Adams created the projections and analysis that pioneers of the home
video revolution and later the broadband internet revolution relied on. He now
brings that tremendous experience and insight to today’s business boom.
Tom Adams, As the leading group of high net worth investors in the cannabis industry,
Editor-in-Chief The Arcview Group believes that investment in quality market data and analysis
will pay dividends in a market where mistakes can be costly and where getting
up and staying up to speed quickly is crucial.
I invite you to consider ordering the full 200+ page report that will be released
in a few weeks. If you do, you will also get a robust mid-year update later in the
year. For the cost of an hour or two of a top expert’s time you can access the
data and analysis that are the result of thousands of hours of painstaking effort.
Sincerely,
Troy Dayton,
CEO The Arcview Group
Cannasure.com
Executive Summary
A Year Of Substantial
Gains Across The Industry
The legal cannabis industry accelerated at
a remarkable pace in 2016. North American
consumers spent $6.9 billion on legal cannabis
products, up 34% from 2015.
Cannabis is now largely sold in state- less than 56% of the business.
of-the-art retail dispensaries with More states passed laws to open new
computer-based inventory and sales markets and expand existing ones in
tracking, fully regulated and taxed by 2016 than in any previous year. These
their state governments just like any new markets will drive sustained
other product category. Entrepreneurs revenue growth in the years ahead. The
are modernizing the product just as legislatures of Pennsylvania and Ohio
quickly. Many successful brands have legalized medical cannabis in those major
launched extracts, edibles, topicals, swing states, while voters in California,
and other types of products that are Maine, Nevada, and Massachusetts
leading consumers to spend more and, passed adult-use initiatives and Arkansas,
3 in cutting-edge Colorado, they have North Dakota, Florida, and Montana
reduced traditional dried flowers to voters passed medical cannabis laws.
$25 BILLION
$20 BILLION
14.848
10.776
$15 BILLION
7.727
$10 BILLION
5.06
2.497
$5 BILLION 1.782
0.946
$25 BILLION
$20 BILLION
$15 BILLION
$10 BILLION
$5 BILLION
$0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Basic Cable ‘86 Home Video ‘88 Legal Cannabis ‘16 Broadband Access ‘02
The blistering 40% compound annual as national networks like CNN and HBO 4
growth rate (CAGR) from 2014 to 2016 proved to be wildly popular. Broadband
was driven primarily by Colorado and internet subscription spending grew
Washington initiating adult-use sales. 29% per annum in the early 2000s as
This rate of growth will subside it became almost as much of a “must-
somewhat in 2017 to 19%, as the eight have” utility as electricity or television
states that voted to open or expand for the modern home. What became the
their cannabis markets on Election Day ubiquitous home video business that
in November 2016 work to implement birthed the great Blockbuster success
the new programs. But Arcview Market story only grew at a 12% CAGR after
Research (AMR) forecasts growth will reaching $5 billion in revenue in 1988
reaccelerate beginning in 2018, as adult- (see graph, above).
use sales ramp up in Canada, California,
and Massachusetts along with medical Very few consumer industry categories reach
sales in Florida. That will grow the
$6.9-billion market of 2016 at a robust
$5 billion in annual spending and then post
26% CAGR to $21.6 billion in 2021 anything like 25% compound annual growth
(see graph, page 2). across the following five years.
Very few consumer industry categories That 20%-plus annual growth rate is likely
reach $5 billion in annual spending and to continue for many years past 2021
then post anything like 25% compound as more states and countries legalize
annual growth across the following cannabis. AMR includes 30 states plus
five years. Cable television came close, Canada with active legal markets by
growing 19% annually in the late 1980s 2021 in its model, but in many of the
Arcview is the #1 source of deal flow in the fastest growing industry. If you qualify as a high net worth
accredited investor or if you are an entrepreneur raising capital, Arcview might be right for you.
