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06velden PDF
06velden PDF
06velden PDF
T
HE DVORAK TECHNIQUE LEGACY.
tropical systems for more than three decades. The technique has likely
saved tens of thousands of lives in regions where over one billion people are
AFFILIATIONS : VELDEN AND O LANDER —CIMSS, University of A supplement to this article is available online (DOI:10.1175/BAMS-
Wisconsin—Madison, Madison, Wisconsin; HARPER—Systems 87-9-Velden)
Engineering Australia, Brisbane, Australia; WELLS —Santa Rita, CORRESPONDING AUTHOR : Christopher Velden, CIMSS,
Guam; B EVEN, AVILA , AND MAYFIELD —NOAA Tropical Prediction University of Wisconsin—Madison, 1225 W. Dayton St., Madison,
Center, Miami, Florida; ZEHR—NOAA/NESDIS/RAMM, Fort Col- WI 53706.
lins, Colorado; GUARD AND EDSON —NOAA/NWSFO, Tiyan, Guam; E-mail: chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu
L ANDER—University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam; B URTON —Bureau
The abstract for this article can be found in this issue, following the table
of Meteorology, Perth, Australia; TURK—NOAA/NESDIS Satellite
of contents.
Analysis Branch, Washington, D.C.; CAROFF —Meteo-France,
DOI:10.1175/BAMS-87-9-1195
RSMC-La Reunion, Reunion Island, France; KIKUCHI —RMSC-To-
kyo Typhoon Center, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan; In final form 19 May 2006
CHRISTIAN —Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, Hawaii; ©2006 American Meteorological Society
BYCHRISTOPHER VELDEN, BRUCE HARPER, FRANK WELLS, JOHN L. BEVEN II, R AY ZEHR, TIMOTHY OLANDER,
MAX MAYFIELD, CHARLES “CHIP” GUARD, MARK L ANDER, ROGER EDSON, LIXION AVILA, ANDREW BURTON,
MIKE TURK, AKIHIRO KIKUCHI, ADAM CHRISTIAN, PHILIPPE CAROFF, AND PAUL MCCRONE
This document is a supplement to “The Dvorak Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Technique: A Satellite-Based Method That
Has Endured for over 30 Years,” by Christopher Velden, Bruce Harper, Frank Wells, John L. Beven II, Ray Zehr,Timothy Olander,
Max Mayfield, Charles “Chip” Guard, Mark Lander, Roger Edson, Lixion Avila, Andrew Burton, Mike Turk, Akihiro Kikuchi, Adam
Christian, Philippe Caroff, and Paul McCrone (Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 1195–1210) • ©2006 American Meteorological Society
• Corresponding author: Christopher Velden, UW-CIMSS, 1225 W. Dayton St., Madison, WI 53706. • E-mail: chrisv@ssec.wisc.
edu • DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-87-9-Velden
T
he success of the Dvorak technique has been the scene type changes, and the lack of agreement
enhanced by numerous local modifications in between the Tnum derived from EMBC cloud tem-
the last quarter-century. We will now describe perature measurements and that obtained by applying
many of these modifications from around the world. the Dvorak development/decay model. Given that the
Each of the three Australian Tropical Cyclone Dvorak technique is otherwise noted for its internal
Warning Centers (TCWC) uses a different wind– consistency, this has lead forecasters to speculate on
pressure relationship. While they recognize there possible reasons for the poorer performance of the
is little scientific justification for this, the absence EMBC scene type in the Southern Hemisphere. Two
of aircraft reconnaissance data has made it difficult factors relating to tropopause temperatures have been
to resolve the differences. The Perth and Darwin identified. Tropical cyclones tend to occur at lower
TCWCs also use the pressure–wind relationships latitudes (higher tropopause) in the Southern Hemi-
in their Δp form. The changes in ambient pressure sphere, leading to colder cloud-top temperatures.
from one tropical cyclone (TC) to the next, and Additionally, the Southern Hemisphere Tropics have
the changes that occur as a TC moves into higher colder warm season tropopause temperatures than
latitudes are seen as small but significant sources of the Northern Hemisphere Tropics, particularly in the
variance that can be explicitly accounted for by this Australian region (Kossin and Velden 2004). In re-
simple modification. sponse to this, Australian forecasters are prepared to
A number of Australian TC forecasters have come weight the final estimate toward the model-expected
to the conclusion that the Embedded Center (EMBC) T number (MET) when using the EMBC pattern
scene type temperature ranges generally give higher- (Burton 2005).
than-warranted data tropical numbers (Tnums). In At the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA)
the absence of reconnaissance data this perception Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC)
has arisen from noting discontinuities in Tnums as in Tokyo, the original Dvorak (1982, 1984) relation-
S6 | SEPTEMBER 2006
ships were employed until 1990. Koba et al. (1990) it once a TC intersects a major landmass). Under
then used WestPac reconnaissance data (1981–86) to normal conditions, the Dvorak (1984) Step 9 holds
account for regional use of a 10-min-averaged wind, the CI constant for 12 hours during the weakening
and also amended the actual shape of the Dvorak stages (Fig. S1a). However at landfall, the actual TC
(1984) relationship. This modified relationship is intensity tends to decrease with the Tnum without a
used at JMA today. time lag, something Dvorak did not consider. Koba
JMA has also introduced a modification for TCs et al. (1989) analyzed the intensity trends of 13 TCs
making landfall (while there is no formal reference that made landfall in the Philippines and developed
by Dvorak in regards to applying his technique on additional rules to suit the observed conditions as
landfalling TCs, many tropical centers do not employ follows:
S8 | SEPTEMBER 2006
tral approach. Observations from passive microwave
sensors often reveal more accurate positions than just REFERENCES
visual or infrared imagery alone. At AFWA, for ex- Burton, A. D., 2005: Notes on the application of the
ample, the approach has been to take advantage of this Dvorak technique. Meteorological Note 225, Bureau of
multispectral information and incorporate it into the Meteorology, National Meteorological Library, 8 pp.
Dvorak intensity estimation process. Experience has Koba, H., S. Osano, T. Hagiwara, S. Akashi, and T. Kikuchi,
shown that if an eye feature is seen in microwave, the 1989: Determination of intensity of typhoons passing
pattern Tnum can be selected to reflect that occurrence, through the Philippine Islands (in Japanese). J. Meteor.
in lieu of the data Tnum, to indicate a greater intensity. Res., 41, 157–162.
On a broader scale, it must be noted that while Dvorak —, T. Hagiwara, S. Osano, and S. Akashi, 1990: Relationship
intensity estimates remain an important input to ar- between the CI-number and central pressure and maxi-
chived best-track analyses, other satellite-based sources mum wind speed in typhoons (in Japanese). J. Meteor.
are having an increasing influence. The optimal fusion Res., 42, 59–67.
of all-available and emerging satellite observations as Lushine, J., 1977: A relationship between weakening of TC
a direction for TC analysis and intensity estimation is cloud patterns and lessening of wind speed. NOAA Tech.
discussed further in the section on looking ahead. Memo NESS 85, 12 pp.