PROJECT

TOPIC: Socio Cultural and Economic Impact on Epidemic

and Vice versa

Submitted by,
Neethu Prasad
MBA BATCH B
CORONA VIRUS AND ITS SOCIO-CULTURAL
AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS
The World Health Organization’s decision Thursday to declare the novel
coronavirus an international public health emergency could stoke investors’
fears about the disease and the economic risks it poses.And yet, a short-term hit
to economic activity could be mitigated if the virus is contained more quickly
through mandatory and self-imposed quarantines.
The novel coronavirus has spread throughout China, and a handful of cases
have been confirmed in 18 other nations. As of Thursday, 9,692 cases of
coronavirus had been identified and 213 people had died.Declaring an
emergency means the WHO sees the disease as a serious global threat and will
ramp up international resources to combat it.The declaration doesn’t impose any
direct restrictions on businesses. In issuing the declaration, WHO specifically
emphasized it doesn’t recommend any new limits to trade or travel, including
border closures, traveler quantines and visa denials. Countries can still impose
their own travel restrictions — some already have — but WHO said it will ask
countries to reconsider those measures.
The virus first began to spread during the Lunar New Year celebrations, so
Chinese factories were already idle for the holiday. The government has now
extended the holiday through Feb. 2, but if factories remain shuttered for much
longer, it could end up causing major disruptions to global supply chains. China
accounts for about 20 percent of global manufacturing output.

Around the world, most businesses do not stockpile supplies but instead rely on
those supply chains to get their parts from China on a regular basis.

The virus’ spread also comes just as fears of a global economic slowdown were
starting to subside.
 Downgrades in economic forecasts

The outbreak has led major institutions and banks to cut their forecasts for the
global economy. One of the latest to do so is the Organisation for Economic Co-
operation and Development.

In a March report, the OECD said it downgraded its 2020 growth forecasts for
almost all economies.

China’s gross domestic product growth saw the largest downgrade in terms of
magnitude, according to the report. The Asian economic giant is expected to grow
by 4.9% this year, slower than the earlier forecast of 5.7%, said OECD.

Meanwhile, the global economy is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2020 — down

from the 2.9% projected earlier, said the report.
 Slowdown in manufacturing activity

The manufacturing sector in China has been hit hard by the virus outbreak.

The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index — a survey of

private companies — showed that China’s factory activity contracted in February,
coming in at a record-low reading of 40.3. A reading below 50 indicates
contraction.

Such a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing has hurt countries with close

economic links to China, many of which are Asia Pacific economies such
as Vietnam, Singapore and South Korea.  

Factories in China are taking longer than expected to resume operations, several
analysts said. That, along with a rapid spread of COVID-19 outside China, means
that global manufacturing activity could remain subdued for longer, economists
said.
The new coronavirus outbreak will be worse for the global economy, including
India. In the latest assessment, credit agency CRISIL's has revealed that novel
coronavirus is going to hit the Indian economy if it continues to the first quarter
of next fiscal. India is a net importer of China with 56 billion dollars.
China.
 "Shutdown of factories in China due to n-CoV is expected to negatively impact
the electronics industry in India as Indian players currently do not have the
capability to manufacture such semiconductors and components in the short
term, though some parts are sourced from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and
Germany, among others," rating agency CRISIL said in latest assessment report
on coronavirus.

Global Scenario
 Global Growth: The world's economy could grow at its slowest rate since
2009 this year due to the coronavirus outbreak, according to the Organisation
for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The OECD has
forecast growth of just 2.4% in 2020, down from 2.9% in November 2019
 Fall in Customer Demand: Some people are choosing to avoid activities
that might expose them to the risk of infection, such as going out shopping.
Restaurants, car dealerships and shops have all reported a fall in customer
demand.
 Travel Industry: The number of cases diagnosed is increasing around the
world every day. Thus, many countries have introduced travel restrictions to
try to contain the virus's spread, impacting the travel industry massively.
 Beneficiaries

