A PRESENTATION ON

CEB703
Water Resources Engineering

Frequency Analysis

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 Hydrologic design centers around runoff, not the rainfall that generates the
runoff or the watershed processes that transform the rainfall into runoff.

 The relationship between the cross-sectional area of the stream (A) and the
average velocity of flow (V), are related by the continuity equation

q = AV, where “q” is the discharge rate.

 It is important to note that A in the continuity equation is the cross-sectional

area of the stream and not the drainage area of the watershed, which is
also commonly denoted by A.

 As the depth of flow during a storm increases, both the cross-sectional area
of the stream and the average velocity of flow will increase. The
relationship between the depth of flow and the discharge is often assumed
to have the following form: 𝑞 = 𝑎ℎ𝑏 in which h is the depth of flow and a
and b are constants for a particular stream section.
 Since the future occurrences of a random variable cannot be predicted
exactly, the concepts of probability are used to describe its expected
behavior.

 Runoff can also be viewed as a random variable, so the concept of

frequency applies to runoff characteristics as well as to rainfall
characteristics.

 The peak of the discharge hydrograph is an important design variable, so

the frequency of a peak discharge plays a central role in hydrology.

 Engineers commonly estimate the 100-yr peak discharge in their design

work. The frequency concept for runoff can be discussed in terms of either
the return period or the exceedance probability.
Methods of estimating peak discharge rates:
 those intended for use at sites where gaged stream flow records are available
 those intended for use at sites where such records are not available.
 Statistical frequency analysis is the most commonly used procedure for the
analysis of flood data at a gaged location also called as "flood frequency
analysis.'‘

 However, statistical frequency analysis can also be applied to other

hydrologic variables such as rainfall data for the development of intensity-
duration-frequency curves and low-flow discharges for use in water quality
control. The variable could also be the mean annual rainfall, the peak
discharge, the 7-day low flow, or a water quality parameter.
 Frequency of a hydrologic event is the probability that some value of a
discrete variable will occur or some value of a continuous variable will be
equaled or exceeded in any given year.

 Frequency is probability and has no units.

 Reciprocal of frequency is return period with unit in “years”.
Return Period:

A return period, also known as a recurrence interval (sometimes repeat

interval) is an estimate of the likelihood of flood or a river discharge flow to

occur.

For example, a 10 year flood has a 1/10=0.1 or 10% chance of being

exceeded in any one year. This does not mean that if a flood with such a

return period occurs, then the next will occur in about ten years' time -

instead, it means that, in any given year, there is a 10% chance that it will

happen, regardless of when the last similar event was.

Return Period is a statistical measurement typically based on historic data

and is usually used for risk analysis (e.g. to decide whether a project should

be allowed to go forward in a zone of a certain risk, or to design structures

to withstand an event with a certain return period).

 Graphical Frequency Analysis
Methods:

1. California Method
2. Weibull Method
3. Hazen’s method etc.
Weibull Method

In probability theory and statistics, it is a continuous probability distribution

 Most commonly used method
 If ‘n’ values are distributed uniformly between 0 and 100 percent probability,
then there must be n+1 intervals, n–1 between the data points and 2 at the
ends.

Probability, P = m / n+1 where, m = rank

Example
 Frequency Analysis using
Frequency factors
Methods:

1. Normal Distribution
2. Gumbell Method
3. Log Normal distribution
4. Log Pearson Type III distribution etc.
Log Pearson Type III Distribution Method:

Person (1930) developed this method. In this method, it is recommended to

convert the data series to logarithms and then compute the following.

1. Compute Logarithms of flow log Q

2. Estimate Average of log Q = log

3. Compute Standard Deviation σ log Q

4. Compute Skew Coefficient,

Cs = (N Σ (log Q – log )3) / (N-1)(N-2) (σ log Q)3

5. QT = log + K (σ log Q)

where K = log Pearson Frequency Factor based on Cs & Return Period

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