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CHP 2 PDF
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CHAPTER 2
PROBABILITY
2-2. An event is a set of basic outcomes of an experiment. The union of two events is the set containing
all basic outcomes that are either in one event or in the other, or in both. The intersection of two
events is the set of basic outcomes that are members of both events.
2-3. The sample space is the universal set pertinent to a given experiment. It is the set of all possible
outcomes of an experiment.
2-4. The probability of an event is a measure of the likelihood of the occurrence of the event. When
sample points are equally likely, the probability of the event is the relative size of the set
comprising the event within the sample space.
2-5. The union G F is the event that the baby is either a girl, or is over 5 pounds (of either sex). The
intersection G F is the event that the baby is a girl over 5 pounds.
2-6. The union is the event that the player scores in the game with A, or in the game with B, or in both.
The intersection is the event that the player scores in both games.
2-7.
first toss Sample
Space
second toss > first
First Toss Second Toss > First
1 2
3
4
5
6
2 3
4
There are 36 possible outcomes tossing two dice. 5
There are 15 possible outcomes where the second 6
toss is greater than the first. 3 4
5
P(Second Toss > First) = 15/36 = 0.417 6
4 5
6
5 6
6 none
2-8. R T is the event that a randomly chosen person is exposed to the ad on the radio or the ad on
television, or both. R T is the event that a randomly chosen person is exposed to the ad on the
radio and the ad on television.
2-10. Since there are only 37 possible outcomes, the probability of winning is 1/37 = 0.027, better odds
(for the player) than the American version. Because of this, the house admission fee makes sense.
2.11. P(Public Sector) + P(Corporate Sector) – P(both sectors) = 0.08 + 0.06 - 0.02 = 0.12
2-14. Based on murder statistics for a given time period: total murders per 100,000 population.
2-18. P(first shopper detected) + P(second detected) - P(both detected) = 0.98 + 0.94 - 0.93 = 0.99
2-20. P(F) + P(>50) – P(F & >50) = 12/20 + 2/20 – 2/20 = 0.6
P(< 30) = 2/20 = 0.1
2-26. 25%: Reading the market shares as 2 %, 2%, and 4%, the answer is 2(2+2+4) = 25%
2-28. P(M | R) = 0.32 Given that P(M R) = 0.80 and P(R) = 0.4,
P(M | R) = P(M / R) P(R) = (0.80)(0.40) = 0.32
2-29. P(D | L) = 0.60 Given that P(L D) = 0.12 and P(L) = 0.20,
P(D | L) = P(L D) / P(L) = .12 / .20 = 0.60
2-30. 2.5% of the packages are late. Given that P(N | D) = 0.25 and P(D) = 0.10,
P(N D) = P(N | D) P(D) = (.25)(.10) = 0.025
2-32. 61.1% successfully completed. Given that P(A | H) = 0.94 and P(H) = 0.65,
P(A H) = P(A | H) P(H) = (.94)(.65) = 0.611
2-34. Let E,S denote the events: top Executive made over $1M, Shareholders made money, respectively.
Then:
a. P(E) = 3 / 10 = 0.30
b. P( S ) = 3 / 10 = 0.30
c. P(E | S ) = P(I S )/P( S ) = (2 / 10) / (3 / 10) = 2/3 = 0.667
d. P(S | E) = P(S E)/P(E) = (1/10)/ (3/10) = 1/3 = 0.333
Success Probs
1 0.65 Prob. of at least one success 0.9947
2 0.65
3 0.65
4 0.65
5 0.65
2 2 2 5 5 19 19
2-37. P(at least one job) = 1 – P(no jobs) = 1 – (by independence) =
3 3 3 6 6 20 20
0.8143
Success Probs
1 0.333 Prob. of at least one success 0.8142
2 0.333
3 0.333
4 0.167
5 0.167
6 0.05
7 0.05
2-39. P(increase sales all three countries) = P(increase sales in US) x P(increase sales Australia) x
P(increase sales in Japan)
P(increase sales all three countries) = (0.95)(0.90)(0.85) = 0.72675
2-41. P(at least one benefit) = 1 – P(no benefits) = 1 – (1 – 0.93)(1 – 0.55)(1 – 0.70) = 1 - 0.00945 =
0.99055
Success Probs
1 0.9 Prob. of at least one success 0.9900
2 0.75
3 0.6
Success Probs
1 0.7 Prob. of at least one success 0.9989
2 0.82
3 0.8
4 0.9
Success Probs
1 0.000096 Prob. of at least one success 0.0005
2 0.000096
3 0.000096
4 0.000096
5 0.000096
2-50. P(at least one drives home safely) = 1 – P(none drive home safely) = 1 – (0.50)(0.75)(0.80)
= 1 – 0.30 = 0.70
Success
Probs
1 0.5 Prob. of at least one success 0.7000
2 0.25
3 0.2
2-51. Since 1/4 of the items are in any particular quartile, and assuming independent random samples
with replacement so that all four choices have the same probability of being in the top
quartile, P(all four in top quartile) = (1/4)4 = 1/256 = 0.0039
P(at least one from bottom quartile) = 1 – P(all four from top three quartiles) =