o Consumer goods giant Reckitt Benckiser, for example, has seen a

boost in sales for its Dettol and Lysol products.The disinfectant is seen as
providing protection against the spread of the disease, although its
effectiveness has not yet been scientifically proven.
o The price of gold - which is often considered a "safe haven" in
times of uncertainty - has also increased. Its spot price hit a seven-year high
of $1,682.35 per ounce in February 2020.
Global Response
 The COVID-19 outbreak was declared a Public Health Emergency of
International Concern by the WHO on 30th January 2020.
 According to recommendations by the World Health Organization, the
diagnosis of COVID-19 must be confirmed by the Real Time- Polymerase
Chain Reaction (PCRT-PCR) or gene sequencing for respiratory or blood
specimens, as the key indicator for hospitalisation.
 $15 million dollars has been released from the UN’s Central Emergency
Fund to help fund global efforts to contain the spread of the COVID-19
coronavirus, particularly vulnerable countries with weak health care systems.
 Vaccines are being developed.
Indian Response
 The Indian government arranged for the evacuation of 366 Indian citizens
from Wuhan in a special Air India flight on 31st January 2020. The passengers
were placed under quarantine for a period of 14 days.

o A second batch of passengers, including seven Maldivan citizens

evacuated by the government, arrived from Wuhan on 1st February 2020.
The repatriated passengers were also monitored.
 The government has already introduced travel restrictions and suspended
visas from affected countries.
 A detailed containment plan has been shared with states. States have been
asked to identify possible isolation areas in hospitals that can accommodate
larger numbers.
 The Indian health minister advised people to approach the government
helpline numbers regarding the doubts related to symptoms of the deadly
disease. The situation is being monitored at the highest level.
 PCR Test: If PCR test is positive, the sample is sent to the National
Institute of Virology in Pune, which is the only government laboratory
currently doing genome sequencing, for final confirmation.
expected to have a significant impact, rating agency further added.

If the virus epidemic continues for a more extended period, Indian export to China would also
get hit, especially in the area like petrochemicals. India exports 34 per cent of its total
petrochemicals to China.
The coronavirus impact on the economy will be determined by how fast China can control
this epidemic.

The altered business environment is not limited to any particular sector, though
it affects some more than others, varying by country and reflecting the
economic structure. Effects are emerging in the primary sector, such as
agriculture, mining and forestry; in the secondary sector in manufacturing and
construction; and in the tertiary sector, usually tourism, financial services and
trade. The ripples of economic downturn are likely to cross-cut a range of
sectors. The crisis and economic downturn are influencing investment and
capital flows. In the public sector, implementation of large-scale projects has
been affected, both from a labour perspective and from financial incapacity to
meet costs owing to curtailed public revenue. In turn, this is cooling the
economy and feeding back into the downturn, possibly deterring foreign
investment, reducing the country’s stock of financial capital, increasing risk
ratings and affecting monetary and fiscal stability. From a continental
perspective, COVID 19 can also affect regional integration: suspension of trade
in goods and services can force traditional partners to look for alternative
sources to maintain supply undermining integration and setting back
economies’ moves towards transformation and greater productivity
Epidemics, pandemics, and economic prosperity Epidemic: “The occurrence in
a community or region of cases of an illness, specific health-related behaviour,
or other health-related events clearly in excess of normal expectancy. The
community or region and the period in which the cases occur are specified
precisely. The number of cases indicating the presence of an epidemic varies
according to the agent, size, and type of population exposed; previous
experience or lack of exposure to the disease; and time and place of
occurrence…Generally, a disease that exhibits large inter-annual variability can
be considered as epidemic.” (World Health Organization29) Pandemic: “An
epidemic occurring over a very wide area (several countries or continents) and
usually affecting a large proportion of the population.” (US Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention30) Endemic: "The constant presence of a disease or
infectious agent within a given geographic area or population group; may also
refer to the usual prevalence of a given disease within such area or group."
(World Health Organization31) The subject of this paper is epidemics and their
relationship to economic outcomes. Since pandemics are simply epidemics
spread over a wide area, a discussion of the two naturally goes hand in hand.
Endemicity, however, presents a slightly different situation. First, some diseases
that are endemic (such as malaria) periodically cause epidemics, as they break
out into, or become more prevalent in, a specific population. AIDS and
tuberculosis are also endemic in many areas. Each of these diseases, in part by
virtue of its endemicity, brings with it economic effects that are likely to be long
term and that have been the subject of much consideration. Epidemics are of a
more well-defined time and geographic scope. Their economic effects are more
likely to be short term, although they can also have long-term economic
consequences.

COVID-19 could affect the global economy in three main ways: by directly affecting
production, by creating supply chain and market disruption, and by its financial impact on
 firms and financial markets. However, a great deal depends on the public’s reaction to the
disease.

COVID-19 is a disease caused by a specific virus (SARS-CoV-2) and labeled in the press
“coronavirus” or “novel coronavirus.”