Executive Summary
largest markets, like New York and Florida, industry. Countries around the world are
sales are expected to remain limited to already responding to the state-by-state
medical-use. In the 2021-2026 period, dismantling of prohibition in America—
however, many of these states will build the chief exporter of the “War on Drugs”
robust legal adult-use markets, and for decades—by moving to allow medical
all but a few states will make medical use (as in Australia, Germany, Colombia
cannabis available legally. It’s also likely and most recently Mexico) or to outright
that U.S. federal prohibition will be legalization (as in Uruguay).
repealed during that period, which would
fuel explosive growth. Robust growth through 2021 and
beyond, at least in the U.S., is predicated
Canada is included in AMR’s North partly on the assumption that the
American market projections for the federal government does not return
first time and analyzed throughout to waging all-out war on the cannabis
this 5th Edition of The State of Legal industry. The full report in Chapter
Marijuana Markets. The expected roll-out 2 provides a detailed analysis of the
of Canada’s adult-use market is analyzed reasons why that kind of reversal by
in Chapter 3. The U.S. northern neighbor the federal government is very unlikely,
may be the world leader in moving but a major one is the popularity of
toward a well-regulated legal cannabis legal cannabis. Polls show that 80% of
6
Gallup Poll: U.S. Support for Legal Marijuana
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0
1969 1972 1973 1977 1979 1980 1985 1995 2000 2001 2003 2005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Americans approve of legal access to rolled back at the fastest rates in those
medical cannabis and 60% approve of states with the most mature legal adult-
full adult-use legalization (see graph, use markets. (see graph, below). Most
page 5). That level of agreement is rare on dramatically, what AMR estimates was a
any policy issue and it’s allowing elected $1-billion illicit market in Colorado is now
officials across the political spectrum to less than $500 million, which represents
start to move past the stigma previously just 28% of a $1.8-billion overall market.
associated with this issue.
Election Results
One key reason support for legalization
is spreading so rapidly is that it is President Donald Trump said in 1991,
accomplishing a key goal: the illicit “You have to legalize drugs to win that
market is shrinking. The illicit market war.” He backed away from that position
grew steadily throughout the last 40 in his campaign for president but was
years of the War on Drugs to what AMR remarkably consistent in his support for
estimates was a North American total medical access to cannabis and his belief
of $44.2 billion when adult-use sales that cannabis policy should be up to the
first began in 2014 in Colorado and states. But once elected he appointed
Washington. Illicit sales are now being dedicated drug warrior Jeff Sessions for
Illegal
States
100%
USA
90% Average
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
100% 99% 97% 93% 88% 71% 51% 39% 33%
20%
10%
0
Illinois Alaska DC California Washington Oregon Colorado
Hawaii
Attorney General. Sessions remarked Nevada also voted to legalize adult use,
“Good people don’t smoke marijuana” though a similar initiative failed narrowly
at a 2015 Congressional hearing. in Arizona. Massachusetts and Maine
also passed voter-generated initiatives to
Despite conflicting signals from the legalize the adult use of cannabis, joining
new administration, investors and District of Columbia voters in showing the
entrepreneurs have many other continent-wide breadth of the movement
reasons to be hopeful: (see graphic, page 8).
But the effort to repeal cannabis Even that move was apparently too much
prohibition at the Federal level remains for some inside the bureau; in December
complicated. Richard Nixon tried to stem new rules were announced clarifying
the rising popularity of cannabis by that the agency even considers non-
equating it to heroin on 1970s Controlled psychoactive cannabidiol (CBD) extracts
Substances Act (CSA) Schedule 1 list of Schedule 1 controlled substances.
