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An Artificial Neural Network/Fuzzy Logic system for DMA flow meter data
analysis providing burst identification and size estimation

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An Artificial Neural Network/Fuzzy Logic system for DMA flow meter
data analysis providing burst identification and size estimation
S.R. Mounce, J.B. Boxall & J. Machell
Pennine Water Group, Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.

ABSTRACT: This research demonstrates the application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Fuzzy
Logic for the detection and classification (leakage rate) of pipe bursts from DMA flow data. In contrast to ex-
isting methodologies that are reliant on human data analysis and interpretation, this automated approach is
able to provide efficient and consistent analysis of large data volumes. This Artificial Intelligence (AI) analy-
sis system was applied to a validation data set (generated by simulated flushing) to verify the burst estimation
capability and then to data from an eight month period of operational flow data. The technique successfully
identified and estimated the magnitude of burst events; some of which could not have been detected by man-
ual analysis. The results of the study show that the ANN system is a powerful tool for input-output mapping
and, when integrated with near real time communications, could be effectively used for rapid determination of
abnormal flow levels.

1 INTRODUCTION the government has only a decade to put things right

Water resources in areas of the United Kingdom are
threatened by below average rainfall in the short-
term and climate change in the longer-term. The
South East of England was in the grip of water
shortages over the summer of 2006, with one com-
pany enforcing a drought order controlling use of
water and a number of others enforcing hosepipe
bans. The use of already limited resources in these
areas is also facing increasingly tight regulation in
order to meet ever-higher ecological requirements
such as the European Water Framework Directive
(WFD) that prescribes that the ecology of rivers,
lakes and wetlands should be restored by 2015 (EU,
2000). Simultaneously, demand for water is increas-
ing because of population growth (government pol-
icy predicts over four million homes to be built by
2016, many in the SE of England), a decreasing av-
erage household size and growing use of water-
intensive appliances.
In its State of the Nation report for 2006 (ICE,
2006), the Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE) ad-
vised recycling of more sewage effluent as drinking
water and also called for a 20% rise in water prices
to fund improved supply. ICE's chairman, Gordon
Masterton, predicted that there would be a massive
shortfall in around 20 years “if we do nothing at all
about securing our water supplies”. More recently, a
coalition of conservation and angling groups
claimed that Britain's water systems are in crisis and
(Blueprint for water, 2006). A 10-point plan to make
UK water systems sustainable was proposed includ-
ing fair pricing, the metering of all homes by 2020
and personal allowances.
The main options for significantly increasing the
amount of water available for supply are as follows:
construction or extension of reservoirs; increased
use of desalination; reduction in leakage; water
transfer; use of grey water and sewer mining (35%
of water supplied to domestic properties is used for
toilet flushing). The public have been repeatedly
urged to use less water and demand management
certainly has a role to play in tackling the issue.
However, recent droughts have exposed the vulner-
ability of some UK companies in maintaining sup-
plies and this has led to a high profile of leakage in
the media. Current levels of leakage from the distri-
bution network are higher than target levels in parts
of the country; this has a negative impact on the
public’s attitude to sensible water use.
Whilst current technologies by and large allow
leakage targets to be achieved, technologies for ac-
tive leakage control are under constant development,
and research (both in academia and industry lead) is
exploring better solutions for identifying and repair-
ing leaks. Water UK informed the House of Lords
Science and Technology Committee (House of
Lords, 2006) that much of the progress of the last
few years has been due to the development of new
pipe materials (generally plastics) which are less
susceptible to leakage, the increased use of valves
and remote sensors to manage pressures proactively,
and improvements in leak detection technology us-
ing microprocessors and wireless communications.
New instrumentation and telemetry systems are
providing increasingly large amounts of data and the
analysis of measured parameters can be used to de-
tect leaks. Advances in these areas, in communica-
tion cost, quality of data and lifetime of power
source, are resulting in water utilities starting to de-
velop online techniques for analysis of sensor data.
In the past, and it is still generally the case, the