Much about the disease is not currently known. While public health officials are still
determining the medical impacts of the virus along with certain key characteristics, such as
the incubation period, we believe the economic impact will in part depend on how the public
reacts to the virus. Public reaction could allow the disease to spread more quickly and widely,
or it could create unnecessary costs.

US guidelines for preventing “pandemic influenza”

In 2017, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released guidelines for
the prevention of “pandemic influenza.” The CDC’s recommendations for
“nonpharmaceutical interventions” included:

 Voluntary home isolation of ill persons

 Voluntary home quarantine of exposed household members

 Social distancing (including school closures, social distancing in workplaces, and

postponing or canceling mass gatherings)

 Environmental measures (such as routine cleaning of frequently touched surfaces)1

Countries that implement similar CDC-style recommendations in relation to COVID-19 may

experience less dislocation, although there may still be an economic impact. School closures
and social distancing might reduce the available labor force in an area experiencing a
pandemic, for example. We might then observe mild rolling economic impacts as outbreaks
occur in various regions.

A severe public reaction in which local authorities or people themselves decide on extremely
strict measures in a given area could create significant economic costs, particularly in regions
and for industries that specialize in production that can’t be done virtually (such as
manufacturing). If many countries opt for this type of response, the impact on the global
economy could be quite large.
 Economic impact

COVID-19 could affect the global economy through three channels:

1. Direct impact on production. Chinese production has already been substantially

affected by the shutdown in Hubei province and other areas. Some other countries are also
beginning to feel a direct impact as their authorities put in place similar measures.

The slowdown in China has effects on exporters to China. China’s largest sources of imports
are Korea, Japan, and other Asian countries, according to the World Bank. 2 Thus, even
without new outbreaks of the disease, these areas will likely experience slow growth in the
first half of 2020.

2. Supply chain and market disruption. Many manufacturing firms rely on imported

intermediate inputs from China and other countries affected by the disease. Many companies
also rely on sales in China to meet financial goals. The slowdown in economic activity—and
transportation restrictions—in affected countries will likely have an impact on the production
and profitability of specific global companies, particularly in manufacturing and in raw
materials used in manufacturing. For companies that rely on intermediate goods from
affected regions, and that are not able to easily switch sourcing, the size of the impact may
depend on how quickly the outbreak fades. Small and medium-sized firms may have greater
difficulty surviving the disruption. Businesses tied to travel and tourism are facing losses that
are likely not recoverable.

3. Financial impact on firms and financial markets. Temporary disruptions of inputs

and/or production might stress some firms, particularly those with inadequate liquidity.
Traders in financial markets may or may not correctly anticipate or understand which firms
might be vulnerable. The resulting rise in risk might reveal that one or more key financial
market players have taken investment positions that are unprofitable under current conditions,
further weakening trust in financial instruments and markets. A possible (likely low-
probability) event would be a significant financial market disruption as participants become
concerned about counterparty risk. A somewhat more likely possibility is a significant
decline in equity markets and corporate bond markets, with investors preferring to hold
 government securities (particularly US treasuries) because of the uncertainty created by the
pandemic.

Scenarios

These potential scenarios are purely descriptive ideas about possible paths that the disease
outbreak, and the global economy, might take.

1. The worst is over. Transmission in China has slowed already. Although some isolated
outbreaks occur elsewhere, these do not create a massive spread of the disease. As the global
number of cases stabilizes, China’s economy returns to normal, and there is little impact
outside of some areas such as Iran that are not important for the global economy. China’s
GDP takes a big hit in Q1 2020 but bounces back in Q2 and Q3—although some of the lost
production is never replaced. Specific companies outside China experience short-term supply
disruptions, but the impact on the global economy is small and temporary.

2. Year of the virus. Although the spread of the disease in China slows, outbreaks occur
on a rolling basis around the world. Each outbreak requires slowing production in that area,
and in a globalized world, that means rolling disruptions to different regions and industries as
outbreaks occur and are controlled. The overall impact is to disrupt economic activity enough
to slow global growth substantially. Businesses that are nimble enough to manage switching
suppliers and that have enough liquidity to survive periods of low sales and revenue will have
a competitive advantage.