drugs that 1) have no medical use, 2) have
high potential for abuse, and 3) are unsafe Rohrabacher-Farr
to use even under medical supervision. The DEA’s stance makes the Rohrabacher-
Farr budget amendment protecting
The DEA’s stance makes the Rohrabacher- medical marijuana states from federal
Farr budget amendment protecting medical intervention even more important to the
marijuana states from federal intervention industry’s suitability for investment. The
amendment, a piece of legislation first
even more important to the industry’s introduced in 2003 and finally passed
suitability for investment. on December 16, 2014, was renewed in
December of 2015 when the U.S. House
There was a glimmer of hope in late of Representatives approved a continuing
2015 when the Drug Enforcement resolution that funds the federal
Administration (DEA) announced it government until April 28, 2017 and
11
would reconsider its 45-year-long includes the Rohrabacher-Farr language.
classification of cannabis as a Schedule
1 controlled substance. Some advocates In August 2016, Rohrabacher-Farr
were hopeful it would be removed received a favorable ruling by the Ninth
from CSA schedules completely, and Circuit Court of Appeals in United States
become legally considered akin to v. McIntosh, which further buttresses
other mildly psychoactive products like the amendment’s ability to protect
coffee, alcohol, and tobacco. Others people and businesses involved with
were concerned that rescheduling it to the medical marijuana industry from
Schedule 2, along with cocaine, would legal or criminal actions at the federal
lead to the “pharmaceuticalization” of level. But, as a budget amendment,
the plant, as it would be forced into strict lawmakers must approve the language
Food and Drug Administration testing every year. In April 2017, Congress
protocols and distribution rules. In will begin wrestling with the new
retrospect, it was unrealistic to hope the appropriations bill, possibly reopening
nation’s chief drug-law enforcers would the Rohrabacher-Farr discussion.
advance the cause of legalization with
either step. As lawmakers begin considering the
appropriations bill in 2017, it is possible
In August 2016, the DEA reiterated that Attorney General Jeff Sessions
its Schedule 1 classification, though will offer more guidance about his
it did loosen the rules to allow more approach to cannabis than he did during
researchers to study the potential his hearing before the United States
medicinal value of cannabinoids. Senate Judiciary Committee in January.
Sessions was less confrontational about During his January testimony, the DOJ’s
marijuana during the hearing than he new chief Attorney General-designate
was as a senator, but he offered only Jeff Sessions told Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-
opaque responses to questions about VT) that while he, “won’t commit to never
how he would treat cannabis in states enforcing federal law,” enforcing federal
with legal regulatory regimes. law in regards to cannabis nationwide is
“a problem of resources for the federal
The Cole Memorandum government.” He also told Sen. Mike Lee
(R-UT) that, “it’s not the Attorney General’s
The other key federal protection the
job to decide what laws to enforce,” and
industry has from the full implications
suggested if Congress wants marijuana to
of the CSA, which makes it illegal under
be legal, it should vote to make it so.
federal law to manufacture, distribute
or dispense marijuana, is the Cole
Memorandum. On August 29, 2013, U.S. Sessions was less confrontational about
Department of Justice (DOJ) Deputy marijuana during the hearing than he was as a
Attorney General James M. Cole issued senator, but he offered only opaque responses
a memorandum to all United States
Attorneys providing updated guidance
to questions about how he would treat cannabis
to federal prosecutors concerning in states with legal regulatory regimes.
marijuana enforcement under the CSA.
12
The Cole Memo guidance applies to Banking Issues
all of the DOJ’s federal enforcement
Beyond the threat of prosecution and
activity, including civil enforcement, and
asset forfeiture, the chief federal-level
criminal investigations and prosecutions,
issue faced by cannabis businesses is lack
concerning marijuana in all states.
of access to the banking system. While it
is not actually illegal for banks to provide
The Cole Memo essentially provides services to cannabis businesses, the
a series of guiding principles that regulatory burden for banks seeking to
businesses must address to avoid federal support cannabis businesses is so onerous
intervention. If businesses follow the and costly that the major players do not
laws of the state, do not divert product see a workable business model and so
out of state, keep product out of the have shunned the cannabis industry.
