Perencanaan Bandar Udara

Pertemuan 9
Dr. Arief Setiawan

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 1

Literature
• Horonjeff, R., McKelvey F.X., Sproule, W.J., Young, S.B., 2010, Planning
and Design of Airports, Fifth Edition, The McGraw-Hill Companies,
Inc., United State of America.
• Sartono, W., Dewanti, Rahman, T., 2016, Bandar Udara, Pengenalan
dan Perancangan Geometrik Runway, Taxiway dan Apron, Edisi
Pertama, Gadjah Mada University Press, Yogyakarta.
• dan lain-lain

Canvas
https://canvas.instructure.com/enroll/BPXBD7

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 2

Cara bergabung di media Canvas sebagai student

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 3

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 4
Forecasting for Airport Planning

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 5

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 6
Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 7
Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 8
Forecasting for Airport Planning
• The type of forecast and the level of effort depend on the purpose for
which the forecast is being used. Forecasts are typically prepared for
short-, medium-, and long-term periods.
o Short-term forecasts, up to 5 years, are used to justify near-term
development and support operational planning and incremental
improvements or expansion of facilities.
o Medium-term forecasts, a 6- to 10-year time frame, and
o Long-term forecasts of 10 to 20 years are used to plan major capital
improvements, such as land acquisition, new runways and taxiways,
extensions of a runway, a new terminal, and ground access infrastructure.
Forecasts beyond 20 years are used to assess the need for additional airports
or other regional aviation facilities.

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 9

Forecasting Methods
• Time series method
• Time series analysis or extrapolation is based upon an examination of
the historical pattern of activity and assumes that those factors which
determine the variation of traffic in the past will continue to exhibit
similar relationships in the future.
• This technique utilizes times series type data and seeks to analyze the growth and growth
rates associated with a particular aviation activity.
• In practice, trends appear to develop in situations in which the growth rate of a
variable is stable in either absolute or percentage terms, there is a gradual increase or
decrease in growth rate, or there is a clear indication of market saturation trend over time.
Statistical techniques are used to assist in defining the reliability and the expected range in
the extrapolated trend. The analysis of the pattern of demand generally requires that upper
and lower bounds be placed upon the forecast and statistics are used to define the
confidence levels within which specific projections may be expected to be valid.
• From the variation in the trends and the upper and lower bounds placed on the forecast a
preferred forecast is usually developed. Quite often smoothing techniques are incorporated
into the forecast to eliminate short run, or seasonal, fluctuations in a pattern of activity which
otherwise demonstrates a trend or cyclical pattern in the long run.
Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 10
Forecasting Methods
• An illustration of the application of a trend line analysis to
forecast annual enplanements at an airport is shown in Example
Problem 5-1.
• Example Problem 5-1 The historical data shown in Table 5-1 have been
collected for the annual passenger enplanements in a region and one of the
commercial service airports in this region. It is necessary to prepare a forecast
of the annual passenger enplanements at the study airport in the design
years 2010 and 2015 using a trend line analysis. In applying the trend line
analysis to these data, a forecast technique of the annual enplanements at
the study airport will be made by forecasting the historical trend to the design
years. A plot of the trend in the annual passengers enplaned at the study
airport is given in Fig. 5-1. By extrapolating the trend into the future, an
estimate of the annual enplaned passengers at the study airport in 2010 is
found to be 2,100,000 passengers and in the year 2015 is found to be
2,900,000 passengers.

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 11

Forecasting Methods

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 12

Forecasting Methods
• The inability of time series techniques to show a causal relationship
between the dependent and independent variables is a serious
disadvantage. This is particularly true because, in the absence of such
relationships, the degree of uncertainty in such forecasts increases
with time. However, the time series method is useful for short-term
forecasts in which the response to changes in those factors which
stimulate the dependent variables is usually less dynamic. In those
cases where cyclic variations may be expected to occur, time series
methods may also be quite beneficial.