mechanism for detecting events in the control room
has involved simple, flat line alarm levels on key
monitoring sites as well as offline nightline analysis
by water company personnel (WRC, 1994). By
monitoring night flows continuously, unusual
changes in water volumes can be detected. The night
flow minimum (NFM) is the lowest flow supplied to
a hydraulically isolated supply zone, usually meas-
ured between midnight and 5:00 am. The system op-
erator will generally decide, based on experience
with the particular water system, if the flow increase
is due to a leak. If new leaks are suspected, they can
be bracketed by step testing and then pinpointed by
acoustic methods. This technique can be effective,
however many leaks are actually found and fixed
due to customer contacts, adding unacceptably to the
poor image of water supply companies.
There is now a perceived need to undertake regu-
lar data analysis to identify new leaks as they occur,
including those not displaying obvious surface signs
of their presence. One way this can be achieved is
more intelligent ‘smart alarms’. This paper is con-
cerned with an Artificial Intelligence system for
burst detection from flow data. Uniquely it also has
the capability to provide an estimate of the leak size
allowing the water utility to prioritise repairs.
2 BACKGROUND
Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are computa-
tional architectures and algorithms from the area of
artificial intelligence. They use numeric and associa-
tive processing to mimic models of biological sys-
tems and are able to reproduce a complex, multidi-
mensional and non-linear physical phenomenon
without using explicit mathematical representation.
A small set of concepts which derive from biological
neural systems are used to implement software simu-
lations of massively parallel processes involving
processing elements (called artificial neurons) inter-
connected in a network architecture. ANNs are
trained to infer the future behaviour of a system, or
to classify current behaviour, by analysing data de-
scribing its past performance, so that problem solv-
ing is a matter of learning by example rather than
programming. This is especially attractive for appli-
cations where an understanding of the problem to be
solved is limited but where training data is readily
available. The value of neural network technology
includes its usefulness for pattern recognition, learn-
ing, classification, generalisation and abstraction and
the interpretation of incomplete or noisy data (fault
tolerance). It has been proved mathematically that
ANNs are universal computing machines capable of
arbitrary non-linear function approximation pro-
vided they are given sufficient training data (Hor-
nick, 1989). ANNs have been successfully applied in
fields as diverse as signal processing, fluid flow,
traffic flow, weather forecasting, financial markets
and crime patterns.
Despite their many advantages ANNs suffer from
one major limitation. Knowledge is represented in-
ternally in the network by a large number of real-
valued parameters i.e. the weights and biases of the
network. Consequently, the knowledge is not readily
accessible to human inspection and is, in any case,
virtually incomprehensible. Justifications for results
are difficult to obtain because the connection
weights do not usually have obvious interpretations.
An alternative AI approach is to develop an Expert
System in which the knowledge is encoded explic-
itly in a rules base. A Fuzzy Logic system is one
such approach. Fuzzy logic is a useful technique for
building systems that represent the impreciseness as-
sociated with human reasoning. Fuzzy sets can con-
tain elements with only partial degree of member-
ship. A fuzzy logic approach can be used to enable a
degree of certainty to be placed on a classification or
output. In contrast to conventional logic, proposi-
tions can be true to a certain degree – somewhere
between 0 and 1 (not quite the same as a probability,
but it could be termed a ‘subjective probability’). In
this way fuzzy logic is modelled in the way humans
see the world as we rarely see the world in an abso-
lute sense. The main components of the Fuzzy sys-
tem are the fuzzy membership functions (defined for
the set of variables in the system), the set of fuzzy
rules and the algorithms and strategies for defuzzifi-
cation (obtaining a single valued output). An exam-
ple of a fuzzy rule in a simple one input temperature
controller is “IF temperature IS cold THEN force IS
high”.
While fuzzy logic uses approximate human rea-
soning in knowledge-based systems, ANNs aim at
pattern recognition, prediction and optimisation. A
combination of these two technologies in order to
capitalise on the strengths of both delivers valuable
results.
3 AI SYSTEM
3.1 Theoretical basis
The aim of applying an ANN and fuzzy logic to the
analysis of flow data is to automate the detection of
abnormal events (primarily leakage). Flow sensor
data obtained from a water supply system is usually
in the form of time series – that is, a data stream
whose value is a function of time. Flow data will