hands of children, do not support
cartels, and do not launder monies, In some states, this void in banking
then the federal government will take services is being filled by community
a hands-off approach to cannabis banks and credit unions. Some of these
law enforcement. With more states smaller financial institutions, however,
expanding their medical programs into are unable to process the volume of cash
adult use, the question remains whether deposits that larger cannabis businesses
the DOJ will continue to be tolerant as make on a regular basis. In response, a
the cannabis industry continues to grow. variety of tech start-ups are developing
ways to make it less burdensome for banks federal government to catch up,” said
to embrace cannabis business clients. This Blumenauer. “Section 280E creates an
cobbled-together approach of using cash, unequal and unrealistic tax burden on
small banks, and technology work-arounds these businesses.” If passed, he said, “the
is inadequate for a swiftly-growing, multi- Act would bring much needed fairness
billion-dollar industry. and level the playing field for small
businesses that follow state laws and
Fortunately, the industry’s banking create jobs.”
situation is improving. Just two years
ago, the U.S. Department of the Treasury “More than two-thirds of Americans now live
permitted banks to work with cannabis
in jurisdictions that have legalized either the
businesses, provided they follow a series
of guidelines. In 2014, only 51 banks medical or adult use of marijuana. It’s time
and credit unions worked with cannabis for the federal government to catch up,”
companies; that number vaulted to 301 said Blumenauer
in 2016. That’s an improvement, but it
represents less than 3% of the nation’s
11,954 banks and credit unions. In the States
the gate. Implementing regulations that effect October 1 without adequate lead
are too onerous can inhibit the growth time were among the regulator-inflicted
of legal markets. Oregon’s retailers and wounds Oregon delivered to the
growers were crushed twice in 2016 due industry in 2016.
to over-regulation and scores of companies
went out of business as a result. Regulators Each of the three major adult-use states
must balance protecting public safety have had their regulatory successes,
against the economic development, jobs, but missed the mark on certain issues
and tax revenue from this lucrative which hampered the development of the
start-up industry. business. Unintended consequences have
been rife, but their experiments have
The medical industry can be a tremendous created a body of work from which others
asset to a state wanting to expand into may learn. Many of these lessons are
the adult-use space. Colorado did it right, analyzed in the report that follows.
by offering the first adult-sales licenses
to medical producers who have the In the Culture
knowledge and experience to ensure a
successful adult-use roll out. The conflict between law and attitudes
regarding cannabis can be seen across
society. Outgoing Attorney General of
None of the direst warnings from opponents the United States Loretta Lynch admitted
15 of legalization have come to pass. last year that marijuana is not a gateway
drug that leads to abuse of harder drugs
like heroin. Instead she suggested that
Seed-to-sale tracking data is required to “the family medicine cabinet” is the
regulate this industry and avoid federal gateway through which youth often
intervention. However, actionable data on discover opioids.
consumer preferences is the next green
rush in auxiliary cannabis businesses as According to two major public health
consumers explore new cannabis options agencies in separate studies published
like consumables, topicals, and tinctures. last year, none of the direst warnings
from opponents of legalization have
After realizing that protectionist, resident- come to pass. The annual Survey on Drug
only licensing policies were limiting Use and Health from the Department of
the growth of the industry, Oregon Health and Human Service’s Substance
opened the cannabis market to outside Abuse and Mental Health Services
investment. Colorado and Washington Administration (SAMHSA) shows that
are now playing catch-up. even as reported adult use rose in
Colorado in the first two years of legal
Standardized Testing sales, teen use of cannabis declined.
associated with reductions in traffic Because cities and states across the
fatalities, especially among those aged nation with legal cannabis regulatory
25 to 44 years.” Also in November, the regimes implement different rules about
journal of the American Association for how (and whether) cannabis firms can
the Advancement of Science published advertise their businesses, the loss of
a study finding that the annual rate social media access is another hurdle
of deaths due to overdose on opioid cannabis firms face as they develop their
painkillers was nearly 25% lower in states brands and try to engage consumers.