1 – (3/4)4 = 175/256 = 0.684
Permutation
n r nPr
15 8 259459200
Combination
n r nCr
7 2 21
2.57. Only one possible combination of 3 elements chosen from the 14 parts consists of the 3 faulty ones.
So since any 3-element combination is equally likely to be picked, the probability
= 1 / (14! / 3!11!) = 1 / 364 = 0.00275
2-58. Only one of the combinations wins, so the probability of guessing it is 1 / (36! / 6!30!) = 1 /
1,947,792 = 0.000000513
2-59. How many ways of guessing a set of 6 of the numbers from 1 to 36 will have 5 correct and 1
wrong? If W = {WI, W2, - - -, W6} is the winning combination, then there are 6 choices of which
wi is not in the guessed combination, and 30 possible wrong guesses in place of wi (since the one
wrong guess can be any of the numbers from 1 to 36 that are not in W). So (6) (30) = 180 possible
combinations match exactly 5 of the winning numbers. Thus the probability of making such a
guess is = 180/1,947,792 = 0.0000924
2-60. Let T,R be the events: successful takeover, resignation of a board member.
P(T | R) = 0.65 P(T | R) = 0.30 P(R) = 0.70
P(T) = P(T | R)P(R) + P(T | R)P(R) = (.65)(.7) + (.30)(.30) = 0.545
2-61. Let A,S be the events: the drug is approved, the drug has side effects.
P(A | S) = 0.5 P(A | S ) = 0.95 P(S) = 0.20 P( S ) = 0.8
P(A) = P(A | S)P(S) + P(A | S )P( S ) = (.5)(.2) + (.95)(.80) = 0.86
2-62. Let D,B be the events: deal is concluded, competitor makes a bid.
P(D | B) = 0.25 P ( D | B ) = 0.45 P(B) = 0.40 P(B ) = 0.6
P(D) = P(D | B)P(B) + P(D | B)P( B) = (.25)(.4) + (.45)(.6) = 0.37
2-64. Let F,A be the events: ships sail full this summer, dollar appreciates against European currencies.
P(F | A) = 0.75 P ( F | A = 0.92 P(A) = 0.23
P(F) = P(F | A)P(A) + P(F | A)P(A) = (.75)(.23) + (.92)(.77) = 0.8809
2-65. Let O,G be the events: door should open, green light appears.
P(O) = 0.9 P(G | O) = 0.98 P(G | O ) = 0.05
P(G | O) P(O) (.98)(.9)
P(O | G) = =
P(G | O) P(O) + P(G | O )P( O ) (.98)(.9) + (.05)(.1)
= 0.9944
2-66. Let S,E be the events: the alarm sounds, there is an emergency situation.
P(E) = 0.004 P(S | E) = 0.95 P(S | E) = 0.02
P(S | E) P(E) (.95)(.004)
P(E | S) = =
P(S | E) P(E) + P(S | E)P(E) (.95)(.004) + (.02)(.996)
= 0.1602
2-67. Let I,H,M,L be the events: indicator rises, economic situation is high, medium, low.
P(I | H) = 0.6 P(I | M) = 0.3 P(I | L) = 0.1 P(H) = 0.15 P(M) = 0.7 P(L) = 0.15
P(H | I) = =
P(I | H) P(H) + P(I |M) P(M) + P(I | L) P(L) (.6)(.15)+ (.3)(.7)+ (.1)(.15)
= 0.2857
2-68. Let I,O be the events: test indicates oil, oil really is present
P(O) = 0.4 P(I | O) = 0.85 P(I | O) = 0.10
P(I | O) P(O) (.85)(.4)
P(O | I) = =
P(I | O) P(O) + P(I | O )P( O ) (.85)(.4) + (.10)(.6)
= 0.85
2-69. Let I,S be the events: test indicates success, product really is successful.
