Public Opinion Poll

Bosnia and Herzegovina

APRIL 2019

1 © 2015 Ipsos.
 METHODOLOGY
2 © 2015 Ipsos.
METHODOLOGY
DATA COLLECTION SAMPLING ERROR
• 9 April – 29 April, 2019 • +/- 2.2% on full sample

METHOD • +/- 3.1% at entity level

• Quantitative face to face survey within households SAMPLE TYPE

• Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI method) • Stratified sample

POPULATION STRATIFICATION
• Population of Bosnia and Herzegovina aged 18+ • Within each entity the sample was stratified by region and
settlement type
SAMPLE FRAME
• Address registry
STEPS OF RANDOM SELECTION
• Step 1: Random selection of starting points
SAMPLE SIZE
• Step 2: Random selection of households (random route technique)
• N=2,012 (904 in RS, 1,108 in FBiH including oversample in
Croat majority areas) • Step 3: Random selection of respondents within HH (Kisch scheme)

• Data are weighted where necessary (by region, age, gender

and education) to reflect the true population allocation
according to the 2013 census
3 © 2015 Ipsos.
 OVERVIEW

4 © 2015 Ipsos.
Citizens see the country moving in the wrong direction.

Statewide FBiH RS

87% 86%
81%

11% 15%
9%

RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG DIRECTION DK/REF

2018 9% Right Direction 87% Wrong Direction
2017 6% Right Direction 91% Wrong Direction
2016 9% Right Direction 88% Wrong Direction
2015 7% Right Direction 85% Wrong Direction
Generally speaking, do you think that things in Bosnia and Herzegovina
are moving in the right or wrong direction?
Base: Total N=2012
2018 8% Right Direction 90% Wrong Direction
2017 5% Right Direction 93% Wrong Direction
2016 13% Right Direction 83% Wrong Direction
2015 7% Right Direction 87% Wrong Direction
Generally speaking, do you think that things in FBiH are moving in the
right or wrong direction?
Base: FBiH Total N=1108
2018 16% Right Direction 78% Wrong Direction
2017 17% Right Direction 73% Wrong Direction
2016 16% Right Direction 78% Wrong Direction
2015 13% Right Direction 76% Wrong Direction
Generally speaking, do you think that things in RS are moving in the right
or wrong direction?
Base: RS Total N=904

5 © 2015 Ipsos.
Most citizens do not believe their futures will improve.

BETTER
Bosniak 28%
15%
Serb 23%

Croat 36%

28% WORSE
18-29 21%
55%
30-44 24%
SAME
45-59 33%

60+ 31%

Thinking about the next year, do you expect that your life and the lives of your family members will be better, worse or the same as today?
6 © 2015 Ipsos.
 Federation respondents remain focused on unemployment,
while political and corruption concerns rise.
51%
Unemployment 40%
29%
14%
Corruption and crime 7%
17%
9%
Political Situation / Politicians 12%
13% 2017 2018 2019
7%
Poverty and economic situation 13%
14%
6%
The outflow of population 7%
6%
4%
OTHER (<2%) 7%
12%

What would you name as the two biggest problems that FBiH is facing today?
7 © 2015 Ipsos.
 Unemployment remains a top concern in the RS, while
other issues become increasingly important.
55%
Unemployment 46%
35%
13%
Corruption and crime 10%
14%
4%
Political Situation / Politicians 4%
8% 2017 2018 2019
11%
Poverty and economics situation 14%
19%
5%
The outflow of population 8%
10%
4%
OTHER (<2%) 7%
16%

What would you name as the two biggest problems that RS is facing today?
8 © 2015 Ipsos.
 EU ACCESSION
PROCESS
9 © 2015 Ipsos.
Support for EU accession remains strong among Bosniaks
and Croats, and slightly favored among Bosnian Serbs.

SUPPORT OPPOSE

88%
Bosniak
10%
2018 77% Support 17% Oppose
2017 75% Support 21% Oppose 54%
Serb
2016 72% Support 23% Oppose 75% 21% 39%
2015 73% Support 24% Oppose
75%
Croat
21%

Do you personally support or oppose BiH accession to EU?

10 © 2015 Ipsos.
Most citizens, with the exception of Bosnian Serbs, believe
EU membership would improve the economy.

63%
44% Improve
76%
22% Bosniak
19% 21%
13%
3% 46%
Serb
51%
Would improve a great deal Would improve somewhat
51%
Croat
Would not improve much Would not improve at all 45%

To what degree do you believe that EU membership would improve economic conditions and life in general for BiH citizens?
11 © 2015 Ipsos.
Supporters of EU accession are not satisfied with progress
toward membership in the bloc.