usually be a continuous data stream sampled at a
regular time interval (typically 15 mins) so as to
produce a discrete series x t . A full theoretical basis
for modelling time series in this context using the
state-space model has been previously set out
(Mounce, 2003).
3.2 Implementation
Data from a particular sensor (typically the DMA
inlet) was modelled by an ANN that learned to fore-
cast the sensor output (a time series prediction). By
using historical training data for a particular DMA,
the usual distribution of values is learnt for that
DMA. A neural network model called the mixture
density network (MDN) as presented by Bishop
(1994) was utilised as the time series predictor.
Husmeier and Taylor (1998) have applied it and a
variant (DSM which uses a sigmoid as a kernel func-
tion) to time series prediction. An MDN is a mixture
density model combined with an ANN. It consists of
a two-hidden layer network; the first layer with sig-
moidal units, and the second with Gaussian units.
The target vector is clamped directly to the Gaussian
nodes and the network is trained using maximum
likelihood (minimizing the negative log of the likeli-
hood). The mechanism for adapting the network pa-
rameters is back-propagation of error as in a stan-
dard MLP ANN: the only difference being the error
function. Various parameters of the mixture models
(mixing coefficients, means and variances) are gov-
erned by the outputs of the neural network which
takes x as its input. Once the network has been
trained it can predict the conditional density function
of the target data for any given value of the input
vector. A GUI has been developed for applying the
MDN to water flow data using the NETLAB library
(MATLAB toolbox) (Nabney, 2001). Further details
of its application to water supply system data appear
in Mounce et al. (2003, 2005).
Time series predictors generally have no inbuilt
mechanism for subsequent classification. One meas-
ure of abnormality using time series prediction is the
ratio of observed vs. predicted values, with sustained
deviation indicating a burst or other abnormal flow.
Once trained the MDN predicts the conditional prob-
ability density function of the target data for any
given value of the input vector, rather than just a
point prediction, which is the case for most other
ANN models used for time series prediction. The
area under a probability density function curve
equates to probability. The mixture model previ-
ously discussed is a linear combination of compo-
nent densities (general normal distributions). A con-
fidence interval for the predicted value (specified by
the user) is computed from the mixture model.
The prediction generated by the MDN network
was used with the actual observed data to form a re-
sidual that was analysed by a classification module
that indicated abnormalities in its output (since de-
viation outside the confidence interval for a particu-
lar singular time step does not in practice indicate a
burst). This classification module was developed
with the MATLAB Fuzzy Logic toolbox and then
integrated with the MDN GUI application. Fuzzy in-
ference is a method that interprets the values in the
input vector and, based on some set of rules, assigns
values to the output vector. The fuzzy inference
methodology used is the Mamdani method (Mam-
dani and Assilian, 1975). As defined in MATLAB,
this expects the output membership functions to be
fuzzy sets. After the aggregation process, there is a
fuzzy set for each output variable that needs defuzzi-
fication (the Mamdani method finds the centroid of a
two-dimensional function). The output of each rule
is a fuzzy set. The output fuzzy sets for each rule are
then aggregated into a single output fuzzy set. Fi-
nally the resulting set is defuzzified, or resolved to a
single number between 0 and 1. Thus the FIS gives a
fuzzy logic value on the presence of a flow abnor-
mality within a windowed time period at a particular
confidence level. FIS of differing window sizes are
required for detection of different length events.
Previous results have indicated confidence of 80-
95% for small to medium leaks and 95%+ for larger
bursts. The FIS system was first described in
Mounce et al. (2006) and the reader is directed there
for further information.
The classification module was updated in this
work to also provide a burst level estimation, for
positive classifications. The methodology for esti-
mating leakage level for a particular burst classifica-
tion was to compare, over the window, the differ-
ence between the actual observed value and the
expected (i.e. predicted) value (the prediction used
was the centre of the highest component in the mix-
ture model). Therefore, the estimated average burst
rate can be expressed in equation 1 below:
1 w
ℜ∑ {T (i ) − Y (i )} (1)
w i =0
where w is the window size, Y the predicted
most likely value, T the observed value and ℜ a
function to reverse normalise the data back to raw
values.
4 VALIDATION DATA 4.2 Methods
Data acquisition and pre-processing was carried out
as described in previous work (Mounce 2003,
4.1 Introduction Mounce et al. 2006).