3. Global pandemic response. Economic centers around the world are subject to Wuhan-
style shutdowns as people panic over the spread of the virus. Uncoordinated decisions on a
country-by-country basis disrupt the movement of both people and goods. Global
manufacturing declines, as businesses with international supply chains can operate only
intermittently. Tourism and related businesses decline sharply, and tourism-based businesses
and regions suffer. It takes more than a year for the World Health Organization and the
United Nations to develop an accepted global response that prioritizes health measures based
on effectiveness and cost to the wider economy, and for this response to be accepted in the
major world economies. Global GDP stagnates, international trade falls, and a global
recession is a distinct possibility.

4. Financial crisis. Delayed shipments and production schedules create financial

problems for companies with heavy debts, especially in the United States. The decline in
global equity markets and flight from risk—investors selling assets such as high-yield bonds
and volatile stocks—exposes investors who have underpriced risk. Concern about
counterparty risk accelerates the decline and dries up liquidity in financial markets. Central
banks scramble to manage the problem. Financial markets—and the global economy—
recover after a V-shaped recession.

OTHER IMPACTS

INVESTMENT, SAVINGS AND PRIVATE CONSUMPTION

In the face of lowered public revenue and increased need for a sound
response, the Covid 19 crisis is diverting public spending from investment in
physical and human capital to health and other social spending. Foreign and
domestic private investments, too, are declining, largely out of panic. The
decrease in domestic investment is likely to continue over the medium term if
investors do not get financial support to resume activities. Authorities in all
three countries have reported postponed or suspended investment in major
projects in their countries. More widely, families’ consumption and savings
have been hit by the disease, though micro data are hard to come by, owing to
mortality and morbidity, and reduced economic activity, working hours and
income.

INFLATION, MONEY AND EXCHANGE RATES

Affected countries face inflationary pressures as the Covid 19 crisis spreads,

inducing a competitiveness problem for businesses and traders, and a fall in
purchasing power for households. External assets may decline and the local
currency depreciate with checks on foreign trade, and an appreciating US
dollar on boosted demand for a “safe haven” currency. The countries may
also see their import cover fall (the months of imports covered by currency
reserves). Central banks and ministries of finance may have to simulate
demand and prevent excessive currency depreciation (which feeds into
inflation).

PUBLIC FINANCE
As seen, one impact of Covid 19 is to lower public revenue and raise
expenditure, especially in health, putting further pressure on the fiscal
balance. This further weakens the state’s capacity to contain the disease or to
buttress the economy against wider impacts (primarily via fiscal stimulus).
Ultimately, countries face dependence on external support to bridge the gap.

DEBT BURDEN AND DEBT ALLEVIATION

Pledges and contributions are key to bridging the fiscal gaps generated by the
Covid 19 crisis. The assistance from the international community is laudable
and much needed to bridge financing gaps. However, with part of the
assistance as loans, the Covid 19 crisis could possibly aggravate the most
affected countries’ debt burdens. Still, it is crucial that the crisis not spark
debt distress nor offset any of the fiscal gains (mainly reduced debt servicing
and thus higher development spending) generated by these initiatives,
because these gains are crucial to poverty reduction and economic
transformation.

POVERTY AND INEQUALITY

In the short term, the epidemic is likely to widen income inequality and
increase poverty in the three countries by impoverishing directly affected
individuals and families, and by reducing consumption and access to basic
social services, especially among the poor. In the longer term, the disease’s
effect on GDP growth may well be felt on GDP per capita. And given that
income distribution is already highly unequal, it is extremely likely that the
poor will be hit hardest—undermining the socio- economic development
gains of recent years.

Beyond the health sector, provision of social services has been restricted to control the
spread of the disease. The provision of social protection schemes and social safety nets
may also be affected both operationally and from an outcome perspective. The interruption
of delivery—owing to shifted resources or lack of capacity to respond to emerging health
needs—can disrupt productive safety nets and affect ongoing community initiatives that
require continuity for success. Asset-building and cash-transfer programs become a
fundamental element of the livelihoods of the most vulnerable, and their volatility and
discontinuation can affect the overall gains of social outcomes, and even reverse the
progress achieved over many years.

Educational services have also been reduced: the immediate budget losses are not yet
known—because teachers’ and others’ wages still need to be paid and facilities
maintained. Many of these recurring operational costs are still borne by the government.
Nor are the immediate impacts on educational outcomes known. Further out the
consequences could well be far- reaching, as the lack of educational activity may increase
the probability of dropping out of school, as older children engage in support activities and
take a bigger role in providing for the household’s livelihood. The lost educational years
may also have a life-long impact on the person’s income and perpetuate the
intergenerational cycle of poverty. The future productivity losses on lower education of
those who do not return to school will also require an incremental investment, just to bring
the education system to its pre-outbreak status. The COVID 19 outbreak therefore has
potential indirect impacts on human capital formation through deteriorated educational
outcomes by affecting enrolment, age-appropriate attendance and educational grade
achievements for different cohorts of the population. Further, school facilities will have to
be brought back to operational readiness when educational services are resumed,
increasing the outbreak’s economic impact on educational budgets.