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 13

Forecasting Methods
• Market Share Method
• Forecasting techniques which are utilized to proportion a large-scale aviation activity
down to a local level are called market share, ratio, or top-down models. Inherent to
the use of such a method is the demonstration that the proportion of the large-scale
activity which can be assigned to the local level is a regular and predictable quantity.
This method has been the dominant technique for aviation demand forecasting at
the local level and its most common use is in the determination of the share of total
national traffic activity which will be captured by a particular region, traffic hub, or
airport. Historical data are examined to determine the ratio of local airport traffic to
total national traffic and the trends are ascertained. From exogenous sources the
projected levels of national activity are determined and these values are then
proportioned to the local airport based upon the observed and projected trends. The
ratio method is most commonly used in the development of microforecasts for
regional airport system plans or for airport master plans.

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 14

Forecasting Methods
• Market Share Method
• These methods are particularly useful in applications in which it can be
demonstrated that the market share is a regular, stable, or predictable parameter.
For example, the number of annual enplaned passengers at major air traffic hubs has
been shown to be a consistent and relatively stable factor and, therefore, this
method is often used to predict this parameter. Quite often the application of the
market share technique is a twostep process in which a ratio is applied to
disaggregate activity forecasts from a national to a regional level and then another
ratio is applied to apportion the regional share among the airports in the region. The
most compelling advantage of the market share method is its dependence on
existing data sources which minimizes forecasting cost. However, its principal
disadvantages lie in its dependence on the stability and predictability of the ratios
from which the forecasts are made and the uncertainty which may surround market
shares in specific applications. Several forecasts may be required under a differing set
of assumptions which are deemed appropriate to the determination of market
shares. An illustration of the application of a market share analysis is given in
Example Problem 5-2.

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 15

Forecasting Methods
• Example Problem 5-2 The historical data shown in Table 5-1 could also be
used to prepare a forecast of the annual passenger enplanements at the
study airport in the design years 2010 and 2015 using a market share
method. In applying the market share method to these data, a top-down
forecast technique will be used. The implicit assumption in such a
technique is that the same relationship between regional annual
enplanements and the annual enplanements at the study airport will be
maintained in the future. To prepare such a forecast, a projection of the
percentage of the regional annual enplanements captured at the study
airport is performed and then a forecast is made of the regional annual
enplanements. The study airport forecast percentage is applied to the
regional forecast to arrive at the forecast of the study airport annual
enplanements in the design years. A plot of the trend in the percentage of
regional annual passengers enplaned at the study airport is given in Fig. 5-
2.
Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 16
Forecasting Methods
• Because the variations shown in Fig. 5-2 often make it difficult to
determine if trends may exist, a smoothing function is often applied
to the data to assist in identifying trends which may not be obvious.
In this case, a smoothing of the data was obtained by computing a
running 3-year average of the data points. As is shown in Fig. 5-3, this
tends to smooth out the variations in the original data and more
readily identifies trends in these data.
• Though it may not be apparent in the original plot, the smoothing
mechanism does indicate a very slight upward trend in the
percentage of regional annual passengers captured by the study
airport. This trend is shown by the dashed line in Fig. 5-3. This trend
line, when projected to the design years, indicates a forecast of
Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 17
Forecasting Methods
• 3.70 percent in the year 2010 and 3.75 percent in the year 2015 as
the proportion of regional annual enplanements forecast to be
captured by the study airport. To complete the forecast by the market
share method, a determination of the regional annual enplanements
must be made. This is done by extrapolating the trend in regional
annual enplanements as shown in Fig. 5-4. This extrapolation
indicates regional annual enplanements in the year 2010 of
52,500,000 and in the year 2015 of 63,500,000. Therefore, the
forecast for the annual enplanements at the study airport becomes
0.0370 × 52,500,000 = 1,942,500 passengers in the year 2010 and
0.0375 × 63,500,000 = 2,381,250 passengers in the year 2015.
Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 18
Forecasting Methods

13,060,000 468,900 3.590352221

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 19

Forecasting Methods

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 20

Forecasting Methods
• Econometric Modeling
• The most sophisticated and complex technique in airport demand forecasting
is the use of econometric models. Trend extrapolation methods do not
explicitly examine the underlying relationships between the projected activity
descriptor and the many variables which affect its change. There are a wide
range of economic, social, market, and operational factors which affect
aviation. Therefore, to properly assess the impact of predicted changes in the
other sectors of society upon aviation demand and to investigate the effect of
alternative assumptions on aviation, it is often desirable to use mathematical
techniques to study the correlations between dependent and independent
variables. Econometric models which relate measures of aviation activity to
economic and social factors are extremely valuable techniques in forecasting
the future.