The MDN was trained using this pre-processed
For validation purposes the new system was first ap-
data set, using ANN parameters selected empirically
plied to a data set generated from a series of hydrant
from historic data training, in order to learn a one-
flushing events, since the flow (hence burst) rate was
day ahead time series prediction (mixture model dis-
known. The trial involved opening hydrants within a
tribution of the prediction). The test data was simi-
single DMA at various flow rates and logging the
larly assembled. A presentation was prepared for
sensor readings.
each simulated burst in which, except for the burst
The simulated bursts were created by fitting a
under consideration, the other bursts were factored
standpipe with an in-line flow gauge (Vernon Mor-
out by removing the known flush flow rates for their
ris) to a fire hydrant, and then opening the hydrant
durations (from Table 1). This was to avoid present-
slowly over a period of approximately one minute so
ing lagged data that included the flushing for predic-
that sediment within the pipes was not stirred up and
tion of the next day’s value during the time of the
water hammer effects were avoided until the re-
next burst.
quired flow rate was reached.
One change from the normal operating applica-
Four hydrants spread across the DMA were used
tion of the system was the length of events to be de-
sequentially. One hydrant was opened each evening
tected. Analysis of historic data sets had used a one-
for a period of between three and five hours and the
day ahead prediction distance and window size
flow rate was set at between 5 and 7 litres/sec; (ap-
(Mounce, 2005). One reason for this was that a good
proximately 10% of the maximum flow entering the
rule of thumb for abnormal flow (apart from very
DMA). Hydraulic model simulations were used to
large catastrophic levels) persisting before it could
determine flush rates such that the flow in any pipe
be classified as a burst was approximately one day.
was not raised to a level significantly above normal
Other events, such as industrial usage or fire fight-
daytime peak flow rate in order to ensure minimum
ing, can have a similar appearance especially at
customer impact and risk of damage to pipes.
night but only tend to last for 12-24 hours. However,
The flushing was conducted during the night
for this trial the events were of 3-5 hours duration,
when DMA pressure is maximum and consumption
which consequently required an alternative FIS ana-
flow rates are minimal. Real leaks commonly occur
lysing a different size window (10 values was se-
at this time, possibly as pressures in the system are
lected). This means that the module looks at win-
at a peak and temperatures are at their lowest. A
dows of 2.5 hours previous predictions
short duration flush was repeated at one of the sites
(distributions) and observed readings.
during the day. As applied here a simple NFM index (the ratio of
Each hydrant flush (simulated burst) was per-
NFM to the mean of NFM over a windowed period)
formed on separate consecutive nights because ear-
can used to provide an indication of a burst event.
lier burst trials that lasted a single evening involving
Essentially, index values significantly greater than
multiple events of between 30 and 40 minute dura-
unity correspond to abnormally high flow, though
tion (Mounce and Machell, 2006) had complicated
not necessarily a burst.
the interpretation of the hydraulic data, and necessi-
Normal NFM calculations (between 12 and 5am
tated higher rate of flow logging than is normally the
do not provide a useful measure in this case, since
case. In this case, a normal 15 minute logging inter-
the flushing did not cover this period. However, all
val was used (identical to the normal operational
of the simulated flushes were running between 10pm
logging frequency). Table 1 shows the details of the
and 1am so this period was used to calculate the av-
flushing events.
erage NFM ratio over the training set (for the raw
Table 1. Simulated burst details
data). A subtraction from the actual NFM for a par-
ticular date then gives an estimate of leakage (+ve)
Event Max Max Max Duration Total
flow flow flow of max flow
or an under consumption (-ve). Figure 1 graphs this
(l/s) start finish flow (litres) ratio for the burst evenings and nine successive
time time nights. Evidently, this measure is not particularly
Burst 1 14/5 6.00 20:58 02:00 5hr2min 108000 useful for burst detection for these types of events,
Burst 2 15/5 6.00 21:01 02:00 4hr59min 107000 without altering its computation to incorporate prior
Burst 3 16/5 7.00 22:00 01:59 4hr00min 102000 knowledge about event start and end times. The
Burst 3b 16/5 6.00 16:23 16:56 33min 11880
Burst 4 17/5 5.00 22:20 01:20 3hr0min 55000
NFM ratio level is fairly constant, close to unity and
a visual detection of the flushing is in no sense obvi-
ous.
 1.2 8.00
Table 2. Classification module detection of simulated bursts
1
7.00 Actual date Ac- AI classification AI NFM
6.00 and time of tual period with size size
0.8
event flow percentage esti- esti-
NFM ratio