P(S) = 0.6 P(I | S) = 0.75 P(I | S ) = 0.15
P(I | S) P(S) (.75)(.6)
P(S | I) = =
P(I | S) P(S) + P(I | S )P( S ) (.75)(.6) + (.15)(.4)
= 0.8824
2.70. Let MM, FF, MF denote the events of reaching the two men, the two women, the married couple
(respectively). Let W be the event that a woman answers the door.
Then:
P(MF) = 1/3 P(W | MF) = ½ P(MF W) = 1/6
P(MM) = 1/3 P(W | MM) = 0 P(MM W) = 0
P(FF) = 1/3 P(W | FF) = 1 P(FF W) = 1/3
P(W) = ½
P(MF | W) = P(MF W)/P(W) = [ (1/6) / (1/2) ] = 1/3
2-76. Let C, J be the events: pass CPA exam, get job offer.
P(C) = 0.6 P(C J) = 0.4
P(J | C) = P(C J) / P(C) = 0.4/0.6 = 0.667
2-78. Let P, I be the events: production increases, interest rates decline more than half a point.
P(P | I) = 0.72 P(I) = 0.25
P(P I) = P(P | I ) P(I) = (.72)(.25) = 0.18
2-79. Let EQ, SD be the events: engineering quality, sporty design rated among most important features.
P(EQ) = 0.35 P(SD) = 0.50 P ( EQ SD ) = 0.25
(.35)(.50) = .175 .25, therefore the two events are not independent
Success
Probs
1 0.1 Prob. of at least one success 0.3880
2 0.15
3 0.2
2-82. Let S, R be the events: see the ad in the Wall Street Journal, remember it.
P(S) = 0.6 P(R | S) = 0.85
P ( S R ) = P(R | S) P(S) = (.85)(.6) = 0.51
51% of the people see and remember the advertisement
Success
Probs
1 0.3 Prob. of at least one success 0.5240
2 0.2
3 0.15
2-86. Let S, F, N, U be the events: subsidiary will be successful, political situation is favorable, neutral,
unfavorable.
P(S | F) = 0.55 P(S / N) = 0.3 P(S / U) = 0.1
P(F) = 0.6 P(N) = 0.2 P(U) = 0.2
P(S) = P(S | F) P(F) + P(S | N) P(N) + P(S | U)P(U)
= (0.55)(0.6) + (0.3)(0.2) + (0.1)(0.2) = 0.41
2-89.
a) P(assembly line worker) = P(skilled worker on assembly line) + P(unskilled worker on
assembly line) = (0.30)(0.15) + (0.70)(0.30) = 0.045 + 0.21 = 0.255
b) P(unskilled worker | assembly line worker) = 0.21 / 0.255 = 0.8235
Success
Probs
1 0.08 Prob. of at least one success 0.8113
2 0.08
3 0.08
4 0.08
5 0.08
6 0.08
7 0.08
8 0.08
9 0.08
10 0.08
11 0.08
12 0.08
13 0.08
14 0.08
15 0.08
16 0.08
17 0.08
18 0.08
19 0.08
20 0.08
2-92. Let A, F, So, J, Se be the events: student got an A, student is a freshman, sophomore,
junior, senior
P(Se | A)
P(A | Se) P(Se)
=
P(A | Se) P(Se) + P(A |F) P(F) + P(A | So) P(So) + P(A | J)P(J)
(.40)(.15)
= = 0.2034
(.40)(.15) + (.20)(.30) + (.30)(.35) + (.35)(.20)
2-93. Let S, C be the events: product is successful, competitor produces similar product.