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 21

Forecasting Methods
• Econometric Modeling
• There are a great variety of techniques which
are used in econometric modeling for airport
planning. Classical trip generation and gravity
models are quite common in forecasting
passenger and aircraft traffic. Simple and
multiple regression analysis techniques, both
linear and nonlinear, are often applied to a
great variety of forecasting problems to
ascertain the relationships between the
dependent variables and such explanatory
variables as economic and population
growth, market factors, travel impedance,
and intermodal competition. The form of the
equations used in multiple linear regression
analysis is given in Eq. (5-1).

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 22

Forecasting Methods

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 23

Forecasting Methods
• There are many statistical tests which can be performed to determine the
validity of econometric models in accurately portraying historical
phenomena and to reliably project demand. Though the constants may be
found to define the general equation of the model, it is possible that the
range of error associated with the equation may be large or that the
explanatory variables chosen do not directly determine the variation in the
dependent variable.
• There may be a tendency when performing sophisticated mathematical
modeling to become disassociated from the significance of the results. It is
incumbent upon the analyst to consider the reasonableness as well as the
statistical significance of the model. Adequate consideration must be given
to the rationality of the functional form and variables chosen for the
analysis, and to the logic associated with calibrated constants.
Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 24
Forecasting Methods
• In many cases it is essential to determine the sensitivity of forecasts to
changes in the explanatory variables. If a particular design parameter being
forecast varies considerably with a change in a dependent variable, and
there is a significant degree of unreliability in this independent variable,
then a great deal of confidence cannot be placed upon the forecast and,
more importantly, the design based upon the forecast. Tests are usually
performed to determine the explanatory power of the independent
variables and their interrelationships. The analyst should carefully
investigate the sensitivity of projections within the expected variation of
explanatory variables. It is also possible that certain explanatory variables
do not significantly affect the modeling equation and the need for
collecting the data associated with these variables required for projections
could be eliminated. An illustration of the application of simple linear
regression analysis is presented in Example Problem 5-3.

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 25

Forecasting Methods
• Example Problem 5-3 The historical data shown in Table 5-1 could
also be used to prepare a forecast of the annual passenger
enplanements at the study airport in the design years 2010 and 2015
using a simple regression analysis. In applying simple regression
analysis to these data, let us assume that a relationship between the
study airport annual enplanements (ENP) and the study area
population (POP) is to be examined. Therefore, it is assumed that a
linear relationship of the form shown in Eq. (5-1) exists between the
variables.

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 26

Forecasting Methods

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 27

Forecasting Methods
• The coefficient of determination indicates that there is an extremely
good relationship between the annual enplanements at the study
airport and the study area population, that is, 98.4 percent of the
variation in the study airport annual enplanements is explained by
the variation in the study area population. The standard error of the
estimate, however, indicates that there is a large range of error
associated with forecasting with this equation, that is, there is a 68
percent probability that the forecast of annual enplanements at the
study airport will have an error range of ± 55,520.9 annual
enplanements. This may or may not be too high depending on the
level of annual operations forecast in the future and the sensitivity of
various components of the airport system to such variations.
Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 28
Forecasting Methods

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 29

Forecasting Methods
• Using a trend projection, it is forecast that the area population in the year
2010, as shown on Fig. 5-6, is expected to be 363,000. The forecast of the
annual enplanements at the airport in the year 2010 can be found by
substitution into the regression equation yielding 1,985,300 annual
enplanements. Similarly, if the forecast of the area population in the year
2015 is expected to be 410,000, then the forecast of the annual
enplanements at the airport in the year 2015 is found to be 2,636,900.
• Given the range in the standard error of the estimate, it could be expected
that in the year 2010 there is a probability of 68 percent that the forecast
could range between 1,985,300 ± 55,500, or from 1,929,800 to 2,040,800
annual enplanements about 68 percent of the time. Similarly, it could be
expected that in the year 2015 the forecast could range between 2,636,900
± 55,500, or from 2,581,900 to 2,692,400. It is likely that this range in the
forecasts is acceptable since it represents about a 2 to 3 percent error.