5.00
size confidence mate mate

l/s
0.6 4.00

0.4
3.00 (l/s) (l/s) (l/s)
2.00 20:58pm- 6 21:00pm-03:15am 4.89 3.71
0.2 02:00am (14/15th May)
1.00
0 0.00 (14/15th May) 98%
15/05

16/05

17/05

18/05

19/05

20/05

21/05

22/05

23/05
21:01pm- 6 20:45pm-02:30am 6.77 5.36
02:00am (15/16th May)
NFM ratio Flush rate l/s (15/16th May) 99.7%
22:00pm- 7 21:30pm-03:00am 7.26 5.37
01:59am (16/17th May)
Figure 1: NFM ratio with flushing rates
(16/17th May) 99.7%
16:23 pm- 6 02:00pm- 5.64 N/A
4.3 Results and discussion 16:56pm 05:00pm (16th
(16th May) May) 91%
The MDN system was applied to data measured by 22:20pm- 5 22:00pm-02:00am 5.44 5.37
the DMA meter. Previous work (Mounce, 2003 & 01:20am (17/18th May)
(17/18th May) 99.7%
2005) resulted in an expectation of a confidence of
95% or more for classification of 5-7 l/s events in It should be noted that there is inherent uncer-
this size DMA. Figure 2 show the FIS output for one tainty of actual flow rate due to inaccuracy with the
of the events for the DMA, for 90%, 95% and 99% hydrant flow mater. However, a brief perusal of Ta-
confidence intervals. The graph plots the flush rate ble 2 reveals that the AI system estimate more
(dotted line) and the FIS output for a 2.5 hr time closely matched the recorded flush size than the
window beginning at that output point on the time NFM – the average error for the four main flushes
axis (with the normalised flow rate shown for refer- being approximately 10% for the AI system, and ap-
ence). The analysis successfully detected all the proximately double at 20% for the NFM based esti-
events. mate. The short duration day time event was also de-
99% 95% 90% Normalised flow Burst
tected with a good sizing, albeit with reduced
1 7.00
confidence.
0.9
6.00
0.8

0.7 5.00 5 CASE STUDY

0.6
Flush rate l/s
FIS output

4.00
0.5
3.00
0.4

0.3 2.00
5.1 Data acquisition
0.2
1.00
Historical data was collected from 10 DMAs in a
0.1
water supply system for an eight-month period. The
0 0.00
data consisted of time stamped files of 15 minute
12:00 AM