that permitted medical marijuana, and
that the effect had grown stronger in In response, entrepreneurs have created
the five years after states approved social media platforms dedicated entirely
medical marijuana. to cannabis, including MassRoots,
WeedLife, SocialHigh, HighThere,
Yet Facebook and other social media and more. These sites give cannabis
sites responded to the continued federal companies safe places to build brands,
prohibition by removing the pages but they lack the commercial power and
of cannabis businesses around the reach of Facebook and Instagram, which
country from their services early in 2016. boast more than 1 billion and 500 million
Retailers were severed from important active users, respectively. MassRoots,
connections with online communities. the largest of the cannabis social media
These challenges grew more pressing networks has just 900,000 users.
throughout 2016, as some of the largest 16
social media companies increased
the pace of account deactivations for
California accounted 31% of the 2016
cannabis firms. legal market in North America, Colorado
represents 19% and Washington
In early 2016, Marijuana Business Daily represents 11%.
reported that at least 100 Facebook
accounts had been shuttered during the
previous month alone. The same story In the Retail Market
elicited a rare email response from a
Facebook spokesperson who said that the North American consumers spent
company forbids content that “promotes $6.9 billion on legal cannabis products
the sale of marijuana regardless of state in 2016, up 30% from $5.1 billion in
or country. This includes marijuana 2015. The growth continues a robust
dispensaries.” Marijuana-related content pattern that AMR estimates will lead
that does not promote the sale of to a $21.6-bilion market in 2021 at a
cannabis is permitted. 26% compound annual growth rate.
While Canada is included in AMR’s
Cannabis firms can petition social media market view for the first time, the
companies, particularly Facebook and United States represented 86% of legal
Instagram, to reinstate their accounts, and spending in 2016. California accounted
sometimes they succeed. But the process 31% of the 2016 legal market in North
can be unwieldy and time-consuming, America, Colorado represents 19% and
and the outcome is uncertain. Washington represents 11%.
Of the top 10 markets, three already have use market will help them maintain their
adult use sales (Oregon, Washington, and leadership in terms of market size and
Colorado), two have just won legalization investment opportunities.
elections (California, Massachusetts), and
four more (Michigan, Maryland, Missouri In addition to tracking the state of the
and Canada) are expected to have legal market, and to better assess the full
implemented adult-use programs in the potential of that market, AMR developed
next five years. state-by-state estimates for the biggest
component of consumer spending on
The implication is that population does cannabis: illicit sales. This component
not necessarily correlate with the size of today’s market is important to
and scope of the opportunity in these investors because it helps to quantify
early years. Eventually, the population of the opportunity for legal cannabis sales.
the states will determine which cannabis Including the illicit market, consumer
markets are the largest, but for the next five spending on cannabis in North America
years (barring a significant shake-up in the amounted to an estimated $53.3 billion in
legalization timeline) the leading markets 2016, 87% of it outside legal channels.
have already emerged. California, Colorado,
Canada, Washington, and Michigan remain This enormous amount of illicit
on track to lead in sales volume. consumer spending sets cannabis apart
from most other major consumer-market
17 BDS Analytics’ retail tracking data allows investment opportunities throughout
a deeper dive into three of the most history. In contrast to comparable
important markets: Colorado, Washington markets which quickly grew from zero
and Oregon. Analysis of the retail channel to tens of billions of dollars, such as
shows strong opportunities for both organic foods, home video, cell phone,
existing and new businesses in each or the internet, the cannabis industry
state. In 2016, cannabis sales averaged doesn’t need to create demand for a new
$1.98 million per retail location in product or innovation - it just needs to
Colorado’s adult-use market and $896,000 move demand for an already widely-
per location in the medical channel. popular product into legal channels.