P(S | C) = 0.67 P(S | C) = 0.42 P(C) = 0.35
P(S) = (.67)(.65) + (.42)(.35) = 0.5825
Success Probs
1 0.08 Prob. of at least one success 0.6617
2 0.08
3 0.08
4 0.08
5 0.08
6 0.08
7 0.08
8 0.08
9 0.08
10 0.08
11 0.08
12 0.08
13 0.08
2-95. Conceptually, in the hole-card game there is a card missing from the space of cards available for
play by the players-the hole card itself, which is removed from play at the beginning. So, for
example, if a player wants to make a draw and needs anything lower than a 4 in order not to go
over 21, she can't be sure of the probability that the next card is in fact smaller than a 4 (given the
cards already drawn and known to everyone), since the hole card may or may not be one of the
remaining cards smaller than 4. In other words, the probability space represented by the deck (in a
randomized order) used for the main play isn't exactly specified in the hole-card game (from any
player's point of view), while this space is always based on the full 52-card deck in the regular
game. Practically speaking, however, the probabilities involved vary only slightly, and their role in
the outcome of the game should be more or less unnoticeable when averaged over a span of games.
2-96. The probability of dying in a car crash in the U.S. is 40676 / 280000000 = 0.000145. The
probability of dying in a car crash in France is 0.000096 (from problem 2-49). The rate in the
U.S. is 1.5 times larger than the rate in France. The probability of not dying in a car crash in the
U.S. is 0.999855. The probability of dying in a car crash in the U.S. over the next 20 years is:
1- P(not dying) = 1 – (0.999855)20 = 0.002896.
2-97. Assume a large population so that the sampling can be considered as being done with replacement
(i.e., removing one item does not appreciably alter the remaining number of data points on either
side of the median). Then the first item drawn is on a particular side of the median, after which the
second item has a 1/2 probability of coming from the other side, since half of the points in the
population are on one side and half are on the other by the definition of median. Thus the
probability that the median will lie between the two points drawn is 1/2.
2-98. Making the same assumptions as in Problem 2-97, first count the number of ways that all n
elements drawn could lie on the same side of the median: since the choices are independent (this
being a random sample) and each of the n – 1 choices after the first has probability 1/2 of being on
the same side of the median as the first choice, the number of such ways is (1/2) n-1. The median will
lie somewhere between the smallest and largest values drawn exactly when the above situation does
not occur, so the desired probability is 1 – (1/2).
2-100. We need a method that is fair even if the caller knows which way the coin is biased (since otherwise
a single random call would still have probability 1/2 of matching the actual outcome). Here it is:
the caller pre-selects one of H-T or T-H as the guessed sequence of outcomes of two consecutive
flips. The coin is then flipped twice: if it results in two different outcomes, the caller attends the
meeting iff his or her choice of the order of outcomes was correct. But if the two flips have the
same outcome, then the coin is flipped twice again, repeated as needed until a pair of different
outcomes is obtained. Note that even if the coin is much more likely to come up heads (and even if
the caller knows this), the sequence H-T is equally likely as T-H: they both have probability P(H)
P(T) , since the two tosses are independent.
2-103. Since there are 38 members, a simple majority would be 20 votes. P(yes) = 0.25
P(pass) = 0.0002
P(Northwest compete successfully) = 0.00014
Conditional Probabilities
s1 s2 s3 s4s5s6 s7 s8
defective P(I1 | .) 0.08 0.05 0.04
good P(I2 | .) 0.92 0.95 0.96
P(I3 | .)
P(I4 | .)
P(I5 | .)
Total 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Joint Probabilities
s1 s2 s3 s4s5s6 s7 s8 Marginal
I1 0.0208 0.0190 0.0144 0.0542
I2 0.2392 0.3610 0.3456 0.9458
I3
I4
I5
Posterior Probabilities
s1 s2 s3 s4s5s6 s7 s8
P(. | I1) 0.3838 0.3506 0.2657
P(. | I2) 0.2529 0.3817 0.3654
P(. | I3)
P(. | I4)
P(. | I5)
2) Given the part is good, the probability that it is from machine B is 0.3817.
2) No. It is better to apply to company 6, since it has the same probability of success, but is
cheaper.
3) $1430. P(at least one offer) = 1 – P(no offers from 2,5,8,9) = 1 – (0.65)(0.82)(0.86)(0.86)
= 1 – (0.3942) = 0.6058
4) Through trial and error we arrive at a total cost of $2190 with a 0.7644 probability of getting
an offer from either company 2,3,6,7,8 or 9.
5) Through trial and error we arrive at a total cost of $1500 with a 0.6329 probability of getting
an offer from either company 2,7,8, 9 or 10.