1:15 AM

2:30 AM

3:45 AM

5:00 AM

6:15 AM

7:30 AM

8:45 AM

10:00 AM

11:15 AM

12:30 PM

1:45 PM

3:00 PM

4:15 PM

5:30 PM

6:45 PM

8:00 PM

9:15 PM

10:30 PM

11:45 PM

1:00 AM

2:15 AM

3:30 AM

4:45 AM

6:00 AM

readings.
In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the
Figure 2: DMA flow meter FIS output for 14th – 15th May analysis, operational and minimum night flow data
(burst 1) versus flushing period was collected for comparison. A record of repairs
was obtained from the Repair and Maintenance
The classification module in MDNGUI takes the (R&M) database for the period of interest. The mag-
FIS output and applies a user-defined threshold in nitudes of the events recorded in this register were
order to make the burst classification. Table 2 pro- unknown; ranging from a major burst to a minor re-
vides the time details of the classification for the pair of a valve. Only operations specifically tagged
DMA flow sensor, which are the limits of all 2.5 hr as mains repairs were considered. The R&M record
windows classed as containing the simulated burst logs the repair completion time only, hence it was
(the first confidence level to contain the full extent unknown when a burst commenced from this infor-
of the burst). In addition, the actual leak size is pro- mation, both start and end information is produced
vided from the hydrant flow meter. Finally, an esti- by the AI analysis. The NFM ratio was calculated as
mate for leak level for the evening is obtained by us- for the validation set, though from mid-night to 5am.
ing the NFM ratio.
5.2 Methods
In order to make full use of the data sets, the time
series was bisected and used for both training and
testing. Each half of the data, comprising around 4
months of readings, was used once as the training set
and once as the test set. In this way the whole data
set could be analysed for bursts in an unseen man-
ner. However, it should be noted that the non-
stationarity of some sensor data was an issue (a time
series is described as stationary if the behaviour of
the series does not change with time i.e. the mean
and variance do not change over time). The MDN
was trained in accordance with the details in
Mounce et al. (2006).
The burst estimate from NFM ratio was calcu-
lated as for the validation data.
5.3 Results and discussion
Table 3 provides a summary of the results for the
complete 8 month historic case study. A row is in-
cluded in the table for any event in the R&M record
(corresponding to actual repairs) and any event de-
tected by the AI system with an 85% confidence and
above (using a threshold of 0.8 on the defuzzified
output for the 48 window FIS). The table also in-
cludes the NFM ratio for these events/detections, the
table does not necessarily include all NFM devia-
tions from unity. Two columns report the correlation
between the FIS and both the R&M record and NFM
ratio. The next two columns report the estimated
burst level for detected events for the AI system and
the corresponding calculation (as from the validation
set) from the NFM ratio. It should be noted that the
AI analysis is conducted over a window for historic
data, hence the burst estimate varies as abnormally
high flow enters this window. Hence the AI results
in table 3 provide the maximum estimated burst
level for the period with positive burst detection at
that confidence level.
From Table 3 it can be seen that the source data
for comparison is limited, with discrepancies be-
tween the logged repairs and the NFM ratio leading
to uncertainty over the occurrence or otherwise of
actual burst events. However, when the work record
and NFM agree that an event did occur, the AI
analysis, apart from two exceptions which were an
artifact of poor training sets, returned an event and
provided close agreement between the recorded
event end and repair times. The correlation between
the NFM and the AI analysis is predominately good
(i.e. indicating abnormal flow for the DMA but not
necessarily indicated in the repair record). It should
be noted that the AI column reports all events de-
tected by the system in the period of analysis (>85%
confidence) and the correlation with NFM suggests
minimal false positives. No false positives were re-
ported for the DMAs with complete test data sets, on
the basis of either an R&M record or significant
NFM ratio.
The results show that the positive classifications
by the AI system in some cases correspond to actual
bursts. Positive classifications then show a good cor-
relation between estimated burst size and the size
indicated by a simplistic NFM ratio. There were two
exceptions to this when very large magnitude bursts
were underestimated in size due to the technique
performing a truncation in the normalisation routine.
It will be possible to solve this problem by using raw
data direct from the database in the next version of
the software for the estimation (online operation).
It is difficult to assess actual system performance
with these types of data sets as the work record is
not comprehensive in the sense that not all events
will be recorded there. It is questionable how accu-
rately start and end times will be recorded. Further,
the size of burst that was repaired is unknown. It
should be noted that the validation data set only con-
tained flushing events during the night which it
might be argued make the events easier to detect,
whereas the case study data sets are not similarly re-
stricted and thus demonstrate that the technique is
effective irrespective of time of day that the burst
occurs.
The NFM ratio is a useful indication of abnormal
flow, however the ratio does not have a universal in-
terpretation since its meaning varies for different
meter areas, taking no account of the variation for a
particular meter. This means that a value of 1.1 may
indicate a very unusual event for one meter but not
for another (zone analysts do become familiar with
interpreting these values for particular DMAs). In
contrast, the MDN can predict the conditional prob-