In Washington state where medical
dispensaries were shut down in favor of According to the Department of
the adult-use market, the 357 remaining Health and Human Services’ Substance
retailers averaged $1.55 million in sales Abuse and Mental Health Services
per location. Oregon’s 350 retail outlets Administration (SAMHSA) annual
selling cannabis to adult shoppers consumer survey, approximately 8.3%
generated $238 million in sales or nearly of Americans report monthly cannabis
$672,000 per location, and Oregon’s usage. However, legitimization of existing
381 medical dispensaries experienced demand for smokable flower is just the
average sales per location of $294,000 beginning for the legal cannabis market.
over the same period (see table. page 18). The early sales results from the first adult-
While Oregon, Washington and Colorado use markets in Colorado, Washington and
are relatively small states in terms of total Oregon point to a significant, untapped
population, an existing tourism market market opportunity for alternative
and their first-mover status in the adult- methods of consumption.
100% 18
4% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5%
90%
12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14%
80%
60%
50%
40%
30%
65% 64% 63% 60% 57% 56% 56%
20%
10%
0
2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
400.00
350.00
300.00
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
Dec. 31 Jan. 31 Feb. 28 Mar. 31 Apr. 30 May. 31 Jun. 30 Jul. 31 Aug. 31 Sep. 30 Oct. 31 Nov. 30 Dec. 31 Jan. 31 Feb. 28 Mar. 31 Apr. 30 May. 31 Jun. 30 Jul. 31 Aug. 31 Sep. 30 Oct. 31 Nov. 30
2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015
22
140
120
100 100
90
80 80
70
60 60
50
40 40
30
20 20
10
0 0
2013 2014 2015 2016
Deal Value Number of Companies Note: Each year equals cumulative total for all years to that point
start-up Kind Financial’s seed-to-sale In Chapter 6 of this 5th Annual The State of
tracking software with Azure, the Microsoft Legal Marijuana Markets report, investors
Government cloud. Kind will be competing will find a guide to key public and private
with several other software companies companies in eight business-model-based
for coveted deals to provide states with categories. Though many continue to
struggle with the challenges inherent in
cannabis tracking for compliance and
being pioneers in a new product category,
taxation purposes. And Scotts Miracle-
many benefited in 2016 as marginal
Gro, with $3 billion in revenue, announced operators fell away, and the survivors
multiple deals tied to its plan to invest saw their growth prospects expanded
$400 million in gardening supply dramatically by an electorate that now seems
companies with a cannabis focus. intent on legitimizing the cannabis market.
Conclusions
Decades-old markets that have grown to $5 billion and then go on to post 25% CAGRs in the subsequent
five years are rare—there are only two obvious cases in recent decades: cable television in the 1980s (19%)
and broadband Internet access in the 2000s (29%). As in cannabis, the pioneers labored in obscurity for years
and then saw transformative events supercharge growth rates: satellite-delivered networks like CNN and HBO
for cable sytem operators, broadband connectivity for internet service providers, adult-use legalization for
23 cannabis producers and retailers.
The cannabis industry has much to learn from other consumer goods industries that have seen solid,
if not quite so spectacular, growth in recent decades. That is especially true of other retail-focused
businesses with a culture of connoiseurship, such as specialty coffee (Starbucks), organic foods
(Whole Foods), and craft beers (Sam Adams).
This 5th Edition of The State of Legal Marijuana Markets will analyze:
• The key 2016 developments that impacted the future of the legal cannabis
business in North America and around the world
• The core drivers of consumer demand and the market growth ahead
• The economics, competitive dynamics and keys to success of the public and private
companies in the major sectors of the cannabis supply chain from cultivators to retailers
• The unique regulatory and market dynamics of each of the 50 states,
the District of Columbia, and Canada
The report, and the model upon which it is based, purposefully takes a conservative view of the size of the
existing illicit cannabis business to avoid overestimating the potential for the legal market now replacing it.
It also provides the context and logic behind the forecast of North American cannabis spending growing
from $6.9 billion in 2016 to $21.6 billion in 2021. Part of that context is the 10,000-year history of human
cannabis use, in which, as the Marijuana Policy Project argues, the eight decades of the prohibition era
now slowly ending will eventually prove to have just been “a blip.”