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Guardian, Volcano, Bali, Eruption, Geology
Guardian, Volcano, Bali, Eruption, Geology
Guardian, Volcano, Bali, Eruption, Geology
Mount Agung’s rumblings have prompted a mass exodus, leaving the future even
more uncertain in a region so reliant on tourism
Tourist hotspots on the Indonesian holiday island of Bali have turned to virtual ghost towns as
residents and visitors clear out en masse in response to the looming threat of Mount Agung
erupting.
In Tulamben, a small fishing village on Bali’s east coast within the officially designated 7.5-mile
(12km) danger zone, all hotels have shut down and there was not a single tourist in sight on
Friday. A message on a blackboard outside an empty cafe said “pray for us”.
Bali has been on edge since last week, when the threat level from the volcano was raised to
maximum and hundreds of volcanic earthquakes began to rattle the area on a daily basis.
“Tulamben is empty now,” said Made Pasaka, a dive instructor, squinting as he looked up at
Bali’s highest peak. “The last time there was an eruption they said it lasted one year and we
can’t imagine that. If it is the same again what are we going to do? We need to have a plan B.”
About 20 minutes down the road in Amed, more than 180 hotels have emptied of tourists.
“Everything is cancelled … some people are saying maybe, but then when it comes to the day
they cancel, so there are no people,” said Sarah Laight, a British hotel owner.
In the past week several governments, including in the UK, Australia and Singapore have
issued travel advisories, cautioning travellers that volcanic activity could interfere with their
plans.
In the event of an eruption and the possible closure of Ngurah Rai airport due to resulting ash,
the authorities in Bali have prepared for flights to be diverted to 10 airports across Indonesia.
Laight estimated there were about 20 tourists left in Amed, a situation that would have a huge
impact on the local economy if it went on much longer.
For now, some in Amed are less worried about the volcano than they are about the bule
(foreigners) leaving. “The people from the whole of the Amed area that work in tourism, which is
thousands of people, probably from today forward they don’t have a paycheck,” Laight said.
While Bali’s busiest areas appear normal, Laight, whose hotel opened 14 years ago, was
worried about the impact of sudden mass unemployment.
“If some of these people get overwhelmed with the debt and the banks, I don’t know what the
banks will do for them, if they will hold the interest, or the payments,” she said. “Probably
everyone has a loan for a motorbike, all the drivers have car loans, and then they are going to
start getting stressed.”
At a community meeting in Amed on Friday people discussed a “what if” scenario – the
stockpiles of water, food, masks, medical and generators that might be needed in the event of
an eruption.
There are more than 120 active volcanoes in Indonesia, which perilously straddles the “ring of
fire” – an area along the basin of the Pacific Ocean prone to earthquakes and volcanic activity.
Volcanologists say the current seismological levels – the hundreds of internal earthquakes
occurring inside Agung each day – are unprecedented since Agung’s activity being measured
post-1963. The quakes, along with a new fracture in the crater that is emitting steam, indicate
rising levels of magmatic energy.
From the volcanology monitoring post in the village of Rendang, the seismologist Devy Kamil
Syahbana said the smoky vapour was likely to be groundwater heated by plates of magma
nearing Agung’s surface.
The volcanology post takes continuous readings from an analogue seismograph, the needle of
which twitches back and forth with every quake, as well as a digital equivalent, every six hours.
Data is also drawn from satellite images and tiltmeters.
Based on geological modelling, Syahbana explained, seismologists point to the possibility of
Mount Agung erupting at VEI3, or a volcanic explosivity index of three, with an opening eruption
height of more than six miles (10km). That, he said, pointing to a model drawn on his
whiteboard, would create a column that would then rain down dangerous pyroclastic flows.
It was also possible that Agung would not erupt but, at this point, the readings show the
probability of an eruption was higher than not, Syahbana said.
At the Rendang post, overlooking green ricefields and jungle leading to Agung’s cloud-covered
peak, the men of the village were nervous but still managed a joke. “The ones who can still run
are here,” said 42-year-old Nyoman Karyiarsa.
Summing up the mood, he said everyone in the village had a full tank of petrol in their bikes –
just in case.
Rendang, on the border of the danger zone, is technically safe but many women and children
have left. In the past week the number of refugees camped out in halls, temples and in the
homes of family and friends swelled to more than 136,000.
Many sleep at the camps at night and in the morning head to their homes, checking on their
livestock and other belongings.
Meanwhile, priests ride their motorbikes to the island’s “mother temple” of Besakih, on the
slopes of Agung, attempting to calm the rumbling mountain through prayer.
* The agency has also warned local communities of the possible dangers, including hot clouds
with a temperature of between 600-800C that might speed down Agung’s slope at up to
300kmh in the event of an eruption.
Bali volcano: will Mount Agung erupt and what happens if it does?
Potentially deadly pyroclastic flows, a briefly cooler climate and flight disruptions
are on the cards
An eruption at Bali’s Mount Agung volcano is imminent, according to experts.
Hundreds of tremors are being recorded at the site each day, and more than 75,000 people
evacuated in the past few days after local authorities declared a state of emergency.
But will it erupt? If it does, what’s likely to happen? And what will it mean for the tens of
thousands of Australians who plan to travel to the popular tourist destination in the next week?