ability density function of the future flow from the
past data (the input vector) and the density function
can then be used to assign a confidence to the ob-
served flow values. Hence, the MDN learns the dis-
tribution of a particular meter potentially leading to
improved analysis results.
For the case study, the training file was assem-
bled using all the data so that the whole data set
could be analysed for bursts in an unseen manner.
Although this provided satisfactory results, these can
be improved by retraining the ANN regularly with a
slightly updated data set for the DMA. In this way,
current conditions could be continually built into the
model – particularly with access to regular online
data. If conditions for the supply system being moni-
tored change drastically (e.g. valve position modifi-
cations), then the training set will need to be started
anew or generated using mathematical simulation
techniques.
The techniques described in this paper are only
applicable to ‘standard’ DMA, residential, and in-
dustrial monitoring points. The system has been ap-
plied as a first step to flow data only. Analysis
Table 3. ANN/FIS analysis burst detection for historical data set with estimated burst size
DMA R&M record repair NFM AI positive classification period % AI / R&M AI / NFM Burst esti- Burst esti-
date ratio Conf Agreement? Agreement? mate mate
NFM (l/s) AI (l/s)
DMA A MR35 24/11/05 0.94 None >85% - NO YES -
DMA B MR35 21/11/05 0.79 None >85% - NO YES -
MR35 26/11/05 1.20 None >85% - NO ? -
MR35 4/01/06 1.09 None >85% - NO YES -
MR35 9/03/06 1.12 None >85% - NO YES -
MR35 28/04/06 0.99 None >85% - NO YES -
MR35 4/05/06 1.00 None >85% - NO YES -
DMA C None 1.5-2 12/3-26/3 None >85% - YES NO -
DMA D None 19.81 06/03/06 09:15 – 07/03/06 00:45 99 NO YES 2.01 2.254
None 17.56 20/03/06 09:15 – 21/03/06 01:15 99 NO YES 1.77 2.203
DMA E MR35 19/04/06 1.08 None >85% - NO YES -
MR35 22/04/06 1.92 21/04/06 17:00 – 22/04/ 07:30 99.7 YES YES 0.73 2.124
DMA F None 1.39 30/12/05 18:45 – 31/12/05 06:45 85 NO YES 0.44 0.684
MR35 10/01/06 1.63, 1.55, 1.50 07/01/06 16:00 – 08/01/06 04:45 97 YES YES 0.71 0.999
MR35 26/01/06 1.31 None >85% - NO ? -
MR35 19/02/06 9.34 16/02/06 19:30 – 17/02/ 06 21:15 99.7 YES YES 9.40 2.592
(17/02 but cancelled)
DMA G MR35 24/12/05 1.62 23/12/05 14:00 – 24/12/05 06:15 96 YES YES 0.95 0.74
MR35 09/02/06 0.93 None >85% - NO YES -
MR30 12/05/06 19.38 11/05/06 21:15 – 12/05/06 11:45 99 YES YES 28.24 3.126
None 1.21 03/06/06 14:30 – 04/06/06 05:30 99 NO ? 0.33 0.602
DMA H MR35 22/11/05 0.87 None >85% - NO YES -
MR35 13/01/06 1.24, 1.19 None >85% - NO ? -
None 1.37 03/06/06 09:30 – 03/06/06 22:00 92 NO YES 0.60 1.301
DMA I None 1.65 27/12/05 20:45 – 28/12/05 11:15 97 NO YES 0.52 1.120
None 1.26 15/01/06 21:15 – 16/01/06 10:30 94 NO ? 0.21 0.940
None 1.75 19/02/06 18:30 – 20/02/06 07:15 99 NO YES 0.60 1.131
None 1.47 01/03/06 19:15 – 02/03/06 09:15 98 NO YES 0.37 1.055
None 1.29 27/04/06 08:30 – 27/04/06 21:15 97 NO ? 0.13 1.155
DMA J None 1.54 06/06/06 13:45 – 07/06/06 06:30 90 NO YES 0.34 0.708
within the context of the overall distribution system
is confused by lack of system knowledge and de-
tailed operational data. To obtain added value and a
clearer picture of events, future work will assemble a
system knowledge base able to interpret both flow
and pressure analysis (via a rules-based system).
These techniques will offer improved interpreta-
tion leading to better identification, for example in-
terpretation of results from cascading DMA struc-
tures reducing the potential of false alarms. The sys-
tems could also be readily expanded for other avail-
able data such as pressures and operational data i.e.
pump status and reservoir levels. It is envisioned that
this will be achieved through integration of ANN,
FIS and mathematical simulation of the network (su-
ing hydraulic modelling software) in order to pro-
vide wider system performance knowledge.
The work described does not rely on hydraulic
modelling software, however it is seen as a com-
ponent of an overall system that would include such
models for derivation of greater system knowledge.
It is proposed that the 'intelligent' analysis system
developed can be readily applied to an online en-
vironment providing the capability to proactively
manage water supply systems. This is being ex-
plored in conjunction with water company trials of a
GRPS communications system uniquely sup-plying
the temporal resolution and updating required.
6 CONCLUSIONS
− A system has been developed that can accept and
store flow data from external sources and auto-
matically convert it into useful operational infor-
mation i.e. for the detection and size estimation of
bursts. Benefits include: robustness to noisy or
incomplete data; large capacity for routine and
repeatable analysis; data driven self learning and
updating; confidence interval for classifications
produced.
− A validation data set (from a series of artificial
flushing trials) demonstrated the accuracy of size
estimation routines. The error for estimation of
the actual flushing rate was only approximately
10% for the AI system compared to that of
around 20% from a calculation based on an Night
Flow Minimum (NFM) ratio.
− The system was successfully applied to a case
study. A significant number of events detected by
the AI system were exactly correlated with re-
pairs described in the repair and maintenance da-
tabase. A higher number were also correlated
with the NFM ratio: an indicator of abnormal
flow for the DMA but not necessarily captured in
the repair data base. From the combined correla-
tion with the repair and maintenance database and
NFM no false positives were reported. The leak
size estimates correlated closely with an estimate
View publication stats
based on NFM ratio although the actual burst rate
was unknown.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors wish to acknowledge the support given for this re-
search by Yorkshire Water Services Ltd., UK.