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 30

Forecasting Methods

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 31

Forecasting Methods
• It is interesting to compare the results found by the three different
techniques used in Example Problems 5-1 through 5-3. The results
compare very well and it gives one some degree of confidence in the
results when the three forecasts compare well. This is called
redundancy in forecasting. Based upon the results found in these
example problems, a preferred forecast would be developed. If there
is no reason to suspect that one technique is better than another,
then a simple average might be used to develop the preferred
forecast. If this is done in these examples, then the preferred forecast
for the year 2010 is about 2,000,000 annual enplaned passengers and
in the year 2015 is 2,600,000 annual enplaned passengers.
Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 32
Forecasting Methods
• The Federal Aviation Administration utilizes econometric models to
determine national forecasts of U.S. aviation demand. The FAA
Aerospace Forecast provides a 12-year outlook and view of the
immediate future for aviation. It is updated in March each year and
includes aggregate level forecasts of the following:
• Passenger enplanements, revenue passenger miles, fleet, and hours flown for
large carriers and regional commuters
• Cargo revenue ton miles and cargo fleet for large air carriers
• Fleet, hours, and pilots for general aviation
• Activity forecasts for FAA and contract towers by major user category

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 33

Forecasting Methods
• The FAA Long Range Aerospace Forecasts is a long range forecast that
extends the 12-year forecast to a longer time horizon, typically for a period
of 25 years. This forecast contains projections of aircraft, fleet and hours,
air carrier and regional/commuter passenger enplanements, air cargo
freight revenue ton-miles, pilots, and FAA workload measures.
• The success in applying mathematical modeling techniques to ascertain the
level of future activity depends to a large extent on the certainty associated
with the independent variables and the relative influence of these variables
on the dependent variable. Simple and multiple regression analysis
methods are often applied to a great variety of forecasting problems to
determine the relationships between transport related variables and such
explanatory factors as economic and population growth, market factors,
travel impedance, and competitive forces. Table 5-2 lists many of the
variables required for various purposes in aviation planning studies.

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 34

Forecasting Requirements and Applications
• The specific forecasting needs depend on the nature and scope of the
study being undertaken. The requirements for a state aviation system
plan are very different than those required for an airport master plan.
Facility planning requires projections of the parameters which
determine physical design whereas financial planning requires
projections of the cost elements and revenue sources associated with
physical development. This section outlines the general forecasting
requirements for various types of airport studies and discusses the
more common methodologies used to arrive at these requirements.

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 35

Forecasting
Requirements and
Applications

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 36

Contoh:
model ekonometri lalu lintas penumpang udara domestik
• Data Historis

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 37

model ekonometri lalu lintas penumpang udara domestik

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 38

 model ekonometri lalu lintas penumpang udara
• Prediksi lalu lintas domestik

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 39

 model ekonometri lalu lintas penumpang udara
• Prediksi lalu lintas internasional
• Market share  domestic : internasional = 84%:16% (data historis 2005-2009)

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 40

model ekonometri lalu lintas penumpang udara
Kontribusi lalu lintas penumpang udara domestik di Bali terhadap permintaan nasional

Kontribusi lalu lintas penumpang udara internasional di Bali terhadap permintaan nasional
internasional
internasional

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 41

 model ekonometri lalu lintas penumpang udara
• Prediksi permintaan lalu lintas di Bandara Ngurah Rai

49,7-50,5%
• Prediksi lalu lintas penumpang berangkat dari Bandara Ngurah Rai

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 42

 Thank You
see you…

Dr. Arief Setiawan, Februari 2020 43