PEB 702 ENGINEERING & SOCIETY

B Engineering, Year 3.
Semester 1 2019
Sit work/tutorial exercise #2. Forecasting

QUESTIONS: 30 marks
1. Given the weekly demand data, what are the exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2-
10 using α=0.10 and α=0.60. Compare the forecast results through a graph.
(10marks)

Week Demand

1 820

2 775

3 680

4 655

5 750

6 802

7 798

8 689

9 775

10 ?

Sit work forecasting Page 1 of 2

2. The manager of a computer company had given the instructions to the inventory
department to submit to him the inventory stocks of computers. He wants to forecast
the demands for deliveries during the month November. The company has an inventory
of materials for the last 10 months. The records shown were as follows: (20 marks)

Month Demands
January 120
February 90
March 100
April 75
May 110
June 50
July 75
August 130
September 110
October 90
November ?

i. Solve for the monthly demand forecast for February to November using the
Naïve method.
ii. Solve for monthly demand forecast for April through November using a 3 -month
moving average.
iii. Compute the monthly demand forecast for June to November using a 5- month
moving average.
iv. Compute the monthly demand forecast for April through November using a 3
month weighted average. Use weights 0.5, 0.33, and 0.17.
v. Compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for June through October for each
of the methods used. Which method would you use to forecast demand for
November?
vi. Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing parameter of α=0.3 to compute
the demand forecast for December? Use D(Nov)=90

Sit work forecasting Page 2 of 2