INTANGIBLE EFFECTS

Given the complexity and evolving nature of Covid 19, the disease generates “intangible
effects” for social cohesion, stigmatization, governance and security, and risk perceptions.
When evaluated with the social and economic impacts of Covid 19, the intangible effects
could worsen the humanitarian crisis in the immediately affected region.

Social cohesion. Since the outbreak of Covid 19, social gatherings such as weddings,
church meetings, funeral ceremonies and many communal activities have either been
abandoned or drastically reduced in all the affected countries. This has serious
implications for the social cohesion and trust that act as a glue in society, particularly for
post-conflict countries such as Italy, China, Spain, India etc. If not properly managed, this
outcome has the potential to reverse gains made in establishing peace and social stability
after the end of the civil war in the two countries.
Crucially, unless appropriate information and advice are provided to the public on broad
measures for containing the disease, the foundations of social cohesion might be disrupted
through community isolation and stigma—a recipe for instability in affected and
surrounding areas.

Stigma: For instance, medical personnel (doctors, nurses and clinical officers) can be
stigmatized by communities as they are perceived to be vectors of the disease and hence
people do not want anything to do with them. This prejudice could well aggravate the
spread of Covid 19 as people shun health facilities for fear of coming into direct contact
with medical staff.

At an institutional level, quarantining patients and suspected victims of Covid 19 though

necessary for containing the spread of the disease—can lead to violation of fundamental
human rights through imposed restrictions on movement of people and restrictions on their
economic activities.

For isolation measures to work, they should be part of a comprehensive package to include
sustenance of the patients and their immediate families through provision of basic needs,
such as food and water for sanitation. They must also be carried out after close
consultation with communities to avoid a backlash through unintended outcomes such as
community denial and concealment of suspected cases, putting more people at risk.
Otherwise, isolating affected people and communities can reinforce stigma, possibly
leading to violence. Communities and individuals should be given the right information on
the modes of transmission and the supporting mechanisms for those already infected.

POVERTY AND INEQUALITY

In the short term, the epidemic is likely to widen income inequality and increase poverty
in the three countries by impoverishing directly affected individuals and families, and by
reducing consumption and access to basic social services, especially among the poor. In
the longer term, the disease’s effect on GDP growth may well be felt on GDP per capita.
And given that income distribution is already highly unequal, it is extremely likely that the
poor will be hit hardest—undermining the socio- economic development gains of recent
years.
Impact at community level

Where epidemics are confined to communities which is often the case – resources are
redirected from elsewhere to help stem the epidemic. While this might be well-
intentioned, it could be viewed as restrictive and discriminatory. The consequences of this
might include social unrest, a breakdown in social norms, and disruption in social life.

In addition other services, especially preventive care at the community level can suffer.
This exposes entire communities to other health challenges. During the Ebola outbreak in
West Africa service delivery reduction for other conditions was estimated at 50%. This
resulted in a sharp rise in deaths from preventable conditions, such as measles. Another
consequence is that people’s social lives are disrupted. For example, funeral processes are
sometimes banned and other social activities and festivities restricted.

The result of this was that local communities had to be taken through alternative ways of
safely interring their loved ones in a dignified manner. While it was not an overnight
success, the number of infections stemming from the handling of corpses reduced
significantly. Coping with epidemics also has a political consequence. In the DRC national
elections were delayed in the eastern region owing to the heightened risk of Ebola
infection. Citizens also tend to feel that their governments are not acting fast enough
especially when infection rates seem to be skyrocketing. This leads to resentment and
instability.

Dealing with the unexpected

There are instances when epidemics are hard to manage because of unforeseen
circumstances or unexpected consequences. The Covid 19 outbreak in the DRC is a case
in point. The eastern region of the country has experienced armed insecurity for decades.
Millions of lives have been lost. The presence of the central government – its influence
and administrative authority in the region remains weak.