36%
28% 27% 43% Satisfied
7%
55% Dissatisfied
2%

Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied

Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied

How satisfied are you with the progress made toward BiH EU accession?
12 © 2015 Ipsos.
Supporters of EU accession doubt the intentions of political
leaders regarding their work towards EU accession.
NO

39% YES

9% 45%
Some are/Some are not
60%

44%
No
26% FBiH
RS
50%

SOME ARE/SOME
ARE NOT

Do you believe that political leaders and parties are working in good faith to achieve EU accession?
13 © 2015 Ipsos.
 MEDIA/
PUBLIC
BROADCASTING
14 © 2015 Ipsos.
Opinion is split on whether media provide accurate and
impartial information.
SOMETIMES

38% Generally Yes: 50%

Generally No: 49%

33% NOT VERY OFTEN

Bosniak: 41% - 58%

12% Serb: 52% - 47%
ALMOST ALWAYS 16% Croat: 60% - 39%
ALMOST NEVER

Generally speaking, do the media in BiH provide you with accurate and impartial information?
15 © 2015 Ipsos.
Respondents believe media disinformation exists and they
see it negatively…
YES YES
(DISINFORMATION (DISINFORMATION
EXISTS) CAUSES PUBLIC
86% 93% CONFUSION)

11% NO 4%
(DISINFORMATION
NO DOES NOT CAUSE
(DISINFORMATION PUBLIC
DOES NOT EXIST) CONFUSION)

Do you believe disinformation exists in media coverage of social, political and economic issues?/Do you think disinformation in the media causes confusion in the public
about the basic facts of current events and issues?
16 © 2015 Ipsos.
 …with little difference between Federation and RS
respondents.

Yes (disinformation does exist) 93% Yes (disinformation causes 93%

82% public confusion) 93%

No (disinformation does not exist) 6% No (disinformation does not

13% 5%
cause public confusion) 3%
DK/REF 1%
4% Total DK/REF 2%
4%

FBiH RS

Do you believe disinformation exists in media coverage of social, political and Do you think disinformation in the media causes confusion in the public about the
economic issues? basic facts of current events and issues?
17 © 2015 Ipsos.
Citizens point to political influence as the biggest obstacle to
media freedom.
66%
Political influence 64%
69%
19%
Financial dependence 20%
18%
11%
Lack of professionalism 12%
10%
Total FBiH RS
1%
Something else 1%
2%
3%
DK/REF 3%
2%

In your opinion, what is the biggest obstacle to freedom of media in BiH?

18 © 2015 Ipsos.
Citizens are dissatisfied with public broadcasting.

FBiH 33% Bosniaks 42%

BHT 4% 28% 21% 22% 4% 21% Croat 14%
RS 30% Serb 23%

FBiH 38% Bosniaks 46%

FTV 7% 28% 21% 21% 4% 20% Croat 19%
RS 30% Serb 24%

FBiH 14% Bosniaks 19%

RTRS 4% 22% 18% 24% 5% 27% Croat 8%
RS 47% Serb 49%

Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat unsatisfied

Not satisfied at all DK/REF Never watch a particular station

How satisfied are you with the overall quality of programming offered by the following public broadcasters?
19 © 2015 Ipsos.
 Public broadcasters are broadly perceived as partisan.

FBiH 62% Bosniaks 59%

BHT 66% 18% 17% Croat 72%
RS 71% Serb 72%

FBiH 62% Bosniaks 59%

FTV 65% 18% 17% Croat 67%
RS 70% Serb 73%

FBiH 66% Bosniaks 67%

RTRS 67% 16% 17% Croat 68%
RS 69% Serb 69%

Politically biased organization Professional journalistic organization DK/REF

Overall, do you consider each of these public news outlets to be professional journalistic organizations or politically biased organizations?
20 © 2015 Ipsos.
Citizens recognize the importance of media freedom.

Public broadcasters’
editorial policy
FBiH 77% 23%
RS 87% 13%
Public broadcasters’ editorial policy should be
independent and impartial 81% OR should follow
government
19%
guidance

Political influence on public broadcasters There is not much

FBiH 73% 27%
RS 84% 16% is huge
77% OR political influence on
public broadcasters
23%

Public broadcasters
FBiH 63% 37% Public broadcasters (BHT, RTRS, FTV) contribute to ethnic (BHT, RTRS, FTV)
RS 80% 20% tension in BIH 70% OR contribute to ethnic
30%
reconciliation in BiH

FBiH 64% 36% Due to the importance of public Public broadcasters should
RS 53% 47% broadcasters, government should
financially support their work
60% OR be financed solely by the
subscription fee
40%

Which of the statements above come closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly correct?
21 © 2015 Ipsos.
Citizens want robust oversight over public broadcasting.

Bosniaks 58% An independent body of

DK/REF Serb 71% media experts chosen by 51%
Croat 46% journalists associations

11%
An outside /
nongovernmental oversight 29%
committee

NO
28%
Multiparty Parliamentary
11%
61% oversight committee
YES

DK/REF 9%

Since these public broadcasters receive public funding, do you believe they should be If Yes: What would be the most effective way to provide oversight of
subject to public oversight both programmatically and financially? public broadcasters?
22 © 2015 Ipsos.
 EMIGRATION AND
MIGRATION

23 © 2015 Ipsos.
 Emigration is a concern across ethnic and age groups.

18-29 36% 34% 18% 11%

74%
Bosniak
25%

30-44 37% 35% 18% 9%

77%
Serb
23%
45-59 41% 33% 17% 9%
67%
Croat
32%
60+ 47% 33% 11% 8%
Very concerned Somewhat concerned
74% Concerned Not very concerned Not at all concerned
25% Unconcerned DR/RK

How concerned are you about emigration, and population flow out of BiH?
24 © 2015 Ipsos.
A strong majority believes that emigration from Bosnia-
Herzegovina is an existential threat.

66% 65%
Bosniak 20%
13%

74%
Serb 20%
21%
5%
12%
2% 55%
Croat 23%
20%
Very much Not significantly at the moment Not at all

In your opinion, does the population loss threaten the future viability of BiH?
25 © 2015 Ipsos.
Young adults are attracted to opportunities abroad.

BOSNIAK 35% 62%

NO

60%

SERB 43% 55%

38%
YES

18-29 61%
30-44 49%
45-59 34%
60+ 12% CROAT 35% 63%

Have you personally considered leaving BiH for better opportunities in another country?
26 © 2015 Ipsos.
Almost half of respondents have had a family member
emigrate.

NO BOSNIAK 43%
45% 20% 54%
14% 8% 6%

49%

SERB 37% 51% 16% 8% 18%43% 6%

48% YES

CROAT 27% 53% 23% 26% 43%

7% 8%

In the last 5 years, has a member of your extended family left BiH for better opportunities in another country?
27 © 2015 Ipsos.
Economic woes drive emigration. Bosnian Croats point to
corruption and nepotism as well.

Economic reasons 64%

BOSNIAK 65% 15% 12%
Corruption and
nepotism
16%

Unstable political
situation
11%

Lack of trust in
public institutions
5% SERB 71% 13% 7%

Status of my
ethnic group
2%

Other 2%

CROAT 50% 26% 13%

DK/REF 0%

What do you think is the primary motive that people have in leaving BiH?
28 © 2015 Ipsos.
Bosniaks view the state-level government as best able to
address emigration, more so than Bosnian Croats and Serbs.

State level
government
39%
BOSNIAK 45% 20% 14% 8% 6%
Political parties
and leaders
19%

International
community
14%

Entity level SERB 37% 16% 8% 18% 6%

governments
11%

Civil society
organizations
6%

Other 3%
CROAT 27% 23% 26% 7% 8%
DK/REF 8%

Which of the following bodies is in the best position to take measures to stem the flow of emigration?
29 © 2015 Ipsos.
 POLITICAL
PARTIES

30 © 2015 Ipsos.
Citizens see corruption beginning with the political parties.

81%
Agree
39% 42%
82%
Bosniak
15%
10% 90%
4% 5% Serb
5%

Completely agree Somewhat agree 64%

Croat
29%
Somewhat disagree Completely disagree

Many people believe that public corruption in BiH begins with the political parties, and that we need to reform the way parties work if we are going to address public
corruption in BiH. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this statement?
31 © 2015 Ipsos.
Greater transparency and regulation are leading priorities
in political party reform.
REDUCE OR ELIMINATE THE FUNDING OF
PARTIES THROUGH THE STATE AND ENTITY 44% 34% 13% 5% 5%
BUDGETS

IMPLEMENT AND ENFORCE

TRANSPARENCY REQUIREMENTS
REGARDING HOW PARTIES SPEND THEIR 36% 38% 15% 6% 5%
MONEY

REGULATE THE PARTY REGISTRATION

PROCESS IN ORDER TO REDUCE THE 32% 39% 18% 7% 5%
NUMBER OF PARTIES

INCREASE THE NUMBER OF SIGNATURES

REQUIRED TO GET ON THE BALLOT IN
ORDER TO REDUCE THE NUMBER OF 29% 40% 18% 8% 6%
PARTIES THAT APPEAR

Very effective Somewhat effective Not very effective Not at all effective DK/REF

Do you think the reform measures above would be very effective, somewhat effective, not very effective or not at all effective in reducing public corruption in BiH?
32 © 2015 Ipsos.
Public sector workers are particularly keen on stricter
regulation of parties.
Very effective + Somewhat effective
Regulate the party registration process 83%
in order to reduce the number of
parties 68%

Reduce or eliminate the funding of 88%

parties through the state and entity
budgets 76%

Increase the number of signatures

required to get on the ballot in order 84%
to reduce the number of parties that 66%
appear
Implement and enforce transparency 85%
requirements regarding how parties
spend their money 73%

Public sector households Other households

Do you think each would be very effective, somewhat effective, not very effective or not at all effective in reducing public corruption in BiH?
33 © 2015 Ipsos.
Nearly 4 in 10 would support a party committed to political
party reform.
NO

16%

Bosniak 44%

Serb 22%

MAYBE 43% 36% YES

Croat 19%

Would you be more likely to support a party that was committed to implementing reform measures like the ones discussed above?
34 © 2015 Ipsos.
 THIS PRESENTATION IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE GENEROUS SUPPORT OF THE AMERICAN
PEOPLE THROUGH THE UNITED STATES AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (USAID)
UNDER AWARD NO. AID-168-LA-17-00002. THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED HEREIN ARE THOSE OF
THE AUTHOR(S) AND DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VIEWS OF USAID OR THE UNITED
STATES GOVERNMENT.

35 © 2015 Ipsos.