Insecurity and expansion of the epidemic seem to be mutually reinforcing and fuelling
each other. Due to the violence that has been directed at both the civilian population and
the healthcare system in recent months, there have been massive displacements. This in
turn has hampered service provision and seeking of professional health assistance. Eight
months into the epidemic, rebels in DRC were reported to have murdered some health
professionals, as well as demolishing a treatment and containment center. The probability
of the occurrence of emerging and re-emerging epidemics is high, and the potential
impacts are grave. As human beings, we can only hedge against this through prevention,
active surveillance, awareness creation, developing effective methods of containment, as
well as developing new vaccines. The international community must invest more in
healthcare systems.

Social factors in physical and mental health:

Early life experiences are known to be key determinants of mental and physical health.
The Adverse Childhood Events scale identifies experiences in childhood associated with
increased risk of poor health in adult life, including domestic violence, abuse, deprivation
and parental divorce. However, it is also recognized that not all people who experience
adverse events in their early childhood will go on to have health problems. Factors
associated with resilience during the formative years, such as feeling loved or having an
adult in the household who cares about the child’s education, can mitigate the effects of
adverse experiences. Throughout the life course, social support at a number of levels is
crucial to enabling individuals to manage difficult or stressful circumstances. Among
working age adults, employment is one of the most strongly evidenced determinants of
health – not just in terms of the social and health consequences of employment or
unemployment, but the impact of the work itself.

Cultural factors and lay health beliefs

The findings of sociological research into lay health beliefs which focus on discovering
the rules and meanings that different social groups use to order their lives and make sense
of their experience of health and illness have been of great value to clinicians. Such
findings demonstrate the sophistication and complexity of lay beliefs about health, and
point to the need for health professionals not to treat patient views as merely 'incorrect
knowledge' and so improve the patient-professional relationship.

Family relationships and social support

Social science research has suggested that the relative quality of individual and group
social relationships serve to act as psycho-social mediators in health outcomes. The quality
of these relationships is seen to reflect the degree to which individuals possess or have
access to a wide set of social networks and a shared set of social norms. The findings from
a wide range of epidemiological studies have concluded that social and psychological
stress is one of the major factors impacting upon an individual's ability to maintain their
 health. Sociological and social psychological research has concluded that whilst we all
experience such stresses or 'life events', their effects are magnified for those individuals
and social groups that have limited social support, a limited ability to control one's social
situation / environment, poor social networks, and low levels of social integration.

Social Support

This construct focuses attention upon the importance of inter-personal relations. It

encapsulates notions of emotional support, instrumental aid, information giving and
personal appraisal. However, as a construct it can lack a certain amount of clarity.

Social psychologists see sources of social support as deriving from social networks. The
importance of these networks lies in their function as a 'buffer' against the negative impact
of stressful life events - helping people to adapt. The importance of social support for
health is highlighted, with loneliness and social isolation linked to premature mortality and
increased risk of depression. Strong social networks are associated with increased
happiness and health, and better recovery from illness; in addition, social participation
may act as a protective factor against dementia and cognitive decline. The lack of social
support as negatively related to health and health inequalities is recognized as a public
health issue by the Department of Health. Social Care Outcomes Framework was updated
to include a measure of social isolation, in order to identify where older adults are more
likely suffer from loneliness and target care appropriately.

No Health without Mental Health also emphasizes the importance of social inclusion and
support to improve mental health in citizens and communities. The recent outbreak of
COVID-19 coronavirus has become a worldwide crisis, behaving like “the once-in-a-
century pathogen” (Gates, 2020). The situation in Italy and South Korea is almost out of
control, while Iran, Japan and other countries are all in danger of facing major outbreaks.

CONCLUSION

 it is tempting to believe the world has already witnessed the worst epidemics.
With increasing trade, travel, population density, human displacement,
migration and deforestation, however, as well as climate change, a new era in
the risk of epidemics has begun. The number and diversity of epidemic events
has been increasing over the past 30 years, a trend that is expected to intensify.

The world is poorly prepared for even modest biological threats. We are
vulnerable to potentially huge impacts on individual lives, societal well-being,
economic activity and national security. Meanwhile, revolutionary new
biotechnologies promise miraculous advances, but also create daunting
challenges of oversight and control that, if unaddressed, stand to further
transform the landscape of biological risks.

Globalization has made the world more vulnerable to societal and economic
impacts from infectious-disease outbreaks. One estimate of potential pandemics
for the 21st century puts the annualized economic costs at $60 billion; this
includes the imputed value of life-years lost. Another estimate puts the cost of
pandemic influenza alone at $570 billion per year, which places it in the same
order of magnitude as climate change.